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@ -525,155 +525,131 @@ Also, <b></b> bolds a word/phrase, and <i></i> italicizes a word/phrase.
<words id="complex_complex">
Let's bring back "thresholds" and the binge-drinking <icon name="yellow"></icon> example!
When you played with this the first time, people didn't change their behavior.
让我们回忆起“临界值”和酗酒者 <icon name="yellow"></icon> 的例子!当你第一次玩这个游戏时,人们并没有改变他们的行为。
<br><br>
Now, let's simulate what happens if people start drinking
<i>when 50%+ of their friends do!</i>
<b>Before you start the sim, ask yourself what you think <i>should</i> happen.</b>
现在,让我们来模拟<i>当有 50% 以上的朋友开始饮酒时</i>,人们也会开始饮酒,这时会发生什么!
<b>在开始模拟之前,问问自己你认为<i>应该</i> 会发生什么。</b>
<br><br>
<b>Now, run the sim, and see what actually happens! <div class="rarr"></div> </b>
<b>现在,运行模拟,看看实际发生了什么! <div class="rarr"></div> </b>
</words>
<words id="complex_complex_2">
<span style="line-height:1.3em; display:block;">
Unlike our earlier "fake news" <icon name="red"></icon> contagion,
this contagion <icon name="yellow"></icon> does <i>not</i> spread to everyone!
The first few people get "infected", because although they're only exposed to one
binge-drinker, that binge-drinker is 50% of their friends. (yeah, they're lonely)
In contrast, the person near the end of the chain did <i>not</i> get "infected",
because while they were exposed to a binge-drinking friend,
they did not pass the 50%+ threshold.
与我们之前的“假新闻” <icon name="red"></icon> 传播不同,这种传播 <icon name="yellow"></icon>
<i>没有</i> 扩散给每个人!前几个人受到“感染”是因为虽然他们只暴露于一位酗酒者,
但这位酗酒者却占了他们朋友总数的 50%。(是的,他们的朋友很少)
相比之下,接近尾部的人<i>没有</i> 受到“感染”,因为当他们暴露于酗酒者时,并没有达到 50% 这个临界值。
<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
The <i>relative</i> % of "infected" friends matters.
<i>That's</i> the difference between the <b>complex contagion</b> theory<ref id="complex"></ref>,
and our naive it-spreads-like-a-virus <b>simple contagion</b> theory.
(you could say "simple contagions" are just contagions with a "more than 0%" infection threshold)
“受感染”朋友的<i>相对</i> 百分比很重要。
<i>这是</i> <b>复杂传播complex contagion</b>理论 <ref id="complex"></ref>
和我们天真的“它传播的就像病毒”的<b>简单传播simple contagion</b>理论之间的区别。
(你可以说“简单传播”只是一种感染临界值为 0% 的传播)
<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
However, contagions aren't necessarily bad &mdash;
so enough about crowd <i>madness</i>, what about...
<next>...crowd <i>wisdom?</i></next>
然而,传播并不一定是糟糕的 &mdash;
关于群体的<i>愚蠢</i> 已经介绍了很多了,那么...
<next>...群体的<i>智慧?</i> </next>
</span>
</words>
<words id="complex_complex_3">
Here, we have a person <icon name="blue"></icon> who volunteers to... I don't know,
rescue people in hurricanes, or tutor underprivileged kids in their local community, or something cool like that.
Point is, it's a "good" complex contagion.
This time, though, let's say the threshold is only 25% &mdash;
people are willing to volunteer, but only if 25% or more of their friends do so, too.
Hey, goodwill needs a bit of social encouragement.
现在,我们有一个小蓝人 <icon name="blue"></icon> 立志于...救民于天灾,在贫困地区支教,或者一些类似于拯救世界这样的事。
关键是,这是一个“好”的传播。但是,这一次我们假设临界值只有 25% &mdash;
只要有 25% 以上的朋友这样做,人们也会愿意做这样的志愿者。
嗨,善意需要一些社会的鼓励。
<br><br>
<b>&larr; Get everyone "infected" with the good vibes!</b>
<b>&larr; 让每个人被好的氛围“感染”!</b>
</words>
<words id="complex_complex_3_end">
<span style="line-height:1.3em; display:block;">
<b>NOTE:</b> Volunteering is just <i>one</i> of many complex contagions!
Others include: voter turnout, lifestyle habits,
challenging your beliefs,
taking time to understand a issue deeply &mdash; anything
that needs more than one "exposure".
Complex contagions aren't <i>necessarily</i> wise,
but being wise is a complex contagion.
<b>注意:</b>志愿行为只是众多复杂传播中的其中<i></i> 种!
其他还包括:选民投票率,生活习惯,挑战你的信仰,花时间深入了解一个问题 &mdash; 任何需要超过一次被“暴露”的事情。
复杂传播<i>不一定</i> 是理智的,但理智的传播一定是复杂传播。
<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
(So what's a real-life <i>simple</i> contagion?
Usually bits of trivia, like, "the possum has 13 nipples"<ref id="possum"></ref>)
(那么什么是现实生活中的<i>简单</i> 传播?通常是一些花边新闻,比如“负鼠有 13 个乳头”<ref id="possum"></ref>
<bon id="contagions"></bon>
Now, to <i>really</i> show the power and weirdness of complex contagions, let's revisit...
现在,为了<i>真正</i> 展现复杂传播的力量和古怪,让我们重温...
<next>...an earlier puzzle <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
<next>...之前的谜题 <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
</span>
</words>
<words id="complex_cascade">
Remember this? This time, with a <i>complex</i> contagion <icon name="blue"></icon>, it'll be a bit tougher...
还记得这个吗?这次,伴随着<i>复杂</i> 传播 <icon name="blue"></icon>,它会变得更加艰难。
<br>
<b>Try to "infect" everyone with complex wisdom! <div class="darr"></div></b>
<b>试着在复杂传播下“感染”每一个人!<div class="darr"></div> </b>
</words>
<words id="complex_cascade_feel_free">
(feel free to just hit 'start' and <i>try</i> as many solutions as you want)
(随意点击‘开始’,如你所想的<i>尝试</i> 多种解法)
</words>
<words id="complex_cascade_end">
<next wiggle>HOT DANG <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
<next wiggle>棒极了 <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
</words>
<words id="complex_post_cascade">
Now, you may think that you just need to keep adding connections to spread any contagion,
"complex" or "simple", good or bad, wise or mad.
But is that really so? Well, let's revisit...
现在,你可能会认为你只需要不断增加连接就可以扩散任何“复杂”或“简单”,好或坏,理智或疯狂的传播。
但是,真的如此吗?好的,让我们重温...
</words>
<words id="complex_post_cascade_end">
<next wiggle>...another earlier puzzle <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
<next wiggle>...另一个之前的谜题 <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
</words>
<words id="complex_prevent">
If you hit "start" below, the complex contagion <icon name="blue"></icon> will just spread to everyone.
No surprise there.
But now, let's do the <i>opposite</i> of everything we've done before:
<b>draw a network to <i>prevent</i> the contagion from spreading to everyone! <div class="darr"></div></b>
如果你点击了下面的“开始”,复杂传播 <icon name="blue"></icon> 会扩散给每一个人。正如你所想,并没有什么惊喜。
但是现在,让我们做与之前所做的一切<i>相反</i> 的事情:<b>绘制网络来<i>阻止</i> 传播!<div class="darr"></div></b>
</words>
<words id="complex_prevent_2">
You see?
While more connections will always help the spread of <i>simple</i> ideas,
<b>more connections can hurt the spread of <i>complex</i> ideas!</b>
(makes you wonder about the internet, hm?)
And this isn't just a theoretical problem. This can be a matter of life...
你看见了吧?
虽然更多的连接会帮助扩散<i>简单的</i> 思想,
<b>但更多的连接也会阻止<i>复杂</i> 思想的扩散!</b>
(是不是让你想起了互联网,嗯哼?)
这不仅仅是一个理论上的问题。 这可能是...
</words>
<words id="complex_prevent_end">
<next wiggle>...or death. <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
<next wiggle>...生死攸关的 <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
</words>
<words id="complex_groupthink">
The people at NASA were smart cookies.
I mean, they'd used Newton's theories to get us to the moon.
Anyway, long story short, in 1986,
<i>despite warnings from the engineers</i>,
they launched the <i>Challenger</i>,
which blew up and killed 7 people.
The immediate cause:
it was too cold that morning.
美国航空航天局NASA的人员都是聪明蛋。 我的意思是,他们用牛顿的理论让我们登上了月球。
无论如何再次长话短说1986 年,<i>尽管工程师发出了警告</i>,他们仍然发射了<i>挑战者号</i>
结果是,爆炸导致机上 7 名机组人员无一幸免。直接原因:早上太冷了。
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
The less immediate cause: the managers ignored the engineers' warnings.
Why? Because of <b>groupthink</b><ref id="groupthink"></ref>.
When a group is <i>too</i> closely knit, (as they tend to be at the top of institutions)
they become resistant to complex ideas that challenge their beliefs or ego.
相对间接的原因:管理人员忽视了工程师的警告。
为什么? 因为 <b>团体迷思</b> <ref id="groupthink"></ref>
当一个团队<i>过于</i> 紧密,(因为他们往往是机构的顶端)他们会抵制挑战自己信仰或自尊的复杂思想。
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
So, that's how institutions can fall to crowd madness.
But how can we "design" for crowd <i>wisdom?</i>
In short, two words:
总之,这就是机构如何陷入了群体的愚蠢与疯狂。那么我们怎样“设计”才能使群体富有<i>智慧</i> 呢? 简而言之,两个词:
<next>Bonding &amp; Bridging <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
<next>内聚 &amp; 桥接 <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
</words>