bonus box
This commit is contained in:
Nicky Case
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#modal h3{
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font-size: 1.5em;
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margin-bottom: 0.5em;
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font-size: 1.3em;
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margin-bottom: 0.7em;
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padding-top: 0.7em;
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margin-top: 1em;
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border-top: 2px solid #333;
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}
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#modal[size=small]{
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width: 640px;
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width: 700px;
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height: 300px;
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}
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#modal[size=large]{
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width: 800px;
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height: 450px;
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height: 540px;
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}
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#modal_close{
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position: absolute;
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@ -263,6 +266,12 @@ b, strong{
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margin:1.5em;
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letter-spacing: 1px;
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}
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#modal a{
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}
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#modal a:hover{
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color: #ff6060;
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}
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/* NAVIGATION */
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#navigation_container{
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609
index.html
609
index.html
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@ -84,10 +84,6 @@ MY "WHY" FOR MAKING THIS:
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<span>5</span>
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<span>5. It's A Small World</span>
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</div>
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<!--div chapter="Sandbox">
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<span>7</span>
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<span>7. Sandbox Mode</span>
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</div-->
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<div chapter="Conclusion">
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<span>6</span>
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<span>6. In Conclusion...</span>
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@ -107,11 +103,11 @@ MY "WHY" FOR MAKING THIS:
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<!-- Bonus Notes & References -->
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<div modal="bonus">
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<span>?</span>
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<span>Bonus Boxes! (Notes)</span>
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<span>Bonus Boxes!</span>
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</div>
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<div modal="references">
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<span style="margin-top: 7px; font-size: 35px;">*</span>
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<span>References</span>
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<span>Links & References</span>
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</div>
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<div modal="translations">
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<span style="margin-top:5px; position:relative;"><span style="
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@ -296,7 +292,7 @@ MY "WHY" FOR MAKING THIS:
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<words id="optional_reading">
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<div style="position:absolute; top:-5px;">
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<i>optional</i> extra bonus notes ↑
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<i>optional</i> extra bonus notes! ↑
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</div>
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<div style="position:absolute; left:216px; top:10px;">
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↓ links and references
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@ -836,40 +832,241 @@ MY "WHY" FOR MAKING THIS:
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reset & re-draw
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</words>
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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<!-- BONUS BOXES (footnotes) -->
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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<!-- - - - - - - -->
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<!-- BONUS BOXES -->
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<!-- - - - - - - -->
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<bonus id="connections">
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<h3>
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BONUS BOX: How Else Can We Be Connected?
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</h3>
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<div>
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(blah blah blah, one-directional, weighted connections, etc)
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</div>
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</bonus>
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<bonus id="books">
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<h3>
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BONUS BOX: A quick response to James Surowiecki's <i>The Wisdom of Crowds</i>
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A quick response to James Surowiecki's <i>The Wisdom of Crowds</i>
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</h3>
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<div>
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(blah blah blah)
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<img src="sdas" width="200" height="300" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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First off, I'm not dissing
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<a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds">
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this book.</a>
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It's a good book, and Surowiecki was trying to tackle the same question I am:
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<b>“why do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom?”</b>
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<br><br>
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Surowiecki's answer: crowds make good decisions when everybody is as independent as possible.
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He gives the story of a game at a county fair,
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where the rabble were invited to guess the weight of an ox.
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Surprisingly, the average of all their guesses <i>was better than any one individual guess</i>.
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But, here's the rub: the people have to guess <i>independently</i> of each other.
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If people knew the previous guesses before they put forth their own guess,
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they'd be influenced by those guesses, and all the results would be skewed.
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<br><br>
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But... I don't think "make everyone be as independent as possible" is quite right.
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Even geniuses, who we tend to mischaracterize as the most independent thinkers,
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are actually influenced deeply by others. As Sir Isaac Newton said,
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<i>“If I have seen further, it is by standing on the sholders of Giants.”</i>
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<br><br>
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So, which idea is correct?
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Does wisdom come from thinking for yourself, or thinking with others?
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As is usually the case with these kind of questions, the answer is: "yes".
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<br><br>
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So that's what I'll try to explain in this explorable explanation:
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how to get that sweet spot between independence and interdependence —
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that is, how to get a wise crowd.
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</div>
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</bonus>
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<bonus id="math">
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<bonus id="connections">
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<h3>
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BONUS BOX: Wait, Where Was The Math?
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What other kinds of connections are there?
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</h3>
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<div>
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(blah blah blah: map, extending the model with ecologies or randomness, etc)
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For the sake of simplicity, all the simulations here only have one kind of connection,
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friendship, and all the friendships are equally strong.
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But there's other kinds of connections that network scientists think about!
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For example:
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sdas" width="150" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>Directional connections.</b> Alice is the boss of Bob, but Bob is not the boss of Alice.
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Carol is the parent of Dave, but Dave is not the parent of Carol.
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Therefore, "boss" & "parent" are <i>directional</i> relationships:
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the relationship only goes one way.
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In contrast, "friends" is a <i>bidirectional</i> relationship:
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the relationship goes both ways. (well, hopefully)
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sdas" width="150" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>Weighted connections.</b> Elinor and Frankie are "friends", but not that close.
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George and Harry are super-duper Best Friends Forever.
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Even though there's a friendship connection in both cases, the second one is a stronger:
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the connections have different "weights".
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(The "weights" matter when we think about, say, how people influence each other.
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Best Friends will influence each other more than casual acquaintances.)
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sdas" width="150" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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Just remember: all the simulations in this game are wrong. The same way any map is "wrong".
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You see the map on the left? Buildings aren't actually gray featureless blocks!
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Words don't float above the city! However, maps are useful not <i>despite</i> being simplified,
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but <i>because</i> they're simplified. Same goes for simulations, or any scientific theory.
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Of <i>course</i> they're "wrong" — that's what makes them <i>useful</i>.
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</div>
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</bonus>
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<bonus id="contagions">
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<h3>
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What other kinds of contagions are there?
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</h3>
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<div>
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There's so, so many ways that network scientists can simulate "contagions".
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I'm just picking the simplest one, for educational purposes.
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But, for completeness, here's other ways you could simulate contagions:
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sdas" width="150" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>Contagions with Randomness</b>. Instead of "if your friend is infected, you'll get infected",
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you could simulate "if your friend is infected, you'll get infected <i>with an X% chance</i>".
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sdas" width="150" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>People have different contagion thresholds.</b>
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In this simulation, I'm pretending everyone has the same threshold for binge-drinking (50%) or
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volunteering (25%) or misinformation (0%). That's not true in real life, of course,
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and you could make your simulation reflect that.
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sdas" width="150" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>An ecology of contagions.</b> This is actually cutting-edge research,
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and I'm not entirely sure how one would do this.
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In my simulations, only one contagion is spreading at a time.
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But what if there were <i>multiple</i> contagions, with <i>different</i> thresholds?
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For example, a simple "madness" contagion and a complex "wisdom" contagion.
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If someone's infected with madness, can they still be infected with wisdom?
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Or vice versa?
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Can someone be infected with both?
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sdas" width="150" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>Contagions that mutate and evolve.</b>
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Ideas don't pass perfectly from one person to another the way a virus genome does.
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Like a game of Telephone, the message gets mutated with each re-telling.
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Sometimes the mutant will be more contagious than the original!
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And so, over time,
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ideas "evolve" to be more digestible,
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urban legends "evolve" to be more shocking,
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habits and behaviors "evolve" to be more copy-able.
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</div>
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</bonus>
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<bonus id="further_reading">
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<h3>
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Further Reading
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</h3>
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<div>
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This explorable explanation was just a springboard for your curiosity,
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so you can dive deeper into a vast pool of knowledge!
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So, here's two of my favorite things on networks:
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<br><br>
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<img src="sdas" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>
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Book:
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<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
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Connected</a>
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</b>
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by Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler (2009).
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A layperson-friendly yet rigorous tour of how networks affect our lives,
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for good and ill. They summarize the science, and also present some of their original findings,
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like the "Three Degrees of Influence":
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you affect not just your friends, but your friends' friends, and your friends' friends' friends!
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<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/pdf/excerpt.pdf">
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Here's a link to an excerpt.
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</a>
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sdas" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>
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Interactive:
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<a target="_blank" href="http://worrydream.com/ScientificCommunicationAsSequentialArt/">
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Collective Dynamics of Small World Networks</a>
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</b>,
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original paper by Watts & Strogatz (1998),
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turned into interactive visuals by Bret Victor in 2011.
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Slightly technical, but it's a lot easier to understand when
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paired with pictures you can play with!
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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Alternatively, if you want to play more explorable explanations about society,
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(and not necessarily about networks),
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<b>check out these other interactives I've made!</b>
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<br><br>
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<img src="sdas" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>
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<a target="_blank" href="https://mrpandey.github.io/d3graphTheory/">
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The Evolution of Trust
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</a>
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</b> by Nicky Case (2017).
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This is a game about the game theory of how cooperation arises (or not).
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You first play a game of trust,
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then play a meta-game of that, then a meta-meta-game of that...
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and discover what leads people to trust each other, or trust no one.
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sdas" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>
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<a target="_blank" href="https://mrpandey.github.io/d3graphTheory/">
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Parable of the Polygons
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</a>
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</b> by Vi Hart and Nicky Case (2014).
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A story about how harmless choices can create a harmful world.
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Based off a Nobel Prize-winning game theorist's work,
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this interactive shows how discrimination and/or diversity can arise from the bottom up.
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</div>
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</bonus>
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<!-- - - - - - - -->
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@ -879,163 +1076,449 @@ MY "WHY" FOR MAKING THIS:
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<reference>
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</reference>
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<reference id="drunk">
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<h3>
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“a 1991 study showed that virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did.”
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“virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did.”
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</h3>
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<div>
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[link]
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<a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1758185">
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“Biases in the perception of drinking norms among college students”</a> by Baer et al (1991).
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The study finds that students greatly overestimate how much their peers drink.
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And in other news, water is wet and sky is blue.
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</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="majority">
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<h3>
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“The Majority Illusion”
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</h3>
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<div>
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[link]
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[also, interactive NYT version]
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<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147617">
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“The Majority Illusion in Social Networks”</a> by Lerman et al (2016).
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In this paper, they found that the majority illusion is strongest in friendship networks
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with “heterogeneous degree distribution and disassortative structure.”
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Or, in Normal Human Words: when there are wide differences (heterogeneous)
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in the # of friends each individual person has (degree),
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and when low-friend people are friends with high-friend people (disassortative).
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<br><br>
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Another cool, related illusion:
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<a target="_blank" href="https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/04/economist-explains-why-friends-more-popular-paradox">
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The Friendship Paradox</a>,
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which is the empirical finding that, on average, your friends will have more friends than you do.
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I always used to feel lonely... but now, I have a <i>mathematical</i> excuse for feeling lonely! Hooray!
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</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="contagion">
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<h3>
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“strong statistical evidence that
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smoking, health, happiness, voting patterns, and cooperation levels
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are all contagious”
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</h3>
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<div>
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[Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler, again]
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This is all laid out in Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's
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well-written, layperson-friendly book,
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<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
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Connected</a> (2009).
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<br><br>
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But how do they know that the friendships actually <i>cause</i> changes in health, happiness, etc,
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rather than just being "mere" correlation?
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They did two clever things:
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<br><br>
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1) They used the Framingham Heart Study dataset, which tracked thousands of people for <i>generations</i>.
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The data showed that people were becoming friends first, and <i>then</i> becoming more similar.
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It's true that similarities "cause" friendships (birds of a feather flock together),
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but this proves that friendships "cause" similarities, too.
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<br><br>
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And 2) They found pairs of people where Person A named Person B as their friend,
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but Person B did <i>not</i> name Person A as their friend. Awkward.
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In those cases, they found that the "contagion" <i>only</i> flows in one direction.
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This proves that, indeed, changes in health are caused by social influence,
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rather than caused by external variables like, I dunno,
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a new McDonald's opening up in Person A & B's neighborhood.
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</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="suicides">
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<h3>
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“some evidence that suicides are [contagious], too”
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</h3>
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<div>
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[link]
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<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/42000514?seq=4#page_scan_tab_contents">
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“Suicide Contagion and the Reporting of Suicide: Recommendations from a National Workshop”</a>
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by O'Carroll et al (1994), endorsed by the frickin' Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC).
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<br><br>
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Here's what they found <i>increases</i> suicide-contagion:
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repeated, sensationalist coverage,
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reporting the exact step-by-step method of suicide,
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presenting suicide as a means to effectively accomplish ends.
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So, their CDC-endorsed recommendation to all news outlets: don't do that.
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<br><br>
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To the news outlets' credit, they've mostly adopted these guidelines on suicide-contagion.
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But less so on mass-shooting-contagion.
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See <a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["shootings"]);'>next footnote.</a>
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</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="shootings">
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|
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<h3>
|
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“some evidence that mass shootings are [contagious], too”
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</h3>
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<div>
|
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[link - also Don't Say Their Names]
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|
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<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0117259">
|
||||
“Contagion in Mass Killings and School Shootings”</a> by Towers et al (2015).
|
||||
|
||||
<br><br>
|
||||
|
||||
Just like how news outlets take caution in how they report suicides
|
||||
in order to minimize the risk of suicide-contagion,
|
||||
(see <a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["suicides"]);'>previous footnote</a>)
|
||||
many journalists/criminologists are calling on news outlets to take more responsibility
|
||||
in how they cover mass shootings,
|
||||
in order to minimize the risk of murder-contagion.
|
||||
|
||||
<br><br>
|
||||
|
||||
See: the
|
||||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.dontnamethem.org/">
|
||||
Don't Name Them</a> campaign,
|
||||
which recommends that news outlets <i>NOT</i> give fame to mass shooters by airing their name, manifestos,
|
||||
and social media profile bio —
|
||||
and instead, focus on the victims, the first responders, the civilian heroes,
|
||||
and the grieving & healing community.
|
||||
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
</reference>
|
||||
<reference id="subprime">
|
||||
|
||||
<h3>
|
||||
“The world's financial institutions fell for such a cascade in 2008.”
|
||||
</h3>
|
||||
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
[link to Cass Sunstein's Lemmings of Wall Street right after the prices plunged - not technical]
|
||||
<!-- https://newrepublic.com/article/63023/wall-streets-lemmings -->
|
||||
<a target="_blank" href="https://newrepublic.com/article/63023/wall-streets-lemmings">
|
||||
“Lemmings of Wall Street”</a> by Cass Sunstein, is a quick, non-technical read.
|
||||
Published in Oct 2008, <i>during</i> the crash,
|
||||
he looks at the whole mess through the lens of information cascades & social psychology.
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
</reference>
|
||||
<reference id="complex">
|
||||
|
||||
<h3>
|
||||
“Complex contagions are weirder.”
|
||||
</h3>
|
||||
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
[link to empirical proof of twitter complex contagion]
|
||||
[also, Granovetter's Threshold model]
|
||||
[and Dodds & Watt's Universal Contagion]
|
||||
[not to mention contrarians]
|
||||
|
||||
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.unc.edu/~fbaum/teaching/articles/Granovetter_AJS_1978.pdf">
|
||||
“Threshold Models of Collective Behavior”</a> by Granovetter (1978)
|
||||
was the first time, as far as I know, anyone described a "complex contagion" model.
|
||||
Although: 1) he didn't name it "complex contagion",
|
||||
and 2) the "thresholds" in his model are
|
||||
based on absolute # of exposure, not relative % of exposure.
|
||||
|
||||
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0180802">
|
||||
“Evidence for complex contagion models of social contagion from observational data”</a>
|
||||
by Sprague & House (2017)
|
||||
gets data to show that complex contagion does, in fact, exist. Well, on the internet, at least.
|
||||
Science is hard, okay?
|
||||
|
||||
<br><br>
|
||||
|
||||
Finally — and this paper tickles by nerd-bones —
|
||||
<a target="_blank" href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0403699.pdf">
|
||||
“Universal behavior in a generalized model of contagion”</a> by Dodds & Watts (2004)
|
||||
proposes a model that unifies <i>all</i> kinds of contagions:
|
||||
simple and complex, biological and social!
|
||||
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
</reference>
|
||||
<reference id="groupthink">
|
||||
|
||||
<h3>
|
||||
“groupthink”
|
||||
</h3>
|
||||
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
[link to Janis's Groupthink article]
|
||||
This Orwell-inspired phrase was coined by Irving L. Janis way back in 1971!
|
||||
<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100401033524/http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/macdonald/GroupThink.pdf">
|
||||
In his original article</a>,
|
||||
he investigates the Bay of Pigs fiasco (and other cases where groups of experts made terrible decisions),
|
||||
and lists groupthink's causes, symptoms, and — thankfully, some remedies.
|
||||
(for more on how to remedy groupthink, and how "small worlds" once barely
|
||||
saved the world from the drink of nuclear war, check out
|
||||
<a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["swn_jfk"]);'>this footnote</a>.)
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
</reference>
|
||||
<reference id="social_capital">
|
||||
|
||||
<h3>
|
||||
“bonding and bridging social capital”
|
||||
</h3>
|
||||
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
[link to Robert Putnam's Bowling Alone]
|
||||
These two types of social capital — "bonding" and "bridging" —
|
||||
were coined by Robert Putnam in his insightful, layperson-friendly 2000 book,
|
||||
<a target="_blank" href="http://bowlingalone.com/">
|
||||
Bowling Alone</a>. Using a bunch of data and statistics, he finds that,
|
||||
across almost <i>all</i> measures of social connectiveness, Americans are more alone than ever.
|
||||
Golly.
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
</reference>
|
||||
<reference id="bridge">
|
||||
|
||||
<h3>
|
||||
“bridging social capital has a sweet spot”
|
||||
</h3>
|
||||
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
[link to Granovetter's Strength of Weak Ties]
|
||||
[and response for complex contagion, the Weakness of Long Ties!]
|
||||
|
||||
<a target="_blank" href="https://sociology.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/the_strength_of_weak_ties_and_exch_w-gans.pdf">
|
||||
“The Strength of Weak Ties”</a> by Granovetter (1973)
|
||||
showed the world a really counterintuitive discovery –
|
||||
people get new, useful information (like job openings) not from their close friendships (strong ties),
|
||||
but from their distant acquaintances (weak ties)! This is because people in your group will mostly have the same
|
||||
information <i>you</i> do, but people <i>outside</i> your group will be more likely to have novel information.
|
||||
|
||||
<br><br>
|
||||
|
||||
So, that may lead you to think that more weak ties, more bridging, is always better
|
||||
(at least, for spreading contagions).
|
||||
But a newer paper,
|
||||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/521848?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
||||
“Complex Contagions and the Weakness of Long Ties”</a> by Centola & Macy (2007)
|
||||
shows that while Granovetter's findings hold up for simple contagions,
|
||||
they fail for complex contagions! And, in fact,
|
||||
“as adoption thresholds increase, <i>long ties can impede diffusion</i>.” [emphasis added]
|
||||
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
</reference>
|
||||
<reference id="small_world">
|
||||
|
||||
<h3>
|
||||
“the small world network”
|
||||
</h3>
|
||||
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
[link to Strogatz and Watts]
|
||||
[also the Bret Victor version]
|
||||
|
||||
// Milgram, six degrees of separation popularized
|
||||
|
||||
<br><br>
|
||||
|
||||
The "small world network" became an academic celebrity
|
||||
with the release of
|
||||
<a target="_blank" href="http://leonidzhukov.net/hse/2014/socialnetworks/papers/watts-collective_dynamics-nature_1998.pdf">
|
||||
“Collective dynamics of small-world networks”</a> by Watts & Strogatz (1998).
|
||||
// sweet spot (totally regular, random)
|
||||
I'll admit, it's a really technical paper,
|
||||
and I didn't understand it until I played
|
||||
<a target="_blank" href="http://worrydream.com/ScientificCommunicationAsSequentialArt/">
|
||||
the visual, interactive adaptation</a> by Bret Victor! (2011)
|
||||
Seriously, check that one out.
|
||||
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
</reference>
|
||||
<reference id="swn_neurons">
|
||||
|
||||
<h3>
|
||||
“[small world networks] describe how our neurons interact”
|
||||
“[small world networks] describe how our neurons are connected”
|
||||
</h3>
|
||||
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
[link plz]
|
||||
|
||||
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17079517">
|
||||
“Small-world brain networks”</a> by Bassett & Bullmore (2006).
|
||||
The authors do some magic science stuff to monkey and cat brains,
|
||||
something something something, et voila, they're small-world networks!
|
||||
|
||||
<br><br>
|
||||
...okay, this paper totally flew over my head.
|
||||
But it's got 1500+ citations, so, it's probably fine.
|
||||
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
</reference>
|
||||
<reference id="swn_creativity">
|
||||
|
||||
<h3>
|
||||
“[small world networks] give rise to collective creativity”
|
||||
</h3>
|
||||
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
[link to that Broadway and small world study. note PARABOLIC relationship]
|
||||
|
||||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/432782?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
||||
“Collaboration and Creativity: The Small World Problem”</a> by Uzzi & Spiro (2005).
|
||||
This paper analyzed the social networks of artists in the Broadway scene from 1945 to 1989,
|
||||
measured the financial & critical success of the musicals they made,
|
||||
and discovered that, yup, you're most creative when you're in a small world network!
|
||||
|
||||
<br><br>
|
||||
|
||||
Also of note: they found that “the small world effect was parabolic [upside-down U shape]”. That is:
|
||||
creativity was hurt by both too little <i>and</i> too much connectivity —
|
||||
you need a sweet spot!
|
||||
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
</reference>
|
||||
<reference id="swn_social_physics">
|
||||
|
||||
<h3>
|
||||
“[small world networks] give rise to collective problem-solving”
|
||||
</h3>
|
||||
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
[link to Social Physics book]
|
||||
|
||||
<a target="_blank" href="http://socialphysics.media.mit.edu/">
|
||||
“Social Physics”</a> by MIT Professor Alex "Sandy" Pentland (2014)
|
||||
analyzes a whole bunch of data,
|
||||
and finds that people make collective decisions best when they're connected <i>but not too connected</i>
|
||||
— a sweet spot.
|
||||
|
||||
<br><br>
|
||||
|
||||
Pentland was also the co-author of my favorite papers,
|
||||
<a target="_blank" href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/330/6004/686.short">
|
||||
“Evidence for a Collective Intelligence Factor in the Performance of Human Groups”</a> by Woolley et al (2004).
|
||||
Turns out, the secret sauce behind smart groups is "social sensitivity", or, empathy.
|
||||
(but, as Irving Janis pointed out a few decades earlier, <i>too much</i> of a
|
||||
buddy-buddy everyone-get-along feeling can lead to groupthink.
|
||||
See <a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["groupthink"]);'>this footnote</a>.)
|
||||
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
</reference>
|
||||
<reference id="swn_jfk">
|
||||
|
||||
<h3>
|
||||
“[small world networks] helped us (barely) avoid nuclear war!”
|
||||
“[small world networks] helped John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war!”
|
||||
</h3>
|
||||
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
[JFK and the Cuban Missile Crisis, his small-world team undid his earlier screw-up
|
||||
with the Bay of Pigs,
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</reference>
|
||||
<reference id="sandbox">
|
||||
<h3>
|
||||
“Sandbox Mode”
|
||||
</h3>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
pst... wanna hear a secret? those keyboard shortcuts (1,2,space,delete)
|
||||
can edit not just the simulation in sandbox mode, but <i>all</i> the simulations
|
||||
in this explorable explanation! seriously, you can go back to a different chapter,
|
||||
and edit the simulation right there.
|
||||
in fact, that's how <i>I</i> created all these puzzles!
|
||||
|
||||
Besides the NASA Challenger explosion, the most notorious example of groupthink
|
||||
was the Bay of Pigs fiasco. In 1961, US President John F. Kennedy and his team of advisors
|
||||
thought — for some reason — it would be a good idea to secretly invade Cuba and overthrow Fidel Castro.
|
||||
They failed. Actually, worse than failed: it led to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962,
|
||||
<i>the closest the world had ever been to full-scale nuclear war.</i>
|
||||
|
||||
<br><br>
|
||||
|
||||
Yup, JFK really screwed up on that one.
|
||||
|
||||
<br><br>
|
||||
|
||||
But, having learnt some hard lessons from the Bay of Pigs fiasco,
|
||||
JFK re-organized his team to avoid groupthink.
|
||||
Among many things, he:
|
||||
1) actively encouraged people to voice criticism,
|
||||
thus lowering the "contagion threshold" for alternate ideas.
|
||||
And
|
||||
2) he broke his team up into sub-groups before reconvening,
|
||||
which gave their group a "small world network"-like design!
|
||||
Together, this "group design" allowed for a healthy diversity of opinion,
|
||||
but without being too fractured — a wisdom of crowds.
|
||||
|
||||
<br><br>
|
||||
|
||||
And so, with the same <i>individuals</i> who decided the Bay of Pigs,
|
||||
but re-arranged <i>collectively</i> to decide on the Cuban Missile Crisis...
|
||||
JFK's team was able to reach a peaceful agreement with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev.
|
||||
The Soviets would remove their missiles from Cuba, and in return,
|
||||
the US would promise not to invade Cuba again.
|
||||
(and also agreed, in secret, to remove the US missiles from Turkey)
|
||||
|
||||
<br><br>
|
||||
|
||||
And that's the story of how all of humanity almost died.
|
||||
But a small world network saved the day! Sort of.
|
||||
|
||||
<br><br>
|
||||
|
||||
You can read more about this
|
||||
<a target="_blank" href="https://hbr.org/2013/11/how-john-f-kennedy-changed-decision-making">
|
||||
on Harvard Business Review</a>,
|
||||
or from
|
||||
<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100401033524/http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/macdonald/GroupThink.pdf">
|
||||
Irving Janis's original article on groupthink</a>.
|
||||
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
</reference>
|
||||
<reference id="three_degrees">
|
||||
|
||||
<h3>
|
||||
“we influence [...] our friends' friends' friends!”
|
||||
</h3>
|
||||
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
[link to Connected by Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler]
|
||||
Again, from Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's
|
||||
great, layperson-friendly book,
|
||||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
|
||||
Connected</a> (2009).
|
||||
See <a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["contagion"]);'>this footnote</a> for details on how they did their analysis.
|
||||
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
</reference>
|
||||
<reference id="flatter">
|
||||
<h3>
|
||||
“be skeptical of ideas that flatter you”
|
||||
</h3>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
yes, including all the ideas in <i>this</i> explorable explanation.
|
||||
yes, including the ideas in <i>this</i> explorable explanation.
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</reference>
|
||||
<reference id="sandbox">
|
||||
|
||||
<h3>
|
||||
★ Sandbox Mode ★
|
||||
</h3>
|
||||
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
Pst... wanna hear a secret?
|
||||
Those keyboard shortcuts (1, 2, space, delete)
|
||||
work not just in the Sandbox Mode, but in <i>all</i> the puzzles!
|
||||
Seriously, you can go back to a different chapter,
|
||||
and edit the simulation right there.
|
||||
In fact, that's how <i>I</i> created all these puzzles. Have fun!
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
</reference>
|
||||
|
||||
</span>
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ subscribe("bonus/show", function(bonus_id){
|
|||
subscribe("reference/show", function(ref_id){
|
||||
var footnote = document.querySelector("reference#"+ref_id+" > div").innerHTML.trim();
|
||||
$("#modal_content").innerHTML = footnote;
|
||||
Modal.show(false); // show small for references
|
||||
var noteLength = $("#modal_content").innerText.length; // innerTEXT, so no links
|
||||
Modal.show(noteLength>500); // variable length
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
// ESCAPE (keyboard shortcut)
|
||||
|
|
@ -22,12 +23,34 @@ window.Modal = {
|
|||
show: function(large){
|
||||
$("#modal_container").setAttribute("show","yes");
|
||||
$("#modal").setAttribute("size", large ? "large" : "small");
|
||||
$("#modal_content_container").scrollTop = 0; // scroll to top
|
||||
},
|
||||
hide: function(){
|
||||
publish("sound/button");
|
||||
$("#modal_container").removeAttribute("show");
|
||||
},
|
||||
showAll: function(thing){
|
||||
|
||||
// ALL the things, in one go!
|
||||
var html = "";
|
||||
$all(thing).forEach(function(thing){
|
||||
html += "<div>"+thing.innerHTML+"</div>";
|
||||
});
|
||||
$("#modal_content").innerHTML = html;
|
||||
|
||||
// Show in large box
|
||||
Modal.show(true);
|
||||
|
||||
}
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
$("#modal_bg").onclick = Modal.hide;
|
||||
$("#modal_close").onclick = Modal.hide;
|
||||
$("#modal_close").onclick = Modal.hide;
|
||||
|
||||
// Show big collected modals
|
||||
subscribe("modal/bonus", function(){
|
||||
Modal.showAll("bonus");
|
||||
});
|
||||
subscribe("modal/references", function(){
|
||||
Modal.showAll("reference");
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
|
@ -33,6 +33,17 @@ function Navigation(){
|
|||
})(nav, chapter);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// If it's a modal...
|
||||
var modal = nav.getAttribute("modal");
|
||||
if(modal){
|
||||
(function(nav, modal){
|
||||
nav.onclick = function(){
|
||||
publish("sound/button");
|
||||
publish("modal/"+modal);
|
||||
};
|
||||
})(nav, modal);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
});
|
||||
subscribe("slideshow/goto/",function(chapterID){
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -21,8 +21,9 @@ subscribe("prepreload", function(){
|
|||
var pre_preloader = $("#pre_preloader");
|
||||
pre_preloader.parentNode.removeChild(pre_preloader);
|
||||
|
||||
slideshow.gotoChapter("Preloader");
|
||||
//slideshow.gotoChapter("Simple-Cascade");
|
||||
//slideshow.gotoChapter("Preloader");
|
||||
slideshow.gotoChapter("Credits");
|
||||
$("#navigation").style.display = "block";
|
||||
|
||||
publish("preload");
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
Loading…
Reference in New Issue