2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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<!--
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2018-03-27 17:39:08 +00:00
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THE WISDOM AND/OR MADNESS OF CROWDS
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by Nicky Case | apr 2018
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MY "WHY" FOR MAKING THIS:
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+ to build a foundation for further curiosity about networks, group dynamics
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+ to practice teaching with problem-solving, a pre-req for skills
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+ to instill transcendent sense of "fundamentally people", of Humanity's Brain <3
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2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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SLIDES:
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Keep all words on index.html. This allows people to translate it to SAME repo!
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/de.html, etc etc
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Same format as EvoTrust. But also footnotes.
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Cursor is allowed to flow EVERYWHERE though...
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-->
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<!doctype>
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<html>
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<head>
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<title>The Wisdom and/or Madness of Crowds</title>
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2018-04-06 17:13:42 +00:00
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<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="css/index.css">
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2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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</head>
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<body>
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2018-03-27 17:39:08 +00:00
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2018-04-03 15:25:13 +00:00
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<div id="container">
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2018-04-02 17:43:20 +00:00
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<!-- Simulation(s) in background -->
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<div id="simulations_container">
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<div id="simulations"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Slideshow: words & buttons -->
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<div id="slideshow_container">
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<div id="slideshow"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Scratch Transition -->
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<div id="scratch"></div>
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<!-- Modal -->
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<div id="modal"></div>
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2018-03-27 17:39:08 +00:00
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2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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</div>
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2018-03-27 17:39:08 +00:00
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<!-- Navigation: Audio, Contents, Share, Translations -->
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2018-04-04 15:57:35 +00:00
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<div id="navigation_container">
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<div id="audio"></div>
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<div id="navigation">
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<!-- The chapters -->
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<div chapter="Introduction">
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<span>0</span>
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<span>0. Introduction</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Networks">
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<span>1</span>
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<span>1. Networks</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Simple">
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<span>2</span>
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<span>2. Simple Contagion</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Complex">
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<span>3</span>
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<span>3. Complex Contagion</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="BB">
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<span>4</span>
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<span>4. Bonding & Bridging</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Sandbox">
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<span>5</span>
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<span>5. Sandbox</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Conclusion">
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<span>6</span>
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<span>6. In Conclusion...</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Credits">
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<span>7</span>
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<span>7. Credits</span>
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</div>
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<!-- A divider -->
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<span class="nav_divider"></span>
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<!-- Bonus Notes & References -->
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<div modal="bonus">
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<span>?</span>
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<span>Bonus Boxes! (Notes)</span>
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</div>
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<div modal="references">
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<span style="margin-top:5px">*</span>
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<span>References</span>
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</div>
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<!-- The hover bubble -->
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<span id="nav_bubble">AHHHHHH</span>
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</div>
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<div id="social"></div>
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2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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</div>
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2018-03-27 17:39:08 +00:00
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<canvas id="pencil"></canvas>
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2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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</body>
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</html>
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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<!-- THE SLIDESHOW'S WORDS -->
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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2018-03-27 17:39:08 +00:00
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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<!-- 0. Introduction -->
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2018-03-27 17:39:08 +00:00
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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<words id="_0_title">
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the
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<br>
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WISDOM and/or MADNESS
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<br>
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of CROWDS
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</words>
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2018-03-27 17:39:08 +00:00
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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<words id="_0_subtitle">
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playing time: 30 min • by nicky case, april 2018
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</words>
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2018-03-28 14:57:19 +00:00
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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<words id="_0_loading">
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loading...
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</words>
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2018-03-27 17:39:08 +00:00
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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<words id="_0_play">
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let's play! →
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</words>
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2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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<words id="_0_intro">
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2018-04-11 20:44:12 +00:00
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<div class="circle"><span>
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<br><br><br>
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Isaac Newton was pretty sure he was one smart cookie.
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I mean, after inventing calculus, classical mechanics, and a theory of gravity,
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he should be smart enough to do some financial investing, right?
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Anyway,
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long story short, he lost $4,600,000 (in today's dollars)
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in the nationwide speculation frenzy known as the South Sea Bubble of 1720.
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<br><br>
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As Mr. Newton later said:
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<i>“I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.”</i>
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<next>yeah sucks for him →</next>
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</span></div>
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</words>
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<words id="_0_intro_2">
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<div class="circle"><span>
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<br>
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Of course, that's not the only time markets, institutions, or entire democracies went crazy:
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the <i>madness</i> of crowds.
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And yet, just when you lose hope in humanity,
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you see citizens rescuing each other in hurricanes,
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communities banding together after tragedy,
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movements of ordinary people fighting for a better world:
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the <i>wisdom</i> of crowds!
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<br><br>
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<b>But <i>why</i> do some crowds become wise or mad?</b>
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Can we calculate the madness, or wisdom, of people?
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According to a new field of science,
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the answer is not to look at a crowd's <i>individuals</i>,
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but at...
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<next>...its <i>network</i> →</next>
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</span></div>
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2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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</words>
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<!-- 1. Networks -->
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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2018-03-28 17:12:05 +00:00
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<words id="_1_tutorial_start">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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<b>Let's draw a network!</b>
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Each connection represents a friendship between two people:
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2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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2018-03-28 17:12:05 +00:00
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<words id="_1_tutorial_connect">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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draw to connect
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2018-03-28 17:12:05 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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2018-03-28 17:12:05 +00:00
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<words id="_1_tutorial_disconnect">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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scratch to disconnect
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2018-03-28 17:12:05 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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2018-03-28 17:12:05 +00:00
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<words id="_1_tutorial_end">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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feel free to keep playing around, and draw whatever friendship network you want!
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when you're done,
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<next wiggle>let's continue →</next>
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2018-03-28 17:12:05 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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<words id="_1_threshold">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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But people don't just have social connections to make pretty pictures.
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People look at their social connections, to understand their social world.
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In this example, people look to their peers to
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find out what % of their friends (not counting selves) are,
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say, binge-drinkers. (img)
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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<words id="_1_threshold_instruction">
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<b>Draw/erase connections, and see what happens! →</b>
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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<words id="_1_threshold_explanation">
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<span style="color:#666">top-left:</span>
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# of drinker friends / # of total friends
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<br>
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<span style="color:#666">top-right:</span>
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% of drinker friends →
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<br>
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<span style="color:#666">black line:</span>
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the 50% "majority" threshold
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<br> (they'll glow if past threshold)
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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</words>
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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<words id="_1_threshold_end">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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<next>cool, got it</next>
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="_1_pre_puzzle">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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However, networks can <i>fool</i> people.
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Just like how you see the earth as flat because you're on it,
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people get wrong ideas about society because they're <i>in</i> it.
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<br><br>
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(BONUS BOX: OTHER CONNECTIONS)
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<br><br>
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For example, a 1991 study(*) showed that
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“virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did.”
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But that seems impossible!
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How can that be?
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Well, you're about to invent the answer yourself, by drawing a network.
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It's time to...
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<next>FOOL EVERYONE →</next>
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="_1_puzzle">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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<b style="font-size:2em">PUZZLE TIME!</b>
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<br>
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Fool <i>everyone</i> into thinking
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the majority of their friends are binge-drinkers (img)
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(even though binge-drinkers are outnumbered 2-to-1)
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="_1_puzzle_metric">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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<b>FOOLED:</b>
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</words>
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<words id="_1_puzzle_metric_2">
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out of 9 people
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="_1_puzzle_end">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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Congrats! You manipulated a group of students into believing
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in the prevalance of an incredibly unhealthy social norm! Good going!
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<next wiggle>...uh. thanks?</next>
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="_1_post_puzzle">
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2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
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What you just created is called The Majority Illusion(*),
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which also explains why people think their political views are consensus,
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or why extremism seems more common than it actually is.
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<i>Madness.</i>
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<br><br>
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But ideas/behaviors aren't just passively observed, they actively <i>spread</i>.
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So now, let's look at something network scientists call...
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<next>“Simple Contagion!” →</next>
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<b>← bonus challenge:</b> make everyone think
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<i>less than half</i> of their friends are binge-drinkers
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</words>
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<words id="_1_post_puzzle_bonus">
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🙌 yay you did it 🙌
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2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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</words>
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<!-- 2. Simple Contagions -->
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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2018-04-03 17:32:26 +00:00
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<words id="_2_simple">
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blah blah simple
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</words>
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<words id="_2_simple_end">
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<next wiggle>next</next>
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</words>
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<words id="_2_cascade">
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blah blah simple cascade
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</words>
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<words id="_2_cascade_end">
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<next wiggle>onwards...</next>
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</words>
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2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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<!-- 3. Complex Contagions -->
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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2018-04-03 17:32:26 +00:00
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<words id="_3_complex">
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blah blah complex vs simple
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</words>
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<words id="_3_complex_end">
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herp derp blah blah
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<next wiggle>next</next>
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</words>
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<words id="_3_cascade">
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blah blah complex cascade
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</words>
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<words id="_3_cascade_end">
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<next wiggle>fweeee</next>
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</words>
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<words id="_3_prevent">
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blah blah complex prevention
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</words>
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<words id="_3_prevent_end">
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herp derp blah blah
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<next wiggle>next</next>
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</words>
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2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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<!-- 4. Bonding & Bridging -->
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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<!-- 5. Sandbox -->
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2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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<!-- 6. Conclusion -->
|
2018-04-03 17:32:26 +00:00
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<!-- recap and CONCRETE LIFE TAKE-AWAYS. mirror intro UI -->
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2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
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<!-- 7. Credits -->
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|
2018-04-04 15:57:35 +00:00
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<words id="_7_credits">
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FWEEEEEE
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</words>
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|
2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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|
|
<!-- x. misc -->
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<words id="WIN">
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|
WIN
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</words>
|
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|
<words id="sim_start">
|
2018-04-03 17:32:26 +00:00
|
|
|
> start
|
2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
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|
|
</words>
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|
<words id="sim_next">
|
2018-04-03 15:25:13 +00:00
|
|
|
>> next
|
2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
|
|
|
</words>
|
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|
|
<words id="sim_reset">
|
2018-04-03 17:32:26 +00:00
|
|
|
↺ reset
|
2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
|
|
|
</words>
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
|
|
|
<words id="sandbox_contagion">
|
|
|
|
|
Contagion:
|
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|
</words>
|
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|
<words id="sandbox_contagion_simple">
|
|
|
|
|
simple
|
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
<words id="sandbox_contagion_complex">
|
|
|
|
|
complex
|
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
<words id="sandbox_color_chooser">
|
|
|
|
|
The Contagion's Color:
|
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
<words id="sandbox_tool_chooser">
|
|
|
|
|
Select a tool...
|
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<words id="sandbox_tool_pencil">
|
2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
|
|
|
Draw Network
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
<words id="sandbox_tool_add">
|
2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
|
|
|
Add Person
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
<words id="sandbox_tool_add_infected">
|
2018-04-06 17:13:42 +00:00
|
|
|
Add "Infected"
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
<words id="sandbox_tool_move">
|
2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
|
|
|
Move Person
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
<words id="sandbox_tool_delete">
|
2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
|
|
|
Delete Person
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
<words id="sandbox_tool_clear">
|
|
|
|
|
<b>CLEAR IT ALL</b>
|
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<words id="sandbox_shortcuts_label">
|
|
|
|
|
(...or, use keyboard shortcuts!)
|
|
|
|
|
</words>
|
|
|
|
|
<words id="sandbox_shortcuts">
|
2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
|
|
|
[1]: Add Person
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
|
|
|
<br>
|
2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
|
|
|
[2]: Add "Infected" Person
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
|
|
|
<br>
|
2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
|
|
|
[Space]: Move Person
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
|
|
|
<br>
|
2018-04-12 17:12:45 +00:00
|
|
|
[Backspace]: Delete Person
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
|
|
|
</words>
|
2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
|
|
|
|
2018-03-27 17:39:08 +00:00
|
|
|
<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - - -->
|
2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
|
|
|
<!-- BONUS BOXES (footnotes) -->
|
2018-03-27 17:39:08 +00:00
|
|
|
<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - - -->
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-02 17:43:20 +00:00
|
|
|
<bonus id="herp">
|
|
|
|
|
<title>HERP DERP</title>
|
|
|
|
|
<description>
|
|
|
|
|
Herp derp HERP derp derp? Herp derp DERP herp herp derp!
|
|
|
|
|
</description>
|
2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
|
|
|
</bonus>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018-04-04 15:57:35 +00:00
|
|
|
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
|
|
|
|
<!-- REFERENCES -->
|
|
|
|
|
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
2018-03-27 17:39:08 +00:00
|
|
|
|
2018-04-04 15:57:35 +00:00
|
|
|
<references>
|
|
|
|
|
</references>
|
2018-03-26 15:52:43 +00:00
|
|
|
|
2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
|
|
|
<!-- - - - - -->
|
|
|
|
|
<!-- SCRIPTS -->
|
|
|
|
|
<!-- - - - - -->
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<script src="js/lib/helpers.js"></script>
|
|
|
|
|
<script src="js/lib/minpubsub.src.js"></script>
|
|
|
|
|
<script src="js/lib/Key.js"></script>
|
|
|
|
|
<script src="js/lib/Mouse.js"></script>
|
|
|
|
|
<script src="js/lib/Sprite.js"></script>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<script src="js/slideshow/Slideshow.js"></script>
|
|
|
|
|
<script src="js/slideshow/Pencil.js"></script>
|
|
|
|
|
<script src="js/slideshow/Boxes.js"></script>
|
2018-04-02 17:43:20 +00:00
|
|
|
<script src="js/slideshow/Scratch.js"></script>
|
2018-04-04 15:57:35 +00:00
|
|
|
<script src="js/slideshow/Navigation.js"></script>
|
2018-04-06 16:06:55 +00:00
|
|
|
<script src="js/slideshow/SimUI.js"></script>
|
|
|
|
|
<script src="js/slideshow/SandboxUI.js"></script>
|
2018-04-01 16:34:52 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<script src="js/sim/Peep.js"></script>
|
|
|
|
|
<script src="js/sim/Connection.js"></script>
|
|
|
|
|
<script src="js/sim/ConnectorCutter.js"></script>
|
|
|
|
|
<!--script src="js/sim/_Game.js"></script-->
|
|
|
|
|
<script src="js/sim/Simulations.js"></script>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<script src="js/chapters/0_Introduction.js"></script>
|
|
|
|
|
<script src="js/chapters/1_Networks.js"></script>
|
|
|
|
|
<script src="js/chapters/2_Simple_Contagion.js"></script>
|
|
|
|
|
<script src="js/chapters/3_Complex_Contagion.js"></script>
|
|
|
|
|
<script src="js/chapters/4_Bonding_And_Bridging.js"></script>
|
|
|
|
|
<script src="js/chapters/5_Sandbox.js"></script>
|
|
|
|
|
<script src="js/chapters/6_Conclusion.js"></script>
|
|
|
|
|
<script src="js/chapters/7_Credits.js"></script>
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<script src="js/main.js"></script>
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