2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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THE WISDOM AND/OR MADNESS OF CROWDS
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La Sabiduría y/o Locura de las Masas <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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< span > 0. Introducción< / span >
< / div >
< div chapter = "Networks" >
< span > 1< / span >
< span > 1. Redes< / span >
< / div >
< div chapter = "Simple" >
< span > 2< / span >
< span > 2. Contagios< / span >
< / div >
< div chapter = "Complex" >
< span > 3< / span >
< span > 3. Contagios Complejos< / span >
< / div >
< div chapter = "BB" >
< span > 4< / span >
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< span > 4. Vínculos y Puentes< / span > <!-- note: & is html for the "and" sign -->
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< div chapter = "SmallWorld" >
< span > 5< / span >
< span > 5. Es un Mundo Pequeño< / span >
< / div >
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< span > 6< / span >
< span > 6. En Conclusión...< / span >
< / div >
< div chapter = "Credits" >
< span > 7< / span >
< span > 7. Créditos< / span >
< / div >
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<!-- Preloader -->
< words id = "preloader_title" >
< div style = "font-size: 30px;" >
< span > la< / span >
< br >
< span style = "font-size: 60px;letter-spacing: 4px;" > SABIDURIA< / span >
< span style = "position:relative;top: -10px;" > y/o la< / span >
< span style = "font-size: 60px;" > LOCURA< / span >
< br >
< span style = "position: relative;top: -11px;" > de las< / span >
< br >
< span style = "font-size: 100px;line-height: 80px;position: relative;top: -15px; display:block;" > MASAS< / span >
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< div style = "color:#999" >
<!-- TRANSLATE note: comment out the line below... -->
<!-- playing time: 30 min • by nicky case, april 2018 -->
<!-- ...and UN - comment + TRANSLATE this line! -->
2018-04-29 16:42:01 +00:00
por nicky case • traducido por Gilberto Guerra • < a href = '/' > original in English< / a >
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
< / div >
< / words >
< words id = "preloader_button" >
< next > < / next >
< / words >
< words id = "preloader_loading" >
cargando...
< / words >
< words id = "preloader_play" >
¡comencemos! < div class = "rarr" > < / div >
< / words >
<!-- Introduction -->
<!--
TRANSLATE note: to make the text stay in a circle, I added lots of < br > breaks.
You may have to re-arrange the < br > 's in order to do your translation.
It shouldn't look too bad if they're slightly off, though!
Also, < b > < / b > bolds a word/phrase, and < i > < / i > italicizes a word/phrase.
-->
< words id = "intro" >
< br > < br >
Sir Isaac Newton estaba bastante seguro de que era
< br >
una persona muy lista. Quiero decir, después de inventar el cálculo y
< br >
una teoría de la gravedad, él debería de ser lo suficientemente listo como para hacer
< br >
algunas inversiones financieras, ¿cierto? Sin embargo, en resúmen, él
< br >
perdió $4,600,000 dólares (dólares actuales) en el frenesí especulativo
< br >
nacional conocido como la burbuja de los Mares del Sur, en 1720.
< br > < br >
Es por esto que Newton dijo: < i > “Puedo calcular el movimiento de los
< br >
cuerpos celestes, pero no la locura de la gente.”< / i >
< next > pobre Newton :( < div class = "rarr" > < / div > < / next >
< / words >
< words id = "intro_2" >
< div style = "height:0.5em" > < / div >
Por supuesto, aquella no es la única
< br >
ocasión en la que mercados, instituciones,
< br >
o democracias enteras se volvieron locas — la < i > locura< / i > de las
< br >
multitudes. Pero aún así, justo cuando pierdes la fé en la humanidad,
< br >
vez a ciudadanos coordinandose para rescatar a sus prójimos en
< br >
huracanes, comunidades creando soluciones a problemas,
< br >
gente luchando por un mundo mejor — ¡la < i > sabiduría< / i > de las masas!
< div style = "height:0.9em" > < / div >
< b > Pero ¿< i > por qué< / i > algunas multitudes recurren a la locura, o a la sabiduría?< / b > No existe una teoría
< br >
que pueda explicar todo, pero creo que un nuevo campo de estudio,
< br >
< b > análisis de redes< / b > , puede guiarnos! Su idea principal es esta: para
< br >
entender a las masas, en lugar de observar a las personas de forma
< br >
< i > individual< / i > , deberíamos observar...
< next > ...a sus < i > relaciones< / i > . < div class = "rarr" > < / div > < / next >
< / words >
<!-- Networks -->
< words id = "networks_tutorial_start" >
< b > ¡Dibujemos una red!< / b >
Cada conexión representa una amistad entre dos personas:
< / words >
< words id = "networks_tutorial_connect" >
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traza una línea para conectarlas
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< / words >
< words id = "networks_tutorial_disconnect" >
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cruza la línea para desconectarlas
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< / words >
< words id = "networks_tutorial_end" >
cuando termines de hacer garabatos y jugar,
< next wiggle > continuemos < div class = "rarr" > < / div > < / next >
< / words >
< words id = "networks_threshold" >
Las conexiones sociales no solamente sirven para tener fotos bonitas.
La gente < i > recurre< / i > a sus conexiones sociales para entender su alrededor.
Por ejemplo, las personas recurren a su red de amistades para
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saber < b > qué porcentaje de sus amigos< / b > (sin contarse a ellos mismos) son,
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digamos, bebedores compulsivos. < icon name = "yellow" > < / icon >
< / words >
< words id = "networks_threshold_instruction" >
< b > ¡Crea y elimina conexiones para ver lo que sucede!< div class = "rarr" > < / div > < / b >
< / words >
< words id = "networks_threshold_end" >
< next > ¡entendido!< / next >
< / words >
< words id = "networks_pre_puzzle" >
Sin embargo, las redes pueden < i > engañar a la gente< / i > .
Así como la tierra puede parecer plana porque estamos en su superficie
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la gente puede tener ideas erróneas sobre la sociedad porque estamos < i > dentro< / i > de ella.
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< / words >
< words id = "optional_reading" >
< div style = "position:absolute; top:5px;" >
< i > opcional< / i > ¡notas extras! ↑
< / div >
< div style = "position:absolute; left:216px; top:10px;" >
↓ enlaces y referencias
< / div >
< / words >
< words id = "networks_pre_puzzle_2" >
< bon id = "books" > < / bon >
< br >
Por ejemplo, un estudio de 1991< ref id = "drunk" > < / ref > mostró que
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“prácticamente, todos los estudiantes [de universidad] reportaron que sus amigos consumían más alcohol que ellos.”
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¡Pero eso es imposible!
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¿Cómo puede ser eso?
Bueno, estás a punto de descubrir la respuesta, creando una red.
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Es tiempo de...
< next > ENGAÑAR A TODOS < div class = "rarr" > < / div > < / next >
< / words >
< words id = "networks_puzzle" >
< b style = "font-size:2em" > ¡HORA DE UN RETO!< / b >
< br >
Engaña < i > a todos< / i > haciéndoles creer
que la mayoría de sus amigos (al menos el 50%) son bebedores impulsivos < icon name = "yellow" > < / icon >
(¡Observa que las personas que no toman superan en número a los bebedores impulsivos!)
< / words >
< words id = "networks_puzzle_metric" >
< b > ENGAÑADO A:< / b >
< / words >
< words id = "networks_puzzle_metric_2" >
de 9 personas
< / words >
< words id = "networks_puzzle_end" >
¡Felicidades! Manipulaste a un grupo de estudiantes para que crean
en la prevalencia de una norma social sumamente dañina. ¡Bien hecho!
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< next wiggle > ...ehm. ¿Gracias?< / next >
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< / words >
< words id = "networks_post_puzzle" >
Lo que acabas de crear se llama la Ilusión de la Mayoría< ref id = "majority" > < / ref > ,
la cual también explica por qué la gente piensa que sus puntos de vista política son un consenso,
o por qué el extremismo aparenta ser más común de lo que realmente es.
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< i > Una locura.< / i >
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< bon id = "connections" > < / bon >
Pero las personas no solamente < i > observan< / i > pasivamente las ideas y los comportamientos de otros,
también los < i > imitan< / i > activamente.
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Ahora, veamos algo que los científicos llaman...
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< next > ¡"Contagios"! < div class = "rarr" > < / div > < / next >
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< / words >
<!-- Simple Contagions -->
< words id = "simple_simple" >
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< i > Pongamos aparte lo del "límite" por ahora.< / i >
Abajo: está una persona < icon name = "red" > < / icon > con información sobre algo.
< i > Des< / i > información. "Fake news", como le dicen los chicos en onda.
Y cada día, esa persona esparce el rumor, como un virus, a sus amigos.
Y ellos lo esparcen a < i > sus< / i > amigos, y así sucesivamente.
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< br >
< b >
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¡Comenzar la simulación! < div class = "darr" > < / div >
(p.d.: no puedes dibujar < i > mientras< / i > el simulador se está ejecutando)
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< / b >
< / words >
< words id = "simple_simple_2" >
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Nota: A pesar del nombre negativo, los "contagios" pueden ser buenos o malos (o neutrales o ambíguos).
Existe fuerte evidencia estadística< ref id = "contagion" > < / ref > que indica que
el fumar, la salud, la felicidad, los patrones de voto, y la disposición a la cooperación
son todos "contagiosos" --
y hay incluso evidencia de que los suicidios< ref id = "suicides" > < / ref > y los tiroteos< ref id = "shootings" > < / ref > también lo son.
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< / words >
< words id = "simple_simple_end" >
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< next wiggle > pero qué deprimente < div class = "rarr" > < / div > < / next >
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< / words >
< words id = "simple_cascade" >
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Sí que lo es.
Pero bueno, es < b > ¡HORA DE OTRO RETO!< / b >
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< br >
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Dibuja una red y corre la simulación,
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para que < i > todos< / i > se infecten con el "contagio".
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< br >
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(Nueva regla: no puedes cortar las conexiones < i > gruesas< / i > )
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< / words >
< words id = "simple_cascade_end" >
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< next wiggle > ¡excelente! < div class = "rarr" > < / div > < / next >
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< / words >
< words id = "simple_post_cascade" >
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Esta propagación de desinformación se llama < b > "cascada informativa"< / b > .
Newton fue víctima de ella en 1720.
Las instituciones financieras del mundo fueron víctimas de ella en el 2008.< ref id = "subprime" > < / ref >
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< br > < br >
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Sin embargo: < i > esta simulación es incorrecta.< / i >
La mayoría de las ideas < i > no< / i > se esparcen como lo hacen los virus.
Para muchas creencias y comportamientos, necesitas estar "expuesto" al contagio más de una vez
para que seas "infectado".
Es por eso que los científicos han desarrollado una nueva y mejor forma de
describir cómo las ideas y los comportamientos se esparcen, y le llaman...
< next wiggle > “¡Contagios < i > Complejos< / i > !” < div class = "rarr" > < / div > < / next >
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< / words >
<!-- Complex Contagions -->
< words id = "complex_complex" >
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¡Traigamos de vuelta el ejemplo con los "límites" y los bebedores compulsivos! < icon name = "yellow" > < / icon >
Cuando jugaste con esto la primera vez, las personas no cambiaron su comportamiento.
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< br > < br >
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Ahora veamos lo que pasaría si la gente comenzara a tomar,
< i > ¡cuando al menos el 50% de sus amigos lo hacen!< / i >
< b > Antes de que empieces la simulación, piensa en lo que < i > debería< / i > de pasar.< / b >
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< br > < br >
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< b > ¡Ahora corre la simulación y observa lo que pasa en realidad! < div class = "rarr" > < / div > < / b >
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< / words >
< words id = "complex_complex_2" >
< span style = "line-height:1.3em; display:block;" >
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A diferencia del contagio de "fake news" < icon name = "red" > < / icon > anterior,
¡este contagio < icon name = "yellow" > < / icon > < i > no< / i > afecta a todos!
Las primeras personas que se "infectan" lo hacen, porque a pesar de que solamente están expuestas a un
bebedor compulsivo, ese bebedor compulsivo es el 50% de sus amigos. (sí, son muy solitarios)
En contraste, la persona cerca del final de la cadena < i > no< / i > fue "infectado",
porque mientras que fue expuesto a un amigo que es un bebedor compulsivo,
no se excedió el límite del 50%.
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< div style = "height:0.75em" > < / div >
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El porcentaje < i > relativo< / i > de amigos "infectados" importa.
< i > Esta< / i > es la diferencia entre la teoría de < b > contagios complejos< / b > < ref id = "complex" > < / ref > ,
y nuestra teoría reduccionista de < b > contagios simples< / b > que se transmiten como un virus.
(podrías decir que los "contagios simples" son contagios en donde no hay resistencia a la infección)
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< div style = "height:0.75em" > < / div >
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Sin embargo, los contagios no son necesariamente malos —
así que basta de la < i > locura< / i > de las masas, ¿qué hay de...
< next > ...la < i > sabiduría< / i > de las masas?< / next >
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< / span >
< / words >
< words id = "complex_complex_3" >
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En este caso tenemos a una persona < icon name = "blue" > < / icon > que es voluntaria para... no lo sé,
rescatar personas en huracanes, o dar clases a niños de bajos recursos en su comunidad, o algo genial como eso.
El punto es que es un contagio complejo "bueno".
Esta vez, digamos, hay un umbral del 25% —
las personas están dispuestas a ayudar, pero solo si más del 25% de sus amigos también lo hacen.
Hey, es más sencillo hacer buenas acciones en conjunto.
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< br > < br >
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< b > ← ¡"Infecta" a todos con buenas vibras!< / b >
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< / words >
< words id = "complex_complex_3_end" >
< span style = "line-height:1.3em; display:block;" >
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< b > NOTA< / b > : ¡El voluntareado es solo < i > uno< / i > de muchos contagios complejos!
Otros incluyen: participación electoral, hábitos,
cuestionar tus creencias,
tomar tiempo para entender un tema complejo — cualquier cosa
que necesite más de una "exposición".
Los contagios complejos no son necesariamente inteligentes,
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Complex contagions aren't < i > necessarily< / i > wise,
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pero ser sabio es
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but being wise is a complex contagion.
< div style = "height:0.75em" > < / div >
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(Así que, ¿cuáles son ejemplos reales de contagio < i > simple< / i > ?)
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Usualmente trivia como "el tlacuache tiene 13 pezones"< ref id = "possum" > < / ref > )
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< bon id = "contagions" > < / bon >
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Ahora, para < i > realmente< / i > mostrar el poder y la extrañeza de los contagios complejos, recapitulemos...
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< next > ...un reto anterior < div class = "rarr" > < / div > < / next >
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< / span >
< / words >
< words id = "complex_cascade" >
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¿Recuerdas esto? Esta vez con un contagio < i > complejo< / i > < icon name = "blue" > < / icon > será un poco más difícil...
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< br >
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< b > ¡Intenta "infectar" a todos con sabiduría compleja! < div class = "darr" > < / div > < / b >
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< / words >
< words id = "complex_cascade_feel_free" >
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(puedes presionar "iniciar" e < i > intentar< / i > encontrar cuantas soluciones quieras)
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< / words >
< words id = "complex_cascade_end" >
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< next wiggle > MIRA NADA MAS < div class = "rarr" > < / div > < / next >
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< / words >
< words id = "complex_post_cascade" >
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Puedes pensar que solamente necesitas seguir añadiendo conexiones para propagar cualquier contagio,
sea "complejo" o "simple", bueno o malo, sabio o loco.
¿Pero es eso cierto? Veámoslo...
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< / words >
< words id = "complex_post_cascade_end" >
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< next wiggle > ...en un reto pasado < div class = "rarr" > < / div > < / next >
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< / words >
< words id = "complex_prevent" >
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Si presionas "iniciar", el contagio complejo < icon name = "blue" > < / icon > llegará a todos.
Esto no es nada nuevo.
Pero ahora, hagamos lo < i > opuesto< / i > a lo que hemos hecho hasta ahora:
< b > ¡crear una red para < i > prevenir< / i > que el contagio infecte a todos! < div class = "darr" > < / div > < / b >
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< / words >
< words id = "complex_prevent_2" >
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¿Lo vez?
Mientras que más interacciones siempre ayudan a esparcir ideas < i > simples< / i > ,
< b > ¡más conexiones pueden perjudicar el esparcimiento de ideas < i > complejas< / i > !< / b >
(¿no te hace esto pensar sobre el internet?)
Y no es solo un problema teorético. Puede ser un caso de vida...
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< / words >
< words id = "complex_prevent_end" >
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< next wiggle > ... o muerte. < div class = "rarr" > < / div > < / next >
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< / words >
< words id = "complex_groupthink" >
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Los empleados de la NASA son muy inteligentes.
Quiero decir, usaron las teorías de Newton para llevarnos a la luna.
Pero bueno, en resumen, en 1986,
< i > a pesar de las advertencias de los ingenieros,< / i > ,
el cohete < i > Challenger< / i > fue lanzado,
y a poco tiempo del lanzamiento, explotó, causando la muerte de 7 personas.
La causa inmediata:
Hacía mucho frío aquella mañana.
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< div style = "height:0.9em" > < / div >
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La causa secundaria: los gerentes ignoraron las advertencias de los ingenieros.
¿Por qué? Debido al < b > pensamiento de grupo (groupthink)< / b > < ref id = "groupthink" > < / ref > .
Cuando un grupo es < i > muy< / i > cerrado (como lo son los grupos de altos ejecutivos)
los integrantes se oponen a ideas complejas que van en contra de sus opiniones o ego.
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< div style = "height:0.9em" > < / div >
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Así es como las instituciones son víctimas de la locura de las masas.
Pero entonces, ¿cómo podemos "diseñar" para fomentar la < i > sabiduría< / i > de las masas?
Dos palabras:
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< next > Vínculos y Puentes < div class = "rarr" > < / div > < / next >
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< / words >
<!-- Bonding & Bridging -->
< words id = "bonding_1" >
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← Si hay muy pocas conexiones, una idea no se puede esparcir.
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< br >
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Si hay muchas conexiones, existe pensamiento de grupo. < div class = "rarr" > < / div >
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< / words >
< words id = "bonding_2" >
< b >
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Crea un grupo que llegue al punto óptimo:
¡lo suficientemente conectado como para esparcir una idea compleja!
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< div class = "darr" > < / div >
< / b >
< / words >
< words id = "bonding_end" >
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Sencillo, ¿verdad?
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Al número de conexiones < i > dentro< / i > de un grupo se le llama < b > capital social de vínculos< / b > < ref id = "social_capital" > < / ref > (bonding social capital).
¿Pero qué hay de las conexiones...
< next wiggle > ...< i > entre< / i > grupos?< / next >
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< / words >
< words id = "bridging_1" >
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Como ya te habrás imaginado,
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al número de conexiones < i > entre< / i > grupos se le llama
< b > capital social puente< / b > (bridging social capital).
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¡Esto es importante, porque ayuda a los grupos a salir de sus cajas de resonancia!
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< br >
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< b > Construye un puente para "infectar" a todos con sabiduría compleja:< / b >
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< / words >
< words id = "bridging_end" >
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Para los puentes, también hay un punto óptimo.< ref id = "bridge" > < / ref >
(reto extra: ¡intenta dibujar tantos puentes que los contagios complejos
< i > no< / i > se puedan esparcir!)
Ahora que ya sabemos como "diseñar" conexiones < i > dentro< / i > y < i > entre grupos< / i > ...
< next wiggle > ¡diseñemos para AMBOS al mismo tiempo!< / next >
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< / words >
< words id = "bb_1" >
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< b style = "font-size:2em" > ¡RETO FINAL!< / b >
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< br >
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Dibuja conexiones dentro de grupos (vínculos) y entre grupos (puentes)
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para que la sabiduría se esparza a toda la multitud:
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< / words >
< words id = "bb_2" >
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¡Felicidades, acabas de crear tu propio tipo especial de red!
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Las redes con la mezcla adecuada de vínculos y puentes
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son sumamente importantes, y se les llaman...
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< next wiggle > "redes de mundo pequeño" (Small World Networks)< div class = "rarr" > < / div > < / next >
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< / words >
< words id = "bb_small_world_1" >
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< i > "Unidad sin uniformidad". "Diversidad sin división". "E Pluribus Unum: de muchos, uno".< / i >
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< br >
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No importa cómo sea dicho,
las personas a través de distintos tiempos y culturas llegan a la misma conclusión:
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< b >
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una sociedad saludable necesita el número correcto de vínculos < i > dentro< / i > de grupos
y de puentes < i > entre< / i > grupos.
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< / b >
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Es decir:
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< / words >
< words id = "bb_small_world_2" >
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No así...
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< br >
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(porque las ideas no pueden extenderse)
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< / words >
< words id = "bb_small_world_3" >
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ni así...
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< br >
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(porque terminarás con pensamiento de grupo)
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< / words >
< words id = "bb_small_world_4" >
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...pero < i > ASI:< / i >
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< / words >
< words id = "bb_small_world_5" >
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Los científicos ahora tienen una definición matemática para esta sabiduría milenaria:
la < b > red de mundo pequeño< / b > < ref id = "small_world" > < / ref > .
Esta mezcla óptima de vínculos y puentes describe como
están conectadas nuestras neuronas< ref id = "swn_neurons" > < / ref > ,
promueve la creatividad colectiva< ref id = "swn_creativity" > < / ref >
y la resolución de problemas,< ref id = "swn_social_physics" > < / ref > ,
¡e incluso ayudó al presidente de los EE.UU. John F. Kennedy a evitar (por un pelo) una guerra nuclear!< ref id = "swn_jfk" > < / ref >
Desde luego que las redes de mundo pequeño son muy importantes.
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< / words >
< words id = "bb_small_world_end" >
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< next > de acuerdo, vamos a concluir... < div class = "rarr" > < / div > < / next >
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< / words >
<!-- Sandbox -->
< words id = "sandbox_caption" >
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(pst... ¿te digo un secreto?< ref id = "sandbox" > < / ref > )
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< / words >
< words id = "sandbox_contagion" >
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Contagio:
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< / words >
< words id = "sandbox_contagion_simple" >
simple
< / words >
< words id = "sandbox_contagion_complex" >
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complejo
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< / words >
< words id = "sandbox_color_chooser" >
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Color del Contagio:
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< / words >
< words id = "sandbox_tool_chooser" >
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Elige una herramienta...
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< / words >
< words id = "sandbox_tool_pencil" >
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Dibujar Red
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< / words >
< words id = "sandbox_tool_add" >
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Agregar Persona
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< / words >
< words id = "sandbox_tool_add_infected" >
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Agregar "Infectado"
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< / words >
< words id = "sandbox_tool_move" >
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Arrastrar Persona
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< / words >
< words id = "sandbox_tool_delete" >
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Borrar Persona
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< / words >
< words id = "sandbox_tool_clear" >
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< b > BORRAR TODO< / b >
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< / words >
< words id = "sandbox_shortcuts_label" >
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(...o, ¡usa los atajos de teclado!)
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< / words >
< words id = "sandbox_shortcuts" >
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[1]: Agregar Persona [2]: Agregar "Infectado"
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< br >
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[Espacio]: Arrastrar [Backspace]: Borrar
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< / words >
<!-- Conclusion -->
< words id = "conclusion_1" >
< div style = "font-size: 30px;" >
IN CONCLUSION: it's all about...
< / div >
< div style = "
width: 100%;
position: absolute;
font-size: 88px;
top: 20px;
line-height: 100px; display:block;
">
Contagions & Connections
< / div >
< div style = "
width: 710px;
position: absolute;
top: 125px;
left: 250px;
">
< b > Contagions:< / b >
Like how neurons pass signals in a brain,
people pass beliefs & behaviors in a society.
Not only do we influence our friends,
we also influence our friends' friends, and even our friends' friends' friends!< ref id = "three_degrees" > < / ref >
(“be the change you wanna see in the world” etc etc)
But, like neurons, it's not just signals that matter, it's also...
< / div >
< div style = "
width: 710px;
position: absolute;
top: 275px;
left: 250px;
">
< b > Connections:< / b >
Too few connections and complex ideas can't spread.
Too < i > many< / i > connections and complex ideas get crushed by groupthink.
The trick is to build a small world network, the optimal mix of
bonding and bridging: < i > e pluribus unum.< / i >
< / div >
< div style = "
width: 350px;
position: absolute;
top: 410px;
left: 220px;
text-align: center;
color: #999;
">
(wanna make your own simulations?
check out Sandbox Mode, by clicking the (★) button below!)
< / div >
< div style = "
width: 400px;
position: absolute;
top: 395px;
right: 0px;
text-align: right;
">
So, what about our question from the very beginning?
Why < i > do< / i > some crowds turn to...
< / div >
< div style = "
width: 300px;
position: absolute;
top: 460px;
right: 0px;
">
< next > ...wisdom and/or madness?< / next >
< / div >
< / words >
< words id = "conclusion_2" >
< span style = "line-height:1.4em; display:block;" >
< div style = "height:0.5em" > < / div >
From Newton to NASA to
< br >
network science, we've covered a lot here
< br >
today. Long story short, the madness of crowds
< br >
is not necessarily due to the < i > individual people< / i > , but due
< br >
to how we're trapped in a network's sticky web.
< div style = "height:0.9em" > < / div >
That < i > does NOT< / i > mean abandoning personal responsibility, for
< br >
we're also the < i > weavers< / i > of that web. So, improve your contagions:
< br >
be skeptical of ideas that flatter you< ref id = "flatter" > < / ref > , spend time understanding
< br >
complex ideas. And, improve your connections: bond with similar
< br >
folk, but also build bridges across cultural/political divides.
< div style = "height:0.9em" > < / div >
We can weave a wise web. Sure, it's harder than doodling
< br >
lines on a screen...
< next > ...but so, so worth it.< / next >
< / span >
< / words >
< words id = "conclusion_3" >
< i >
“The great triumphs and tragedies of history are caused,
not by people being fundamentally good or fundamentally bad,
but by people being fundamentally people.”
< / i >
< br >
< span style = "position:relative; top:5px" > ~< / span > Neil Gaiman & Terry Pratchett
< div style = "height:0.8em" > < / div >
< next small > < 3< / next >
< / words >
<!-- Credits -->
< words id = "credits" >
< div style = "text-align:center; color:#fff; letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 24px; line-height: 27px;" >
< span style = "color:#777; position:relative; top:5px;" >
created by< / span >
< div style = "font-size: 3em; line-height: 1.0em;" >
NICKY CASE< / div >
< a target = "_blank" href = "http://ncase.me" style = "text-decoration:none" >
play my other shtuff< / a > ·
< a target = "_blank" href = "https://twitter.com/ncasenmare" style = "text-decoration:none" >
follow my tweeter< / a >
< br > < br >
< span style = "color:#777; position:relative; top:5px; display: inline-block; margin-top: 15px;" >
lots of love and thanks to< / span >
< div style = "font-size: 3em; line-height: 1.0em;" >
MY PATREON SUPPORTERS< / div >
< a onclick = 'publish("reference/show", ["supporters"]);' >
see names & drawings of supporters< / a > ·
< a onclick = 'publish("reference/show", ["playtesters"]);' >
see playtesters< / a >
< br >
< a target = "_blank" href = "https://www.patreon.com/ncase" style = "text-decoration:none" >
help me make more like this! < 3< / a >
< br > < br >
< span style = "display: inline-block; margin-top: 15px;" >
♫ music is
< a target = "_blank" href = "http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Komiku/Tale_on_the_Late/" style = "text-decoration:none" >
"Friends 2018" and "Friends 2068"< / a >
by Komiku
< br >
< /> < i > Crowds< / i > is
< a target = "_blank" href = "https://github.com/ncase/crowds" style = "text-decoration:none" >
fully open source< / a >
< / span >
< br >
< bon id = "further_reading" > < / bon >
< / div >
< / words >
<!-- x. misc -->
< words id = "WIN" >
WIN
< / words >
< words id = "sim_start" >
start simulation
< / words >
< words id = "sim_stop" >
reset & re-draw
< / words >
< words id = "translations_exist" >
Fan-made translations:
< / words >
< words id = "translations_do_not_exist" >
<!-- There's no need to TRANSLATE this line since, well, -->
<!-- it'll only show up if no translations exist -->
What the, no fan-made translations exist yet?!
< / words >
< words id = "translations_add" >
(add your own!)
< / words >
<!-- - - - - - - -->
<!-- BONUS BOXES -->
<!-- - - - - - - -->
<!--
Sorry, not done yet! These Bonus Boxes need you to TRANSLATE, too:
(And then afterwards, the final thing, translate the References)
-->
< bonus id = "books" >
< h3 >
A quick response to James Surowiecki's < i > The Wisdom of Crowds< / i >
< / h3 >
< div >
< img src = "sprites/bonus/surowieki.jpg" width = "200" height = "300" style = "float:left; margin-right:1em" / >
First off, I'm not dissing
< a target = "_blank" href = "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds" >
this book.< / a >
It's a good book, and Surowiecki was trying to tackle the same question I am:
< b > “why do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom?”< / b >
< br > < br >
Surowiecki's answer: crowds make good decisions when everybody is as independent as possible.
He gives the story of a county fair,
where the townsfolk were invited to guess the weight of an ox.
Surprisingly, the average of < i > all< / i > their guesses was better than any < i > one< / i > guess< / i > .
But, here's the rub: the people have to guess < i > independently< / i > of each other.
Otherwise,
they'd be influenced by earlier incorrect guesses,
and the average answer would be highly skewed.
< br > < br >
But... I don't think "make everyone as independent as possible" is the full answer.
Even geniuses, who we mischaracterize as the most independent thinkers,
are deeply influenced by others. As Sir Isaac Newton said,
< i > “If I have seen further, it is by standing on the sholders of Giants.”< / i >
< br > < br >
So, which idea is correct?
Does wisdom come from thinking for yourself, or thinking with others?
The answer is: "yes".
< br > < br >
So that's what I'll try to explain in this explorable explanation:
how to get that sweet spot between independence and interdependence —
that is, how to get a wise crowd.
< / div >
< / bonus >
< bonus id = "connections" >
< h3 >
What other kinds of connections are there?
< / h3 >
< div >
For the sake of simplicity,
my simulations pretend that people can only be connected through friendships,
and that all friendships are equal.
But network scientists < i > do< / i > consider other ways we can be connected, such as:
< div style = "clear:both" > < / div >
< br >
< img src = "sprites/bonus/connection1.png" width = "250" height = "150" style = "float:left; margin-right:1em" / >
< b > Directional connections.< / b > Alice is the boss of Bob, but Bob is not the boss of Alice.
Carol is the parent of Dave, but Dave is not the parent of Carol.
"Boss" & "parent" are < i > directional< / i > relationships:
the relationship only goes one way.
In contrast, "friends" is a < i > bidirectional< / i > relationship:
the relationship goes both ways. (well, hopefully)
< div style = "clear:both" > < / div >
< br >
< img src = "sprites/bonus/connection2.png" width = "250" height = "150" style = "float:left; margin-right:1em" / >
< b > Weighted connections.< / b > Elinor and Frankie are mere acquaintances.
George and Harry are Best Friends Forever.
Even though there's a "friendship" connection in both cases, the second one is stronger.
We say that these two connections have different "weights".
< div style = "clear:both" > < / div >
< br >
< img src = "sprites/bonus/map.png" width = "200" height = "200" style = "float:left; margin-right:1em" / >
Just remember: < b > all these simulations are wrong.< / b > The same way any map is "wrong".
You see the map on the left? Buildings aren't gray featureless blocks!
Words don't float above the city! However, maps are useful not < i > despite< / i > being simplified,
but < i > because< / i > they're simplified. Same goes for simulations, or any scientific theory.
Of < i > course< / i > they're "wrong" — that's what makes them < i > useful< / i > .
< / div >
< / bonus >
< bonus id = "contagions" >
< h3 >
What other kinds of contagions are there?
< / h3 >
< div >
There are so, so many ways that network scientists can simulate "contagions"!
I picked the simplest one, for educational purposes.
But here's other ways you could do it:
< div style = "clear:both" > < / div >
< br >
< img src = "sprites/bonus/contagion1.png" width = "250" height = "150" style = "float:left; margin-right:1em" / >
< b > Contagions with Randomness< / b > .
Being "exposed" to a contagion doesn't < i > guarantee< / i > you'll be infected,
it only makes it more < i > likely< / i > .
< div style = "clear:both" > < / div >
< br >
< img src = "sprites/bonus/contagion2.png" width = "250" height = "150" style = "float:left; margin-right:1em" / >
< b > People have different contagion thresholds.< / b >
My simulations pretend that everyone has the same threshold for binge-drinking (50%) or
volunteering (25%) or misinformation (0%).
Of course, that's not true in real life, and you could make your sim reflect that.
< div style = "clear:both" > < / div >
< br >
< img src = "sprites/bonus/contagion3.png" width = "250" height = "150" style = "float:left; margin-right:1em" / >
< b > An ecology of contagions.< / b >
What if there were < i > multiple< / i > contagions, with < i > different< / i > thresholds?
For example, a simple "madness" contagion and a complex "wisdom" contagion.
If someone's infected with madness, can they still be infected with wisdom?
Or vice versa?
Can someone be infected with both?
< div style = "clear:both" > < / div >
< br >
< img src = "sprites/bonus/contagion4.png" width = "250" height = "150" style = "float:left; margin-right:1em" / >
< b > Contagions that mutate and evolve.< / b >
Ideas don't pass perfectly from one person to another the way a virus does.
Like a game of Telephone, the message gets mutated with each re-telling —
and sometimes the mutant will be more infectious than the original!
So, over time, ideas "evolve" to be more catchy, copy-able, contagious.
< div style = "clear:both" > < / div >
< / div >
< / bonus >
< bonus id = "further_reading" >
< h3 >
I wanna learn more! What else can I read and/or play?
< / h3 >
< div >
This explorable explanation was just a springboard for your curiosity,
so you can dive deeper into a vast pool of knowledge!
Here's more stuff on networks or social systems:
< br > < br >
< img src = "sprites/bonus/connected.png" width = "200" height = "200" style = "float:left; margin-right:1em" / >
< b > Book:< / b >
< a target = "_blank" href = "http://www.connectedthebook.com/" >
Connected< / a >
by Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler (2009).
An accessible tour of how our networks affect our lives, for good or ill.
< a target = "_blank" href = "http://www.connectedthebook.com/pdf/excerpt.pdf" >
Here's an excerpt: Preface & Chapter 1
< / a >
< div style = "clear:both" > < / div >
< br >
< img src = "sprites/bonus/trust.png" width = "200" height = "200" style = "float:left; margin-right:1em" / >
< b > Interactive:< / b >
< a target = "_blank" href = "http://ncase.me/trust/" >
The Evolution of Trust< / a > by Nicky Case (me) (2017).
A game about the game theory of how cooperation is built... or destroyed.
< div style = "clear:both" > < / div >
< br >
< img src = "sprites/bonus/polygons.png" width = "200" height = "200" style = "float:left; margin-right:1em" / >
< b > Interactive:< / b >
< a target = "_blank" href = "http://ncase.me/polygons/" >
Parable of the Polygons< / a > by Vi Hart and Nicky Case (also me) (2014).
A story about how harmless choices can create a harmful world.
< div style = "clear:both" > < / div >
< br >
< img src = "sprites/bonus/ee.png" width = "200" height = "200" style = "float:left; margin-right:1em" / >
Or, if you just want to see a whole gallery of interactive edu-things, here's
< a target = "_blank" href = "http://explorabl.es/" >
Explorable Explanations< / a > ,
a hub for learning through play!
< div style = "clear:both" > < / div >
< / div >
< / bonus >
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<!-- REFERENCES -->
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Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE:
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< reference id = "drunk" >
< h3 >
“virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did.”
< / h3 >
< div >
< a target = "_blank" href = "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1758185" >
“Biases in the perception of drinking norms among college students”< / a > by Baer et al (1991)
< / div >
< / reference >
< reference id = "majority" >
< h3 >
“The Majority Illusion”
< / h3 >
< div >
< a target = "_blank" href = "http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147617" >
“The Majority Illusion in Social Networks”< / a > by Lerman et al (2016).
< br >
Related: < a target = "_blank" href = "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendship_paradox" >
The Friendship Paradox< / a > .
< / div >
< / reference >
< reference id = "contagion" >
< h3 >
“strong statistical evidence that
smoking, health, happiness, voting patterns, and cooperation levels
are all contagious”
< / h3 >
< div >
From Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's
wonderfully-written, layperson-accessible book,
< a target = "_blank" href = "http://www.connectedthebook.com/" >
Connected< / a > (2009).
< / div >
< / reference >
< reference id = "suicides" >
< h3 >
“some evidence that suicides are [contagious], too”
< / h3 >
< div >
< a target = "_blank" href = "http://www.jstor.org/stable/42000514?seq=4#page_scan_tab_contents" >
“Suicide Contagion and the Reporting of Suicide: Recommendations from a National Workshop”< / a >
by O'Carroll et al (1994), endorsed by the frickin' Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC).
< / div >
< / reference >
< reference id = "shootings" >
< h3 >
“some evidence that mass shootings are [contagious], too”
< / h3 >
< div >
< a target = "_blank" href = "http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0117259" >
“Contagion in Mass Killings and School Shootings”< / a > by Towers et al (2015).
< br > < br >
Also see: the
< a target = "_blank" href = "http://www.dontnamethem.org/" >
Don't Name Them< / a > campaign,
which urges that news outlets < i > DO NOT< / i > air mass murderers' names, manifestos, and social media feeds.
This spreads the contagion.
Instead, news outlets should focus on the victims, first responders, civilian heroes,
and the grieving, healing community.
< / div >
< / reference >
< reference id = "subprime" >
< h3 >
“The world's financial institutions fell for such a cascade in 2008.”
< / h3 >
< div >
< a target = "_blank" href = "https://newrepublic.com/article/63023/wall-streets-lemmings" >
“Lemmings of Wall Street”< / a > by Cass Sunstein, is a quick, non-technical read.
Published in Oct 2008, right in the wake of the crash.
< / div >
< / reference >
< reference id = "complex" >
< h3 >
“the complex contagion theory.”
< / h3 >
< div >
< a target = "_blank" href = "https://www.unc.edu/~fbaum/teaching/articles/Granovetter_AJS_1978.pdf" >
“Threshold Models of Collective Behavior”< / a > by Granovetter (1978)
was the first time, as far as I know, anyone described a "complex contagion" model.
(although he didn't use that specific name)
< br > < br >
< a target = "_blank" href = "http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0180802" >
“Evidence for complex contagion models of social contagion from observational data”< / a >
by Sprague & House (2017)
shows that complex contagions do, in fact, exist. (at least, in the social media data they looked at)
< br > < br >
Finally,
< a target = "_blank" href = "https://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0403699.pdf" >
“Universal behavior in a generalized model of contagion”< / a > by Dodds & Watts (2004)
proposes a model that unifies < i > all< / i > kinds of contagions:
simple and complex, biological and social!
< / div >
< / reference >
< reference id = "possum" >
< h3 >
“the possum has 13 nipples”
< / h3 >
< div >
arranged in a ring of 12 nipples, plus one in the middle
< / div >
< / reference >
< reference id = "groupthink" >
< h3 >
“groupthink”
< / h3 >
< div >
This Orwell-inspired phrase was coined by Irving L. Janis in 1971.
< a target = "_blank" href = "https://web.archive.org/web/20100401033524/http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/macdonald/GroupThink.pdf" >
In his original article< / a > ,
Janis investigates cases of groupthink, lists its causes, and — thankfully —
some possible remedies.
< / div >
< / reference >
< reference id = "social_capital" >
< h3 >
“bonding and bridging social capital”
< / h3 >
< div >
These two types of social capital — "bonding" and "bridging" —
were named by Robert Putnam in his insightful 2000 book,
< a target = "_blank" href = "http://bowlingalone.com/" >
Bowling Alone< / a > . His discovery:
across almost < i > all< / i > empircal measures of social connectiveness,
Americans are more alone than ever.
Golly.
< / div >
< / reference >
< reference id = "bridge" >
< h3 >
“bridging social capital has a sweet spot”
< / h3 >
< div >
< a target = "_blank" href = "https://sociology.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/the_strength_of_weak_ties_and_exch_w-gans.pdf" >
“The Strength of Weak Ties”< / a > by Granovetter (1973)
showed that connections across groups helps spread simple contagions (like information),
but
< a target = "_blank" href = "http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/521848?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents" >
“Complex Contagions and the Weakness of Long Ties”< / a > by Centola & Macy (2007)
showed that connections across groups may not help complex contagions,
and it fact, can hurt their spread!
< / div >
< / reference >
< reference id = "small_world" >
< h3 >
“the small world network”
< / h3 >
< div >
The idea of the "small world" was popularized by
< a target = "_blank" href = "http://www.jstor.org/stable/2786545" > Travers & Milgram's 1969 experiment< / a > ,
which showed that, on average, any two random people in the United States
were just six friendships apart — "six degrees of separation"!
< br > < br >
The small-world network got more mathematical meat on its bones with
< a target = "_blank" href = "http://leonidzhukov.net/hse/2014/socialnetworks/papers/watts-collective_dynamics-nature_1998.pdf" >
“Collective dynamics of small-world networks”< / a > by Watts & Strogatz (1998),
which proposed an algorithm for creating networks
with both low average path length (low degree of separation)
and high clustering (friends have lots of mutual friends) —
that is, a network that hits the sweet spot!
< br > < br >
You can also play with
< a target = "_blank" href = "http://worrydream.com/ScientificCommunicationAsSequentialArt/" >
the visual, interactive adaptation of that paper< / a > by Bret Victor (2011).
< / div >
< / reference >
< reference id = "swn_neurons" >
< h3 >
“[small world networks] describe how our neurons are connected”
< / h3 >
< div >
< a target = "_blank" href = "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17079517" >
“Small-world brain networks”< / a > by Bassett & Bullmore (2006).
< / div >
< / reference >
< reference id = "swn_creativity" >
< h3 >
“[small world networks] give rise to collective creativity”
< / h3 >
< div >
< a target = "_blank" href = "http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/432782?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents" >
“Collaboration and Creativity: The Small World Problem”< / a > by Uzzi & Spiro (2005).
This paper analyzed the social network of the Broadway scene over time,
and discovered that, yup, the network's most creative when it's a "small world" network!
< / div >
< / reference >
< reference id = "swn_social_physics" >
< h3 >
“[small world networks] give rise to collective problem-solving”
< / h3 >
< div >
See
< a target = "_blank" href = "http://socialphysics.media.mit.edu/" >
“Social Physics”< / a > by MIT Professor Alex "Sandy" Pentland (2014)
for a data-based approach to collective intelligence.
< / div >
< / reference >
< reference id = "swn_jfk" >
< h3 >
“[small world networks] helped John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war!”
< / h3 >
< div >
Besides the NASA Challenger explosion, the most notorious example of groupthink
was the Bay of Pigs fiasco.
In 1961, US President John F. Kennedy and his team of advisors thought
— for some reason —
it would be a good idea to secretly invade Cuba and overthrow Fidel Castro.
They failed.
Actually, worse than failed: it led to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962,
< i > the closest the world had ever been to full-scale nuclear war.< / i >
< br > < br >
Yup, JFK really screwed up on that one.
< br > < br >
But, having learnt some hard lessons from the Bay of Pigs fiasco,
JFK re-organized his team to avoid groupthink.
Among many things, he:
1) actively encouraged people to voice criticism,
thus lowering the "contagion threshold" for alternate ideas.
And
2) he broke his team up into sub-groups before reconvening,
which gave their group a "small world network"-like design!
Together, this arrangement allowed for a healthy diversity of opinion,
but without being too fractured — a wisdom of crowds.
< br > < br >
And so, with the same < i > individuals< / i > who decided the Bay of Pigs,
but re-arranged < i > collectively< / i > to decide on the Cuban Missile Crisis...
JFK's team was able to reach a peaceful agreement with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev.
The Soviets would remove their missiles from Cuba, and in return,
the US would promise not to invade Cuba again.
(and also agreed, in secret, to remove the US missiles from Turkey)
< br > < br >
And that's the story of how all of humanity almost died.
But a small world network saved the day! Sort of.
< br > < br >
You can read more about this
< a target = "_blank" href = "https://hbr.org/2013/11/how-john-f-kennedy-changed-decision-making" >
on Harvard Business Review< / a > ,
or from
< a target = "_blank" href = "https://web.archive.org/web/20100401033524/http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/macdonald/GroupThink.pdf" >
the original article on groupthink< / a > .
< / div >
< / reference >
< reference id = "three_degrees" >
< h3 >
“we influence [...] our friends' friends' friends!”
< / h3 >
< div >
Again, from Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's
wonderful book,
< a target = "_blank" href = "http://www.connectedthebook.com/" >
Connected< / a > (2009).
< / div >
< / reference >
< reference id = "flatter" >
< h3 >
“be skeptical of ideas that flatter you”
< / h3 >
< div >
yes, including the ideas in < i > this< / i > explorable explanation.
< / div >
< / reference >
< reference id = "sandbox" >
< h3 >
★ Sandbox Mode ★
< / h3 >
< div >
The keyboard shortcuts (1, 2, space, backspace)
work in < i > all< / i > the puzzles, not just Sandbox Mode!
Seriously, you can go back to a different chapter,
and edit the simulation right there.
In fact, that's how < i > I< / i > created all these puzzles. Have fun!
< / div >
< / reference >
< reference id = "supporters" hidden = yes large = yes >
< div >
To
< a target = "_blank" href = "https://www.patreon.com/ncase" > my supporters on Patreon< / a > :
I'm deeply grateful.
Your generosity < i > literally< / i > feeds me and pays my rent,
and grants me the creative freedom to make these weird math/social-science games.
From the bottom of my heart, thank you!
< / div >
< / reference >
< reference id = "playtesters" hidden = yes large = yes >
< div >
Thank you, everyone who playtested < i > Crowds< / i >
during its many stages of life!
< br > < br >
< b > The Prototype:< / b >
< br >
Maria ·
Monica Srivastava
< br > < br >
< b > The Alpha:< / b >
< br >
Glen Chiacchieri ·
Kalli Repzeti ·
Mali Akmanalp ·
Toph Tucker
< br > < br >
< b > The Beta:< / b >
< br >
Alex Dytrych ·
Amit Patel ·
Cassandra McClure ·
Catherine Ray ·
Josh Comeau ·
Kayle Sawyer ·
Matthew Conlen ·
Srini Kadamati ·
Vanessa Shen ·
Wick Perry
< / div >
< / reference >
< / span >
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