2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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THE WISDOM AND/OR MADNESS OF CROWDS
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by Nicky Case | apr 2018
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- - - - - - - - - - -
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FAN TRANSLATION GUIDE:
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https://github.com/ncase/crowds#how-to-translate-this-thing
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Hello fan-translaters! Thank you so, so much for your help.
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I hope you know what you've gotten yourself into.
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There's about 3600+ WORDS to translate, including
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the Bonus Boxes and References.
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To make things easier (or less painful, anyway) I've marked
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what needs to be translated and how with big "TRANSLATE" comments.
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Ctrl+F for "TRANSLATE" in uppercase to see what needs to be translated!
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BUT BEFORE YOU TRANSLATE ANYTHING, DO THIS:
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1) Look up the two-letter code of the language you're translating to:
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ISO_639-1_codes
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2) *COPY* index.html, and name the copy [two-letter-code].html
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For example: de.html, ar.html, zh.html, etc...
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3) Translate *THAT* page. Do NOT modify the original index.html!
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And once you're done, go to "translations.txt", and follow the
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instructions there to let this game "know" your translation exists.
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Good luck, and thanks again!
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<3,
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~ Nicky Case
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-->
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html>
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<head>
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<!-- Meta Info -->
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<title>La Sabiduría y/o Locura de las Masas</title> <!-- <title>(TRANSLATE this part only)</title> -->
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<meta name="description" content="una guía interactiva a las redes humanas"/> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta content="text/html;charset=utf-8" http-equiv="Content-Type">
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<meta content="utf-8" http-equiv="encoding">
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<meta charset="utf-8">
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<link rel="icon" type="image/png" href="favicon.png">
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<!-- Sharing -->
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<meta itemprop="name" content="La Sabiduría y/o Locura de las Masas"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta itemprop="description" content="una guía interactiva a las redes humanas"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta itemprop="image" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/social/thumb.png">
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<meta name="twitter:title" content="La Sabiduría y/o Locura de las Masas"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta name="twitter:description" content="una guía interactiva a las redes humanas"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image">
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<meta name="twitter:site" content="@ncasenmare">
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<meta name="twitter:creator" content="@ncasenmare">
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<meta name="twitter:image" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/social/thumb.png">
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<meta property="og:title" content="La Sabiduría y/o Locura de las Masas"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta property="og:description" content="una guía interactiva a las redes humanas"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta property="og:type" content="website">
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<meta property="og:url" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/">
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<meta property="og:image" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/social/thumb.png">
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<!-- Styles -->
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<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="css/index.css?v=3">
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</head>
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<body>
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<!-- THE SLIDESHOW -->
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<div id="container">
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<!-- Simulation(s) in background -->
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<div id="simulations_container">
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<div id="simulations"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Slideshow: words & buttons -->
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<div id="slideshow_container">
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<div id="slideshow"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Scratch Transition -->
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<canvas id="scratch" width="711" height="400"></canvas>
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<!-- Skip -->
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<div id="skip">saltar ></div> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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<!-- Modal -->
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<div id="modal_container">
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<div id="modal_bg"></div>
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<div id="modal">
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<div id="modal_close">⨯</div>
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<div id="modal_content_container">
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<div id="modal_content"></div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Navigation: Audio, Contents, Share, Translations -->
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<div id="navigation_container">
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<div id="sound" mute="no">
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<div id="sound_icon"></div>
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<span id="sound_on">ON</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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<span id="sound_off">OFF</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</div>
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<div id="sharing">
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<a id="fb" target="_blank" href="TODO"></a>
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<a id="tw" target="_blank" href="TODO"></a>
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<a id="em" target="_blank" href="TODO"></a>
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<span id="share_title">
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La Sabiduría y/o Locura de las Masas <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</span>
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<span id="share_desc">
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<!-- TRANSLATOR: keep this on ONE LINE or the social sharing will break! -->
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¿Por qué los grupos de personas actúan de forma inteligente, tonta, amable o cruel? Una guía interactiva a las redes humanas: <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</span>
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</div>
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<div id="navigation">
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<!-- The chapters -->
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<!-- TRANSLATE all the Chapter names! -->
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<div chapter="Introduction">
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<span>0</span>
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<span>0. Introducción</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Networks">
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<span>1</span>
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<span>1. Redes</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Simple">
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<span>2</span>
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<span>2. Contagios</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Complex">
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<span>3</span>
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<span>3. Contagios Complejos</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="BB">
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<span>4</span>
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2018-04-29 16:42:01 +00:00
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<span>4. Vínculos y Puentes</span> <!-- note: & is html for the "and" sign -->
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</div>
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<div chapter="SmallWorld">
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<span>5</span>
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<span>5. Es un Mundo Pequeño</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Conclusion">
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<span>6</span>
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<span>6. En Conclusión...</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Credits">
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<span>7</span>
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<span>7. Créditos</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Sandbox">
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<span>★</span>
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<span>★ ¡Modo Sandbox! ★</span>
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</div>
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<!-- A divider -->
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<span class="nav_divider"></span>
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<!-- Bonus Notes & References -->
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<div modal="bonus">
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<span>?</span>
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<span>¡Notas Extras!</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</div>
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<div modal="references">
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<span style="margin-top: 7px; font-size: 35px;">*</span>
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<span>Enlaces & Referencias</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</div>
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<div modal="translations">
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<span style="margin-top:5px; position:relative;"><span style="
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position: absolute;
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top: -8px;
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left: 6px;
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">A</span><span style="
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position: absolute;
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font-size: 16px;
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top: -1px;
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left: 16px;
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">あ</span></span>
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<span>Traducciones</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</div>
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<!-- The hover bubble -->
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<span id="nav_bubble"></span>
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</div>
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<div id="translations"></div>
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<div id="social"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- The Pencil -->
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<div id="pencil_container">
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<canvas id="pencil"></canvas>
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</div>
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<!-- Preloader -->
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<div id="pre_preloader">
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<div>cargando...</div> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</div>
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</body>
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</html>
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<!-- - - - - -->
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<!-- SCRIPTS -->
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<!-- - - - - -->
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<script src="js/lib/helpers.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/minpubsub.src.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/howler.min.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/Key.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/Mouse.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/Sprite.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Slideshow.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Pencil.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Boxes.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Scratch.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Navigation.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/SimUI.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/SandboxUI.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Modal.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Preloader.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Translations.js?v=2"></script>
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<script src="js/sim/Peep.js?v=2"></script>
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<script src="js/sim/Connection.js"></script>
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<script src="js/sim/ConnectorCutter.js"></script>
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<script src="js/sim/Simulations.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/A_Preloader.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/B_Introduction.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/C_Networks.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/D_Simple_Contagion.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/E_Complex_Contagion.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/F_Bonding_And_Bridging.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/G_Small_World.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/H_Conclusion.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/I_Credits.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/J_Sandbox.js?v=2"></script>
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<script src="js/main.js"></script>
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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<!-- THE SLIDESHOW'S WORDS -->
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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<!--
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This is the bulk of what you need to TRANSLATE!
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Translate just the text that's within the <tag></tags>
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If you're using a code editor (like Sublime Text https://www.sublimetext.com/),
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it should automatically highlight what the text is (usually in white).
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-->
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<span style="display:none">
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<!-- Preloader -->
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<words id="preloader_title">
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<div style="font-size: 30px;">
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<span>la</span>
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<br>
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<span style="font-size: 60px;letter-spacing: 4px;">SABIDURIA</span>
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<span style="position:relative;top: -10px;">y/o la</span>
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<span style="font-size: 60px;">LOCURA</span>
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<br>
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<span style="position: relative;top: -11px;">de las</span>
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<br>
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<span style="font-size: 100px;line-height: 80px;position: relative;top: -15px; display:block;">MASAS</span>
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</div>
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<div style="color:#999">
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<!-- TRANSLATE note: comment out the line below... -->
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<!-- playing time: 30 min • by nicky case, april 2018 -->
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<!-- ...and UN-comment + TRANSLATE this line! -->
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2018-04-29 16:42:01 +00:00
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por nicky case • traducido por Gilberto Guerra • <a href='/'>original in English</a>
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</div>
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</words>
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<words id="preloader_button">
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<next></next>
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</words>
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<words id="preloader_loading">
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cargando...
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</words>
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<words id="preloader_play">
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¡comencemos! <div class="rarr"></div>
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</words>
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<!-- Introduction -->
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<!--
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TRANSLATE note: to make the text stay in a circle, I added lots of <br> breaks.
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You may have to re-arrange the <br>'s in order to do your translation.
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It shouldn't look too bad if they're slightly off, though!
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Also, <b></b> bolds a word/phrase, and <i></i> italicizes a word/phrase.
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-->
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<words id="intro">
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<br><br>
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Sir Isaac Newton estaba bastante seguro de que era
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<br>
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una persona muy lista. Quiero decir, después de inventar el cálculo y
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<br>
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una teoría de la gravedad, él debería de ser lo suficientemente listo como para hacer
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<br>
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algunas inversiones financieras, ¿cierto? Sin embargo, en resúmen, él
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<br>
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perdió $4,600,000 dólares (dólares actuales) en el frenesí especulativo
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<br>
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nacional conocido como la burbuja de los Mares del Sur, en 1720.
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<br><br>
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Es por esto que Newton dijo: <i>“Puedo calcular el movimiento de los
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<br>
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cuerpos celestes, pero no la locura de la gente.”</i>
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<next>pobre Newton :( <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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</words>
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<words id="intro_2">
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<div style="height:0.5em"></div>
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Por supuesto, aquella no es la única
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<br>
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ocasión en la que mercados, instituciones,
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<br>
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o democracias enteras se volvieron locas — la <i>locura</i> de las
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<br>
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multitudes. Pero aún así, justo cuando pierdes la fé en la humanidad,
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<br>
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vez a ciudadanos coordinandose para rescatar a sus prójimos en
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<br>
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huracanes, comunidades creando soluciones a problemas,
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<br>
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gente luchando por un mundo mejor — ¡la <i>sabiduría</i> de las masas!
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<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
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<b>Pero ¿<i>por qué</i> algunas multitudes recurren a la locura, o a la sabiduría?</b> No existe una teoría
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<br>
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que pueda explicar todo, pero creo que un nuevo campo de estudio,
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<br>
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<b>análisis de redes</b>, puede guiarnos! Su idea principal es esta: para
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<br>
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entender a las masas, en lugar de observar a las personas de forma
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<br>
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<i>individual</i>, deberíamos observar...
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<next>...a sus <i>relaciones</i>. <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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</words>
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<!-- Networks -->
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<words id="networks_tutorial_start">
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<b>¡Dibujemos una red!</b>
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Cada conexión representa una amistad entre dos personas:
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</words>
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<words id="networks_tutorial_connect">
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2018-04-29 16:42:01 +00:00
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traza una línea para conectarlas
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="networks_tutorial_disconnect">
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2018-04-29 16:42:01 +00:00
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cruza la línea para desconectarlas
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="networks_tutorial_end">
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cuando termines de hacer garabatos y jugar,
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<next wiggle>continuemos <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_threshold">
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Las conexiones sociales no solamente sirven para tener fotos bonitas.
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La gente <i>recurre</i> a sus conexiones sociales para entender su alrededor.
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Por ejemplo, las personas recurren a su red de amistades para
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2018-04-29 16:42:01 +00:00
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saber <b>qué porcentaje de sus amigos</b> (sin contarse a ellos mismos) son,
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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digamos, bebedores compulsivos. <icon name="yellow"></icon>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_threshold_instruction">
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<b>¡Crea y elimina conexiones para ver lo que sucede!<div class="rarr"></div> </b>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_threshold_end">
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<next>¡entendido!</next>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_pre_puzzle">
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Sin embargo, las redes pueden <i>engañar a la gente</i>.
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Así como la tierra puede parecer plana porque estamos en su superficie
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2018-04-28 15:54:14 +00:00
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la gente puede tener ideas erróneas sobre la sociedad porque estamos <i>dentro</i> de ella.
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="optional_reading">
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<div style="position:absolute; top:5px;">
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<i>opcional</i> ¡notas extras! ↑
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</div>
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<div style="position:absolute; left:216px; top:10px;">
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↓ enlaces y referencias
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</div>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_pre_puzzle_2">
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<bon id="books"></bon>
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<br>
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Por ejemplo, un estudio de 1991<ref id="drunk"></ref> mostró que
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2018-04-28 15:54:14 +00:00
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“prácticamente, todos los estudiantes [de universidad] reportaron que sus amigos consumían más alcohol que ellos.”
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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¡Pero eso es imposible!
|
2018-04-28 15:54:14 +00:00
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¿Cómo puede ser eso?
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Bueno, estás a punto de descubrir la respuesta, creando una red.
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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Es tiempo de...
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<next>ENGAÑAR A TODOS <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_puzzle">
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<b style="font-size:2em">¡HORA DE UN RETO!</b>
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<br>
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Engaña <i>a todos</i> haciéndoles creer
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que la mayoría de sus amigos (al menos el 50%) son bebedores impulsivos <icon name="yellow"></icon>
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(¡Observa que las personas que no toman superan en número a los bebedores impulsivos!)
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</words>
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<words id="networks_puzzle_metric">
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<b>ENGAÑADO A:</b>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_puzzle_metric_2">
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de 9 personas
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</words>
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<words id="networks_puzzle_end">
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¡Felicidades! Manipulaste a un grupo de estudiantes para que crean
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en la prevalencia de una norma social sumamente dañina. ¡Bien hecho!
|
2018-04-28 15:54:14 +00:00
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<next wiggle>...ehm. ¿Gracias?</next>
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="networks_post_puzzle">
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Lo que acabas de crear se llama la Ilusión de la Mayoría<ref id="majority"></ref>,
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la cual también explica por qué la gente piensa que sus puntos de vista política son un consenso,
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o por qué el extremismo aparenta ser más común de lo que realmente es.
|
2018-04-29 16:42:01 +00:00
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<i>Una locura.</i>
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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<bon id="connections"></bon>
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Pero las personas no solamente <i>observan</i> pasivamente las ideas y los comportamientos de otros,
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también los <i>imitan</i> activamente.
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2018-04-29 16:42:01 +00:00
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Ahora, veamos algo que los científicos llaman...
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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2018-04-29 16:42:01 +00:00
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<next>¡"Contagios"! <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<!-- Simple Contagions -->
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<words id="simple_simple">
|
2018-04-28 16:54:52 +00:00
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<i>Pongamos aparte lo del "límite" por ahora.</i>
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Abajo: está una persona <icon name="red"></icon> con información sobre algo.
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<i>Des</i>información. "Fake news", como le dicen los chicos en onda.
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Y cada día, esa persona esparce el rumor, como un virus, a sus amigos.
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Y ellos lo esparcen a <i>sus</i> amigos, y así sucesivamente.
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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<br>
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<b>
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2018-04-28 16:54:52 +00:00
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¡Comenzar la simulación! <div class="darr"></div>
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(p.d.: no puedes dibujar <i>mientras</i> el simulador se está ejecutando)
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</b>
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</words>
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<words id="simple_simple_2">
|
2018-04-28 16:54:52 +00:00
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Nota: A pesar del nombre negativo, los "contagios" pueden ser buenos o malos (o neutrales o ambíguos).
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Existe fuerte evidencia estadística<ref id="contagion"></ref> que indica que
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el fumar, la salud, la felicidad, los patrones de voto, y la disposición a la cooperación
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son todos "contagiosos" --
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y hay incluso evidencia de que los suicidios<ref id="suicides"></ref> y los tiroteos<ref id="shootings"></ref> también lo son.
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="simple_simple_end">
|
2018-04-28 16:54:52 +00:00
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<next wiggle>pero qué deprimente <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="simple_cascade">
|
2018-04-28 16:54:52 +00:00
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Sí que lo es.
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Pero bueno, es <b>¡HORA DE OTRO RETO!</b>
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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<br>
|
2018-04-29 16:42:01 +00:00
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Dibuja una red y corre la simulación,
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2018-04-28 16:54:52 +00:00
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para que <i>todos</i> se infecten con el "contagio".
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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<br>
|
2018-04-28 16:54:52 +00:00
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(Nueva regla: no puedes cortar las conexiones <i>gruesas</i>)
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="simple_cascade_end">
|
2018-04-28 16:54:52 +00:00
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<next wiggle>¡excelente! <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="simple_post_cascade">
|
2018-04-28 16:54:52 +00:00
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2018-04-29 16:42:01 +00:00
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Esta propagación de desinformación se llama <b>"cascada informativa"</b>.
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Newton fue víctima de ella en 1720.
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Las instituciones financieras del mundo fueron víctimas de ella en el 2008.<ref id="subprime"></ref>
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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<br><br>
|
2018-04-28 16:54:52 +00:00
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Sin embargo: <i>esta simulación es incorrecta.</i>
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La mayoría de las ideas <i>no</i> se esparcen como lo hacen los virus.
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Para muchas creencias y comportamientos, necesitas estar "expuesto" al contagio más de una vez
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para que seas "infectado".
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Es por eso que los científicos han desarrollado una nueva y mejor forma de
|
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describir cómo las ideas y los comportamientos se esparcen, y le llaman...
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<next wiggle>“¡Contagios <i>Complejos</i>!” <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<!-- Complex Contagions -->
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<words id="complex_complex">
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|
2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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¡Traigamos de vuelta el ejemplo con los "límites" y los bebedores compulsivos! <icon name="yellow"></icon>
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Cuando jugaste con esto la primera vez, las personas no cambiaron su comportamiento.
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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<br><br>
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2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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Ahora veamos lo que pasaría si la gente comenzara a tomar,
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<i>¡cuando al menos el 50% de sus amigos lo hacen!</i>
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<b>Antes de que empieces la simulación, piensa en lo que <i>debería</i> de pasar.</b>
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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<br><br>
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|
2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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<b>¡Ahora corre la simulación y observa lo que pasa en realidad! <div class="rarr"></div> </b>
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_complex_2">
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<span style="line-height:1.3em; display:block;">
|
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|
2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
|
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|
A diferencia del contagio de "fake news" <icon name="red"></icon> anterior,
|
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¡este contagio <icon name="yellow"></icon> <i>no</i> afecta a todos!
|
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Las primeras personas que se "infectan" lo hacen, porque a pesar de que solamente están expuestas a un
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bebedor compulsivo, ese bebedor compulsivo es el 50% de sus amigos. (sí, son muy solitarios)
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En contraste, la persona cerca del final de la cadena <i>no</i> fue "infectado",
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porque mientras que fue expuesto a un amigo que es un bebedor compulsivo,
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no se excedió el límite del 50%.
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
|
2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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El porcentaje <i>relativo</i> de amigos "infectados" importa.
|
|
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|
<i>Esta</i> es la diferencia entre la teoría de <b>contagios complejos</b> <ref id="complex"></ref>,
|
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|
y nuestra teoría reduccionista de <b>contagios simples</b> que se transmiten como un virus.
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(podrías decir que los "contagios simples" son contagios en donde no hay resistencia a la infección)
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
|
2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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Sin embargo, los contagios no son necesariamente malos —
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así que basta de la <i>locura</i> de las masas, ¿qué hay de...
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<next>...la <i>sabiduría</i> de las masas?</next>
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</span>
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</words>
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<words id="complex_complex_3">
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2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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En este caso tenemos a una persona <icon name="blue"></icon> que es voluntaria para... no lo sé,
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rescatar personas en huracanes, o dar clases a niños de bajos recursos en su comunidad, o algo genial como eso.
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El punto es que es un contagio complejo "bueno".
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Esta vez, digamos, hay un umbral del 25% —
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las personas están dispuestas a ayudar, pero solo si más del 25% de sus amigos también lo hacen.
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Hey, es más sencillo hacer buenas acciones en conjunto.
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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<br><br>
|
2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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<b>← ¡"Infecta" a todos con buenas vibras!</b>
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_complex_3_end">
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<span style="line-height:1.3em; display:block;">
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2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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<b>NOTA</b>: ¡El voluntareado es solo <i>uno</i> de muchos contagios complejos!
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Otros incluyen: participación electoral, hábitos,
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cuestionar tus creencias,
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tomar tiempo para entender un tema complejo — cualquier cosa
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que necesite más de una "exposición".
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Los contagios complejos no son necesariamente inteligentes,
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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Complex contagions aren't <i>necessarily</i> wise,
|
2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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pero ser sabio es
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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but being wise is a complex contagion.
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<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
|
2018-04-29 16:42:01 +00:00
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(Así que, ¿cuáles son ejemplos reales de contagio <i>simple</i>?)
|
2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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Usualmente trivia como "el tlacuache tiene 13 pezones"<ref id="possum"></ref>)
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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<bon id="contagions"></bon>
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2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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Ahora, para <i>realmente</i> mostrar el poder y la extrañeza de los contagios complejos, recapitulemos...
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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<next>...un reto anterior <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</span>
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</words>
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<words id="complex_cascade">
|
2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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¿Recuerdas esto? Esta vez con un contagio <i>complejo</i> <icon name="blue"></icon> será un poco más difícil...
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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<br>
|
2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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<b>¡Intenta "infectar" a todos con sabiduría compleja! <div class="darr"></div></b>
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_cascade_feel_free">
|
2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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(puedes presionar "iniciar" e <i>intentar</i> encontrar cuantas soluciones quieras)
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_cascade_end">
|
2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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<next wiggle>MIRA NADA MAS <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_post_cascade">
|
2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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Puedes pensar que solamente necesitas seguir añadiendo conexiones para propagar cualquier contagio,
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sea "complejo" o "simple", bueno o malo, sabio o loco.
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¿Pero es eso cierto? Veámoslo...
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_post_cascade_end">
|
2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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<next wiggle>...en un reto pasado <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_prevent">
|
2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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Si presionas "iniciar", el contagio complejo <icon name="blue"></icon> llegará a todos.
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Esto no es nada nuevo.
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Pero ahora, hagamos lo <i>opuesto</i> a lo que hemos hecho hasta ahora:
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<b>¡crear una red para <i>prevenir</i> que el contagio infecte a todos! <div class="darr"></div></b>
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_prevent_2">
|
2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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¿Lo vez?
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Mientras que más interacciones siempre ayudan a esparcir ideas <i>simples</i>,
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<b>¡más conexiones pueden perjudicar el esparcimiento de ideas <i>complejas</i>!</b>
|
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(¿no te hace esto pensar sobre el internet?)
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Y no es solo un problema teorético. Puede ser un caso de vida...
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_prevent_end">
|
2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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<next wiggle>... o muerte. <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_groupthink">
|
2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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Los empleados de la NASA son muy inteligentes.
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Quiero decir, usaron las teorías de Newton para llevarnos a la luna.
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Pero bueno, en resumen, en 1986,
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<i>a pesar de las advertencias de los ingenieros,</i>,
|
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|
el cohete <i>Challenger</i> fue lanzado,
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|
y a poco tiempo del lanzamiento, explotó, causando la muerte de 7 personas.
|
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La causa inmediata:
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Hacía mucho frío aquella mañana.
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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La causa secundaria: los gerentes ignoraron las advertencias de los ingenieros.
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¿Por qué? Debido al <b>pensamiento de grupo (groupthink)</b><ref id="groupthink"></ref>.
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Cuando un grupo es <i>muy</i> cerrado (como lo son los grupos de altos ejecutivos)
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los integrantes se oponen a ideas complejas que van en contra de sus opiniones o ego.
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
2018-04-29 04:19:52 +00:00
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Así es como las instituciones son víctimas de la locura de las masas.
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|
Pero entonces, ¿cómo podemos "diseñar" para fomentar la <i>sabiduría</i> de las masas?
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|
Dos palabras:
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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|
2018-04-29 16:42:01 +00:00
|
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|
<next>Vínculos y Puentes <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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|
<!-- Bonding & Bridging -->
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<words id="bonding_1">
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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|
Si hay muy pocas conexiones, una idea no se puede esparcir.
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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← Too few connections, and an idea can't spread.
|
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<br>
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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|
Si hay muchas conexiones, existe pensamiento de grupo.
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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|
Too many connections, and you get groupthink. <div class="rarr"></div>
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</words>
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<words id="bonding_2">
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<b>
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
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|
Crea un grupo que llegue al punto óptimo:
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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|
Draw a group that hits the sweet spot:
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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|
¡lo suficientemente conectado como para esparcir una idea compleja!
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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|
just connected enough to spread a complex idea!
|
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<div class="darr"></div>
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</b>
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</words>
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<words id="bonding_end">
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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|
Sencillo, ¿verdad?
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
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|
Simple enough!
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
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|
Al número de conexiones dentro de un grupo se le llama capital social de vínculos (bonding social capital)
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
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|
|
The number of connections <i>within</i> a group is called <b>bonding social capital</b><ref id="social_capital"></ref>.
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
|
|
|
¿Pero qué hay de las conexiones...
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
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|
But what about the connections...
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
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|
entre grupos?
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
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|
<next wiggle>...<i>between</i> groups?</next>
|
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|
</words>
|
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|
<words id="bridging_1">
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
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|
Como ya te habrás imaginado,
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
|
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|
As you may have already guessed,
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
|
|
|
al número de conexiones entre grupos se le llama
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
|
|
|
the number of connections <i>between</i> groups is called
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
|
|
|
capital social de puente (bridging social capital)
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<b>bridging social capital</b>.
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
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|
¡Esto es importante, porque ayuda a los grupos a salir de sus cajas de resonancia!
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
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|
This is important, because it helps groups break out of their insular echo chambers!
|
|
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|
<br>
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
|
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|
Construye un puente para "infectar" a todos con sabiduría compleja:
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
|
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|
<b>Build a bridge, to "infect" everyone with complex wisdom:</b>
|
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|
</words>
|
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|
<words id="bridging_end">
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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|
Para los puentes, también hay un punto óptimo.
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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|
Like bonding, there's a sweet spot for bridging, too.<ref id="bridge"></ref>
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
|
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|
(reto extra: ¡intenta hacer un puente tan numeroso que los contagios complejos)
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
|
|
|
(extra challenge: try drawing a bridge so thick that the complex contagion
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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|
no puedan pasar a través de él!.
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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|
<i>can't</i> pass through it!)
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Ahora que ya sabemos como "diseñar" conexiones dentro y entre grupos...
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Now that we know how to "design" connections <i>within</i> and <i>between</i> groups, let's...
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
|
|
|
¡diseñemos para AMBOS al mismo tiempo!
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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|
<next wiggle>...do BOTH at the same time!</next>
|
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|
</words>
|
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|
<words id="bb_1">
|
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|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
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|
<b style="font-size:2em">¡RETO FINAL!</b>
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
|
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|
<br>
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Dibuja conexiones dentro de grupos (vínculos) y entre grupos (puentes)
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
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|
Draw connections within groups (bonding) and between groups (bridging)
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
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|
para que la sabiduría se esparza a toda la multitud.
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
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|
to spread wisdom to the whole crowd:
|
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|
</words>
|
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|
<words id="bb_2">
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
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|
¡Felicidades, acabas de crear tu propio tipo especial de red!
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
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|
Congrats, you've just drawn a very special kind of network!
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Las redes con la mezcla de vínculos y puentes
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
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|
Networks with the right mix of bonding and bridging
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
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|
son sumamente importantes, y se les llaman...
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
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|
are profoundly important, and they're called...
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
|
|
|
"redes de mundo pequeño" (Small World Networks)
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<next wiggle>“Small World Networks” <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
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|
</words>
|
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|
<words id="bb_small_world_1">
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
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|
"Unidad sin uniformidad". "Diversidad sin división". "E Pluribus Unum: de muchos, uno"
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
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|
<i>"Unity without uniformity". "Diversity without division". "E Pluribus Unum: out of many, one".</i>
|
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|
<br>
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
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|
No importa cómo sea dicho,
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
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|
No matter how it's phrased,
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
|
|
|
las personas a través de distintos tiempos y culturas llegan a la misma conclusión:
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
|
|
|
people across times and cultures often arrive at the same piece of wisdom:
|
|
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|
|
<b>
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
|
|
|
una sociedad saludable necesita el número correcto de vínculos dentro de grupos
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
|
|
|
a healthy society needs a sweet spot of bonds <i>within</i> groups
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
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|
y de puentes entre grupos
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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|
and bridges <i>between</i> groups.
|
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|
</b>
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
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|
Es decir:
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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|
That is:
|
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|
</words>
|
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|
<words id="bb_small_world_2">
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
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|
No así...
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
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Not this...
|
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<br>
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
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|
(porque las ideas no pueden extenderse)
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
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|
(because ideas can't spread)
|
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|
</words>
|
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|
<words id="bb_small_world_3">
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
|
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|
ni así...
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
|
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nor this...
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<br>
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2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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(porque terminarás con pensamiento de grupo)
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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(because you'll get groupthink)
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</words>
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<words id="bb_small_world_4">
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2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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...pero ASI:
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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...but <i>THIS:</i>
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</words>
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<words id="bb_small_world_5">
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Network scientists now have a mathematical definition for this ancient wisdom:
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the <b>small world network</b><ref id="small_world"></ref>.
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This optimal mix of bonding+bridging describes how
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our neurons are connected<ref id="swn_neurons"></ref>,
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fosters collective creativity<ref id="swn_creativity"></ref>
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and problem-solving<ref id="swn_social_physics"></ref>,
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and even once helped US President John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war!<ref id="swn_jfk"></ref>
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So, yeah, small worlds are a big deal.
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</words>
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<words id="bb_small_world_end">
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2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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de acuerdo, vamos a concluir...
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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<next>ok, let's wrap this up... <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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</words>
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<!-- Sandbox -->
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<words id="sandbox_caption">
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2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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(pst... ¿te digo un secreto?<ref id="sandbox"></ref>)
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_contagion">
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2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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Contagio:
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_contagion_simple">
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simple
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_contagion_complex">
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2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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complejo
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_color_chooser">
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2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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Color del Contagio:
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_chooser">
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2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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Elige una herramienta...
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_pencil">
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2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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Dibujar Red
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_add">
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2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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Agregar Persona
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_add_infected">
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2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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Agregar "Infectado"
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_move">
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2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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Arrastrar Persona
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_delete">
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2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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Borrar Persona
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_clear">
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2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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<b>BORRAR TODO</b>
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_shortcuts_label">
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2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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(...o, ¡usa los atajos de teclado!)
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2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_shortcuts">
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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[1]: Agregar Persona [2]: Agregar "Infectado"
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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<br>
|
2018-05-11 15:34:25 +00:00
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[Espacio]: Arrastrar [Backspace]: Borrar
|
2018-04-27 22:09:02 +00:00
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</words>
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<!-- Conclusion -->
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<words id="conclusion_1">
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<div style="font-size: 30px;">
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IN CONCLUSION: it's all about...
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</div>
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<div style="
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width: 100%;
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position: absolute;
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font-size: 88px;
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top: 20px;
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line-height: 100px; display:block;
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">
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Contagions & Connections
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</div>
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<div style="
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width: 710px;
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position: absolute;
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top: 125px;
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left: 250px;
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">
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<b>Contagions:</b>
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Like how neurons pass signals in a brain,
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|
people pass beliefs & behaviors in a society.
|
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Not only do we influence our friends,
|
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we also influence our friends' friends, and even our friends' friends' friends!<ref id="three_degrees"></ref>
|
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|
(“be the change you wanna see in the world” etc etc)
|
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|
But, like neurons, it's not just signals that matter, it's also...
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</div>
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<div style="
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width: 710px;
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position: absolute;
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top: 275px;
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left: 250px;
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">
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<b>Connections:</b>
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Too few connections and complex ideas can't spread.
|
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|
Too <i>many</i> connections and complex ideas get crushed by groupthink.
|
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|
The trick is to build a small world network, the optimal mix of
|
|
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|
bonding and bridging: <i>e pluribus unum.</i>
|
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|
</div>
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<div style="
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width: 350px;
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position: absolute;
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top: 410px;
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left: 220px;
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text-align: center;
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color: #999;
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">
|
|
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|
|
(wanna make your own simulations?
|
|
|
|
|
check out Sandbox Mode, by clicking the (★) button below!)
|
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|
</div>
|
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|
<div style="
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width: 400px;
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position: absolute;
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top: 395px;
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right: 0px;
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text-align: right;
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">
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|
So, what about our question from the very beginning?
|
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|
Why <i>do</i> some crowds turn to...
|
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|
</div>
|
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|
<div style="
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width: 300px;
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position: absolute;
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top: 460px;
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right: 0px;
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">
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|
<next>...wisdom and/or madness?</next>
|
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|
</div>
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</words>
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<words id="conclusion_2">
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<span style="line-height:1.4em; display:block;">
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<div style="height:0.5em"></div>
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|
From Newton to NASA to
|
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|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
network science, we've covered a lot here
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
today. Long story short, the madness of crowds
|
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|
|
|
<br>
|
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|
is not necessarily due to the <i>individual people</i>, but due
|
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|
<br>
|
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|
|
to how we're trapped in a network's sticky web.
|
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|
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
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|
That <i>does NOT</i> mean abandoning personal responsibility, for
|
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|
<br>
|
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|
|
we're also the <i>weavers</i> of that web. So, improve your contagions:
|
|
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|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
be skeptical of ideas that flatter you<ref id="flatter"></ref>, spend time understanding
|
|
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|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
complex ideas. And, improve your connections: bond with similar
|
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|
<br>
|
|
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|
|
folk, but also build bridges across cultural/political divides.
|
|
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|
|
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
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|
We can weave a wise web. Sure, it's harder than doodling
|
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|
<br>
|
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|
|
lines on a screen...
|
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|
<next>...but so, so worth it.</next>
|
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</span>
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</words>
|
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<words id="conclusion_3">
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<i>
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|
“The great triumphs and tragedies of history are caused,
|
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|
not by people being fundamentally good or fundamentally bad,
|
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|
but by people being fundamentally people.”
|
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|
</i>
|
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<br>
|
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|
<span style="position:relative; top:5px">~</span> Neil Gaiman & Terry Pratchett
|
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|
<div style="height:0.8em"></div>
|
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|
|
<next small><3</next>
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</words>
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|
<!-- Credits -->
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<words id="credits">
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<div style="text-align:center; color:#fff; letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 24px; line-height: 27px;">
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<span style="color:#777; position:relative; top:5px;">
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|
created by</span>
|
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|
<div style="font-size: 3em; line-height: 1.0em;">
|
|
|
|
|
NICKY CASE</div>
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://ncase.me" style="text-decoration:none">
|
|
|
|
|
play my other shtuff</a> ·
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/ncasenmare" style="text-decoration:none">
|
|
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|
follow my tweeter</a>
|
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<br><br>
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<span style="color:#777; position:relative; top:5px; display: inline-block; margin-top: 15px;">
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|
lots of love and thanks to</span>
|
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|
<div style="font-size: 3em; line-height: 1.0em;">
|
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|
|
|
MY PATREON SUPPORTERS</div>
|
|
|
|
|
<a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["supporters"]);'>
|
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|
|
|
see names & drawings of supporters</a> ·
|
|
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|
|
<a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["playtesters"]);'>
|
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|
|
see playtesters</a>
|
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|
<br>
|
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|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.patreon.com/ncase" style="text-decoration:none">
|
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|
help me make more like this! <3</a>
|
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<br><br>
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<span style="display: inline-block; margin-top: 15px;">
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|
♫ music is
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|
<a target="_blank" href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Komiku/Tale_on_the_Late/" style="text-decoration:none">
|
|
|
|
|
"Friends 2018" and "Friends 2068"</a>
|
|
|
|
|
by Komiku
|
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|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
</> <i>Crowds</i> is
|
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|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://github.com/ncase/crowds" style="text-decoration:none">
|
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|
fully open source</a>
|
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</span>
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<br>
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<bon id="further_reading"></bon>
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</div>
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</words>
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<!-- x. misc -->
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<words id="WIN">
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WIN
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</words>
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<words id="sim_start">
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start simulation
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</words>
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<words id="sim_stop">
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reset & re-draw
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</words>
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<words id="translations_exist">
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Fan-made translations:
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</words>
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<words id="translations_do_not_exist">
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<!-- There's no need to TRANSLATE this line since, well, -->
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<!-- it'll only show up if no translations exist -->
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What the, no fan-made translations exist yet?!
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</words>
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<words id="translations_add">
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(add your own!)
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</words>
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<!-- - - - - - - -->
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<!-- BONUS BOXES -->
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<!-- - - - - - - -->
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<!--
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Sorry, not done yet! These Bonus Boxes need you to TRANSLATE, too:
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(And then afterwards, the final thing, translate the References)
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-->
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<bonus id="books">
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<h3>
|
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|
A quick response to James Surowiecki's <i>The Wisdom of Crowds</i>
|
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|
</h3>
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<div>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/surowieki.jpg" width="200" height="300" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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First off, I'm not dissing
|
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|
<a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds">
|
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|
this book.</a>
|
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|
|
It's a good book, and Surowiecki was trying to tackle the same question I am:
|
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|
|
<b>“why do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom?”</b>
|
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<br><br>
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|
Surowiecki's answer: crowds make good decisions when everybody is as independent as possible.
|
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|
He gives the story of a county fair,
|
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|
where the townsfolk were invited to guess the weight of an ox.
|
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|
Surprisingly, the average of <i>all</i> their guesses was better than any <i>one</i> guess</i>.
|
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|
But, here's the rub: the people have to guess <i>independently</i> of each other.
|
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|
Otherwise,
|
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|
they'd be influenced by earlier incorrect guesses,
|
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and the average answer would be highly skewed.
|
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<br><br>
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But... I don't think "make everyone as independent as possible" is the full answer.
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Even geniuses, who we mischaracterize as the most independent thinkers,
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are deeply influenced by others. As Sir Isaac Newton said,
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<i>“If I have seen further, it is by standing on the sholders of Giants.”</i>
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<br><br>
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So, which idea is correct?
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Does wisdom come from thinking for yourself, or thinking with others?
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The answer is: "yes".
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<br><br>
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So that's what I'll try to explain in this explorable explanation:
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how to get that sweet spot between independence and interdependence —
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that is, how to get a wise crowd.
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</div>
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</bonus>
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<bonus id="connections">
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<h3>
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What other kinds of connections are there?
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</h3>
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<div>
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For the sake of simplicity,
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my simulations pretend that people can only be connected through friendships,
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and that all friendships are equal.
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But network scientists <i>do</i> consider other ways we can be connected, such as:
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/connection1.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>Directional connections.</b> Alice is the boss of Bob, but Bob is not the boss of Alice.
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Carol is the parent of Dave, but Dave is not the parent of Carol.
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"Boss" & "parent" are <i>directional</i> relationships:
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the relationship only goes one way.
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In contrast, "friends" is a <i>bidirectional</i> relationship:
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the relationship goes both ways. (well, hopefully)
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/connection2.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>Weighted connections.</b> Elinor and Frankie are mere acquaintances.
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George and Harry are Best Friends Forever.
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Even though there's a "friendship" connection in both cases, the second one is stronger.
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We say that these two connections have different "weights".
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/map.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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Just remember: <b>all these simulations are wrong.</b> The same way any map is "wrong".
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You see the map on the left? Buildings aren't gray featureless blocks!
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Words don't float above the city! However, maps are useful not <i>despite</i> being simplified,
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but <i>because</i> they're simplified. Same goes for simulations, or any scientific theory.
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Of <i>course</i> they're "wrong" — that's what makes them <i>useful</i>.
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</div>
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</bonus>
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<bonus id="contagions">
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<h3>
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What other kinds of contagions are there?
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</h3>
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<div>
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There are so, so many ways that network scientists can simulate "contagions"!
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I picked the simplest one, for educational purposes.
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But here's other ways you could do it:
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion1.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>Contagions with Randomness</b>.
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Being "exposed" to a contagion doesn't <i>guarantee</i> you'll be infected,
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it only makes it more <i>likely</i>.
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion2.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>People have different contagion thresholds.</b>
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My simulations pretend that everyone has the same threshold for binge-drinking (50%) or
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|
|
volunteering (25%) or misinformation (0%).
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|
Of course, that's not true in real life, and you could make your sim reflect that.
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion3.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>An ecology of contagions.</b>
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|
What if there were <i>multiple</i> contagions, with <i>different</i> thresholds?
|
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|
For example, a simple "madness" contagion and a complex "wisdom" contagion.
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|
If someone's infected with madness, can they still be infected with wisdom?
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Or vice versa?
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Can someone be infected with both?
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion4.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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|
<b>Contagions that mutate and evolve.</b>
|
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|
|
Ideas don't pass perfectly from one person to another the way a virus does.
|
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|
|
Like a game of Telephone, the message gets mutated with each re-telling —
|
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|
and sometimes the mutant will be more infectious than the original!
|
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|
So, over time, ideas "evolve" to be more catchy, copy-able, contagious.
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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</div>
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</bonus>
|
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<bonus id="further_reading">
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|
<h3>
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|
|
I wanna learn more! What else can I read and/or play?
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</h3>
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<div>
|
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|
|
This explorable explanation was just a springboard for your curiosity,
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|
|
so you can dive deeper into a vast pool of knowledge!
|
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|
|
Here's more stuff on networks or social systems:
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|
<br><br>
|
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|
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/connected.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
|
|
|
|
<b>Book:</b>
|
|
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|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
|
|
|
|
|
Connected</a>
|
|
|
|
|
by Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler (2009).
|
|
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|
|
An accessible tour of how our networks affect our lives, for good or ill.
|
|
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|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/pdf/excerpt.pdf">
|
|
|
|
|
Here's an excerpt: Preface & Chapter 1
|
|
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|
|
</a>
|
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|
|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
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|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/trust.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
|
|
|
|
<b>Interactive:</b>
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://ncase.me/trust/">
|
|
|
|
|
The Evolution of Trust</a> by Nicky Case (me) (2017).
|
|
|
|
|
A game about the game theory of how cooperation is built... or destroyed.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/polygons.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
|
|
|
|
<b>Interactive:</b>
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://ncase.me/polygons/">
|
|
|
|
|
Parable of the Polygons</a> by Vi Hart and Nicky Case (also me) (2014).
|
|
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|
|
A story about how harmless choices can create a harmful world.
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/ee.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
|
|
|
|
Or, if you just want to see a whole gallery of interactive edu-things, here's
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://explorabl.es/">
|
|
|
|
|
Explorable Explanations</a>,
|
|
|
|
|
a hub for learning through play!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</bonus>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
|
|
|
|
<!-- REFERENCES -->
|
|
|
|
|
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<!--
|
|
|
|
|
Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE:
|
|
|
|
|
-->
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
<reference id="drunk">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
“virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did.”
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1758185">
|
|
|
|
|
“Biases in the perception of drinking norms among college students”</a> by Baer et al (1991)
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="majority">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
“The Majority Illusion”
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147617">
|
|
|
|
|
“The Majority Illusion in Social Networks”</a> by Lerman et al (2016).
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
Related: <a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendship_paradox">
|
|
|
|
|
The Friendship Paradox</a>.
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="contagion">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
“strong statistical evidence that
|
|
|
|
|
smoking, health, happiness, voting patterns, and cooperation levels
|
|
|
|
|
are all contagious”
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
From Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's
|
|
|
|
|
wonderfully-written, layperson-accessible book,
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
|
|
|
|
|
Connected</a> (2009).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="suicides">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
“some evidence that suicides are [contagious], too”
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/42000514?seq=4#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
|
|
|
|
“Suicide Contagion and the Reporting of Suicide: Recommendations from a National Workshop”</a>
|
|
|
|
|
by O'Carroll et al (1994), endorsed by the frickin' Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC).
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="shootings">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
“some evidence that mass shootings are [contagious], too”
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0117259">
|
|
|
|
|
“Contagion in Mass Killings and School Shootings”</a> by Towers et al (2015).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Also see: the
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.dontnamethem.org/">
|
|
|
|
|
Don't Name Them</a> campaign,
|
|
|
|
|
which urges that news outlets <i>DO NOT</i> air mass murderers' names, manifestos, and social media feeds.
|
|
|
|
|
This spreads the contagion.
|
|
|
|
|
Instead, news outlets should focus on the victims, first responders, civilian heroes,
|
|
|
|
|
and the grieving, healing community.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="subprime">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
“The world's financial institutions fell for such a cascade in 2008.”
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://newrepublic.com/article/63023/wall-streets-lemmings">
|
|
|
|
|
“Lemmings of Wall Street”</a> by Cass Sunstein, is a quick, non-technical read.
|
|
|
|
|
Published in Oct 2008, right in the wake of the crash.
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="complex">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
“the complex contagion theory.”
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.unc.edu/~fbaum/teaching/articles/Granovetter_AJS_1978.pdf">
|
|
|
|
|
“Threshold Models of Collective Behavior”</a> by Granovetter (1978)
|
|
|
|
|
was the first time, as far as I know, anyone described a "complex contagion" model.
|
|
|
|
|
(although he didn't use that specific name)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0180802">
|
|
|
|
|
“Evidence for complex contagion models of social contagion from observational data”</a>
|
|
|
|
|
by Sprague & House (2017)
|
|
|
|
|
shows that complex contagions do, in fact, exist. (at least, in the social media data they looked at)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Finally,
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0403699.pdf">
|
|
|
|
|
“Universal behavior in a generalized model of contagion”</a> by Dodds & Watts (2004)
|
|
|
|
|
proposes a model that unifies <i>all</i> kinds of contagions:
|
|
|
|
|
simple and complex, biological and social!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="possum">
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
“the possum has 13 nipples”
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
arranged in a ring of 12 nipples, plus one in the middle
|
|
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|
|
</div>
|
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|
|
</reference>
|
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|
|
<reference id="groupthink">
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
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“groupthink”
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</h3>
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<div>
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This Orwell-inspired phrase was coined by Irving L. Janis in 1971.
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<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100401033524/http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/macdonald/GroupThink.pdf">
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In his original article</a>,
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Janis investigates cases of groupthink, lists its causes, and — thankfully —
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some possible remedies.
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</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="social_capital">
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<h3>
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“bonding and bridging social capital”
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</h3>
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<div>
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These two types of social capital — "bonding" and "bridging" —
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were named by Robert Putnam in his insightful 2000 book,
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<a target="_blank" href="http://bowlingalone.com/">
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Bowling Alone</a>. His discovery:
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across almost <i>all</i> empircal measures of social connectiveness,
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Americans are more alone than ever.
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Golly.
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</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="bridge">
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<h3>
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“bridging social capital has a sweet spot”
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</h3>
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<div>
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<a target="_blank" href="https://sociology.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/the_strength_of_weak_ties_and_exch_w-gans.pdf">
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“The Strength of Weak Ties”</a> by Granovetter (1973)
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showed that connections across groups helps spread simple contagions (like information),
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but
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<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/521848?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">
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“Complex Contagions and the Weakness of Long Ties”</a> by Centola & Macy (2007)
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showed that connections across groups may not help complex contagions,
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and it fact, can hurt their spread!
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</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="small_world">
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<h3>
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“the small world network”
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</h3>
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<div>
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The idea of the "small world" was popularized by
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<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/2786545">Travers & Milgram's 1969 experiment</a>,
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which showed that, on average, any two random people in the United States
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were just six friendships apart — "six degrees of separation"!
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<br><br>
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The small-world network got more mathematical meat on its bones with
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<a target="_blank" href="http://leonidzhukov.net/hse/2014/socialnetworks/papers/watts-collective_dynamics-nature_1998.pdf">
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“Collective dynamics of small-world networks”</a> by Watts & Strogatz (1998),
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which proposed an algorithm for creating networks
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with both low average path length (low degree of separation)
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and high clustering (friends have lots of mutual friends) —
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that is, a network that hits the sweet spot!
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<br><br>
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You can also play with
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<a target="_blank" href="http://worrydream.com/ScientificCommunicationAsSequentialArt/">
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the visual, interactive adaptation of that paper</a> by Bret Victor (2011).
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</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="swn_neurons">
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<h3>
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“[small world networks] describe how our neurons are connected”
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</h3>
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<div>
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<a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17079517">
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“Small-world brain networks”</a> by Bassett & Bullmore (2006).
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</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="swn_creativity">
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<h3>
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“[small world networks] give rise to collective creativity”
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</h3>
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<div>
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<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/432782?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">
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“Collaboration and Creativity: The Small World Problem”</a> by Uzzi & Spiro (2005).
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This paper analyzed the social network of the Broadway scene over time,
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and discovered that, yup, the network's most creative when it's a "small world" network!
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</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="swn_social_physics">
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<h3>
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“[small world networks] give rise to collective problem-solving”
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</h3>
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<div>
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See
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<a target="_blank" href="http://socialphysics.media.mit.edu/">
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“Social Physics”</a> by MIT Professor Alex "Sandy" Pentland (2014)
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for a data-based approach to collective intelligence.
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</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="swn_jfk">
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<h3>
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“[small world networks] helped John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war!”
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</h3>
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<div>
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Besides the NASA Challenger explosion, the most notorious example of groupthink
|
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|
|
was the Bay of Pigs fiasco.
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In 1961, US President John F. Kennedy and his team of advisors thought
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— for some reason —
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it would be a good idea to secretly invade Cuba and overthrow Fidel Castro.
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They failed.
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Actually, worse than failed: it led to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962,
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<i>the closest the world had ever been to full-scale nuclear war.</i>
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<br><br>
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Yup, JFK really screwed up on that one.
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<br><br>
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But, having learnt some hard lessons from the Bay of Pigs fiasco,
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JFK re-organized his team to avoid groupthink.
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Among many things, he:
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1) actively encouraged people to voice criticism,
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thus lowering the "contagion threshold" for alternate ideas.
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And
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2) he broke his team up into sub-groups before reconvening,
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which gave their group a "small world network"-like design!
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Together, this arrangement allowed for a healthy diversity of opinion,
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but without being too fractured — a wisdom of crowds.
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<br><br>
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And so, with the same <i>individuals</i> who decided the Bay of Pigs,
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but re-arranged <i>collectively</i> to decide on the Cuban Missile Crisis...
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JFK's team was able to reach a peaceful agreement with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev.
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The Soviets would remove their missiles from Cuba, and in return,
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the US would promise not to invade Cuba again.
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(and also agreed, in secret, to remove the US missiles from Turkey)
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<br><br>
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And that's the story of how all of humanity almost died.
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But a small world network saved the day! Sort of.
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<br><br>
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You can read more about this
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|
<a target="_blank" href="https://hbr.org/2013/11/how-john-f-kennedy-changed-decision-making">
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on Harvard Business Review</a>,
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or from
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<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100401033524/http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/macdonald/GroupThink.pdf">
|
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|
|
the original article on groupthink</a>.
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</div>
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</reference>
|
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<reference id="three_degrees">
|
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<h3>
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“we influence [...] our friends' friends' friends!”
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</h3>
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<div>
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|
Again, from Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's
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wonderful book,
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<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
|
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Connected</a> (2009).
|
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</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="flatter">
|
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<h3>
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|
“be skeptical of ideas that flatter you”
|
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</h3>
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<div>
|
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yes, including the ideas in <i>this</i> explorable explanation.
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</div>
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</reference>
|
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<reference id="sandbox">
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<h3>
|
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|
|
★ Sandbox Mode ★
|
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</h3>
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<div>
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|
The keyboard shortcuts (1, 2, space, backspace)
|
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|
work in <i>all</i> the puzzles, not just Sandbox Mode!
|
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Seriously, you can go back to a different chapter,
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and edit the simulation right there.
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In fact, that's how <i>I</i> created all these puzzles. Have fun!
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</div>
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</reference>
|
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<reference id="supporters" hidden=yes large=yes>
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<div>
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To
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<a target="_blank" href="https://www.patreon.com/ncase">my supporters on Patreon</a>:
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I'm deeply grateful.
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Your generosity <i>literally</i> feeds me and pays my rent,
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and grants me the creative freedom to make these weird math/social-science games.
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From the bottom of my heart, thank you!
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</div>
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</reference>
|
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|
|
<reference id="playtesters" hidden=yes large=yes>
|
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|
<div>
|
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Thank you, everyone who playtested <i>Crowds</i>
|
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|
|
during its many stages of life!
|
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<br><br>
|
|
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|
|
<b>The Prototype:</b>
|
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<br>
|
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|
Maria ·
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Monica Srivastava
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<br><br>
|
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<b>The Alpha:</b>
|
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<br>
|
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Glen Chiacchieri ·
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Kalli Repzeti ·
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Mali Akmanalp ·
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Toph Tucker
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<br><br>
|
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|
|
<b>The Beta:</b>
|
|
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|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
Alex Dytrych ·
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|
Amit Patel ·
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|
Cassandra McClure ·
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Catherine Ray ·
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Josh Comeau ·
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Kayle Sawyer ·
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Matthew Conlen ·
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Srini Kadamati ·
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Vanessa Shen ·
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Wick Perry
|
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</div>
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</reference>
|
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</span>
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<!--
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And that's it! That's the last of what needed to a TRANSLATE
|
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|
Thank you so, so much for doing this again, wow.
|
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Finally, go to "translations.txt" and follow the instructions there,
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|
in order to let this game "know" your translation exists.
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-->
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