section 3
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@ -525,155 +525,131 @@ Also, <b></b> bolds a word/phrase, and <i></i> italicizes a word/phrase.
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<words id="complex_complex">
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Let's bring back "thresholds" and the binge-drinking <icon name="yellow"></icon> example!
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When you played with this the first time, people didn't change their behavior.
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让我们回忆起“临界值”和酗酒者 <icon name="yellow"></icon> 的例子!当你第一次玩这个游戏时,人们并没有改变他们的行为。
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<br><br>
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Now, let's simulate what happens if people start drinking
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<i>when 50%+ of their friends do!</i>
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<b>Before you start the sim, ask yourself what you think <i>should</i> happen.</b>
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现在,让我们来模拟<i>当有 50% 以上的朋友开始饮酒时</i>,人们也会开始饮酒,这时会发生什么!
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<b>在开始模拟之前,问问自己你认为<i>应该</i> 会发生什么。</b>
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<br><br>
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<b>Now, run the sim, and see what actually happens! <div class="rarr"></div> </b>
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<b>现在,运行模拟,看看实际发生了什么! <div class="rarr"></div> </b>
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</words>
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<words id="complex_complex_2">
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<span style="line-height:1.3em; display:block;">
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Unlike our earlier "fake news" <icon name="red"></icon> contagion,
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this contagion <icon name="yellow"></icon> does <i>not</i> spread to everyone!
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The first few people get "infected", because although they're only exposed to one
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binge-drinker, that binge-drinker is 50% of their friends. (yeah, they're lonely)
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In contrast, the person near the end of the chain did <i>not</i> get "infected",
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because while they were exposed to a binge-drinking friend,
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they did not pass the 50%+ threshold.
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与我们之前的“假新闻” <icon name="red"></icon> 传播不同,这种传播 <icon name="yellow"></icon>
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并<i>没有</i> 扩散给每个人!前几个人受到“感染”是因为虽然他们只暴露于一位酗酒者,
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但这位酗酒者却占了他们朋友总数的 50%。(是的,他们的朋友很少)
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相比之下,接近尾部的人<i>没有</i> 受到“感染”,因为当他们暴露于酗酒者时,并没有达到 50% 这个临界值。
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<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
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The <i>relative</i> % of "infected" friends matters.
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<i>That's</i> the difference between the <b>complex contagion</b> theory<ref id="complex"></ref>,
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and our naive it-spreads-like-a-virus <b>simple contagion</b> theory.
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(you could say "simple contagions" are just contagions with a "more than 0%" infection threshold)
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“受感染”朋友的<i>相对</i> 百分比很重要。
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<i>这是</i> <b>复杂传播(complex contagion)</b>理论 <ref id="complex"></ref>
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和我们天真的“它传播的就像病毒”的<b>简单传播(simple contagion)</b>理论之间的区别。
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(你可以说“简单传播”只是一种感染临界值为 0% 的传播)
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<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
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However, contagions aren't necessarily bad —
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so enough about crowd <i>madness</i>, what about...
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<next>...crowd <i>wisdom?</i></next>
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然而,传播并不一定是糟糕的 —
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关于群体的<i>愚蠢</i> 已经介绍了很多了,那么...
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<next>...群体的<i>智慧?</i> </next>
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</span>
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</words>
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<words id="complex_complex_3">
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Here, we have a person <icon name="blue"></icon> who volunteers to... I don't know,
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rescue people in hurricanes, or tutor underprivileged kids in their local community, or something cool like that.
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Point is, it's a "good" complex contagion.
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This time, though, let's say the threshold is only 25% —
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people are willing to volunteer, but only if 25% or more of their friends do so, too.
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Hey, goodwill needs a bit of social encouragement.
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现在,我们有一个小蓝人 <icon name="blue"></icon> 立志于...救民于天灾,在贫困地区支教,或者一些类似于拯救世界这样的事。
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关键是,这是一个“好”的传播。但是,这一次我们假设临界值只有 25% —
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只要有 25% 以上的朋友这样做,人们也会愿意做这样的志愿者。
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嗨,善意需要一些社会的鼓励。
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<br><br>
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<b>← Get everyone "infected" with the good vibes!</b>
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<b>← 让每个人被好的氛围“感染”!</b>
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</words>
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<words id="complex_complex_3_end">
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<span style="line-height:1.3em; display:block;">
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<b>NOTE:</b> Volunteering is just <i>one</i> of many complex contagions!
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Others include: voter turnout, lifestyle habits,
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challenging your beliefs,
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taking time to understand a issue deeply — anything
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that needs more than one "exposure".
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Complex contagions aren't <i>necessarily</i> wise,
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but being wise is a complex contagion.
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<b>注意:</b>志愿行为只是众多复杂传播中的其中<i>一</i> 种!
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其他还包括:选民投票率,生活习惯,挑战你的信仰,花时间深入了解一个问题 — 任何需要超过一次被“暴露”的事情。
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复杂传播<i>不一定</i> 是理智的,但理智的传播一定是复杂传播。
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<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
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(So what's a real-life <i>simple</i> contagion?
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Usually bits of trivia, like, "the possum has 13 nipples"<ref id="possum"></ref>)
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(那么什么是现实生活中的<i>简单</i> 传播?通常是一些花边新闻,比如“负鼠有 13 个乳头”<ref id="possum"></ref>)
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<bon id="contagions"></bon>
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Now, to <i>really</i> show the power and weirdness of complex contagions, let's revisit...
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现在,为了<i>真正</i> 展现复杂传播的力量和古怪,让我们重温...
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<next>...an earlier puzzle <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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<next>...之前的谜题 <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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</span>
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</words>
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<words id="complex_cascade">
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Remember this? This time, with a <i>complex</i> contagion <icon name="blue"></icon>, it'll be a bit tougher...
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还记得这个吗?这次,伴随着<i>复杂</i> 传播 <icon name="blue"></icon>,它会变得更加艰难。
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<br>
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<b>Try to "infect" everyone with complex wisdom! <div class="darr"></div></b>
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<b>试着在复杂传播下“感染”每一个人!<div class="darr"></div> </b>
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</words>
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<words id="complex_cascade_feel_free">
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(feel free to just hit 'start' and <i>try</i> as many solutions as you want)
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(随意点击‘开始’,如你所想的<i>尝试</i> 多种解法)
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</words>
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<words id="complex_cascade_end">
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<next wiggle>HOT DANG <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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<next wiggle>棒极了 <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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</words>
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<words id="complex_post_cascade">
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Now, you may think that you just need to keep adding connections to spread any contagion,
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"complex" or "simple", good or bad, wise or mad.
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But is that really so? Well, let's revisit...
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现在,你可能会认为你只需要不断增加连接就可以扩散任何“复杂”或“简单”,好或坏,理智或疯狂的传播。
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但是,真的如此吗?好的,让我们重温...
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</words>
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<words id="complex_post_cascade_end">
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<next wiggle>...another earlier puzzle <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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<next wiggle>...另一个之前的谜题 <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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</words>
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<words id="complex_prevent">
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If you hit "start" below, the complex contagion <icon name="blue"></icon> will just spread to everyone.
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No surprise there.
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But now, let's do the <i>opposite</i> of everything we've done before:
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<b>draw a network to <i>prevent</i> the contagion from spreading to everyone! <div class="darr"></div></b>
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如果你点击了下面的“开始”,复杂传播 <icon name="blue"></icon> 会扩散给每一个人。正如你所想,并没有什么惊喜。
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但是现在,让我们做与之前所做的一切<i>相反</i> 的事情:<b>绘制网络来<i>阻止</i> 传播!<div class="darr"></div></b>
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</words>
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<words id="complex_prevent_2">
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You see?
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While more connections will always help the spread of <i>simple</i> ideas,
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<b>more connections can hurt the spread of <i>complex</i> ideas!</b>
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(makes you wonder about the internet, hm?)
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And this isn't just a theoretical problem. This can be a matter of life...
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你看见了吧?
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虽然更多的连接会帮助扩散<i>简单的</i> 思想,
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<b>但更多的连接也会阻止<i>复杂</i> 思想的扩散!</b>
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(是不是让你想起了互联网,嗯哼?)
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这不仅仅是一个理论上的问题。 这可能是...
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</words>
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<words id="complex_prevent_end">
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<next wiggle>...or death. <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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<next wiggle>...生死攸关的 <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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</words>
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<words id="complex_groupthink">
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The people at NASA were smart cookies.
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I mean, they'd used Newton's theories to get us to the moon.
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Anyway, long story short, in 1986,
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<i>despite warnings from the engineers</i>,
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they launched the <i>Challenger</i>,
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which blew up and killed 7 people.
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The immediate cause:
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it was too cold that morning.
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美国航空航天局(NASA)的人员都是聪明蛋。 我的意思是,他们用牛顿的理论让我们登上了月球。
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无论如何,再次长话短说,1986 年,<i>尽管工程师发出了警告</i>,他们仍然发射了<i>挑战者号</i>,
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结果是,爆炸导致机上 7 名机组人员无一幸免。直接原因:早上太冷了。
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<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
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The less immediate cause: the managers ignored the engineers' warnings.
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Why? Because of <b>groupthink</b><ref id="groupthink"></ref>.
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When a group is <i>too</i> closely knit, (as they tend to be at the top of institutions)
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they become resistant to complex ideas that challenge their beliefs or ego.
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相对间接的原因:管理人员忽视了工程师的警告。
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为什么? 因为 <b>团体迷思</b> <ref id="groupthink"></ref>。
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当一个团队<i>过于</i> 紧密,(因为他们往往是机构的顶端)他们会抵制挑战自己信仰或自尊的复杂思想。
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<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
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So, that's how institutions can fall to crowd madness.
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But how can we "design" for crowd <i>wisdom?</i>
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In short, two words:
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总之,这就是机构如何陷入了群体的愚蠢与疯狂。那么我们怎样“设计”才能使群体富有<i>智慧</i> 呢? 简而言之,两个词:
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<next>Bonding & Bridging <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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<next>内聚 & 桥接 <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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</words>
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