2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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THE WISDOM AND/OR MADNESS OF CROWDS
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by Nicky Case | apr 2018
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- - - - - - - - - - -
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FAN TRANSLATION GUIDE:
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https://github.com/ncase/crowds#how-to-translate-this-thing
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Hello fan-translaters! Thank you so, so much for your help.
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I hope you know what you've gotten yourself into.
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There's about 3600+ WORDS to translate, including
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the Bonus Boxes and References.
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To make things easier (or less painful, anyway) I've marked
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what needs to be translated and how with big "TRANSLATE" comments.
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Ctrl+F for "TRANSLATE" in uppercase to see what needs to be translated!
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BUT BEFORE YOU TRANSLATE ANYTHING, DO THIS:
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1) Look up the two-letter code of the language you're translating to:
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ISO_639-1_codes
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2) *COPY* index.html, and name the copy [two-letter-code].html
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For example: de.html, ar.html, zh.html, etc...
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3) Translate *THAT* page. Do NOT modify the original index.html!
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And once you're done, go to "translations.txt", and follow the
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instructions there to let this game "know" your translation exists.
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Good luck, and thanks again!
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<3,
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~ Nicky Case
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-->
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html>
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<head>
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<!-- Meta Info -->
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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<title>Мудрость и/или безумие толп</title> <!-- <title>(TRANSLATE this part only)</title> -->
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<meta name="description" content="интерактивное руководство по человеческим сетям"/> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta content="text/html;charset=utf-8" http-equiv="Content-Type">
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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<meta content="utf-8" http-equiv="encoding">
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<meta charset="utf-8">
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<link rel="icon" type="image/png" href="favicon.png">
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<!-- Sharing -->
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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<meta itemprop="name" content="Мудрость и/или безумие толп"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta itemprop="description" content="интерактивное руководство по человеческим сетям"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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<meta itemprop="image" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/social/thumb.png">
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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<meta name="twitter:title" content="Мудрость и/или безумие толп"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta name="twitter:description" content="интерактивное руководство по человеческим сетям"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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<meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image">
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<meta name="twitter:site" content="@ncasenmare">
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<meta name="twitter:creator" content="@ncasenmare">
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<meta name="twitter:image" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/social/thumb.png">
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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<meta property="og:title" content="Мудрость и/или безумие толп"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta property="og:description" content="интерактивное руководство по человеческим сетям"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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<meta property="og:type" content="website">
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<meta property="og:url" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/">
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<meta property="og:image" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/social/thumb.png">
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<!-- Styles -->
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<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="css/index.css?v=3">
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2018-04-29 20:11:08 +00:00
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<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css?family=Pangolin" rel="stylesheet">
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<style>
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body {
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font-family: 'Pangolin', Helvetica, Arial;
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font-size: 20px !important;
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}
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</style>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</head>
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<body>
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<!-- THE SLIDESHOW -->
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<div id="container">
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<!-- Simulation(s) in background -->
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<div id="simulations_container">
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<div id="simulations"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Slideshow: words & buttons -->
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<div id="slideshow_container">
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<div id="slideshow"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Scratch Transition -->
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<canvas id="scratch" width="711" height="400"></canvas>
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<!-- Skip -->
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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<div id="skip" style="width: 150px">пропустить ></div> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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<!-- Modal -->
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<div id="modal_container">
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<div id="modal_bg"></div>
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<div id="modal">
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<div id="modal_close">⨯</div>
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<div id="modal_content_container">
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<div id="modal_content"></div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Navigation: Audio, Contents, Share, Translations -->
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<div id="navigation_container">
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<div id="sound" mute="no">
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<div id="sound_icon"></div>
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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<span id="sound_on">ВКЛ</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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<span id="sound_off">ВЫКЛ</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</div>
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<div id="sharing">
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<a id="fb" target="_blank" href="TODO"></a>
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<a id="tw" target="_blank" href="TODO"></a>
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<a id="em" target="_blank" href="TODO"></a>
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<span id="share_title">
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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Мудрость и/или безумие толп <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</span>
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<span id="share_desc">
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<!-- TRANSLATOR: keep this on ONE LINE or the social sharing will break! -->
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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Почему группы людей действуют умно, глупо, добро, жестоко? Интерактивное руководство по человеческим сетям: <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</span>
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</div>
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<div id="navigation">
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<!-- The chapters -->
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<!-- TRANSLATE all the Chapter names! -->
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<div chapter="Introduction">
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<span>0</span>
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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<span>0. Введение</span>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</div>
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<div chapter="Networks">
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<span>1</span>
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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<span>1. Связи</span>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</div>
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<div chapter="Simple">
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<span>2</span>
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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<span>2. Инфекции</span>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</div>
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<div chapter="Complex">
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<span>3</span>
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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<span>3. Комплексные инфекции</span>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</div>
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<div chapter="BB">
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<span>4</span>
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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<span>4. Связывающее & преодолевающее</span> <!-- note: & is html for the "and" sign -->
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</div>
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<div chapter="SmallWorld">
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<span>5</span>
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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<span>5. Это маленький мир</span>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</div>
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<div chapter="Conclusion">
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<span>6</span>
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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<span>6. В заключение...</span>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</div>
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<div chapter="Credits">
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<span>7</span>
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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<span>7. Авторство</span>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</div>
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<div chapter="Sandbox">
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<span>★</span>
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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<span>★ Песочница! ★</span>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</div>
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<!-- A divider -->
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<span class="nav_divider"></span>
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<!-- Bonus Notes & References -->
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<div modal="bonus">
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<span>?</span>
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<span>Bonus Boxes!</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</div>
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<div modal="references">
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<span style="margin-top: 7px; font-size: 35px;">*</span>
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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<span>Ссылки & референсы</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</div>
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<div modal="translations">
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<span style="margin-top:5px; position:relative;"><span style="
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position: absolute;
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top: -8px;
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left: 6px;
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">A</span><span style="
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position: absolute;
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font-size: 16px;
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top: -1px;
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left: 16px;
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">あ</span></span>
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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<span>Переводы</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</div>
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<!-- The hover bubble -->
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<span id="nav_bubble"></span>
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</div>
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<div id="translations"></div>
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<div id="social"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- The Pencil -->
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<div id="pencil_container">
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<canvas id="pencil"></canvas>
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</div>
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<!-- Preloader -->
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<div id="pre_preloader">
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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<div>загрузка...</div> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</div>
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</body>
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</html>
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<!-- - - - - -->
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<!-- SCRIPTS -->
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<!-- - - - - -->
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<script src="js/lib/helpers.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/minpubsub.src.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/howler.min.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/Key.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/Mouse.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/Sprite.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Slideshow.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Pencil.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Boxes.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Scratch.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Navigation.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/SimUI.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/SandboxUI.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Modal.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Preloader.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Translations.js?v=2"></script>
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<script src="js/sim/Peep.js?v=2"></script>
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<script src="js/sim/Connection.js"></script>
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<script src="js/sim/ConnectorCutter.js"></script>
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<script src="js/sim/Simulations.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/A_Preloader.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/B_Introduction.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/C_Networks.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/D_Simple_Contagion.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/E_Complex_Contagion.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/F_Bonding_And_Bridging.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/G_Small_World.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/H_Conclusion.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/I_Credits.js"></script>
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Translate just the text that's within the <tag></tags>
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If you're using a code editor (like Sublime Text https://www.sublimetext.com/),
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it should automatically highlight what the text is (usually in white).
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-->
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<words id="preloader_title">
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<div style="font-size: 30px;">
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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<br>
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<span style="font-size: 45px;">МУДРОСТЬ</span>
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<span style="position:relative; top: -5px;">и/или</span>
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<span style="font-size: 45px;">БЕЗУМИЕ</span>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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<br>
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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<span style="font-size: 100px;line-height: 80px;position: relative; display:block;">ТОЛП</span>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</div>
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<div style="color:#999">
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<!-- TRANSLATE note: comment out the line below... -->
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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<!-- playing time: 30 min • by nicky case, april 2018 -->
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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<!-- ...and UN-comment + TRANSLATE this line! -->
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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от nicky case • перевод <a href="https://toby3d.github.io">toby3d</a> • <a href='/'>original in English</a>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</div>
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</words>
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<next></next>
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</words>
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<words id="preloader_loading">
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загрузка...
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</words>
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<words id="preloader_play">
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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сыграть! <div class="rarr"></div>
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</words>
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<!-- Introduction -->
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<!--
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TRANSLATE note: to make the text stay in a circle, I added lots of <br> breaks.
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You may have to re-arrange the <br>'s in order to do your translation.
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It shouldn't look too bad if they're slightly off, though!
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Also, <b></b> bolds a word/phrase, and <i></i> italicizes a word/phrase.
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-->
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<words id="intro">
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<br><br>
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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Сэр Исаак Ньютон был уверен, что он был<br>
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умным. Я имею в виду, что после изобретения<br>
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исчисления и теории гравитации он должен быть<br>
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достаточно умен, чтобы сделать какое-то финансовое<br>
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вложение, не так ли? Во всяком случае, если говорить<br>
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коротко, он потерял 4 600 000 долларов (в сегодняшних<br>
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долларах) в общенациональной спекуляции, известной как<br>
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Пузырь Южных морей 1720 года.
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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<br><br>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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Как г-н Ньютон сказал позже: <i>“Я могу рассчитать<br>
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движения небесных тел, но не безумие людей.”</i>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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<br>
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<next>да, ужасно для него <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="intro_2">
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<div style="height:0.5em"></div>
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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Конечно, это не единственные<br>
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временные рынки, институты или целые<br>
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демократические страны, которые сходили с<br>
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ума - <i>безумие</i> толп. И все же, когда вы теряете<br>
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надежду на человечество, вы видите граждан<br>
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координирующих спасение друг друга в ураганах, сообщества,<br>
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создающих решения проблем, людей, сражающихся за<br>
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лучший мир - <i>мудрость</i> толп!
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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<b>Но <i>почему</i> некоторые толпы обращаются к безумию или<br>
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мудрости?</b> Никакая теория не может объяснить всё, но я<br>
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думаю, что новая область исследования, социология,<br>
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может нам помочь! И его основная идея заключается<br>
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в следующем: чтобы понять толпу, мы должны<br>
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смотреть не на <i>отдельных</i> людей, а на...
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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<next>...их <i>связи</i>. <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<!-- Networks -->
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<words id="networks_tutorial_start">
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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<b>Нарисуем сеть!</b>
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Каждое соединение представляет собой дружбу между двумя людьми:
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="networks_tutorial_connect">
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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рисуй для соединения
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="networks_tutorial_disconnect">
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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перечеркни для разделения
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="networks_tutorial_end">
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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когда ты закончишь рисовать и играть,
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<next wiggle>давай продолжим <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="networks_threshold">
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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Сейчас, социальные связи - это больше, чем просто красивые картинки.
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Люди <i>смотрят</i> на свои социальные связи, чтобы понять свой мир.
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Например, люди обращаются к своим сверстникам, чтобы узнать <b>какой
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% их друзей (не считая себя)</b>, скажем, выпивают. <icon name="yellow"></icon>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="networks_threshold_instruction">
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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<b>Нарисуй/сотри соединения и посмотри что произойдёт! <div class="rarr"></div> </b>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="networks_threshold_end">
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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<next>круто, получилось</next>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="networks_pre_puzzle">
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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Однако сети могут <i>обманывать</i> людей.
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Точно так же, как земля кажется плоской, потому что мы на ней, люди
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могут ошибаться в отношении общества, потому что они <i>в</i> нём.
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="optional_reading">
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<div style="position:absolute; top:5px;">
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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<i>опциональные</i> заметки! ↑
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</div>
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<div style="position:absolute; left:216px; top:10px;">
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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↓ ссылки и референсы
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</div>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_pre_puzzle_2">
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<bon id="books"></bon>
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<br>
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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Например, исследование<ref id="drunk"></ref> 1991 года показало,
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что “практически все студенты [колледжа] сообщили, что их друзья пьют больше, чем они”.
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Но это кажется невозможным!
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Как это может быть?
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Ну, ты придумаешь ответ самостоятельно, нарисовав сеть.
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Сейчас самое время...
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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<next>ОБМАНУТЬ ВСЕХ <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="networks_puzzle">
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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<b style="font-size:1.9em">ВРЕМЯ ПАЗЗЛОВ!</b>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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<br>
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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Обмани <i>всех</i>, заставив подумать что большинство их друзей (порог в 50%) являются пьяницами <icon name="yellow"></icon>
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(хотя любителей выпить превосходят численностью 2 к 1!)
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="networks_puzzle_metric">
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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<b>ОБМАНУТО:</b>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="networks_puzzle_metric_2">
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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из 9 человек
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="networks_puzzle_end">
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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Поздравляю! Ты манипулируешь группой студентов, чтобы те поверили
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в распространенность невероятно нездоровой социальной нормы! Хорошо идёт!
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<next wiggle>...ух. спасибо?</next>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="networks_post_puzzle">
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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То, что ты только что создал, называется Иллюзией большинства<ref id="majority"></ref>,
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что также объясняет, почему люди считают, что их политические взгляды являются консенсусом
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или почему экстремизм кажется более распространенным, чем он есть на самом деле.
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<i>Безумие.</i>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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<bon id="connections"></bon>
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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Но люди не просто пассивно <i>наблюдают</i> за другими идеями и поведением,
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они активно <i>копируют</i> их.
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Итак, давай посмотрим, что ученые сетей называют...
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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2018-04-29 20:13:16 +00:00
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<next>“Инфекциями!” <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<!-- Simple Contagions -->
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<words id="simple_simple">
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2018-04-30 14:44:22 +00:00
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<i>Отложим в сторону "пограничную" вещь.</i>
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Ниже: у нас есть человек <icon name="red"></icon> с некоторой информацией.
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Некоторой <i>дез</i>информацией. "Fake news", как говорят крутые дети.
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И каждый день этот человек распространяет слух, как вирус, своим друзьям.
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И те - <i>своим</i> друзьям. И т.д.
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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<br>
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<b>
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2018-04-30 14:44:22 +00:00
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Запусти симуляцию! <div class="darr"></div>
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(p.s: ты не можешь рисовать <i>пока</i> активна симуляция)
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</b>
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</words>
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<words id="simple_simple_2">
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2018-04-30 14:44:22 +00:00
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Примечание: несмотря на отрицательное имя, "инфекции" могут быть хорошими или
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плохими (или нейтральными, или неоднозначными). Имеются сильные статистические
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данные<ref id="contagion"></ref> о том, что курение, здоровье, счастье, модели
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голосования и уровни сотрудничества являются "заразными", и даже некоторые
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доказательства того, что самоубийства<ref id="suicides"></ref> и массовые
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расстрелы<ref id="shootings"></ref> - тоже.
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="simple_simple_end">
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2018-04-30 14:44:22 +00:00
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<next wiggle>что ж, это удручает <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="simple_cascade">
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2018-04-30 14:44:22 +00:00
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Действительно.
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В любом случае, <b>ВРЕМЯ ПАЗЗЛА!</b>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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<br>
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2018-04-30 14:44:22 +00:00
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Нарисуй сеть & запусти симуляцию,
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чтобы <i>все</i> были заражены "инфекцией".
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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<br>
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2018-04-30 14:44:22 +00:00
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(новое правило: ты не можешь резать <i>широкие</i> соединения)
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="simple_cascade_end">
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2018-04-30 14:44:22 +00:00
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<next wiggle>фан-перевор-тастик <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="simple_post_cascade">
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2018-04-30 14:44:22 +00:00
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Это нарастание безумия называется <b>"информационным каскадом"</b>.
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Г-н Ньютон пал из-за такого каскада в 1720 году.
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Финансовые институты мира пали из-за такого каскада в 2008 году.<ref id="subprime"></ref>
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<br><br>
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Однако: <i>эта симуляция ошибочна.</i>
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Большинство идей <i>не</i> распространяются, как вирусы.
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Для большинства убеждений и поведений тебе нужно "подвергнуться" инфекции более чем один раз,
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чтобы "заразиться".
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Итак, ученые сетей придумали новый, лучший способ описать, как развиваются
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идеи/поведения, и они называют это...
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<next wiggle style="font-size: 18px;">“<i>Комплексные</i> инфекции!” <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<!-- Complex Contagions -->
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<words id="complex_complex">
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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Давайте вернем "границы" и пример с выпивкой <icon name="yellow"></icon>!
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Когда ты впервые играл с этим, люди не меняли своего поведения.
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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<br><br>
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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Теперь давай смоделируем, что произойдет, если люди начнут пить,
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<i>когда +50% их друзей -- тоже!</i>
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<b>Перед тем как начать симуляцию, спроси себя, что ты думаешь, что <i>должно</i> произойти.</b>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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<br><br>
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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<b>Теперь запусти симуляцию и посмотри, что на самом деле произойдёт! <div class="rarr"></div> </b>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_complex_2">
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<span style="line-height:1.3em; display:block;">
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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В отличие от нашей более ранней "fake news" <icon name="red"></icon> инфекции,
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эта инфекция <icon name="yellow"></icon> <i>не</i> распространяется на всех!
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Первые несколько человек становятся "заражёнными", потому что, хотя они подвержены
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только одному пьянице, этот пьяница составляет 50% от их друзей. (да, они одиноки)
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Напротив, человек, находящийся ближе к концу цепи, <i>не</i> заразился, потому что,
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когда он был подвергнут выпивке, тот не прошел порог в +50%.
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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<i>Относительный</i> % "зараженных" друзей имеет значение.
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В <i>этом</i> и заключается разница между теорией <b>комплексной инфекции</b><ref id="complex"></ref>
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и нашей наивной распространяющейся-как-вирус теории распространения <b>простой инфекции</b>.
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(ты мог бы сказать, что "простая инфекция" - это всего лишь зараза с "более чем 0%" порогом заражения)
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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Тем не менее, инфекции не обязательно плохие —
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достаточно о <i>безумии</i> толпы, как насчёт...
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<next>...толпы <i>мудрости?</i></next>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</span>
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</words>
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<words id="complex_complex_3">
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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Здесь у нас есть человек <icon name="blue"></icon>, который добровольно... Я не знаю,
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спасает людей от ураганов или обучает малоимущих детей в их местном сообществе, или что-то вроде того.
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Дело в том, что это "хорошая" комплексная инфекция.
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Однако на этот раз, допустим, порог составляет всего 25% —
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люди готовы стать волонтёрами, но только если это также делают 25% или более их друзей.
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Эй, доброжелательность нуждается в некоторой социальной поддержке.
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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<br><br>
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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<b>← Заставь всех "заразиться" хорошими флюидами!</b>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_complex_3_end">
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<span style="line-height:1.3em; display:block;">
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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<b>ПРИМЕЧАНИЕ:</b> Волонтёрство, это лишь <i>одна</i> из многих комплексных инфекций!
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Другие включают в себя: явку избирателей, привычки,
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оспаривание убеждений, время, чтобы глубоко разобраться в проблеме — всё,
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что требует более одного "разоблачения".
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Комплексные инфекции <i>не обязательно</i> мудры,
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но быть мудрым - комплексная инфекция.
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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(Итак, что <i>действительно</i> является простой инфекцией?
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Обычно разные мелочи, вроде "опоссум имеет 13 сосков"<ref id="possum"></ref>)
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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<bon id="contagions"></bon>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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Теперь, чтобы <i>действительно</i> показать силу и странность комплексных инфекций, давай пересмотрим...
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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<next>...более ранний паззл <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</span>
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</words>
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<words id="complex_cascade">
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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Помнишь это? В этот раз, с <i>комплексной</i> инфекцией <icon name="blue"></icon>, это будет немного сложнее...
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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<br>
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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<b>Попробуй "заразить" всех комплексной мудростью! <div class="darr"></div></b>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_cascade_feel_free">
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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(не стесняйся просто нажать 'начать' и <i>попробовать</i> столько решений, сколько захочешь)
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_cascade_end">
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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<next wiggle>ЧЁРТ ПОДЕРИ <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_post_cascade">
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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Сейчас ты можешь подумать, что тебе просто нужно продолжать добавлять соединения для распространения любой инфекции,
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"комплексной" или "простой", хорошей или плохой, мудрой или безумной.
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Но так ли это? Что ж, давай пересмотрим...
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_post_cascade_end">
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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<next wiggle>...другой ранний паззл <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_prevent">
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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Если ты нажмёшь "старт" ниже, комплексная инфекция <icon name="blue"></icon> просто будет распространяться на всех.
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Никаких сюрпризов.
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Но теперь, давай сделаем <i>противоположное</i> всему, что мы делали раньше:
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<b>нарисуй сеть, чтобы <i>предотвратить</i> распространение заразы на всех!</b> <div class="darr"></div>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_prevent_2">
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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Видишь?
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В то время как много связей всегда будет способствовать распространению <i>простых</i> идей,
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<b>слишком много связей может нарушить распространение <i>комплексных</i> идей!</b>
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(заставляет задуматься об интернете, хм?)
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И это не просто теоретическая проблема. Это может быть вопросом жизни...
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_prevent_end">
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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<next wiggle>...или смерти. <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_groupthink">
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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Люди в НАСА были умными.
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Я имею в виду, что они использовали теории Ньютона, чтобы доставить нас на Луну.
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Во всяком случае, если коротко, в 1986 году,
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<i>несмотря на предупреждения инженеров</i>,
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они запустили <i>Challenger</i>,
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который взорвался и убил 7 человек.
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Основная причина:
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в то утро было слишком холодно.
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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Менее основная причина: менеджеры игнорировали предупреждения инженеров.
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Зачем? Из-за <b>группового мышления</b><ref id="groupthink"></ref>.
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Когда группа <i>слишком</i> тесно связана, (как правило находясь на вершине институтов)
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она становится устойчивой к комплексным идеям, которые бросают вызов её убеждениям или эго.
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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Вот как институты могут пасть до безумной толпы.
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Но как мы можем "спроектировать" для толпы <i>мудрость?</i>
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Короче, два слова:
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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2018-04-30 16:07:45 +00:00
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<next style="font-size: 14px;">Связывающее & преодолевающее <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<!-- Bonding & Bridging -->
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<words id="bonding_1">
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← Too few connections, and an idea can't spread.
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<br>
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Too many connections, and you get groupthink. <div class="rarr"></div>
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</words>
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<words id="bonding_2">
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<b>
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Draw a group that hits the sweet spot:
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just connected enough to spread a complex idea!
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<div class="darr"></div>
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</b>
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</words>
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<words id="bonding_end">
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Simple enough!
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The number of connections <i>within</i> a group is called <b>bonding social capital</b><ref id="social_capital"></ref>.
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But what about the connections...
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<next wiggle>...<i>between</i> groups?</next>
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</words>
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<words id="bridging_1">
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As you may have already guessed,
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the number of connections <i>between</i> groups is called
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<b>bridging social capital</b>.
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This is important, because it helps groups break out of their insular echo chambers!
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<br>
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<b>Build a bridge, to "infect" everyone with complex wisdom:</b>
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</words>
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<words id="bridging_end">
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Like bonding, there's a sweet spot for bridging, too.<ref id="bridge"></ref>
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(extra challenge: try drawing a bridge so thick that the complex contagion
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<i>can't</i> pass through it!)
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Now that we know how to "design" connections <i>within</i> and <i>between</i> groups, let's...
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<next wiggle>...do BOTH at the same time!</next>
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</words>
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<words id="bb_1">
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<b style="font-size:2em">FINAL PUZZLE!</b>
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<br>
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Draw connections within groups (bonding) and between groups (bridging)
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to spread wisdom to the whole crowd:
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</words>
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<words id="bb_2">
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Congrats, you've just drawn a very special kind of network!
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Networks with the right mix of bonding and bridging
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are profoundly important, and they're called...
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<next wiggle>“Small World Networks” <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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</words>
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<words id="bb_small_world_1">
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<i>"Unity without uniformity". "Diversity without division". "E Pluribus Unum: out of many, one".</i>
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<br>
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No matter how it's phrased,
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people across times and cultures often arrive at the same piece of wisdom:
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<b>
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a healthy society needs a sweet spot of bonds <i>within</i> groups
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and bridges <i>between</i> groups.
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</b>
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That is:
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</words>
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<words id="bb_small_world_2">
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Not this...
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<br>
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(because ideas can't spread)
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</words>
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<words id="bb_small_world_3">
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nor this...
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<br>
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(because you'll get groupthink)
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</words>
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<words id="bb_small_world_4">
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...but <i>THIS:</i>
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</words>
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<words id="bb_small_world_5">
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Network scientists now have a mathematical definition for this ancient wisdom:
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the <b>small world network</b><ref id="small_world"></ref>.
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This optimal mix of bonding+bridging describes how
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our neurons are connected<ref id="swn_neurons"></ref>,
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fosters collective creativity<ref id="swn_creativity"></ref>
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and problem-solving<ref id="swn_social_physics"></ref>,
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and even once helped US President John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war!<ref id="swn_jfk"></ref>
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So, yeah, small worlds are a big deal.
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</words>
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<words id="bb_small_world_end">
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<next>ok, let's wrap this up... <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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</words>
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<!-- Sandbox -->
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<words id="sandbox_caption">
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(pst... wanna know a secret?<ref id="sandbox"></ref>)
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_contagion">
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Contagion:
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_contagion_simple">
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simple
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_contagion_complex">
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complex
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_color_chooser">
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The Contagion's Color:
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_chooser">
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Select a tool...
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_pencil">
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Draw Network
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_add">
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Add Person
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_add_infected">
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Add "Infected"
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_move">
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Drag Person
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_delete">
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Delete Person
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_clear">
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<b>CLEAR IT ALL</b>
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_shortcuts_label">
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(...or, use keyboard shortcuts!)
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_shortcuts">
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[1]: Add Person [2]: Add "Infected"
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<br>
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[Space]: Drag [Backspace]: Delete
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</words>
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<!-- Conclusion -->
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<words id="conclusion_1">
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<div style="font-size: 30px;">
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IN CONCLUSION: it's all about...
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</div>
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<div style="
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width: 100%;
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position: absolute;
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font-size: 88px;
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top: 20px;
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line-height: 100px; display:block;
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">
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Contagions & Connections
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</div>
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<div style="
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width: 710px;
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position: absolute;
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top: 125px;
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left: 250px;
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">
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<b>Contagions:</b>
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Like how neurons pass signals in a brain,
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people pass beliefs & behaviors in a society.
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Not only do we influence our friends,
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we also influence our friends' friends, and even our friends' friends' friends!<ref id="three_degrees"></ref>
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(“be the change you wanna see in the world” etc etc)
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|
But, like neurons, it's not just signals that matter, it's also...
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</div>
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<div style="
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width: 710px;
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position: absolute;
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top: 275px;
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left: 250px;
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">
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<b>Connections:</b>
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Too few connections and complex ideas can't spread.
|
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Too <i>many</i> connections and complex ideas get crushed by groupthink.
|
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The trick is to build a small world network, the optimal mix of
|
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bonding and bridging: <i>e pluribus unum.</i>
|
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</div>
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<div style="
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width: 350px;
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position: absolute;
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top: 410px;
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left: 220px;
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text-align: center;
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color: #999;
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">
|
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(wanna make your own simulations?
|
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|
check out Sandbox Mode, by clicking the (★) button below!)
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</div>
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<div style="
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width: 400px;
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position: absolute;
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top: 395px;
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right: 0px;
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text-align: right;
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">
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So, what about our question from the very beginning?
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Why <i>do</i> some crowds turn to...
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</div>
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<div style="
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width: 300px;
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position: absolute;
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top: 460px;
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right: 0px;
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">
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<next>...wisdom and/or madness?</next>
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</div>
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</words>
|
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<words id="conclusion_2">
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<span style="line-height:1.4em; display:block;">
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<div style="height:0.5em"></div>
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|
From Newton to NASA to
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<br>
|
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|
network science, we've covered a lot here
|
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<br>
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today. Long story short, the madness of crowds
|
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<br>
|
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|
is not necessarily due to the <i>individual people</i>, but due
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<br>
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to how we're trapped in a network's sticky web.
|
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<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
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That <i>does NOT</i> mean abandoning personal responsibility, for
|
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<br>
|
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we're also the <i>weavers</i> of that web. So, improve your contagions:
|
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|
<br>
|
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|
|
be skeptical of ideas that flatter you<ref id="flatter"></ref>, spend time understanding
|
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|
<br>
|
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|
|
|
|
complex ideas. And, improve your connections: bond with similar
|
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<br>
|
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|
folk, but also build bridges across cultural/political divides.
|
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|
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
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We can weave a wise web. Sure, it's harder than doodling
|
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<br>
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|
lines on a screen...
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<next>...but so, so worth it.</next>
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</span>
|
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</words>
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|
<words id="conclusion_3">
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|
<i>
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|
|
“The great triumphs and tragedies of history are caused,
|
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|
|
not by people being fundamentally good or fundamentally bad,
|
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|
|
but by people being fundamentally people.”
|
|
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|
|
</i>
|
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|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<span style="position:relative; top:5px">~</span> Neil Gaiman & Terry Pratchett
|
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|
|
<div style="height:0.8em"></div>
|
|
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|
<next small><3</next>
|
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</words>
|
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|
<!-- Credits -->
|
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<words id="credits">
|
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<div style="text-align:center; color:#fff; letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 24px; line-height: 27px;">
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<span style="color:#777; position:relative; top:5px;">
|
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|
created by</span>
|
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<div style="font-size: 3em; line-height: 1.0em;">
|
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|
|
NICKY CASE</div>
|
|
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|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://ncase.me" style="text-decoration:none">
|
|
|
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|
|
play my other shtuff</a> ·
|
|
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|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/ncasenmare" style="text-decoration:none">
|
|
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|
follow my tweeter</a>
|
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<br><br>
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<span style="color:#777; position:relative; top:5px; display: inline-block; margin-top: 15px;">
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lots of love and thanks to</span>
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<div style="font-size: 3em; line-height: 1.0em;">
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MY PATREON SUPPORTERS</div>
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<a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["supporters"]);'>
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see names & drawings of supporters</a> ·
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<a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["playtesters"]);'>
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see playtesters</a>
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<br>
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<a target="_blank" href="https://www.patreon.com/ncase" style="text-decoration:none">
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help me make more like this! <3</a>
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<br><br>
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<span style="display: inline-block; margin-top: 15px;">
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♫ music is
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<a target="_blank" href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Komiku/Tale_on_the_Late/" style="text-decoration:none">
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"Friends 2018" and "Friends 2068"</a>
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by Komiku
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<br>
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</> <i>Crowds</i> is
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<a target="_blank" href="https://github.com/ncase/crowds" style="text-decoration:none">
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fully open source</a>
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</span>
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<br>
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<bon id="further_reading"></bon>
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</div>
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</words>
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<!-- x. misc -->
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<words id="WIN">
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WIN
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</words>
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<words id="sim_start">
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start simulation
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</words>
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<words id="sim_stop">
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reset & re-draw
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</words>
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<words id="translations_exist">
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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Фан-переводы:
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="translations_do_not_exist">
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<!-- There's no need to TRANSLATE this line since, well, -->
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<!-- it'll only show up if no translations exist -->
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What the, no fan-made translations exist yet?!
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</words>
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<words id="translations_add">
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2018-04-29 20:09:17 +00:00
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(добавь свой!)
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2018-04-29 14:38:46 +00:00
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</words>
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<!-- - - - - - - -->
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<!-- - - - - - - -->
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<!--
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Sorry, not done yet! These Bonus Boxes need you to TRANSLATE, too:
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(And then afterwards, the final thing, translate the References)
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-->
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<bonus id="books">
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<h3>
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A quick response to James Surowiecki's <i>The Wisdom of Crowds</i>
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</h3>
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<div>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/surowieki.jpg" width="200" height="300" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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First off, I'm not dissing
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<a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds">
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this book.</a>
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It's a good book, and Surowiecki was trying to tackle the same question I am:
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<b>“why do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom?”</b>
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<br><br>
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Surowiecki's answer: crowds make good decisions when everybody is as independent as possible.
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He gives the story of a county fair,
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where the townsfolk were invited to guess the weight of an ox.
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Surprisingly, the average of <i>all</i> their guesses was better than any <i>one</i> guess</i>.
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But, here's the rub: the people have to guess <i>independently</i> of each other.
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Otherwise,
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they'd be influenced by earlier incorrect guesses,
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and the average answer would be highly skewed.
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<br><br>
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But... I don't think "make everyone as independent as possible" is the full answer.
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Even geniuses, who we mischaracterize as the most independent thinkers,
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are deeply influenced by others. As Sir Isaac Newton said,
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<i>“If I have seen further, it is by standing on the sholders of Giants.”</i>
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<br><br>
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So, which idea is correct?
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Does wisdom come from thinking for yourself, or thinking with others?
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The answer is: "yes".
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<br><br>
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So that's what I'll try to explain in this explorable explanation:
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how to get that sweet spot between independence and interdependence —
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that is, how to get a wise crowd.
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</div>
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</bonus>
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<bonus id="connections">
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<h3>
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What other kinds of connections are there?
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</h3>
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<div>
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For the sake of simplicity,
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my simulations pretend that people can only be connected through friendships,
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and that all friendships are equal.
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But network scientists <i>do</i> consider other ways we can be connected, such as:
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/connection1.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>Directional connections.</b> Alice is the boss of Bob, but Bob is not the boss of Alice.
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Carol is the parent of Dave, but Dave is not the parent of Carol.
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"Boss" & "parent" are <i>directional</i> relationships:
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the relationship only goes one way.
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In contrast, "friends" is a <i>bidirectional</i> relationship:
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the relationship goes both ways. (well, hopefully)
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/connection2.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>Weighted connections.</b> Elinor and Frankie are mere acquaintances.
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George and Harry are Best Friends Forever.
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Even though there's a "friendship" connection in both cases, the second one is stronger.
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We say that these two connections have different "weights".
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/map.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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Just remember: <b>all these simulations are wrong.</b> The same way any map is "wrong".
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You see the map on the left? Buildings aren't gray featureless blocks!
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Words don't float above the city! However, maps are useful not <i>despite</i> being simplified,
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but <i>because</i> they're simplified. Same goes for simulations, or any scientific theory.
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Of <i>course</i> they're "wrong" — that's what makes them <i>useful</i>.
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</div>
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</bonus>
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<bonus id="contagions">
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<h3>
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What other kinds of contagions are there?
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</h3>
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<div>
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There are so, so many ways that network scientists can simulate "contagions"!
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I picked the simplest one, for educational purposes.
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But here's other ways you could do it:
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion1.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>Contagions with Randomness</b>.
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Being "exposed" to a contagion doesn't <i>guarantee</i> you'll be infected,
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it only makes it more <i>likely</i>.
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion2.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>People have different contagion thresholds.</b>
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My simulations pretend that everyone has the same threshold for binge-drinking (50%) or
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volunteering (25%) or misinformation (0%).
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Of course, that's not true in real life, and you could make your sim reflect that.
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion3.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>An ecology of contagions.</b>
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What if there were <i>multiple</i> contagions, with <i>different</i> thresholds?
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For example, a simple "madness" contagion and a complex "wisdom" contagion.
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If someone's infected with madness, can they still be infected with wisdom?
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Or vice versa?
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Can someone be infected with both?
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion4.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>Contagions that mutate and evolve.</b>
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Ideas don't pass perfectly from one person to another the way a virus does.
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Like a game of Telephone, the message gets mutated with each re-telling —
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and sometimes the mutant will be more infectious than the original!
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So, over time, ideas "evolve" to be more catchy, copy-able, contagious.
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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</div>
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</bonus>
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<bonus id="further_reading">
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<h3>
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I wanna learn more! What else can I read and/or play?
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</h3>
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<div>
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This explorable explanation was just a springboard for your curiosity,
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so you can dive deeper into a vast pool of knowledge!
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Here's more stuff on networks or social systems:
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<br><br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/connected.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>Book:</b>
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<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
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Connected</a>
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by Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler (2009).
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An accessible tour of how our networks affect our lives, for good or ill.
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<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/pdf/excerpt.pdf">
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Here's an excerpt: Preface & Chapter 1
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</a>
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/trust.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>Interactive:</b>
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<a target="_blank" href="http://ncase.me/trust/">
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The Evolution of Trust</a> by Nicky Case (me) (2017).
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A game about the game theory of how cooperation is built... or destroyed.
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/polygons.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>Interactive:</b>
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<a target="_blank" href="http://ncase.me/polygons/">
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Parable of the Polygons</a> by Vi Hart and Nicky Case (also me) (2014).
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A story about how harmless choices can create a harmful world.
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/ee.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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Or, if you just want to see a whole gallery of interactive edu-things, here's
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<a target="_blank" href="http://explorabl.es/">
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Explorable Explanations</a>,
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a hub for learning through play!
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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</div>
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</bonus>
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<!-- - - - - - - -->
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<!-- REFERENCES -->
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<!-- - - - - - - -->
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<!--
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|
Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE:
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-->
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<reference id="drunk">
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<h3>
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|
“virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did.”
|
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1758185">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Biases in the perception of drinking norms among college students”</a> by Baer et al (1991)
|
|
|
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|
|
</div>
|
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|
|
</reference>
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|
|
<reference id="majority">
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|
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|
|
<h3>
|
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|
|
“The Majority Illusion”
|
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|
|
</h3>
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|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147617">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“The Majority Illusion in Social Networks”</a> by Lerman et al (2016).
|
|
|
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|
|
<br>
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|
|
|
|
|
Related: <a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendship_paradox">
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Friendship Paradox</a>.
|
|
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|
|
</div>
|
|
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|
|
</reference>
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|
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|
|
<reference id="contagion">
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|
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|
|
<h3>
|
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|
|
|
|
“strong statistical evidence that
|
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|
|
|
|
smoking, health, happiness, voting patterns, and cooperation levels
|
|
|
|
|
|
are all contagious”
|
|
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|
|
|
</h3>
|
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|
|
<div>
|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
From Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's
|
|
|
|
|
|
wonderfully-written, layperson-accessible book,
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
|
|
|
|
|
|
Connected</a> (2009).
|
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|
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|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="suicides">
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
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|
|
“some evidence that suicides are [contagious], too”
|
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|
|
</h3>
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/42000514?seq=4#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Suicide Contagion and the Reporting of Suicide: Recommendations from a National Workshop”</a>
|
|
|
|
|
|
by O'Carroll et al (1994), endorsed by the frickin' Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC).
|
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|
|
|
</div>
|
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|
|
</reference>
|
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|
<reference id="shootings">
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|
|
<h3>
|
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|
|
“some evidence that mass shootings are [contagious], too”
|
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|
|
</h3>
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0117259">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Contagion in Mass Killings and School Shootings”</a> by Towers et al (2015).
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
Also see: the
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.dontnamethem.org/">
|
|
|
|
|
|
Don't Name Them</a> campaign,
|
|
|
|
|
|
which urges that news outlets <i>DO NOT</i> air mass murderers' names, manifestos, and social media feeds.
|
|
|
|
|
|
This spreads the contagion.
|
|
|
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|
|
Instead, news outlets should focus on the victims, first responders, civilian heroes,
|
|
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|
|
|
and the grieving, healing community.
|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
</div>
|
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|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="subprime">
|
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
“The world's financial institutions fell for such a cascade in 2008.”
|
|
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|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://newrepublic.com/article/63023/wall-streets-lemmings">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Lemmings of Wall Street”</a> by Cass Sunstein, is a quick, non-technical read.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Published in Oct 2008, right in the wake of the crash.
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
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|
|
<reference id="complex">
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
“the complex contagion theory.”
|
|
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|
|
|
</h3>
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.unc.edu/~fbaum/teaching/articles/Granovetter_AJS_1978.pdf">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Threshold Models of Collective Behavior”</a> by Granovetter (1978)
|
|
|
|
|
|
was the first time, as far as I know, anyone described a "complex contagion" model.
|
|
|
|
|
|
(although he didn't use that specific name)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0180802">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Evidence for complex contagion models of social contagion from observational data”</a>
|
|
|
|
|
|
by Sprague & House (2017)
|
|
|
|
|
|
shows that complex contagions do, in fact, exist. (at least, in the social media data they looked at)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Finally,
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0403699.pdf">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Universal behavior in a generalized model of contagion”</a> by Dodds & Watts (2004)
|
|
|
|
|
|
proposes a model that unifies <i>all</i> kinds of contagions:
|
|
|
|
|
|
simple and complex, biological and social!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="possum">
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
“the possum has 13 nipples”
|
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
arranged in a ring of 12 nipples, plus one in the middle
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="groupthink">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
“groupthink”
|
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
This Orwell-inspired phrase was coined by Irving L. Janis in 1971.
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100401033524/http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/macdonald/GroupThink.pdf">
|
|
|
|
|
|
In his original article</a>,
|
|
|
|
|
|
Janis investigates cases of groupthink, lists its causes, and — thankfully —
|
|
|
|
|
|
some possible remedies.
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="social_capital">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
“bonding and bridging social capital”
|
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
These two types of social capital — "bonding" and "bridging" —
|
|
|
|
|
|
were named by Robert Putnam in his insightful 2000 book,
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://bowlingalone.com/">
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bowling Alone</a>. His discovery:
|
|
|
|
|
|
across almost <i>all</i> empircal measures of social connectiveness,
|
|
|
|
|
|
Americans are more alone than ever.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Golly.
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="bridge">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
“bridging social capital has a sweet spot”
|
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://sociology.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/the_strength_of_weak_ties_and_exch_w-gans.pdf">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“The Strength of Weak Ties”</a> by Granovetter (1973)
|
|
|
|
|
|
showed that connections across groups helps spread simple contagions (like information),
|
|
|
|
|
|
but
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/521848?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Complex Contagions and the Weakness of Long Ties”</a> by Centola & Macy (2007)
|
|
|
|
|
|
showed that connections across groups may not help complex contagions,
|
|
|
|
|
|
and it fact, can hurt their spread!
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="small_world">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
“the small world network”
|
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The idea of the "small world" was popularized by
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/2786545">Travers & Milgram's 1969 experiment</a>,
|
|
|
|
|
|
which showed that, on average, any two random people in the United States
|
|
|
|
|
|
were just six friendships apart — "six degrees of separation"!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The small-world network got more mathematical meat on its bones with
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://leonidzhukov.net/hse/2014/socialnetworks/papers/watts-collective_dynamics-nature_1998.pdf">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Collective dynamics of small-world networks”</a> by Watts & Strogatz (1998),
|
|
|
|
|
|
which proposed an algorithm for creating networks
|
|
|
|
|
|
with both low average path length (low degree of separation)
|
|
|
|
|
|
and high clustering (friends have lots of mutual friends) —
|
|
|
|
|
|
that is, a network that hits the sweet spot!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You can also play with
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://worrydream.com/ScientificCommunicationAsSequentialArt/">
|
|
|
|
|
|
the visual, interactive adaptation of that paper</a> by Bret Victor (2011).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="swn_neurons">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
“[small world networks] describe how our neurons are connected”
|
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17079517">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Small-world brain networks”</a> by Bassett & Bullmore (2006).
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="swn_creativity">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
“[small world networks] give rise to collective creativity”
|
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/432782?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Collaboration and Creativity: The Small World Problem”</a> by Uzzi & Spiro (2005).
|
|
|
|
|
|
This paper analyzed the social network of the Broadway scene over time,
|
|
|
|
|
|
and discovered that, yup, the network's most creative when it's a "small world" network!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="swn_social_physics">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
“[small world networks] give rise to collective problem-solving”
|
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
See
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://socialphysics.media.mit.edu/">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Social Physics”</a> by MIT Professor Alex "Sandy" Pentland (2014)
|
|
|
|
|
|
for a data-based approach to collective intelligence.
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="swn_jfk">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
“[small world networks] helped John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war!”
|
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Besides the NASA Challenger explosion, the most notorious example of groupthink
|
|
|
|
|
|
was the Bay of Pigs fiasco.
|
|
|
|
|
|
In 1961, US President John F. Kennedy and his team of advisors thought
|
|
|
|
|
|
— for some reason —
|
|
|
|
|
|
it would be a good idea to secretly invade Cuba and overthrow Fidel Castro.
|
|
|
|
|
|
They failed.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Actually, worse than failed: it led to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962,
|
|
|
|
|
|
<i>the closest the world had ever been to full-scale nuclear war.</i>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yup, JFK really screwed up on that one.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
But, having learnt some hard lessons from the Bay of Pigs fiasco,
|
|
|
|
|
|
JFK re-organized his team to avoid groupthink.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Among many things, he:
|
|
|
|
|
|
1) actively encouraged people to voice criticism,
|
|
|
|
|
|
thus lowering the "contagion threshold" for alternate ideas.
|
|
|
|
|
|
And
|
|
|
|
|
|
2) he broke his team up into sub-groups before reconvening,
|
|
|
|
|
|
which gave their group a "small world network"-like design!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Together, this arrangement allowed for a healthy diversity of opinion,
|
|
|
|
|
|
but without being too fractured — a wisdom of crowds.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
And so, with the same <i>individuals</i> who decided the Bay of Pigs,
|
|
|
|
|
|
but re-arranged <i>collectively</i> to decide on the Cuban Missile Crisis...
|
|
|
|
|
|
JFK's team was able to reach a peaceful agreement with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev.
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Soviets would remove their missiles from Cuba, and in return,
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the US would promise not to invade Cuba again.
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(and also agreed, in secret, to remove the US missiles from Turkey)
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<br><br>
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And that's the story of how all of humanity almost died.
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But a small world network saved the day! Sort of.
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<br><br>
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You can read more about this
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<a target="_blank" href="https://hbr.org/2013/11/how-john-f-kennedy-changed-decision-making">
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on Harvard Business Review</a>,
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or from
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<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100401033524/http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/macdonald/GroupThink.pdf">
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the original article on groupthink</a>.
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</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="three_degrees">
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<h3>
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“we influence [...] our friends' friends' friends!”
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</h3>
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<div>
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Again, from Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's
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wonderful book,
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<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
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Connected</a> (2009).
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</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="flatter">
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<h3>
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“be skeptical of ideas that flatter you”
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</h3>
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<div>
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yes, including the ideas in <i>this</i> explorable explanation.
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</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="sandbox">
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<h3>
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★ Sandbox Mode ★
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</h3>
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<div>
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The keyboard shortcuts (1, 2, space, backspace)
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work in <i>all</i> the puzzles, not just Sandbox Mode!
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Seriously, you can go back to a different chapter,
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and edit the simulation right there.
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In fact, that's how <i>I</i> created all these puzzles. Have fun!
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</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="supporters" hidden=yes large=yes>
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<div>
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To
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<a target="_blank" href="https://www.patreon.com/ncase">my supporters on Patreon</a>:
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I'm deeply grateful.
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Your generosity <i>literally</i> feeds me and pays my rent,
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and grants me the creative freedom to make these weird math/social-science games.
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From the bottom of my heart, thank you!
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</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="playtesters" hidden=yes large=yes>
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<div>
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Thank you, everyone who playtested <i>Crowds</i>
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during its many stages of life!
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<br><br>
|
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<b>The Prototype:</b>
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<br>
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Maria ·
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Monica Srivastava
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<br><br>
|
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<b>The Alpha:</b>
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<br>
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Glen Chiacchieri ·
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Kalli Repzeti ·
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Mali Akmanalp ·
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Toph Tucker
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<br><br>
|
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|
|
<b>The Beta:</b>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alex Dytrych ·
|
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|
|
Amit Patel ·
|
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|
|
Cassandra McClure ·
|
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|
Catherine Ray ·
|
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Josh Comeau ·
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Kayle Sawyer ·
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Matthew Conlen ·
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Srini Kadamati ·
|
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Vanessa Shen ·
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Wick Perry
|
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</div>
|
|
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|
|
</reference>
|
|
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|
|
</span>
|
|
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|
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|
|
<!--
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
And that's it! That's the last of what needed to a TRANSLATE
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Thank you so, so much for doing this again, wow.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Finally, go to "translations.txt" and follow the instructions there,
|
|
|
|
|
|
in order to let this game "know" your translation exists.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-->
|
