2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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<!--
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2018-03-27 17:39:08 +00:00
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THE WISDOM AND/OR MADNESS OF CROWDS
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by Nicky Case | apr 2018
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2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
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- - - - - - - - - - -
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FAN TRANSLATION GUIDE:
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https://github.com/ncase/crowds#how-to-translate-this-thing
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Hello fan-translaters! Thank you so, so much for your help.
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I hope you know what you've gotten yourself into.
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There's about 4000 WORDS to translate, including
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the Bonus Boxes and References.
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To make things easier (or less painful, anyway) I've marked
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what needs to be translated and how with big "TRANSLATE" comments.
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Ctrl+F for "TRANSLATE" in uppercase to see what needs to be translated!
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BUT BEFORE YOU TRANSLATE ANYTHING, DO THIS:
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1) Look up the two-letter code of the language you're translating to:
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ISO_639-1_codes
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2) *COPY* index.html, and rename it [two-letter-code].html
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For example: de.html, ar.html, zh.html, etc...
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3) Translate *THAT* page. Do NOT modify the original index.html!
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And once you're done, go to "translations.txt", and follow the
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instructions there to let this game "know" your translation exists.
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Good luck, and thanks again!
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<3,
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~ Nicky Case
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2018-03-27 17:39:08 +00:00
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2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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-->
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2018-04-25 18:46:26 +00:00
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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<html>
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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<head>
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2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
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<!-- Meta Info -->
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<title>The Wisdom and/or Madness of Crowds</title> <!-- <title>(TRANSLATE this part only)</title> -->
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<meta name="description" content="an interactive guide to human networks"/> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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<meta content="text/html;charset=utf-8" http-equiv="Content-Type">
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<meta content="utf-8" http-equiv="encoding">
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<meta charset="utf-8">
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<link rel="icon" type="image/png" href="favicon.png">
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2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
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<!-- Sharing -->
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<meta itemprop="name" content="The Wisdom and/or Madness of Crowds"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta itemprop="description" content="an interactive guide to human networks"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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<meta itemprop="image" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/social/thumbnail.png">
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2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
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<meta name="twitter:title" content="The Wisdom and/or Madness of Crowds"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta name="twitter:description" content="an interactive guide to human networks"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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<meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image">
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<meta name="twitter:site" content="@ncasenmare">
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<meta name="twitter:creator" content="@ncasenmare">
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<meta name="twitter:image" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/social/thumbnail.png">
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2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
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<meta property="og:title" content="The Wisdom and/or Madness of Crowds"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta property="og:description" content="an interactive guide to human networks"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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<meta property="og:type" content="website">
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<meta property="og:url" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/">
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<meta property="og:image" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/social/thumbnail.png">
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<!-- Styles -->
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<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="css/index.css">
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</head>
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<body>
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<!-- THE SLIDESHOW -->
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<div id="container">
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<!-- Simulation(s) in background -->
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<div id="simulations_container">
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<div id="simulations"></div>
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</div>
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2018-04-02 17:43:20 +00:00
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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<!-- Slideshow: words & buttons -->
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<div id="slideshow_container">
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<div id="slideshow"></div>
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</div>
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2018-04-02 17:43:20 +00:00
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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<!-- Scratch Transition -->
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2018-04-24 18:12:38 +00:00
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<canvas id="scratch" width="711" height="400"></canvas>
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2018-04-02 17:43:20 +00:00
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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<!-- Skip -->
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2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
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<div id="skip">skip ></div> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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2018-04-18 21:00:04 +00:00
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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<!-- Modal -->
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<div id="modal_container">
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<div id="modal_bg"></div>
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<div id="modal">
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<div id="modal_close">⨯</div>
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<div id="modal_content_container">
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<div id="modal_content"></div>
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2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
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</div>
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</div>
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2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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</div>
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2018-04-04 15:57:35 +00:00
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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</div>
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<!-- Navigation: Audio, Contents, Share, Translations -->
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<div id="navigation_container">
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<div id="sound" mute="no">
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<div id="sound_icon"></div>
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2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
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<span id="sound_on">ON</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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<span id="sound_off">OFF</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</div>
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<div id="sharing">
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<a id="fb" target="_blank" href="TODO"></a>
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<a id="tw" target="_blank" href="TODO"></a>
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<a id="em" target="_blank" href="TODO"></a>
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<span id="share_title">
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The Wisdom and/or Madness of Crowds <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</span>
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<span id="share_desc">
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<!-- TRANSLATOR: keep this on ONE LINE or the social sharing will break! -->
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Why do some groups of people act smart, dumb, kind, cruel? An interactive guide to human networks: <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</span>
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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</div>
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<div id="navigation">
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2018-04-04 15:57:35 +00:00
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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<!-- The chapters -->
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2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
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<!-- TRANSLATE all the Chapter names! -->
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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<div chapter="Introduction">
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<span>0</span>
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<span>0. Introduction</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Networks">
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<span>1</span>
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<span>1. Connections</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Simple">
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<span>2</span>
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<span>2. Contagions</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Complex">
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<span>3</span>
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<span>3. Complex Contagions</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="BB">
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<span>4</span>
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2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
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<span>4. Bonding & Bridging</span> <!-- note: & is html for the "and" sign -->
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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</div>
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<div chapter="SmallWorld">
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<span>5</span>
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<span>5. It's A Small World</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Conclusion">
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<span>6</span>
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<span>6. In Conclusion...</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Credits">
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<span>7</span>
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<span>7. Credits</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Sandbox">
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<span>★</span>
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<span>★ Sandbox Mode! ★</span>
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</div>
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2018-04-04 15:57:35 +00:00
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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<!-- A divider -->
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<span class="nav_divider"></span>
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<!-- Bonus Notes & References -->
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<div modal="bonus">
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<span>?</span>
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2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
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<span>Bonus Boxes!</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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</div>
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<div modal="references">
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<span style="margin-top: 7px; font-size: 35px;">*</span>
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2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
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<span>Links & References</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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</div>
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<div modal="translations">
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<span style="margin-top:5px; position:relative;"><span style="
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position: absolute;
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top: -8px;
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left: 6px;
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">A</span><span style="
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position: absolute;
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font-size: 16px;
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top: -1px;
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left: 16px;
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">あ</span></span>
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2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
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<span>Translations</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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2018-04-04 15:57:35 +00:00
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</div>
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2018-03-27 17:39:08 +00:00
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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<!-- The hover bubble -->
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<span id="nav_bubble"></span>
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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</div>
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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<div id="translations"></div>
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<div id="social"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- The Pencil -->
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2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
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<div id="pencil_container">
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<canvas id="pencil"></canvas>
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</div>
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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<!-- Preloader -->
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<div id="pre_preloader">
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2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
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<div>loading...</div> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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</div>
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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</body>
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2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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</html>
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2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
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<!-- - - - - -->
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<!-- SCRIPTS -->
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<!-- - - - - -->
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<script src="js/lib/helpers.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/minpubsub.src.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/howler.min.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/Key.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/Mouse.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/Sprite.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Slideshow.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Pencil.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Boxes.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Scratch.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Navigation.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/SimUI.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/SandboxUI.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Modal.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Preloader.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Translations.js"></script>
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<script src="js/sim/Peep.js"></script>
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<script src="js/sim/Connection.js"></script>
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<script src="js/sim/ConnectorCutter.js"></script>
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<script src="js/sim/Simulations.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/A_Preloader.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/B_Introduction.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/C_Networks.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/D_Simple_Contagion.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/E_Complex_Contagion.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/F_Bonding_And_Bridging.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/G_Small_World.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/H_Conclusion.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/I_Credits.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/J_Sandbox.js"></script>
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<script src="js/main.js"></script>
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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<!-- THE SLIDESHOW'S WORDS -->
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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2018-03-27 17:39:08 +00:00
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2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
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<!--
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This is the bulk of what you need to TRANSLATE!
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Translate just the text that's within the <tag></tags>
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If you're using a code editor (like Sublime Text https://www.sublimetext.com/),
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it should automatically highlight what the text is (usually in white).
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-->
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2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
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<span style="display:none">
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<!-- Preloader -->
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<words id="preloader_title">
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<div style="font-size: 30px;">
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<span>the</span>
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<br>
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<span style="font-size: 60px;letter-spacing: 4px;">WISDOM</span>
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<span style="position:relative;top: -10px;">and/or</span>
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<span style="font-size: 60px;">MADNESS</span>
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<br>
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<span style="position: relative;top: -11px;">of</span>
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<br>
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2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
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<span style="font-size: 100px;line-height: 80px;position: relative;top: -15px; display:block;">CROWDS</span>
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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</div>
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<div style="color:#999">
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2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
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<!-- TRANSLATE note: comment out the line below... -->
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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playing time: 30 min • by nicky case, april 2018
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2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
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<!-- ...and UN-comment + TRANSLATE this line! -->
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<!-- by nicky case • translated by [your name] • <a href='/'>original in English</a> -->
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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</div>
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2018-03-27 17:39:08 +00:00
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-03-27 17:39:08 +00:00
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<words id="preloader_button">
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<next></next>
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-03-28 14:57:19 +00:00
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<words id="preloader_loading">
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2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
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loading...
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-03-27 17:39:08 +00:00
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<words id="preloader_play">
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2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
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let's play! →
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<!-- Introduction -->
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2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
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<!--
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TRANSLATE note: to make the text stay in a circle, I added lots of <br> breaks.
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You may have to re-arrange the <br>'s in order to do your translation.
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It shouldn't look too bad if they're slightly off, though!
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Also, <b></b> bolds a word/phrase, and <i></i> italicizes a word/phrase.
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And → ← ↓ ↑ are pointy arrows.
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-->
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<words id="intro">
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2018-04-11 20:44:12 +00:00
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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<br><br>
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2018-04-11 20:44:12 +00:00
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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Sir Isaac Newton was pretty sure he was a
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<br>
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smart cookie. I mean, after inventing calculus and
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<br>
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a theory of gravity, he should be clever enough to do
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<br>
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some financial investing, right? Anyway, long story short, he
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<br>
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lost $4,600,000 (in today's dollars) in the nationwide
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<br>
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speculation frenzy known as the South Sea Bubble of 1720.
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2018-04-11 20:44:12 +00:00
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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<br><br>
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2018-04-11 20:44:12 +00:00
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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As Mr. Newton later said: <i>“I can calculate the motion of
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<br>
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heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.”</i>
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2018-04-11 20:44:12 +00:00
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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<next>yeah sucks for him →</next>
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2018-04-11 20:44:12 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<words id="intro_2">
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2018-04-11 20:44:12 +00:00
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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<div style="height:0.5em"></div>
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2018-04-11 20:44:12 +00:00
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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Of course, that's not the only
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<br>
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time markets, institutions, or entire
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<br>
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democracies went haywire — the <i>madness</i> of
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<br>
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crowds. And yet, just when you lose hope in humanity,
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<br>
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you see citizens coordinating to rescue each other in
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<br>
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hurricanes, communities creating solutions to problems,
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<br>
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people fighting for a better world — the <i>wisdom</i> of crowds!
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<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
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2018-04-11 20:44:12 +00:00
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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<b>But <i>why</i> do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom?</b> No theory
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<br>
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can explain everything, but I think a new field of study,
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<br>
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<b>network science</b>, can guide us! And its core idea is this: to
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<br>
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understand crowds, we should look not at the <i>individual
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<br>
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people</i>, but at...
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2018-04-11 20:44:12 +00:00
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2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
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<next>...their <i>connections.</i> →</next>
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2018-04-11 20:44:12 +00:00
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2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<!-- Networks -->
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<words id="networks_tutorial_start">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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<b>Let's draw a network!</b>
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Each connection represents a friendship between two people:
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2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<words id="networks_tutorial_connect">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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draw to connect
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2018-03-28 17:12:05 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<words id="networks_tutorial_disconnect">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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scratch to disconnect
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2018-03-28 17:12:05 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<words id="networks_tutorial_end">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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2018-04-18 18:02:27 +00:00
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when you're done doodling and playing around,
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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<next wiggle>let's continue →</next>
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2018-03-28 17:12:05 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<words id="networks_threshold">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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2018-04-18 20:52:50 +00:00
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Now, social connections are for more than just making pretty pictures.
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People <i>look to</i> their social connections to understand their world.
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For example, people look to their peers to
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2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
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find out <b>what % of their friends</b> (not counting themselves) are,
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2018-04-16 19:49:56 +00:00
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say, binge-drinkers. <icon yellow></icon>
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<words id="networks_threshold_instruction">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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<b>Draw/erase connections, and see what happens! →</b>
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<words id="networks_threshold_end">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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<next>cool, got it</next>
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<words id="networks_pre_puzzle">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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However, networks can <i>fool</i> people.
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2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
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Just like how the earth seems flat because we're on it,
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people may get wrong ideas about society because they're <i>in</i> it.
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
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<bon id="connections"></bon>
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<br>
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
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For example, a 1991 study<ref id="drunk"></ref> showed that
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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“virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did.”
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But that seems impossible!
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How can that be?
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Well, you're about to invent the answer yourself, by drawing a network.
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It's time to...
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<next>FOOL EVERYONE →</next>
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
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<words id="optional_reading">
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<div style="position:absolute; top:-5px;">
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2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
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<i>optional</i> extra bonus notes! ↑
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2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
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</div>
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<div style="position:absolute; left:216px; top:10px;">
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↓ links and references
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</div>
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</words>
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<words id="networks_puzzle">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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<b style="font-size:2em">PUZZLE TIME!</b>
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<br>
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Fool <i>everyone</i> into thinking
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2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
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the majority of their friends (50% threshold) are binge-drinkers <icon yellow></icon>
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(even though binge-drinkers are outnumbered 2-to-1!)
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<words id="networks_puzzle_metric">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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<b>FOOLED:</b>
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</words>
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<words id="networks_puzzle_metric_2">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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out of 9 people
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<words id="networks_puzzle_end">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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Congrats! You manipulated a group of students into believing
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in the prevalance of an incredibly unhealthy social norm! Good going!
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<next wiggle>...uh. thanks?</next>
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<words id="networks_post_puzzle">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
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What you just created is called The Majority Illusion<ref id="majority"></ref>,
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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which also explains why people think their political views are consensus,
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or why extremism seems more common than it actually is.
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<i>Madness.</i>
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2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
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<bon id="books"></bon>
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2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
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2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
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But people don't just passively <i>observe</i> others' ideas and behaviors,
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they actively <i>copy</i> them.
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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So now, let's look at something network scientists call...
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2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
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<next>“Contagions!” →</next>
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<!-- Simple Contagions -->
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<words id="simple_simple">
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2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
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<i>Let's put aside the "threshold" thing for now.</i>
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Below: we have a person <icon red></icon> with some information.
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2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
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Some <i>mis</i>information. "Fake news", as the cool kids say.
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2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
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And every day, that person spreads the rumor, like a virus, to their friends.
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2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
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And they spread it to <i>their</i> friends. And so on.
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2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
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<br>
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2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
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<b>
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Start the simulation! ↓
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2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
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(p.s: you can't draw <i>while</i> the sim's running)
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2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
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</b>
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2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<words id="simple_simple_2">
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2018-04-18 15:25:41 +00:00
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Note: despite the negative name, "contagions" can be good or bad (or neutral or ambiguous).
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2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
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There's strong statistical evidence<ref id="contagion"></ref> that
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2018-04-18 15:25:41 +00:00
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smoking, health, happiness, voting patterns, and cooperation levels
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2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
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are all "contagious" --
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2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
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and even some evidence that suicides<ref id="suicides"></ref> and mass shootings<ref id="shootings"></ref> are, too.
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2018-04-03 17:32:26 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<words id="simple_simple_end">
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2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
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<next wiggle>well that's depressing →</next>
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2018-04-03 17:32:26 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<words id="simple_cascade">
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2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
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Indeed it is.
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Anyway, <b>PUZZLE TIME!</b>
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<br>
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Draw a network & run the simulation,
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so that <i>everyone</i> gets infected with the "contagion".
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2018-04-20 18:47:58 +00:00
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<br>
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2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
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(new rule: you can't cut the <i>thick</i> connections)
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2018-04-03 17:32:26 +00:00
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</words>
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|
2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
|
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|
<words id="simple_cascade_end">
|
2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
|
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|
|
<next wiggle>fan-flipping-tastic →</next>
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|
</words>
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|
2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
|
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<words id="simple_post_cascade">
|
2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
|
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|
|
This madness-spreading is called an <b>"information cascade"</b>.
|
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|
Mr. Newton fell for such a cascade in 1720.
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
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|
The world's financial institutions fell for such a cascade in 2008.<ref id="subprime"></ref>
|
2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
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|
<br><br>
|
|
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|
However: <i>this simulation is wrong.</i>
|
2018-04-18 15:25:41 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Most ideas <i>don't</i> spread like viruses.
|
2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
|
|
|
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For many beliefs and behaviors, you need to be "exposed" to the contagion more than just once
|
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in order to be "infected".
|
|
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So, network scientists have come up with a new, better way to
|
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describe how ideas/behaviors spread, and they call it...
|
2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
|
|
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|
<next wiggle>“<i>Complex</i> Contagions!” →</next>
|
2018-04-03 17:32:26 +00:00
|
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|
</words>
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|
2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
|
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|
|
<!-- Complex Contagions -->
|
2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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|
2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
|
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<words id="complex_complex">
|
2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
|
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|
2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
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Let's bring back "thresholds", and the binge-drinking <icon yellow></icon> example!
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When you played with this the first time, people didn't change their behavior.
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<br><br>
|
2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
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|
2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
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Now, let's simulate what happens if people <i>do</i> start drinking
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<i>when 50%+ of their friends do!</i>
|
2018-04-20 18:47:58 +00:00
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<b>Before you start the sim, ask yourself what you think <i>should</i> happen.</b>
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<br><br>
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<b>Now, run the sim, and see what actually happens! →</b>
|
2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
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|
2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_complex_2">
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
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<span style="line-height:1.3em; display:block;">
|
2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
|
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|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
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Unlike our earlier "fake news" <icon red></icon> contagion,
|
2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
|
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this contagion <icon yellow></icon> does <i>not</i> spread to everyone!
|
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The first few people get "infected", because although they're only exposed to one
|
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binge-drinker, that binge-drinker is 50% of their friends. (yeah, they're lonely)
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In contrast, the person near the end of the chain did <i>not</i> get "infected",
|
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because while they were exposed to a binge-drinking friend,
|
2018-04-18 15:25:41 +00:00
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they did not pass the 50%+ threshold.
|
2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
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|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
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|
<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
|
2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
|
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|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
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|
The <i>relative</i> % of "infected" friends matters.
|
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|
<i>That's</i> the difference between the <b>complex contagion</b> theory,
|
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|
and our naive it-spreads-like-a-virus <b>simple contagion</b> theory.
|
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(you could say "simple contagions" are just contagions with a "more than 0%" infection threshold)
|
2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
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|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
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|
<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
|
2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
|
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|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
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|
However, contagions aren't necessarily bad —
|
|
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|
so enough about crowd <i>madness</i>, what about...
|
2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
|
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|
|
<next>...crowd <i>wisdom?</i></next>
|
2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
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|
2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
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</span>
|
2018-04-03 17:32:26 +00:00
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</words>
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|
2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
|
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|
<words id="complex_complex_3">
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|
Here, we have a person <icon blue></icon> who volunteers to... I don't know,
|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
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rescue people in hurricanes, or tutor underprivileged kids in their local community, or something cool like that.
|
2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
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Point is, it's a "good" complex contagion.
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|
This time, though, let's say the threshold is only 25% —
|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
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|
people are willing to volunteer, but only if 25% or more of their friends do so, too.
|
2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
|
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Hey, goodwill needs a bit of social encouragement.
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|
<br><br>
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|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
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|
<b>← Get everyone "infected" with the good vibes!</b>
|
2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
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</words>
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|
<words id="complex_complex_3_end">
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|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<b>NOTE:</b> Volunteering is just <i>one</i> of many complex contagions!
|
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|
Others include: voter turnout, lifestyle habits,
|
|
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|
|
career choices, challenging your beliefs,
|
|
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|
|
taking time to understand a issue deeply — basically, anything
|
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|
that needs more than one "exposure", and some social encouragement.
|
2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
|
|
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|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
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|
(So what's an example of a <i>simple</i> contagion, that only needs one exposure to "infect" someone?
|
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|
Usually: bits of trivia, like, "the possum has 13 nipples")
|
2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
|
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|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Now, to <i>really</i> show the power and weirdness of complex contagions, let's revisit...
|
2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<next>...an earlier puzzle →</next>
|
2018-04-12 19:50:59 +00:00
|
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|
|
2018-04-03 17:32:26 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
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|
2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
|
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|
|
<words id="complex_cascade">
|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Remember this? This time, with a <i>complex</i> contagion <icon blue></icon>, it'll be a bit tougher...
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<b>Try to "infect" everyone with complex wisdom! ↓</b>
|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
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|
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|
|
<words id="complex_cascade_feel_free">
|
2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
(feel free to just hit 'start' and <i>try</i> as many solutions as you want)
|
2018-04-03 17:32:26 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<words id="complex_cascade_end">
|
2018-04-12 21:22:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<next wiggle>HOT DANG →</next>
|
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<words id="complex_post_cascade">
|
2018-04-18 20:52:50 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Now, you may think that you just need to keep adding connections to spread any contagion,
|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
|
|
|
"complex" or "simple", good or bad, wise or mad.
|
|
|
|
|
But is that really so? Well, let's revisit...
|
2018-04-12 21:22:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<words id="complex_post_cascade_end">
|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<next wiggle>...another earlier puzzle →</next>
|
2018-04-03 17:32:26 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<words id="complex_prevent">
|
2018-04-18 20:52:50 +00:00
|
|
|
|
If you hit "start" below, the complex contagion <icon blue></icon> will just spread to everyone.
|
2018-04-12 21:22:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
No surprise there.
|
2018-04-18 20:52:50 +00:00
|
|
|
|
But now, let's do the <i>opposite</i> of everything we've done before:
|
2018-04-12 21:22:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<b>draw a network to <i>prevent</i> the contagion from spreading to everyone! ↓</b>
|
2018-04-03 17:32:26 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<words id="complex_prevent_2">
|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
|
|
|
You see?
|
|
|
|
|
While more connections will always help the spread of <i>simple</i> ideas,
|
|
|
|
|
<b>more connections can hurt the spread of <i>complex</i> ideas!</b>
|
|
|
|
|
(makes you wonder about the internet, hm?)
|
2018-04-13 17:42:02 +00:00
|
|
|
|
And this isn't just a theoretical problem. This can be a matter of life...
|
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<words id="complex_prevent_end">
|
2018-04-13 17:42:02 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<next wiggle>...or death. →</next>
|
2018-04-12 21:22:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<words id="complex_groupthink">
|
2018-04-12 21:22:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-13 17:42:02 +00:00
|
|
|
|
The people at NASA were smart cookies.
|
|
|
|
|
I mean, they'd used Newton's theories to get us to the moon.
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, long story short, in 1986,
|
|
|
|
|
<i>despite warnings from the engineers</i>,
|
|
|
|
|
they launched the <i>Challenger</i>,
|
|
|
|
|
which blew up and killed 7 people.
|
|
|
|
|
The immediate cause:
|
|
|
|
|
it was too cold that morning.
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
2018-04-13 17:42:02 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The less immediate cause: the managers ignored the engineers' warnings.
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Why? Because of <b>groupthink</b><ref id="groupthink"></ref>.
|
2018-04-13 17:42:02 +00:00
|
|
|
|
When a group is <i>too</i> closely knit, (as they tend to be at the top of institutions)
|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
|
|
|
they become resistant to complex ideas that challenge their beliefs, or ego.
|
2018-04-13 17:42:02 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
2018-04-13 17:42:02 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
|
|
|
So, that's how institutions can fall to crowd madness.
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
|
|
|
But how can we "design" for crowd <i>wisdom?</i>
|
|
|
|
|
In short, two words:
|
2018-04-12 21:22:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<next>Bonding & Bridging →</next>
|
2018-04-12 21:22:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-03 17:32:26 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<!-- Bonding & Bridging -->
|
2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<words id="bonding_1">
|
|
|
|
|
← Too few connections, and an idea can't spread.
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
Too many connections, and you get groupthink. →
|
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<words id="bonding_2">
|
|
|
|
|
<b>
|
2018-04-18 18:02:27 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Draw a group that hits the sweet spot:
|
|
|
|
|
just connected enough to spread a complex idea!
|
|
|
|
|
↓
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</b>
|
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<words id="bonding_end">
|
2018-04-18 20:52:50 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Simple enough!
|
|
|
|
|
The number of connections <i>within</i> a group is called <b>bonding social capital</b><ref id="social_capital"></ref>.
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
|
|
|
But what about the connections...
|
|
|
|
|
<next wiggle>...<i>between</i> groups?</next>
|
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<words id="bridging_1">
|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
|
|
|
As you may have already guessed,
|
2018-04-18 20:52:50 +00:00
|
|
|
|
the number of connections <i>between</i> groups is called
|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<b>bridging social capital</b>.
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
|
|
|
This is important, because it helps groups break out of their insular echo chambers!
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
2018-04-18 20:52:50 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<b>Build a bridge, to "infect" everyone with complex wisdom:</b>
|
2018-04-04 15:57:35 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<words id="bridging_end">
|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Like bonding, there's a sweet spot for bridging, too.<ref id="bridge"></ref>
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
(extra challenge: try drawing a bridge so thick that the complex contagion
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<i>can't</i> pass through it!)
|
|
|
|
|
Now that we know how to "design" connections <i>within</i> and <i>between</i> groups, let's...
|
2018-04-18 20:52:50 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<next wiggle>...do BOTH at the same time!</next>
|
2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<words id="bb_1">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<b style="font-size:2em">FINAL PUZZLE!</b>
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
Draw connections within groups (bonding) and between groups (bridging)
|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
|
|
|
|
to spread wisdom to the whole crowd:
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<words id="bb_2">
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-18 20:52:50 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Congrats, you've just drawn a very special kind of network!
|
|
|
|
|
Networks with the right mix of bonding and bridging
|
2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
are profoundly important, and they're called...
|
|
|
|
|
<next wiggle>“Small World Networks” →</next>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
<words id="bb_small_world_1">
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<i>"Unity without uniformity". "Diversity without division". "E Pluribus Unum: out of many, one".</i>
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
No matter how it's phrased,
|
2018-04-18 20:52:50 +00:00
|
|
|
|
people across times and cultures often arrive at the same piece of wisdom:
|
2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
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<b>
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2018-04-18 18:02:27 +00:00
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a healthy society needs a sweet spot of bonds <i>within</i> groups
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and bridges <i>between</i> groups.
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2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
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</b>
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2018-04-18 18:02:27 +00:00
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That is:
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2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
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<words id="bb_small_world_2">
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2018-04-18 18:02:27 +00:00
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Not this...
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2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
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<br>
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(because ideas can't spread)
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</words>
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<words id="bb_small_world_3">
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nor this...
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<br>
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(because you'll get groupthink)
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</words>
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<words id="bb_small_world_4">
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...but <i>THIS:</i>
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</words>
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<words id="bb_small_world_5">
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Network scientists now have a mathematical definition for this ancient wisdom:
|
2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
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the <b>small world network</b><ref id="small_world"></ref>.
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This optimal mix of bonding+bridging describes how
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our neurons are connected<ref id="swn_neurons"></ref>,
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fosters collective creativity<ref id="swn_creativity"></ref>
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2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
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and problem-solving<ref id="swn_social_physics"></ref>,
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2018-04-18 20:52:50 +00:00
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and even once helped US President John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war!<ref id="swn_jfk"></ref>
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2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
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So, yeah, small worlds are a big deal.
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</words>
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<words id="bb_small_world_end">
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2018-04-18 20:28:41 +00:00
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<next>ok, let's wrap this up... →</next>
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
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2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
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<!-- Sandbox -->
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2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
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<words id="sandbox_caption">
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2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
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<b>NOTE: "Sandbox Mode" is totally optional!</b>
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
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|
Feel free to skip it, or play around.<ref id="sandbox"></ref>
|
2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
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Whenever you're done, let's recap...
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_next">
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<next>what we learnt today!</next>
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</words>
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2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
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<words id="sandbox_contagion">
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2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
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Contagion:
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_contagion_simple">
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
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simple
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_contagion_complex">
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
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complex
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_color_chooser">
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
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The Contagion's Color:
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_chooser">
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
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Select a tool...
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_pencil">
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
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Draw Network
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_add">
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
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Add Person
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_add_infected">
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
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Add "Infected"
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_move">
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
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Drag Person
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_delete">
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
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|
Delete Person
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_clear">
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
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|
<b>CLEAR IT ALL</b>
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_shortcuts_label">
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
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|
(...or, use keyboard shortcuts!)
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
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</words>
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
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|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
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<words id="sandbox_shortcuts">
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
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|
[1]: Add Person [2]: Add "Infected"
|
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|
<br>
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|
[Space]: Drag [Backspace]: Delete
|
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|
</words>
|
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|
2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
|
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|
<!-- Conclusion -->
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
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|
<words id="conclusion_1">
|
2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
|
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|
<div style="font-size: 30px;">
|
|
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|
|
IN CONCLUSION: it's all about...
|
|
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|
</div>
|
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|
<div style="
|
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|
width: 100%;
|
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|
position: absolute;
|
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|
font-size: 88px;
|
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|
top: 20px;
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
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|
line-height: 100px; display:block;
|
2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
">
|
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|
|
Contagions & Connections
|
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|
</div>
|
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|
<div style="
|
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|
width: 710px;
|
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|
position: absolute;
|
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|
top: 125px;
|
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|
left: 250px;
|
|
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|
">
|
|
|
|
|
<b>Contagions:</b>
|
|
|
|
|
Like how neurons pass signals in a brain,
|
|
|
|
|
people pass beliefs & behaviors in a society.
|
|
|
|
|
Not only do we influence our friends,
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
we also influence our friends' friends, and even our friends' friends' friends!<ref id="three_degrees"></ref>
|
2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
(“be the change you wanna see in the world” etc etc)
|
|
|
|
|
But, like neurons, it's not just signals that matter, it's also...
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
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|
|
|
<div style="
|
|
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|
width: 710px;
|
|
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|
|
position: absolute;
|
|
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|
|
top: 275px;
|
|
|
|
|
left: 250px;
|
|
|
|
|
">
|
|
|
|
|
<b>Connections:</b>
|
|
|
|
|
Too few connections and complex ideas can't spread.
|
|
|
|
|
Too <i>many</i> connections and complex ideas get crushed by groupthink.
|
|
|
|
|
The trick is to build a small world network, the optimal mix of
|
|
|
|
|
bonding and bridging: <i>e pluribus unum.</i>
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div style="
|
|
|
|
|
width: 400px;
|
|
|
|
|
position: absolute;
|
|
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|
top: 395px;
|
|
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|
right: 0px;
|
|
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|
|
text-align: right;
|
|
|
|
|
">
|
2018-04-18 20:52:50 +00:00
|
|
|
|
So, what about our question from the very beginning?
|
|
|
|
|
Why <i>do</i> some crowds turn to...
|
2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
<div style="
|
|
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|
|
width: 300px;
|
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|
|
position: absolute;
|
|
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|
top: 460px;
|
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|
right: 0px;
|
|
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|
">
|
|
|
|
|
<next>...wisdom and/or madness?</next>
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
<words id="conclusion_2">
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<span style="line-height:1.4em; display:block;">
|
2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
|
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|
|
<div style="height:0.5em"></div>
|
2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
|
|
|
|
From Newton to NASA to
|
2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
|
|
|
|
network science, we've covered a lot here
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
today. Long story short, the madness of crowds
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
is not necessarily due to the <i>individual people</i>, but due
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
to how we're trapped in a network's sticky web.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
|
|
|
|
That <i>does NOT</i> mean abandoning personal responsibility, for
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
we're also the <i>weavers</i> of that web. So, improve your contagions:
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
be skeptical of ideas that flatter you<ref id="flatter"></ref>, spend time understanding
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
complex ideas. And, improve your connections: bond with similar
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
folk, but also build bridges across cultural/political divides.
|
2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
|
|
|
|
We can weave a wise web. Sure, it's harder than doodling
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
lines on a screen...
|
2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<next>...but so, so worth it.</next>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</span>
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<words id="conclusion_3">
|
2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<i>
|
|
|
|
|
“The great triumphs and tragedies of history are caused,
|
|
|
|
|
not by people being fundamentally good or fundamentally bad,
|
|
|
|
|
but by people being fundamentally people.”
|
|
|
|
|
</i>
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
<span style="position:relative; top:5px">~</span> Neil Gaiman & Terry Pratchett
|
2018-04-18 20:52:50 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div style="height:0.8em"></div>
|
2018-04-15 21:24:22 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<next small><3</next>
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<!-- Credits -->
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 15:44:14 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<words id="credits">
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
|
|
|
CREDITS
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
CREDITS
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
CREDITS
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
CREDITS
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
2018-04-25 19:34:37 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["supporters"]);'>SUPPORTERS</a>
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
<a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["playtesters"]);'>PLAYTESTERS</a>
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
<bon id="further_reading"></bon>
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<!-- x. misc -->
|
|
|
|
|
<words id="WIN">
|
|
|
|
|
WIN
|
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
<words id="sim_start">
|
2018-04-18 18:02:27 +00:00
|
|
|
|
start simulation
|
2018-04-13 20:58:04 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
2018-04-18 15:25:41 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<words id="sim_stop">
|
2018-04-18 18:02:27 +00:00
|
|
|
|
reset & re-draw
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
2018-04-23 17:53:36 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<words id="translations_exist">
|
|
|
|
|
Fan-made translations:
|
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
<words id="translations_do_not_exist">
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<!-- There's no need to TRANSLATE this line since, well, -->
|
2018-04-23 17:53:36 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<!-- it'll only show up if no translations exist -->
|
|
|
|
|
What the, no fan-made translations exist yet?!
|
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
<words id="translations_add">
|
|
|
|
|
(add your own!)
|
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
|
|
|
|
<!-- BONUS BOXES -->
|
|
|
|
|
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<!--
|
|
|
|
|
Sorry, not done yet! These Bonus Boxes need you to TRANSLATE, too:
|
|
|
|
|
(And then afterwards, the final thing, translate the References)
|
|
|
|
|
-->
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<bonus id="books">
|
2018-03-27 17:39:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
A quick response to James Surowiecki's <i>The Wisdom of Crowds</i>
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/surowieki.jpg" width="200" height="300" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
First off, I'm not dissing
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds">
|
|
|
|
|
this book.</a>
|
|
|
|
|
It's a good book, and Surowiecki was trying to tackle the same question I am:
|
|
|
|
|
<b>“why do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom?”</b>
|
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|
|
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|
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|
|
<br><br>
|
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Surowiecki's answer: crowds make good decisions when everybody is as independent as possible.
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He gives the story of a game at a county fair,
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where the rabble were invited to guess the weight of an ox.
|
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Surprisingly, the average of all their guesses <i>was better than any one individual guess</i>.
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But, here's the rub: the people have to guess <i>independently</i> of each other.
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If people knew the previous guesses before they put forth their own guess,
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they'd be influenced by those guesses, and all the results would be skewed.
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<br><br>
|
|
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But... I don't think "make everyone be as independent as possible" is quite right.
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Even geniuses, who we tend to mischaracterize as the most independent thinkers,
|
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are actually influenced deeply by others. As Sir Isaac Newton said,
|
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|
|
<i>“If I have seen further, it is by standing on the sholders of Giants.”</i>
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<br><br>
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So, which idea is correct?
|
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|
Does wisdom come from thinking for yourself, or thinking with others?
|
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As is usually the case with these kind of questions, the answer is: "yes".
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<br><br>
|
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So that's what I'll try to explain in this explorable explanation:
|
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|
|
how to get that sweet spot between independence and interdependence —
|
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|
that is, how to get a wise crowd.
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|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
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</div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
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2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
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</bonus>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
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|
<bonus id="connections">
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2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
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<h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
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What other kinds of connections are there?
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
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|
</h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
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2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
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<div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
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For the sake of simplicity, all the simulations here only have one kind of connection,
|
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friendship, and all the friendships are equally strong.
|
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|
But there's other kinds of connections that network scientists think about!
|
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For example:
|
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
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<img src="sprites/bonus/connection1.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
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|
<b>Directional connections.</b> Alice is the boss of Bob, but Bob is not the boss of Alice.
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|
Carol is the parent of Dave, but Dave is not the parent of Carol.
|
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Therefore, "boss" & "parent" are <i>directional</i> relationships:
|
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|
the relationship only goes one way.
|
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|
In contrast, "friends" is a <i>bidirectional</i> relationship:
|
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|
the relationship goes both ways. (well, hopefully)
|
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
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<img src="sprites/bonus/connection2.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
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|
|
<b>Weighted connections.</b> Elinor and Frankie are "friends", but not that close.
|
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|
|
George and Harry are super-duper Best Friends Forever.
|
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|
|
Even though there's a friendship connection in both cases, the second one is a stronger:
|
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|
|
the connections have different "weights".
|
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|
(The "weights" matter when we think about, say, how people influence each other.
|
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|
|
Best Friends will influence each other more than casual acquaintances.)
|
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
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<br>
|
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|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
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|
<img src="sprites/bonus/map.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
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|
|
Just remember: all the simulations in this game are wrong. The same way any map is "wrong".
|
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|
|
You see the map on the left? Buildings aren't actually gray featureless blocks!
|
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|
|
Words don't float above the city! However, maps are useful not <i>despite</i> being simplified,
|
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|
|
but <i>because</i> they're simplified. Same goes for simulations, or any scientific theory.
|
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|
|
Of <i>course</i> they're "wrong" — that's what makes them <i>useful</i>.
|
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|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
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|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
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|
</bonus>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<bonus id="contagions">
|
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|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
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|
|
<h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
What other kinds of contagions are there?
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
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|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
There's so, so many ways that network scientists can simulate "contagions".
|
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|
|
I'm just picking the simplest one, for educational purposes.
|
|
|
|
|
But, for completeness, here's other ways you could simulate contagions:
|
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|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
|
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|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion1.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<b>Contagions with Randomness</b>. Instead of "if your friend is infected, you'll get infected",
|
|
|
|
|
you could simulate "if your friend is infected, you'll get infected <i>with an X% chance</i>".
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion2.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<b>People have different contagion thresholds.</b>
|
|
|
|
|
In this simulation, I'm pretending everyone has the same threshold for binge-drinking (50%) or
|
|
|
|
|
volunteering (25%) or misinformation (0%). That's not true in real life, of course,
|
|
|
|
|
and you could make your simulation reflect that.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion3.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<b>An ecology of contagions.</b> This is actually cutting-edge research,
|
|
|
|
|
and I'm not entirely sure how one would do this.
|
|
|
|
|
In my simulations, only one contagion is spreading at a time.
|
|
|
|
|
But what if there were <i>multiple</i> contagions, with <i>different</i> thresholds?
|
|
|
|
|
For example, a simple "madness" contagion and a complex "wisdom" contagion.
|
|
|
|
|
If someone's infected with madness, can they still be infected with wisdom?
|
|
|
|
|
Or vice versa?
|
|
|
|
|
Can someone be infected with both?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion4.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<b>Contagions that mutate and evolve.</b>
|
|
|
|
|
Ideas don't pass perfectly from one person to another the way a virus genome does.
|
|
|
|
|
Like a game of Telephone, the message gets mutated with each re-telling.
|
|
|
|
|
Sometimes the mutant will be more contagious than the original!
|
|
|
|
|
And so, over time,
|
|
|
|
|
ideas "evolve" to be more digestible,
|
|
|
|
|
urban legends "evolve" to be more shocking,
|
|
|
|
|
habits and behaviors "evolve" to be more copy-able.
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</bonus>
|
|
|
|
|
<bonus id="further_reading">
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Further Reading & Playing
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
This explorable explanation was just a springboard for your curiosity,
|
|
|
|
|
so you can dive deeper into a vast pool of knowledge!
|
|
|
|
|
So, here's two of my favorite things on networks:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/connected.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<b>Book:</b>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
|
|
|
|
|
Connected</a>
|
|
|
|
|
by Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler (2009).
|
|
|
|
|
A layperson-friendly yet rigorous tour of how networks affect our lives,
|
|
|
|
|
for good and ill. They summarize the science, and also present some of their original findings,
|
|
|
|
|
like the "Three Degrees of Influence":
|
|
|
|
|
you affect not just your friends, but your friends' friends, and your friends' friends' friends!
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/pdf/excerpt.pdf">
|
|
|
|
|
Here's a link to an excerpt.
|
|
|
|
|
</a>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/swn.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<b>Interactive:</b>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://worrydream.com/ScientificCommunicationAsSequentialArt/">
|
2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Collective Dynamics of Small World Networks</a>,
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
original paper by Watts & Strogatz (1998),
|
|
|
|
|
turned into interactive visuals by Bret Victor in 2011.
|
|
|
|
|
Slightly technical, but it's a lot easier to understand when
|
|
|
|
|
paired with pictures you can play with!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alternatively, if you want to play more explorable explanations about society,
|
|
|
|
|
(and not necessarily about networks),
|
|
|
|
|
<b>check out these other interactives I've made!</b>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/trust.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://ncase.me/trust/">
|
2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
|
|
|
|
The Evolution of Trust</a> by Nicky Case (2017).
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
This is a game about the game theory of how cooperation arises (or not).
|
|
|
|
|
You first play a game of trust,
|
|
|
|
|
then play a meta-game of that, then a meta-meta-game of that...
|
|
|
|
|
and discover what leads people to trust each other, or trust no one.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/polygons.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://ncase.me/polygons/">
|
2018-04-24 14:22:06 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Parable of the Polygons</a> by Vi Hart and Nicky Case (2014).
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
A story about how harmless choices can create a harmful world.
|
|
|
|
|
Based off a Nobel Prize-winning game theorist's work,
|
2018-04-23 17:53:36 +00:00
|
|
|
|
this interactive shows how discrimination and diversity can arise from the bottom up.
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</bonus>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-04 15:57:35 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
|
|
|
|
<!-- REFERENCES -->
|
|
|
|
|
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
2018-03-27 17:39:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<!--
|
|
|
|
|
Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE:
|
|
|
|
|
-->
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<reference id="drunk">
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
“virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did.”
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1758185">
|
|
|
|
|
“Biases in the perception of drinking norms among college students”</a> by Baer et al (1991).
|
|
|
|
|
The study finds that students greatly overestimate how much their peers drink.
|
|
|
|
|
And in other news, water is wet and sky is blue.
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="majority">
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
“The Majority Illusion”
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147617">
|
|
|
|
|
“The Majority Illusion in Social Networks”</a> by Lerman et al (2016).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
In this paper, they found that the majority illusion is strongest in friendship networks
|
|
|
|
|
with “heterogeneous degree distribution and disassortative structure.”
|
|
|
|
|
Or, in Normal Human Words: when there are wide differences (heterogeneous)
|
|
|
|
|
in the # of friends each individual person has (degree),
|
|
|
|
|
and when low-friend people are friends with high-friend people (disassortative).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Another cool, related illusion:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/04/economist-explains-why-friends-more-popular-paradox">
|
|
|
|
|
The Friendship Paradox</a>,
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
which is the empirical finding that, on average, your friends will have more friends than you do.
|
|
|
|
|
I always used to feel lonely... but now, I have a <i>mathematical</i> excuse for feeling lonely! Hooray!
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="contagion">
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
“strong statistical evidence that
|
2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
|
|
|
|
smoking, health, happiness, voting patterns, and cooperation levels
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
are all contagious”
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
This is all laid out in Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's
|
|
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|
|
well-written, layperson-friendly book,
|
|
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|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
|
|
|
|
|
Connected</a> (2009).
|
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|
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|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
But how do they know that the friendships actually <i>cause</i> changes in health, happiness, etc,
|
|
|
|
|
rather than just being "mere" correlation?
|
|
|
|
|
They did two clever things:
|
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|
|
<br><br>
|
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|
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1) They used the Framingham Heart Study dataset, which tracked thousands of people for <i>generations</i>.
|
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|
|
The data showed that people were becoming friends first, and <i>then</i> becoming more similar.
|
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|
|
It's true that similarities "cause" friendships (birds of a feather flock together),
|
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but this proves that friendships "cause" similarities, too.
|
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|
<br><br>
|
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|
|
And 2) They found pairs of people where Person A named Person B as their friend,
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|
|
but Person B did <i>not</i> name Person A as their friend. Awkward.
|
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In those cases, they found that the "contagion" <i>only</i> flows in one direction.
|
|
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|
|
This proves that, indeed, changes in health are caused by social influence,
|
|
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|
|
rather than caused by external variables like, I dunno,
|
|
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|
|
a new McDonald's opening up in Person A & B's neighborhood.
|
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|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
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</div>
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|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
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|
|
<reference id="suicides">
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
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|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
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|
|
“some evidence that suicides are [contagious], too”
|
|
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|
</h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/42000514?seq=4#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
|
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|
|
“Suicide Contagion and the Reporting of Suicide: Recommendations from a National Workshop”</a>
|
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|
|
by O'Carroll et al (1994), endorsed by the frickin' Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC).
|
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|
<br><br>
|
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|
Here's what they found <i>increases</i> suicide-contagion:
|
|
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|
|
repeated, sensationalist coverage,
|
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|
|
reporting the exact step-by-step method of suicide,
|
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|
|
presenting suicide as a means to effectively accomplish ends.
|
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|
|
So, their CDC-endorsed recommendation to all news outlets: don't do that.
|
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|
<br><br>
|
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|
To the news outlets' credit, they've mostly adopted these guidelines on suicide-contagion.
|
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|
|
But less so on mass-shooting-contagion.
|
|
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|
|
See <a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["shootings"]);'>next footnote.</a>
|
|
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|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
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|
<reference id="shootings">
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
“some evidence that mass shootings are [contagious], too”
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0117259">
|
|
|
|
|
“Contagion in Mass Killings and School Shootings”</a> by Towers et al (2015).
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
Just like how news outlets take caution in how they report suicides
|
|
|
|
|
in order to minimize the risk of suicide-contagion,
|
|
|
|
|
(see <a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["suicides"]);'>previous footnote</a>)
|
|
|
|
|
many journalists/criminologists are calling on news outlets to take more responsibility
|
|
|
|
|
in how they cover mass shootings,
|
|
|
|
|
in order to minimize the risk of murder-contagion.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
See: the
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.dontnamethem.org/">
|
|
|
|
|
Don't Name Them</a> campaign,
|
|
|
|
|
which recommends that news outlets <i>NOT</i> give fame to mass shooters by airing their name, manifestos,
|
|
|
|
|
and social media profile bio —
|
|
|
|
|
and instead, focus on the victims, the first responders, the civilian heroes,
|
|
|
|
|
and the grieving & healing community.
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="subprime">
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
“The world's financial institutions fell for such a cascade in 2008.”
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://newrepublic.com/article/63023/wall-streets-lemmings">
|
|
|
|
|
“Lemmings of Wall Street”</a> by Cass Sunstein, is a quick, non-technical read.
|
|
|
|
|
Published in Oct 2008, <i>during</i> the crash,
|
|
|
|
|
he looks at the whole mess through the lens of information cascades & social psychology.
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="complex">
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
“Complex contagions are weirder.”
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.unc.edu/~fbaum/teaching/articles/Granovetter_AJS_1978.pdf">
|
|
|
|
|
“Threshold Models of Collective Behavior”</a> by Granovetter (1978)
|
|
|
|
|
was the first time, as far as I know, anyone described a "complex contagion" model.
|
|
|
|
|
Although: 1) he didn't name it "complex contagion",
|
|
|
|
|
and 2) the "thresholds" in his model are
|
|
|
|
|
based on absolute # of exposure, not relative % of exposure.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0180802">
|
|
|
|
|
“Evidence for complex contagion models of social contagion from observational data”</a>
|
|
|
|
|
by Sprague & House (2017)
|
|
|
|
|
gets data to show that complex contagion does, in fact, exist. Well, on the internet, at least.
|
|
|
|
|
Science is hard, okay?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Finally — and this paper tickles by nerd-bones —
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0403699.pdf">
|
|
|
|
|
“Universal behavior in a generalized model of contagion”</a> by Dodds & Watts (2004)
|
|
|
|
|
proposes a model that unifies <i>all</i> kinds of contagions:
|
|
|
|
|
simple and complex, biological and social!
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="groupthink">
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
“groupthink”
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
This Orwell-inspired phrase was coined by Irving L. Janis way back in 1971!
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100401033524/http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/macdonald/GroupThink.pdf">
|
|
|
|
|
In his original article</a>,
|
|
|
|
|
he investigates the Bay of Pigs fiasco (and other cases where groups of experts made terrible decisions),
|
|
|
|
|
and lists groupthink's causes, symptoms, and — thankfully, some remedies.
|
|
|
|
|
(for more on how to remedy groupthink, and how "small worlds" once barely
|
|
|
|
|
saved the world from the drink of nuclear war, check out
|
|
|
|
|
<a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["swn_jfk"]);'>this footnote</a>.)
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="social_capital">
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
“bonding and bridging social capital”
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
These two types of social capital — "bonding" and "bridging" —
|
|
|
|
|
were coined by Robert Putnam in his insightful, layperson-friendly 2000 book,
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://bowlingalone.com/">
|
|
|
|
|
Bowling Alone</a>. Using a bunch of data and statistics, he finds that,
|
|
|
|
|
across almost <i>all</i> measures of social connectiveness, Americans are more alone than ever.
|
|
|
|
|
Golly.
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="bridge">
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
“bridging social capital has a sweet spot”
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://sociology.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/the_strength_of_weak_ties_and_exch_w-gans.pdf">
|
|
|
|
|
“The Strength of Weak Ties”</a> by Granovetter (1973)
|
|
|
|
|
showed the world a really counterintuitive discovery –
|
|
|
|
|
people get new, useful information (like job openings) not from their close friendships (strong ties),
|
|
|
|
|
but from their distant acquaintances (weak ties)! This is because people in your group will mostly have the same
|
|
|
|
|
information <i>you</i> do, but people <i>outside</i> your group will be more likely to have novel information.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
So, that may lead you to think that more weak ties, more bridging, is always better
|
|
|
|
|
(at least, for spreading contagions).
|
|
|
|
|
But a newer paper,
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/521848?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
|
|
|
|
“Complex Contagions and the Weakness of Long Ties”</a> by Centola & Macy (2007)
|
|
|
|
|
shows that while Granovetter's findings hold up for simple contagions,
|
|
|
|
|
they fail for complex contagions! And, in fact,
|
|
|
|
|
“as adoption thresholds increase, <i>long ties can impede diffusion</i>.” [emphasis added]
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="small_world">
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
“the small world network”
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
// Milgram, six degrees of separation popularized
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The "small world network" became an academic celebrity
|
|
|
|
|
with the release of
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://leonidzhukov.net/hse/2014/socialnetworks/papers/watts-collective_dynamics-nature_1998.pdf">
|
|
|
|
|
“Collective dynamics of small-world networks”</a> by Watts & Strogatz (1998).
|
|
|
|
|
// sweet spot (totally regular, random)
|
|
|
|
|
I'll admit, it's a really technical paper,
|
|
|
|
|
and I didn't understand it until I played
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://worrydream.com/ScientificCommunicationAsSequentialArt/">
|
|
|
|
|
the visual, interactive adaptation</a> by Bret Victor! (2011)
|
|
|
|
|
Seriously, check that one out.
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="swn_neurons">
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
“[small world networks] describe how our neurons are connected”
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17079517">
|
|
|
|
|
“Small-world brain networks”</a> by Bassett & Bullmore (2006).
|
|
|
|
|
The authors do some magic science stuff to monkey and cat brains,
|
|
|
|
|
something something something, et voila, they're small-world networks!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
...okay, this paper totally flew over my head.
|
|
|
|
|
But it's got 1500+ citations, so, it's probably fine.
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="swn_creativity">
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
“[small world networks] give rise to collective creativity”
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/432782?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
|
|
|
|
“Collaboration and Creativity: The Small World Problem”</a> by Uzzi & Spiro (2005).
|
|
|
|
|
This paper analyzed the social networks of artists in the Broadway scene from 1945 to 1989,
|
|
|
|
|
measured the financial & critical success of the musicals they made,
|
|
|
|
|
and discovered that, yup, you're most creative when you're in a small world network!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Also of note: they found that “the small world effect was parabolic [upside-down U shape]”. That is:
|
|
|
|
|
creativity was hurt by both too little <i>and</i> too much connectivity —
|
|
|
|
|
you need a sweet spot!
|
|
|
|
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|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="swn_social_physics">
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
“[small world networks] give rise to collective problem-solving”
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
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|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://socialphysics.media.mit.edu/">
|
|
|
|
|
“Social Physics”</a> by MIT Professor Alex "Sandy" Pentland (2014)
|
|
|
|
|
analyzes a whole bunch of data,
|
|
|
|
|
and finds that people make collective decisions best when they're connected <i>but not too connected</i>
|
|
|
|
|
— a sweet spot.
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
Pentland was also the co-author of my favorite papers,
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/330/6004/686.short">
|
|
|
|
|
“Evidence for a Collective Intelligence Factor in the Performance of Human Groups”</a> by Woolley et al (2004).
|
|
|
|
|
Turns out, the secret sauce behind smart groups is "social sensitivity", or, empathy.
|
|
|
|
|
(but, as Irving Janis pointed out a few decades earlier, <i>too much</i> of a
|
|
|
|
|
buddy-buddy everyone-get-along feeling can lead to groupthink.
|
|
|
|
|
See <a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["groupthink"]);'>this footnote</a>.)
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="swn_jfk">
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
“[small world networks] helped John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war!”
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Besides the NASA Challenger explosion, the most notorious example of groupthink
|
|
|
|
|
was the Bay of Pigs fiasco. In 1961, US President John F. Kennedy and his team of advisors
|
|
|
|
|
thought — for some reason — it would be a good idea to secretly invade Cuba and overthrow Fidel Castro.
|
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|
|
They failed. Actually, worse than failed: it led to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962,
|
|
|
|
|
<i>the closest the world had ever been to full-scale nuclear war.</i>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yup, JFK really screwed up on that one.
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
But, having learnt some hard lessons from the Bay of Pigs fiasco,
|
|
|
|
|
JFK re-organized his team to avoid groupthink.
|
|
|
|
|
Among many things, he:
|
|
|
|
|
1) actively encouraged people to voice criticism,
|
|
|
|
|
thus lowering the "contagion threshold" for alternate ideas.
|
|
|
|
|
And
|
|
|
|
|
2) he broke his team up into sub-groups before reconvening,
|
|
|
|
|
which gave their group a "small world network"-like design!
|
|
|
|
|
Together, this "group design" allowed for a healthy diversity of opinion,
|
|
|
|
|
but without being too fractured — a wisdom of crowds.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
And so, with the same <i>individuals</i> who decided the Bay of Pigs,
|
|
|
|
|
but re-arranged <i>collectively</i> to decide on the Cuban Missile Crisis...
|
|
|
|
|
JFK's team was able to reach a peaceful agreement with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev.
|
|
|
|
|
The Soviets would remove their missiles from Cuba, and in return,
|
|
|
|
|
the US would promise not to invade Cuba again.
|
|
|
|
|
(and also agreed, in secret, to remove the US missiles from Turkey)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
And that's the story of how all of humanity almost died.
|
|
|
|
|
But a small world network saved the day! Sort of.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You can read more about this
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://hbr.org/2013/11/how-john-f-kennedy-changed-decision-making">
|
|
|
|
|
on Harvard Business Review</a>,
|
|
|
|
|
or from
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100401033524/http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/macdonald/GroupThink.pdf">
|
|
|
|
|
Irving Janis's original article on groupthink</a>.
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<reference id="three_degrees">
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
“we influence [...] our friends' friends' friends!”
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Again, from Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's
|
|
|
|
|
great, layperson-friendly book,
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
|
|
|
|
|
Connected</a> (2009).
|
|
|
|
|
See <a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["contagion"]);'>this footnote</a> for details on how they did their analysis.
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<reference id="flatter">
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
“be skeptical of ideas that flatter you”
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
yes, including the ideas in <i>this</i> explorable explanation.
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<reference id="sandbox">
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
★ Sandbox Mode ★
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Pst... wanna hear a secret?
|
|
|
|
|
Those keyboard shortcuts (1, 2, space, delete)
|
|
|
|
|
work not just in the Sandbox Mode, but in <i>all</i> the puzzles!
|
|
|
|
|
Seriously, you can go back to a different chapter,
|
|
|
|
|
and edit the simulation right there.
|
|
|
|
|
In fact, that's how <i>I</i> created all these puzzles. Have fun!
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
2018-04-22 14:17:49 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-16 19:14:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
2018-04-25 19:34:37 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<reference id="supporters" hidden=yes large=yes>
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
To
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.patreon.com/ncase">my supporters on Patreon</a>:
|
|
|
|
|
I'm deeply grateful.
|
|
|
|
|
Your generosity <i>literally</i> feeds me and pays my rent,
|
|
|
|
|
and grants me the creative freedom to make these weird math/social-science games.
|
|
|
|
|
From the bottom of my heart, thank you!
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="playtesters" hidden=yes large=yes>
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Thank you, everyone who playtested <i>Crowds</i>
|
|
|
|
|
during its many stages of life!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
<b>The Prototype:</b>
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Maria ·
|
2018-04-25 19:34:37 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Monica Srivastava
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
<b>The Alpha:</b>
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
Glen Chiacchieri ·
|
|
|
|
|
Kalli Repzeti ·
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Mali Akmanalp ·
|
2018-04-25 19:34:37 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Toph Tucker
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
<b>The Beta:</b>
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
Alex Dytrych ·
|
|
|
|
|
Amit Patel ·
|
|
|
|
|
Cassandra McClure ·
|
|
|
|
|
Catherine Ray ·
|
|
|
|
|
Josh Comeau ·
|
|
|
|
|
Kayle Sawyer ·
|
|
|
|
|
Matthew Conlen ·
|
|
|
|
|
Srini Kadamati ·
|
|
|
|
|
Vanessa Shen ·
|
|
|
|
|
Wick Perry
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-18 14:51:44 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</span>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<!--
|
2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
|
|
|
And that's it! That's the last of what needed to a TRANSLATE
|
2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Thank you so, so much for doing this again, wow.
|
2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Finally, go to "translations.txt" and follow the instructions there,
|
|
|
|
|
in order to let this game "know" your translation exists.
|
2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-26 14:15:00 +00:00
|
|
|
|
-->
|