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<!--
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THE WISDOM AND/OR MADNESS OF CROWDS
by Nicky Case | apr 2018
MY "WHY" FOR MAKING THIS:
+ to build a foundation for further curiosity about networks, group dynamics
+ to practice teaching with problem-solving, a pre-req for skills
+ to instill transcendent sense of "fundamentally people", of Humanity's Brain <3
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SLIDES:
Keep all words on index.html. This allows people to translate it to SAME repo!
/de.html, etc etc
Same format as EvoTrust. But also footnotes.
Cursor is allowed to flow EVERYWHERE though...
-->
<!doctype>
<html>
<head>
<title>The Wisdom and/or Madness of Crowds</title>
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<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="css/index.css">
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</head>
<body>
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<div id="container">
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<!-- Simulation(s) in background -->
<div id="simulations_container">
<div id="simulations"></div>
</div>
<!-- Slideshow: words & buttons -->
<div id="slideshow_container">
<div id="slideshow"></div>
</div>
<!-- Scratch Transition -->
<div id="scratch"></div>
<!-- Modal -->
<div id="modal"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Navigation: Audio, Contents, Share, Translations -->
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<div id="navigation_container">
<div id="audio"></div>
<div id="navigation">
<!-- The chapters -->
<div chapter="Introduction">
<span>0</span>
<span>0. Introduction</span>
</div>
<div chapter="Networks">
<span>1</span>
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<span>1. Connections</span>
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</div>
<div chapter="Simple">
<span>2</span>
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<span>2. Contagions</span>
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</div>
<div chapter="Complex">
<span>3</span>
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<span>3. Complex Contagions</span>
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</div>
<div chapter="BB">
<span>4</span>
<span>4. Bonding &amp; Bridging</span>
</div>
<div chapter="Sandbox">
<span>5</span>
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<span>5. Sandbox Mode</span>
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</div>
<div chapter="Conclusion">
<span>6</span>
<span>6. In Conclusion...</span>
</div>
<div chapter="Credits">
<span>7</span>
<span>7. Credits</span>
</div>
<!-- A divider -->
<span class="nav_divider"></span>
<!-- Bonus Notes & References -->
<div modal="bonus">
<span>?</span>
<span>Bonus Boxes! (Notes)</span>
</div>
<div modal="references">
<span style="margin-top:5px">*</span>
<span>References</span>
</div>
<!-- The hover bubble -->
<span id="nav_bubble">AHHHHHH</span>
</div>
<div id="social"></div>
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</div>
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<canvas id="pencil"></canvas>
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</body>
</html>
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<!-- THE SLIDESHOW'S WORDS -->
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<!-- 0. Introduction -->
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<words id="_0_title">
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the
<br>
WISDOM and/or MADNESS
<br>
of CROWDS
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</words>
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<words id="_0_subtitle">
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playing time: 30 min • by nicky case, april 2018
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</words>
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<words id="_0_loading">
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loading...
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</words>
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<words id="_0_play">
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let's play! &rarr;
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</words>
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<words id="_0_intro">
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<div class="circle"><span>
<br><br><br>
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Sir Isaac Newton was pretty sure he was a smart cookie.
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I mean, after inventing calculus and a theory of gravity,
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he should be clever enough to do some financial investing, right?
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Anyway,
long story short, he lost $4,600,000 (in today's dollars)
in the nationwide speculation frenzy known as the South Sea Bubble of 1720.
<br><br>
As Mr. Newton later said:
<i>“I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.”</i>
<next>yeah sucks for him &rarr;</next>
</span></div>
</words>
<words id="_0_intro_2">
<div class="circle"><span>
<br>
Of course, that's not the only time markets, institutions, or entire democracies went crazy:
the <i>madness</i> of crowds.
And yet, just when you lose hope in humanity,
you see citizens rescuing each other in hurricanes,
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communities creating solutions to problems,
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movements of ordinary people fighting for a better world:
the <i>wisdom</i> of crowds!
<br><br>
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<b>But <i>why</i> do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom?</b>
And how can we, collectively, get more of the latter?
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According to the new field of <b>network science</b>,
the answer is not in the <i>individual people</i>, but in...
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<next>...their <i>connections.</i> &rarr;</next>
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</span></div>
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</words>
<!-- 1. Networks -->
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<words id="_1_tutorial_start">
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<b>Let's draw a network!</b>
Each connection represents a friendship between two people:
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</words>
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<words id="_1_tutorial_connect">
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draw to connect
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</words>
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<words id="_1_tutorial_disconnect">
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scratch to&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;disconnect
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</words>
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<words id="_1_tutorial_end">
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feel free to keep playing around, and draw whatever friendship network you want!
when you're done,
<next wiggle>let's continue &rarr;</next>
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</words>
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<words id="_1_threshold">
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But people don't just have social connections to make pretty pictures.
People look at their social connections, to understand their social world.
In this example, people look to their peers to
find out what % of their friends (not counting selves) are,
say, binge-drinkers. (img)
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</words>
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<words id="_1_threshold_instruction">
<b>Draw/erase connections, and see what happens! &rarr;</b>
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</words>
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<words id="_1_threshold_explanation">
<span style="color:#666">top-left:</span>
# of drinker friends / # of total friends &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
<br>
<span style="color:#666">top-right:</span>
% of drinker friends &rarr;
<br>
<span style="color:#666">black line:</span>
the 50% "majority" threshold &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
<br> (they'll glow if past threshold) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
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</words>
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<words id="_1_threshold_end">
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<next>cool, got it</next>
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</words>
<words id="_1_pre_puzzle">
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However, networks can <i>fool</i> people.
Just like how you see the earth as flat because you're on it,
people get wrong ideas about society because they're <i>in</i> it.
<br><br>
(BONUS BOX: OTHER CONNECTIONS)
<br><br>
For example, a 1991 study(*) showed that
“virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did.”
But that seems impossible!
How can that be?
Well, you're about to invent the answer yourself, by drawing a network.
It's time to...
<next>FOOL EVERYONE &rarr;</next>
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</words>
<words id="_1_puzzle">
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<b style="font-size:2em">PUZZLE TIME!</b>
<br>
Fool <i>everyone</i> into thinking
the majority of their friends are binge-drinkers (img)
(even though binge-drinkers are outnumbered 2-to-1)
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</words>
<words id="_1_puzzle_metric">
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<b>FOOLED:</b>
</words>
<words id="_1_puzzle_metric_2">
out of 9 people
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</words>
<words id="_1_puzzle_end">
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Congrats! You manipulated a group of students into believing
in the prevalance of an incredibly unhealthy social norm! Good going!
<next wiggle>...uh. thanks?</next>
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</words>
<words id="_1_post_puzzle">
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What you just created is called The Majority Illusion(*),
which also explains why people think their political views are consensus,
or why extremism seems more common than it actually is.
<i>Madness.</i>
<br><br>
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(BONUS BOX: a response to the books)
<br><br>
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But ideas/behaviors aren't just passively observed, they actively <i>spread</i>.
So now, let's look at something network scientists call...
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<next>“Contagions!” &rarr;</next>
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<!--<b>&larr; bonus challenge:</b> make everyone think
<i>less than half</i> of their friends are binge-drinkers-->
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</words>
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<!--words id="_1_post_puzzle_bonus">
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🙌 yay you did it 🙌
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</words-->
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<!-- 2. Simple Contagions -->
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<words id="_2_simple">
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Below, we start with one person (img) who has some information.
Some <i>mis</i>information. "Fake news", as the cool kids say.
And every day, that person spreads the rumor to their friends.
And they spread it to <i>their</i> friends. And so on.
<br><br>
<b>Run the simulation, step-by-step &darr;</b>
(p.s: you can't draw <i>while</i> the sim's running)
</words>
<words id="_2_simple_2">
Note: despite the negative name, "contagions" can be good or bad.
There's strong statistical evidence(*) that
smoking, happiness, obesity, voting patterns, and cooperation levels
are all "contagious" --
and even some evidence that suicides(*) and mass shootings(*) are, too.
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</words>
<words id="_2_simple_end">
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<next wiggle>well that's depressing &rarr;</next>
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</words>
<words id="_2_cascade">
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Indeed it is.
Anyway, <b>PUZZLE TIME!</b>
<br>
Draw a network &amp; run the simulation,
so that <i>everyone</i> gets infected with the "contagion".
(new rule: you can't cut the <i>thick</i> connections)
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</words>
<words id="_2_cascade_end">
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<next wiggle>fan-flipping-tastic &rarr;</next>
</words>
<words id="_2_post_cascade">
This madness-spreading is called an <b>"information cascade"</b>.
Mr. Newton fell for such a cascade in 1720.
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The world's financial institutions fell for such a cascade in 2008.
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But so what? You already knew ideas spread.
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However, network scientists recently found a <i>new</i>, strange kind of contagion.
And they're called...
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</words>
<words id="_2_post_cascade_end">
<next wiggle><i>Complex</i> Contagions!” &rarr;</next>
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</words>
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<!-- 3. Complex Contagions -->
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<words id="_3_complex">
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Truth may be stranger than fiction, but it doesn't sell as well.
<br><br>
<b>Simple contagions</b>, like juicy rumors or hot takes,
only need one "infected" friend to spread.
That doesn't mean the contagion <i>will</i> spread,
just that one exposure <i>can</i> be enough to spread.
This, by the way, is how <i>biological</i> contagions like viruses work.
<br><br>
<b>Complex contagions</b> are weirder.
Some things -- like norms, habits and hard-to-accept ideas --
need more social encouragement.
They need not a minimum <i>number</i> of friends to spread,
but a minimum <i>percentage</i> of friends to spread!(*)
<br><br>
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<b>On the right, a person needs <i>AT LEAST 25%</i> of their friends to
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adopt a complex fact (img) before they do.
Try "infecting" them all with <i>wisdom!</i> &rarr;</b>
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</words>
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<words id="_3_complex_2">
<b>CAUTION:</b>
just because an idea/behavior is "complex" doesn't mean it's good,
(e.g. conspiracy theories)
and just because it's "simple" doesn't mean it's bad!
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(e.g. cute cat videos)
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<br><br>
Think of it this way:
simple contagions are weeds, complex contagions are trees,
and a network is an ecosystem.
Sometimes weeds are good, sometimes trees are bad.
But if your ecosystem can <i>only</i> support weeds,
something's very wrong.
<br><br>
(BONUS: OTHER KINDS OF CONTAGIONS)
<br><br>
So, how <i>do</i> we make sure our social ecosystem is healthy?
Let's revisit...
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<next wiggle>...the cascade puzzle!</next>
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</words>
<words id="_3_cascade">
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You did this before, but now, with a <i>complex</i> contagion (img), it'll be tougher...
<br>
(note: feel free to just hit 'start' and <i>try</i> as many solutions as you want)
<br>
<b>"Infect" everyone with complex wisdom! &darr;</b>
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</words>
<words id="_3_cascade_end">
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<next wiggle>HOT DANG &rarr;</next>
</words>
<words id="_3_post_cascade">
Now, you may think: so what, complex contagions () are just simple contagions ()
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that need more connections?
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Not so fast!
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The difference between "complex" and "simple" is a difference in <i>kind</i>, not degree.
It's apples vs oranges, not apples vs more apples.
This idea will be clearer if we revisit...
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</words>
<words id="_3_post_cascade_end">
<next wiggle>...yet another puzzle! &rarr;</next>
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</words>
<words id="_3_prevent">
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Now, let's do the <i>opposite</i> of everything we've done before.
If you hit "start" below now, the contagion will just spread to everyone.
No surprise there.
But now, here's your challenge:
<b>draw a network to <i>prevent</i> the contagion from spreading to everyone! &darr;</b>
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</words>
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<words id="_3_prevent_2">
And <i>that's</i> the important difference between "simple" and "complex" contagion.
While more connections always helps spread <i>simple</i> ideas,
more connections can <i>hurt</i> the spread of <i>complex</i> ideas!
(makes you wonder 'bout the internet, hm)
And this isn't just a theoretical problem. This can be a matter of life...
</words>
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<words id="_3_prevent_end">
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<next wiggle>...or death. &rarr;</next>
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</words>
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<words id="_3_groupthink">
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The people at NASA were smart cookies.
I mean, they'd used Newton's theories to get us to the moon.
Anyway, long story short, in 1986,
<i>despite warnings from the engineers</i>,
they launched the <i>Challenger</i>,
which blew up and killed 7 people.
The immediate cause:
it was too cold that morning.
<br><br>
The less immediate cause: the managers ignored the engineers' warnings.
Why? Because of <b>groupthink</b>(*).
When a group is <i>too</i> closely knit, (as they tend to be at the top of institutions)
they become resistant to hard-to-accept information.
<br><br>
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So, that's how to get crowd madness.
But how can we "design" for crowd <i>wisdom?</i>
In short, two words:
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<next>Bonding &amp; Bridging &rarr;</next>
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</words>
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<!-- 4. Bonding & Bridging -->
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<words id="bonding_1">
&larr; Too few connections, and an idea can't spread.
<br>
Too many connections, and you get groupthink. &rarr;
</words>
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<words id="bonding_2">
<b>
Find the sweet spot, and draw a group that's <i>just</i> connected enough
to spread a complex idea! &darr;
</b>
</words>
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<words id="bonding_end">
This is called <b>bonding social capital</b>,
the strength of the connections <i>within</i> a single group.
But what about the connections...
<next wiggle>...<i>between</i> groups?</next>
</words>
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<words id="bridging_1">
As you might have guessed, <b>bridging social capital</b>
is the strength of the connections <i>between</i> groups.
This is important, because it helps groups break out of their insular echo chambers!
<br>
<b>Try to "infect" everyone with wisdom:</b>
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</words>
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<words id="bridging_end">
Like bonding, bridging social capital has a sweet spot.
(optional challenge: draw a bridge so thick that the complex contagion
<i>can't</i> pass through it!)
<br><br>
Now that we know how to "design" connections <i>within</i> and <i>between</i> groups, let's...
<next wiggle>...do BOTH. &rarr;</next>
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</words>
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<words id="bb_1">
<b style="font-size:2em">FINAL PUZZLE!</b>
<br>
Draw connections within groups (bonding) and between groups (bridging)
<i>however</i> you want, to spread wisdom to everyone:
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</words>
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<words id="bb_2">
derp derp
<next wiggle>derp derp &rarr;</next>
// "SMALL WORLD"
// e pluribus unum
// unity in diversity?
// examples
// JFK story in footnote
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</words>
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<words id="bb_small_world">
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</words>
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<!-- 5. Sandbox -->
<words id="sandbox_caption">
<b>NOTE: "Sandbox Mode" is totally optional.</b>
Feel free to skip it, or play around!(*)
When you're done, let's recap...
</words>
<words id="sandbox_next">
<next>what we learnt today!</next>
</words>
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<words id="sandbox_contagion">
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Contagion:
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</words>
<words id="sandbox_contagion_simple">
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simple
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</words>
<words id="sandbox_contagion_complex">
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complex
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</words>
<words id="sandbox_color_chooser">
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The Contagion's Color:
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</words>
<words id="sandbox_tool_chooser">
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Select a tool...
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</words>
<words id="sandbox_tool_pencil">
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Draw Network
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</words>
<words id="sandbox_tool_add">
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Add Person
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</words>
<words id="sandbox_tool_add_infected">
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Add "Infected"
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</words>
<words id="sandbox_tool_move">
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Drag Person
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</words>
<words id="sandbox_tool_delete">
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Delete Person
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</words>
<words id="sandbox_tool_clear">
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<b>CLEAR IT ALL</b>
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</words>
<words id="sandbox_shortcuts_label">
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(...or, use keyboard shortcuts!)
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_shortcuts">
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[1]: Add Person &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; [2]: Add "Infected"
<br>
[Space]: Drag &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; [Backspace]: Delete
</words>
<!-- 6. Conclusion -->
<!-- recap and CONCRETE LIFE TAKE-AWAYS. mirror intro UI -->
<words id="conclusion_1">
IN CONCLUSION:
Contagion &amp; Connections.
<next>derp</next>
</words>
<words id="conclusion_2">
<div class="circle"><span>
in the final circle
recap all stories,
HUMAN BRAIN.
<next>derp</next>
</span></div>
</words>
<words id="conclusion_3">
<div class="circle"><span>
GOOD OMENS QUOTE.
<next>derp</next>
</span></div>
</words>
<!-- 7. Credits -->
<words id="_7_credits">
CREDITS
<br>
CREDITS
<br>
CREDITS
<br>
CREDITS
<br>
CREDITS
</words>
<!-- x. misc -->
<words id="WIN">
WIN
</words>
<words id="sim_start">
&gt; start
</words>
<words id="sim_next">
&gt;&gt; next
</words>
<words id="sim_reset">
&olarr; reset
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</words>
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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<!-- BONUS BOXES (footnotes) -->
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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<!--
1. other kinds of connections
2. response to the books
3. other kinds of contagions
4. the limits - map, ecology, etc
5. books to read
-->
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<bonus id="herp">
<title>HERP DERP</title>
<description>
Herp derp HERP derp derp? Herp derp DERP herp herp derp!
</description>
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</bonus>
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<!-- - - - - - - -->
<!-- REFERENCES -->
<!-- - - - - - - -->
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<references>
</references>
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<!-- SCRIPTS -->
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