2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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THE WISDOM AND/OR MADNESS OF CROWDS
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by Nicky Case | apr 2018
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- - - - - - - - - - -
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FAN TRANSLATION GUIDE:
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https://github.com/ncase/crowds#how-to-translate-this-thing
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Hello fan-translaters! Thank you so, so much for your help.
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I hope you know what you've gotten yourself into.
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There's about 3600+ WORDS to translate, including
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the Bonus Boxes and References.
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To make things easier (or less painful, anyway) I've marked
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what needs to be translated and how with big "TRANSLATE" comments.
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Ctrl+F for "TRANSLATE" in uppercase to see what needs to be translated!
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BUT BEFORE YOU TRANSLATE ANYTHING, DO THIS:
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1) Look up the two-letter code of the language you're translating to:
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ISO_639-1_codes
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2) *COPY* index.html, and name the copy [two-letter-code].html
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For example: de.html, ar.html, zh.html, etc...
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3) Translate *THAT* page. Do NOT modify the original index.html!
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And once you're done, go to "translations.txt", and follow the
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instructions there to let this game "know" your translation exists.
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Good luck, and thanks again!
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<3,
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~ Nicky Case
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-->
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html>
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<head>
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<!-- Meta Info -->
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<title>La saggezza e la follia delle masse</title> <!-- <title>(TRANSLATED)</title> -->
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<meta name="description" content="una guida interattiva alle reti sociali"/> <!-- content="(TRANSLATED)" -->
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<meta content="text/html;charset=utf-8" http-equiv="Content-Type">
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<meta content="utf-8" http-equiv="encoding">
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<meta charset="utf-8">
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<link rel="icon" type="image/png" href="favicon.png">
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<!-- Sharing -->
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<meta itemprop="name" content="La saggezza e la follia delle masse"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATED)" -->
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<meta itemprop="description" content="una guida interattiva alle reti sociali"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATED)" -->
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<meta itemprop="image" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/social/thumb.png">
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<meta name="twitter:title" content="La saggezza e la follia delle masse"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATED)" -->
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<meta name="twitter:description" content="una guida interattiva alle reti sociali"> <!-- content="(TTRANSLATED)" -->
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<meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image">
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<meta name="twitter:site" content="@ncasenmare">
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<meta name="twitter:creator" content="@ncasenmare">
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<meta name="twitter:image" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/social/thumb.png">
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<meta property="og:title" content="La saggezza e la follia delle masse"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATED)" -->
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<meta property="og:description" content="una guida interattiva alle reti sociali"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATED)" -->
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<meta property="og:type" content="website">
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<meta property="og:url" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/">
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<meta property="og:image" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/social/thumb.png">
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<!-- Styles -->
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<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="css/index.css?v=3">
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</head>
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<body>
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<!-- THE SLIDESHOW -->
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<div id="container">
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<!-- Simulation(s) in background -->
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<div id="simulations_container">
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<div id="simulations"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Slideshow: words & buttons -->
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<div id="slideshow_container">
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<div id="slideshow"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Scratch Transition -->
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<canvas id="scratch" width="711" height="400"></canvas>
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<!-- Skip -->
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<div id="skip">skip ></div> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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<!-- Modal -->
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<div id="modal_container">
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<div id="modal_bg"></div>
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<div id="modal">
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<div id="modal_close">⨯</div>
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<div id="modal_content_container">
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<div id="modal_content"></div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Navigation: Audio, Contents, Share, Translations -->
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<div id="navigation_container">
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<div id="sound" mute="no">
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<div id="sound_icon"></div>
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<span id="sound_on">ON</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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<span id="sound_off">OFF</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</div>
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<div id="sharing">
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<a id="fb" target="_blank" href="TODO"></a>
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<a id="tw" target="_blank" href="TODO"></a>
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<a id="em" target="_blank" href="TODO"></a>
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<span id="share_title">
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La saggezza e la follia delle masse <!-- TRANSLATED -->
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</span>
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<span id="share_desc">
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<!-- TRANSLATOR: keep this on ONE LINE or the social sharing will break! -->
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Perché i gruppi di persone agiscono in modo intelligente, stupido, gentile, crudele? Una guida interattiva alle reti sociali: <!-- TRANSLATED -->
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</span>
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</div>
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<div id="navigation">
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<!-- The chapters -->
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<!-- TRANSLATED -->
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<div chapter="Introduction">
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<span>0</span>
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<span>0. Introduzione</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Networks">
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<span>1</span>
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<span>1. Relazioni</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Simple">
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<span>2</span>
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<span>2. Contagi</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Complex">
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<span>3</span>
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<span>3. Contagi Complessi</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="BB">
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<span>4</span>
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2018-04-28 14:08:51 +00:00
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<span>4. Legami & Ponti</span> <!-- note: & is html for the "and" sign -->
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</div>
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<div chapter="SmallWorld">
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<span>5</span>
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<span>5. È un Piccolo Mondo</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Conclusion">
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<span>6</span>
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<span>6. In Conclusione...</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Credits">
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<span>7</span>
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<span>7. Crediti</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Sandbox">
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<span>★</span>
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<span>★ Sandbox Mode! ★</span> <!-- IT'S OK IN ENGLISH -->
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</div>
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<!-- A divider -->
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<span class="nav_divider"></span>
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<!-- Bonus Notes & References -->
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<div modal="bonus">
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<span>?</span>
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<span>Bonus!</span> <!-- TRANSLATED -->
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</div>
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<div modal="references">
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<span style="margin-top: 7px; font-size: 35px;">*</span>
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<span>Link & Riferimenti</span> <!-- TRANSLATED -->
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</div>
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<div modal="translations">
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<span style="margin-top:5px; position:relative;"><span style="
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position: absolute;
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top: -8px;
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left: 6px;
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">A</span><span style="
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position: absolute;
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font-size: 16px;
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top: -1px;
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left: 16px;
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">あ</span></span>
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<span>Traduzioni</span> <!-- TRANSLATED -->
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</div>
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<!-- The hover bubble -->
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<span id="nav_bubble"></span>
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</div>
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<div id="translations"></div>
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<div id="social"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- The Pencil -->
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<div id="pencil_container">
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<canvas id="pencil"></canvas>
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</div>
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<!-- Preloader -->
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<div id="pre_preloader">
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<div>caricamento...</div> <!-- TRANSLATED -->
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</div>
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</body>
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</html>
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<!-- - - - - -->
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<!-- SCRIPTS -->
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<!-- - - - - -->
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<script src="js/lib/helpers.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/minpubsub.src.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/howler.min.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/Key.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/Mouse.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/Sprite.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Slideshow.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Pencil.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Boxes.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Scratch.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Navigation.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/SimUI.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/SandboxUI.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Modal.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Preloader.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Translations.js?v=2"></script>
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<script src="js/sim/Peep.js?v=2"></script>
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<script src="js/sim/Connection.js"></script>
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<script src="js/sim/ConnectorCutter.js"></script>
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<script src="js/sim/Simulations.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/A_Preloader.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/B_Introduction.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/C_Networks.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/D_Simple_Contagion.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/E_Complex_Contagion.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/F_Bonding_And_Bridging.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/G_Small_World.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/H_Conclusion.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/I_Credits.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/J_Sandbox.js?v=2"></script>
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<script src="js/main.js"></script>
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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<!-- THE SLIDESHOW'S WORDS -->
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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<!--
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This is the bulk of what you need to TRANSLATE!
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Translate just the text that's within the <tag></tags>
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If you're using a code editor (like Sublime Text https://www.sublimetext.com/),
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it should automatically highlight what the text is (usually in white).
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-->
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<span style="display:none">
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<!-- Preloader -->
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<words id="preloader_title">
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<div style="font-size: 30px;">
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<span style="top:-10px;">la</span>
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<br>
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<span style="font-size: 60px;letter-spacing: 4px;">la SAGGEZZA</span>
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<span style="position:relative;top: -10px;">e la</span>
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<span style="font-size: 60px;">FOLLIA</span>
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<br>
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<span style="position: relative;">delle</span>
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<br>
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<span style="font-size: 100px;line-height: 80px;position: relative;display:block;">MASSE</span>
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</div>
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<div style="color:#999">
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<!-- TRANSLATE note: comment out the line below...
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playing time: 30 min • by nicky case, april 2018-->
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<!-- ...and UN-comment + TRANSLATE this line! -->
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di nicky case • tradotto da Michele Fenu • <a href='/'>original in English</a>
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</div>
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</words>
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<words id="preloader_button">
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<next></next>
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</words>
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<words id="preloader_loading">
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caricamento...
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</words>
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<words id="preloader_play">
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Gioca! <div class="rarr"></div>
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</words>
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<!-- Introduction -->
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<!--
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TRANSLATE note: to make the text stay in a circle, I added lots of <br> breaks.
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You may have to re-arrange the <br>'s in order to do your translation.
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It shouldn't look too bad if they're slightly off, though!
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Also, <b></b> bolds a word/phrase, and <i></i> italicizes a word/phrase.
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-->
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<words id="intro">
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<br><br>
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Sir Isaac Newton era molto probabilmente un
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<br>
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ragazzo sveglio. Voglio dire, dopo aver inventato il calcolo
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<br>
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e la teoria della gravità, sarebbe dovuto essere in grado di fare
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<br>
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qualche piccolo investimento finanziario, no? Beh, facendola breve,
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<br>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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perse l'equivalente di 4.600.000 dollari di oggi nella frenesia degli
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<br>
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investimenti conosciuta come la South Sea Bubble del 1720.
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<br><br>
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Come poi Newton stesso disse: <i>“Posso calcolare il movimento
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<br>
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dei corpi celesti, ma non la follia della gente.”</i>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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<br><br>
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<next>Già, uno schifo per lui <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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</words>
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<words id="intro_2">
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<div style="height:0.5em"></div>
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Certo, quella non fu l'unica
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<br>
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volta che mercati, istituzioni, o interi
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<br>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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stati andarono in tilt a causa della <i>follia</i> delle masse.
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<br>
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Eppure, proprio mentre stai perdendo speranza nell'umanità,
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<br>
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vedi persone che si coordinano per salvare altre persone nei
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<br>
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terremoti, comunità che creano soluzioni ai problemi reali, persone
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<br>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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che combattono per un mondo migliore. Ah, la <i>saggezza</i> delle masse!
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
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<b>Ma <i>perché</i> le masse diventano folli, o sagge?</b> Nessuna teoria
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<br>
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può spiegare tutto, ma penso che un nuovo campo di studi, la
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<br>
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<b>scienza delle reti</b>, possa guidarci! L'idea alla base è questa: per
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<br>
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capire le masse, non dobbiamo guardare ai <i>singoli
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<br>
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individui</i>, ma alle...
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<next>...loro <i>relazioni.</i> <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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</words>
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<!-- Networks -->
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<words id="networks_tutorial_start">
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<b>Disegnamo una rete!</b>
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Ogni connessione rappresenta l'amicizia tra due persone:
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</words>
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<words id="networks_tutorial_connect">
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disegna per connettere
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</words>
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<words id="networks_tutorial_disconnect">
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gratta per disconnettere
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</words>
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<words id="networks_tutorial_end">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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sentiti libero di giocare un po' con la rete, quando sei pronto...
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<next wiggle>possiamo continuare <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_threshold">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Ora, al di là delle belle figure che possiamo disegnare, le reti sociali sono molto di più.
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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Le persone <i>osservano</i> le relazioni per capire il mondo.
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Per esempio, per trovare <b>la percentuale dei propri amici</b> che sono,
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diciamo, bevitori cronici. <icon name="yellow"></icon>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_threshold_instruction">
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<b>Aggiungi o rimuovi connessioni, e vedi cosa succede! <div class="rarr"></div> </b>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_threshold_end">
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<next>ottimo, ho capito</next>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_pre_puzzle">
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Tuttavia, le reti possono <i>ingannare</i> le persone.
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Così come la Terra può sembrarci piatta perché ci camminiamo sopra,
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così possiamo farci idee sbagliate sulla società, perché ci viviamo <i>dentro</i>.
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="optional_reading">
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<div style="position:absolute; top:5px;">
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<i>opzionale</i> articolo bonus! ↑
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</div>
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<div style="position:absolute; left:216px; top:10px;">
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↓ link e riferimenti
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</div>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_pre_puzzle_2">
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<bon id="books"></bon>
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<br>
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Per esempio, uno studio del 1991<ref id="drunk"></ref> mostrò che
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2018-04-28 14:08:51 +00:00
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“tutti gli studenti hanno riferito che i propri amici bevono potenzialmente più di quanto facciano loro stessi.”
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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Ma questo sembrerebbe impossibile!
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Come può essere?
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Bene, stai per scoprire la risposta da solo, disegnando una rete.
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È il momento di...
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<next>INGANNARE TUTTI <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_puzzle">
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<b style="font-size:2em">PUZZLE TIME!</b>
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<br>
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Inganna <i>tutti</i> e fagli credere
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che la maggior parte dei propri amici (più del 50%) sono bevitori seriali <icon name="yellow"></icon>
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(anche se i bevitori alcolici sono in inferiorità numerica di 2 a 1!)
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</words>
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<words id="networks_puzzle_metric">
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<b>INGANNATI:</b>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_puzzle_metric_2">
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su 9 persone
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</words>
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<words id="networks_puzzle_end">
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Congratulazioni! Hai manipolato un gruppo di studenti per fargli credere
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nella prevalenza di un'abitudine sociale incredibilmente malsana! Bene così!
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<next wiggle>...ehm. Grazie?</next>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_post_puzzle">
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Ciò che hai appena creato è chiamato L'Illusione della Maggioranza<ref id="majority"></ref>,
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che spiega inoltre perché le persone credano che le proprie idee politiche rappresentino quelle della maggioranza della popolazione,
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o perché l'estremismo sembra più comune di quanto non sia in realtà...
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<i>Follia.</i>
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<bon id="connections"></bon>
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Ma le persone non solo <i>osservano</i> le idee e i comportamenti altrui,
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ma li <i>copiano</i> attivamente.
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Perciò adesso, diamo uno sguardo a qualcosa che gli scienziati chiamano...
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<next>“Contagi!” <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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</words>
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<!-- Simple Contagions -->
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<words id="simple_simple">
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2018-04-28 14:08:51 +00:00
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<i>Mettiamo un attimo da parte la questione della maggioranza.</i>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Qui sotto abbiamo una persona <icon name="red"></icon> con delle informazioni.
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2018-04-28 14:08:51 +00:00
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Alcune <i>cattive</i> informazioni. "Fake news", se vogliamo dirla come si dice oggi.
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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E ogni giorno, questa persona le diffonde, come virus, ai suoi amici.
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E loro le diffondono ai <i>loro</i> amici. E così via.
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<br>
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<b>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Avvia la simulazione! <div class="darr"></div>
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(nota: non puoi disegnare <i>mentre</i> gira la simulazione)
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</b>
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</words>
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<words id="simple_simple_2">
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2018-04-28 14:08:51 +00:00
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Nota: nonostante la cattiva accezione del termine, i "contagi" possono essere positivi o negativi (o neutrali o ambigui).
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Ci sono forti evidenze statistiche <ref id="contagion"></ref> che
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l'attitudine a fumare, lo stato di salute, la felicità, l'orientamento politico, e la cooperazione
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sono tutti "contagiosi" --
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e c'è anche qualche evidenza che anche i suicidi <ref id="suicides"></ref> e le sparatorie di massa<ref id="shootings"></ref> lo siano.
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="simple_simple_end">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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<next wiggle>beh, tutto ciò è deprimente <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="simple_cascade">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Certo che lo è.
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Ad ogni modo, di nuovo, <b>PUZZLE TIME!</b>
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<br>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Disegna una rete & avvia la simulazione,
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in modo che <i>tutti</i> vengano infettati dal "contagio".
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<br>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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(nuova regola: non puoi spezzare le connessioni più <i>grosse</i>)
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="simple_cascade_end">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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<next wiggle>faaaantastico <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="simple_post_cascade">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Questa diffusione folle e incontrollata è chiamata <b>"cascata di informazioni"</b>.
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Newton cadde proprio in questa situazione nel 1720.
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Le istituzioni finanziarie mondiali caddero nella stessa situazione nel 2008.<ref id="subprime"></ref> Ricordate?
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<br><br>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Tuttavia: <i>questa simulazione è sbagliata.</i>
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La maggior parte delle idee <i>non</i> si diffondono come virus.
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Per accettare molte credenze e comportamenti, bisogna essere "esposti" al contagio più di una volta per essere "infettati".
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Perciò, gli scienziati delle reti hanno inventato un nuovo e migliore modo
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per descrivere come si diffondolo le idee, e lo hanno chiamato...
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<next wiggle>“Contagi <i>Complessi</i>!” <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<!-- Complex Contagions -->
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<words id="complex_complex">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Riprendiamo in mano il concetto della soglia del 50% e dei bevitori seriali! <icon name="yellow"></icon>
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La prima volta che ci abbiamo giocato, le persone non cambiavano il loro comportamento.
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<br><br>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Adesso, simuliamo cosa succede se le persone iniziano a bere
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<i>quando oltre il 50% dei loro amici lo fa!</i>
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<b>Prima di avviare la simulazione, chiediti cosa <i>pensi</i> che accadrà.</b>
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<br><br>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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<b>Ora, avvia la simulazione, e guarda cosa succede veramente! <div class="rarr"></div> </b>
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_complex_2">
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<span style="line-height:1.3em; display:block;">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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A differenza del contagio delle "fake news" <icon name="red"></icon>,
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questo contagio <icon name="yellow"></icon> <i>non</i> si diffonde verso tutti!
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Le prime persone vengono "infettate", perché anche se sono esposte a un solo bevitore,
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2018-04-28 14:08:51 +00:00
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quel bevitore rappresenta il 50% dei propri amici (sì, sono molto soli).
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Al contrario, la persone vicine alla fine della catena <i>non</i> vengono "infettate",
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perché anche se sono esposte ad un amico bevitore,
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questo non rappresenta la maggioranza dei propri amici.
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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La percentuale <i>relativa</i> di amici "infettati" conta.
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2018-04-28 14:08:51 +00:00
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<i>Questa è</i> la differenza tra la teoria del <b>contagio complesso</b> <ref id="complex"></ref>,
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e la nostra teoria si-diffonde-come-un-virus. Ovvero il <b>contagio semplice</b>.
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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(potremmo dire che i "contagi semplici" sono contagi complessi con una soglia di contagio "oltre lo 0%")
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Tuttavia, i contagi non sono necessariamente negativi —
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abbiamo detto abbastanza sulla <i>follia</i> delle masse, cosa possiamo dire sulla...
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<next>...<i>saggezza</i>?</next>
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</span>
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</words>
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<words id="complex_complex_3">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Qui, abbiamo una persona <icon name="blue"></icon> che fa volontariato in... non so,
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recupera persone nelle alluvioni, o aiuta i disabili nella propria scuola, o qualcos'altro.
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Il punto è, che si tratta di un contagio complesso "positivo".
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Questa volta, però, supponiamo che la soglia sia solo del 25% —
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le persone sono propense a fare volontariato, ma solo se il 25% o più dei propri amici lo fa.
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Hey, la buona volontà richiede un certo incoraggiamento sociale!
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<br><br>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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<b>← "Infetta" tutti con le buone azioni!</b>
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_complex_3_end">
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<span style="line-height:1.3em; display:block;">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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<b>NOTA:</b> Il volontariato è solo <i>uno</i> di molti contagi complessi!
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Altri includono: partecipazione al voto, abitudini di vita,
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mettersi in discussione,
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prendersi tempo per approfondire un problema — qualsiasi cosa
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che richieda più di una "esposizione".
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2018-04-28 14:08:51 +00:00
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I contagi complessi non sono <i>necessariamente</i> infusi di saggezza,
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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ma diffondere saggezza è un contagio complesso.
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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(Quindi cos'è un contagio <i>semplice</i> nel mondo reale?
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Di solito, curiosità enciclopediche. Ad esempio sapete che l'opossum ha 13 capezzoli?<ref id="possum"></ref>)
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<bon id="contagions"></bon>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Ora, per mostrare la <i>reale</i> importanza e stranezza dei contagi complessi, dobbiamo riprendere...
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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<next>...un gioco precedente <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</span>
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</words>
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<words id="complex_cascade">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Ve lo ricordate? Questa volta, con un contagio <i>complesso</i> <icon name="blue"></icon>, sarà un po' più dura...
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<br>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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<b>Cerca di "infettare" tutti con della saggezza complessa! <div class="darr"></div></b>
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_cascade_feel_free">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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(sentiti libero di cliccare su 'avvia' e <i>provare</i> tutte le soluzioni che vuoi)
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_cascade_end">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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<next wiggle>WOW <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_post_cascade">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Ora, potreste pensare che basti aggiungere relazioni per diffondere qualsiasi tipo di contagio,
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2018-04-28 14:08:51 +00:00
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"complesso" o "semplice", positivo o negativo, saggio o folle.
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Ma è davvero così? Beh, rivediamo...
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_post_cascade_end">
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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<next wiggle>...un altro vecchio esempio <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_prevent">
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Se clicchi su "avvia", il contagio complesso <icon name="blue"></icon> si diffonderà verso tutti.
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Nessuna sorpresa qui.
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Ma ora, proviamo a fare l'<i>opposto</i> di quanto abbiamo fatto finora:
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<b>disegna una rete che <i>impedisca</i> al contagio di diffondersi verso tutti! <div class="darr"></div></b>
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_prevent_2">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Vedete?
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Mentre molte connessioni aiutano la diffusione delle idee <i>semplici</i>,
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<b>possono allo stesso tempo impedire la diffusione di idee <i>complesse</i> !</b>
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(questo ci fa meravigliare di internet, no?)
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E non si tratta solo di un problema teorico. Può essere questione di vita...
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_prevent_end">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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<next wiggle>...o di morte. <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="complex_groupthink">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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È lecito pensare che alla NASA lavori gente sveglia.
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Voglio dire, hanno usato le teorie di Newton per portarci sulla Luna.
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2018-04-28 14:08:51 +00:00
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Comunque, per farla breve, nel 1986,
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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<i>nonostante gli avvertimenti degli ingegneri</i>,
|
2018-04-28 14:08:51 +00:00
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venne lanciato lo Shuttle <i>Challenger</i>,
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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che esplose durante il decollo e morirono 7 persone.
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La causa immediata:
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faceva troppo freddo quella mattina.
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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La causa meno immediata: i manager ignorarono gli avvertimenti degli ingegneri.
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Perché? A causa del <b>pensiero di gruppo</b><ref id="groupthink"></ref>.
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Quando un gruppo è <i>troppo</i> fortemente legato, (come solitamente accade agli alti livelli delle istituzioni)
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diventa resistente alle idee che possono cambiare le proprie convinzioni o mettere in discussione il proprio ego.
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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E questo è come le istituzioni possono cadere vittima della follia delle masse.
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Ma come si può "pianificare" per dispensare <i>saggezza?</i>
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In breve, due parole:
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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2018-04-28 14:08:51 +00:00
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<next>Legami & Ponti <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<!-- Bonding & Bridging -->
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<words id="bonding_1">
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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← Poche connessioni, e un'idea non si può diffondere.
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<br>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Troppe connessioni, e si cade nel pensiero di gruppo. <div class="rarr"></div>
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="bonding_2">
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<b>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Disegna un gruppo che superi questo punto debole:
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che sia abbastanza connesso da diffondere un'idea compleassa!
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<div class="darr"></div>
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</b>
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</words>
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<words id="bonding_end">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Abbastanza semplice!
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2018-04-28 14:08:51 +00:00
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Il numero delle connessioni <i>all'interno</i> di un gruppo è chiamato <b>bonding social capital</b> (legami)<ref id="social_capital"></ref>.
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Ma cosa possiamo dire delle connessioni...
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<next wiggle>...<i>tra</i> i gruppi?</next>
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="bridging_1">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Come potreste aver immaginato,
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il numero di connessioni <i>tra</i> i gruppi è chiamato
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<b>bridging social capital</b> (ponte).
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Costruire ponti è molto importante, perché aiuta i gruppi a uscire dalle loro camere di risonanza isolate dal mondo esterno!
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<br>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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<b>Costruisci un ponte, per "infettare" chiunque con un'idea saggia complessa:</b>
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="bridging_end">
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2018-04-28 14:08:51 +00:00
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Così come per i legami, anche i ponti hanno un punto debole.<ref id="bridge"></ref>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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(extra challenge: prova a disegnare un ponte così sottile che un contagio complesso
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<i>non possa</i> passarci attraverso!)
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Ora che sappiamo come "disegnare" connessioni <i>all'interno</i> e <i>tra</i> i gruppi, proviamo a...
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<next wiggle>...fare ENTRAMBE le cose allo stesso tempo!</next>
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="bb_1">
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<b style="font-size:2em">FINAL PUZZLE!</b>
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<br>
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Disegna connessioni all'interno (bonding) e tra i gruppi (bridging)
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così da diffondere saggezza verso tutta la popolazione:
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="bb_2">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Congratulazioni, hai appena disegnato una rete molto speciale!
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2018-04-28 14:08:51 +00:00
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Le reti con il giusto mix di ponti e legami
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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sono molto importanti e sono chiamate...
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<next wiggle>“Small World Networks” <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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</words>
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<words id="bb_small_world_1">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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<i>"Unità senza uniformità". "Diversità senza divisione". "E Pluribus Unum: da molti, uno".</i>
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<br>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Non importa come viene definito,
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ma le popolazioni di tutti i tempi e culture spesso sono arrivate alla stessa conclusione:
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<b>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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una società sana ha bisogno di un certo numero di legami <i>interni</i>
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e ponti <i>tra</i> i gruppi.
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</b>
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2018-04-28 14:08:51 +00:00
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Ovvero:
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="bb_small_world_2">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Non questo...
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<br>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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(perché le idee non si possono diffondere)
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="bb_small_world_3">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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e nemmeno questo...
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<br>
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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(perché si ottiene il pensiero di gruppo)
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="bb_small_world_4">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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...ma <i>QUESTO:</i>
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="bb_small_world_5">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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La scienza delle reti ha oggi una definizione matematica per questa saggezza antica:
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la <b>small world network</b><ref id="small_world"></ref>.
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Questo mix ottimale di legami e ponti descrive come
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i nostri neuroni sono connessi<ref id="swn_neurons"></ref>,
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favorisce la creatività collettiva<ref id="swn_creativity"></ref>
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e il problem solving<ref id="swn_social_physics"></ref>,
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e una volta ha persino aiutato il presidente degli Stati Uniti John F. Kennedy ad evitare una guerra nucleare!<ref id="swn_jfk"></ref>
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Quindi, sì, diciamo che i "Piccoli Mondi" sono un bell'affare.
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="bb_small_world_end">
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2018-04-28 14:08:51 +00:00
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<next>ok, recapitolando... <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<!-- Sandbox -->
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<words id="sandbox_caption">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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(pss... vuoi sapere un segreto?<ref id="sandbox"></ref>)
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_contagion">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Contagio:
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_contagion_simple">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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semplice
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_contagion_complex">
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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complesso
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_color_chooser">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Colore del contagio:
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_chooser">
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Scegli uno strumento...
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_pencil">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Disegna Rete
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_add">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Aggiungi Persona
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_add_infected">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Aggiungi "Infetto"
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_move">
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Trascina Persona
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_delete">
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Cancella Persona
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_tool_clear">
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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<b>CANCELLA TUTTO</b>
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_shortcuts_label">
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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(...o, usa le scorciatoie da tastiera!)
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sandbox_shortcuts">
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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[1]: Aggiungi Persona [2]: Aggiungi "Infetto"
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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<br>
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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[Space]: Trascina [Backspace]: Cancella
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<!-- Conclusion -->
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<words id="conclusion_1">
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<div style="font-size: 30px;">
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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IN CONCLUSIONE: tutto riguarda...
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</div>
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<div style="
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width: 100%;
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position: absolute;
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font-size: 88px;
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top: 20px;
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line-height: 100px; display:block;
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">
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Contagi & Relazioni
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</div>
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<div style="
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width: 710px;
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position: absolute;
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top: 125px;
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left: 250px;
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">
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
|
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<b>Contagi:</b>
|
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|
Così come i neuroni passano i segnali elettrici nel cervello,
|
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|
le persone diffondono credenze & comportamenti in una società.
|
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|
Non solo influenziamo i nostri amici,
|
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|
ma anche gli amici degli amici, anche gli amici degli amici degli amici!<ref id="three_degrees"></ref>
|
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|
(“sii il cambiamento che vuoi vedere nel mondo” etc etc)
|
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|
Ma, come per i neuroni, non è solo il segnale che ha importanza, ma anche...
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
|
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|
</div>
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<div style="
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width: 710px;
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position: absolute;
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top: 275px;
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left: 250px;
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">
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
|
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|
<b>Connessioni:</b>
|
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|
|
Troppe poche connessioni e le idee complesse non si possono diffondere.
|
|
|
|
|
|
<i>Troppe</i> connessioni e le idee complesse vengono distrutte dal pensiero di gruppo.
|
|
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|
|
la soluzione è quella di costruire una small world network, il mix ottimale di legami e ponti:
|
|
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|
|
<i>e pluribus unum.</i>
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
|
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|
</div>
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<div style="
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width: 350px;
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position: absolute;
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top: 410px;
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left: 220px;
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text-align: center;
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color: #999;
|
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">
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
|
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|
|
(vuoi creare le tue simulazioni?
|
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|
|
prova la modalità Sandbox, cliccando sull'icona (★) qui sotto!)
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
|
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|
</div>
|
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<div style="
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width: 400px;
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position: absolute;
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top: 395px;
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right: 0px;
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text-align: right;
|
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">
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
|
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|
Quindi, cosa possiamo dire riguardo alla nostra domanda iniziale?
|
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|
Perché alcuni gruppi <i>diventano</i>...
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
|
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</div>
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<div style="
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width: 300px;
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position: absolute;
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top: 460px;
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right: 0px;
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">
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
|
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|
<next>...saggi e/o folli?</next>
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
|
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</div>
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</words>
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<words id="conclusion_2">
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|
<span style="line-height:1.4em; display:block;">
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<div style="height:0.5em"></div>
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|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
|
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|
|
Da Newton alla NASA alla
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
|
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|
<br>
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
|
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|
scienza delle reti, abbiamo visto tanto
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
|
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|
<br>
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
|
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|
oggi. In sintesi, la follia delle masse
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
|
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|
<br>
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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|
non è necessariamente dovuta ai <i>singoli individui</i>, ma
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
|
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|
|
<br>
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
|
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|
|
al modo in cui siamo intappolati nella nostra rete sociale.
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
|
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|
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
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|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
|
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|
Questo <i>NON</i> significa abbandonare la responsabilità personale, perché
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
|
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|
|
<br>
|
2018-04-28 14:08:51 +00:00
|
|
|
|
siamo anche i <i>tessitori</i> di quella rete. Quindi, migliora i tuoi contagi:
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
|
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|
|
<br>
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
|
|
|
|
sii scettico sulle idee che ti lusingano<ref id="flatter"></ref>, investi del tempo per
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
|
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|
<br>
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
|
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|
capire le idee complesse. E, migliora le tue relazioni: lega con persone simili,
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
|
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|
|
<br>
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
|
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|
ma costruisci ponti attraverso i confini politici e culturali.
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
|
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|
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
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|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Possiamo tessere una rete molto saggia. Di sicuro sarà più complicato che
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<br>
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
|
|
|
|
disegnare linee sullo schermo...
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
|
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|
2018-04-28 14:08:51 +00:00
|
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|
<next>...però, ne vale la pena.</next>
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</span>
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</words>
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|
<words id="conclusion_3">
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|
|
<i>
|
2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
|
|
|
|
“I grandi trionfi e le tragedie della storia sono causati,
|
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|
non da persone fondamentalmente buone o fondamentalmente cattive,
|
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|
ma da persone fondamentalmente persone.”
|
2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
|
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|
</i>
|
|
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|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<span style="position:relative; top:5px">~</span> Neil Gaiman & Terry Pratchett
|
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|
|
<div style="height:0.8em"></div>
|
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|
<next small><3</next>
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</words>
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|
<!-- Credits -->
|
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<words id="credits">
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<div style="text-align:center; color:#fff; letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 24px; line-height: 27px;">
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<span style="color:#777; position:relative; top:5px;">
|
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|
created by</span>
|
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|
<div style="font-size: 3em; line-height: 1.0em;">
|
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|
NICKY CASE</div>
|
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|
<a target="_blank" href="http://ncase.me" style="text-decoration:none">
|
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|
|
play my other shtuff</a> ·
|
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|
<a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/ncasenmare" style="text-decoration:none">
|
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|
follow my tweeter</a>
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<br><br>
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<span style="color:#777; position:relative; top:5px; display: inline-block; margin-top: 15px;">
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|
lots of love and thanks to</span>
|
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|
<div style="font-size: 3em; line-height: 1.0em;">
|
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|
MY PATREON SUPPORTERS</div>
|
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|
<a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["supporters"]);'>
|
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|
see names & drawings of supporters</a> ·
|
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|
<a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["playtesters"]);'>
|
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|
see playtesters</a>
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<br>
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|
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.patreon.com/ncase" style="text-decoration:none">
|
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|
help me make more like this! <3</a>
|
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<br><br>
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<span style="display: inline-block; margin-top: 15px;">
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♫ music is
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<a target="_blank" href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Komiku/Tale_on_the_Late/" style="text-decoration:none">
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"Friends 2018" and "Friends 2068"</a>
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by Komiku
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<br>
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</> <i>Crowds</i> is
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<a target="_blank" href="https://github.com/ncase/crowds" style="text-decoration:none">
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fully open source</a>
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</span>
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<br>
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<bon id="further_reading"></bon>
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</div>
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</words>
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<!-- x. misc -->
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<words id="WIN">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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HAI VINTO
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sim_start">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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avvia simulazione
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="sim_stop">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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riavvia & ridisegna
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="translations_exist">
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2018-04-28 13:49:53 +00:00
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Traduzioni:
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2018-04-28 11:18:48 +00:00
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</words>
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<words id="translations_do_not_exist">
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<!-- it'll only show up if no translations exist -->
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What the, no fan-made translations exist yet?!
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</words>
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<words id="translations_add">
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(add your own!)
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</words>
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<!-- - - - - - - -->
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<!-- - - - - - - -->
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<!--
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Sorry, not done yet! These Bonus Boxes need you to TRANSLATE, too:
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(And then afterwards, the final thing, translate the References)
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-->
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<bonus id="books">
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<h3>
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A quick response to James Surowiecki's <i>The Wisdom of Crowds</i>
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</h3>
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<div>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/surowieki.jpg" width="200" height="300" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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First off, I'm not dissing
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<a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds">
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this book.</a>
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It's a good book, and Surowiecki was trying to tackle the same question I am:
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<b>“why do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom?”</b>
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<br><br>
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Surowiecki's answer: crowds make good decisions when everybody is as independent as possible.
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He gives the story of a county fair,
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where the townsfolk were invited to guess the weight of an ox.
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Surprisingly, the average of <i>all</i> their guesses was better than any <i>one</i> guess</i>.
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But, here's the rub: the people have to guess <i>independently</i> of each other.
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Otherwise,
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they'd be influenced by earlier incorrect guesses,
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and the average answer would be highly skewed.
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<br><br>
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But... I don't think "make everyone as independent as possible" is the full answer.
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Even geniuses, who we mischaracterize as the most independent thinkers,
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are deeply influenced by others. As Sir Isaac Newton said,
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<i>“If I have seen further, it is by standing on the sholders of Giants.”</i>
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<br><br>
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So, which idea is correct?
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Does wisdom come from thinking for yourself, or thinking with others?
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The answer is: "yes".
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<br><br>
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So that's what I'll try to explain in this explorable explanation:
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how to get that sweet spot between independence and interdependence —
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that is, how to get a wise crowd.
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</div>
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</bonus>
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<bonus id="connections">
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<h3>
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What other kinds of connections are there?
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</h3>
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<div>
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For the sake of simplicity,
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my simulations pretend that people can only be connected through friendships,
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and that all friendships are equal.
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But network scientists <i>do</i> consider other ways we can be connected, such as:
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/connection1.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>Directional connections.</b> Alice is the boss of Bob, but Bob is not the boss of Alice.
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Carol is the parent of Dave, but Dave is not the parent of Carol.
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"Boss" & "parent" are <i>directional</i> relationships:
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the relationship only goes one way.
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In contrast, "friends" is a <i>bidirectional</i> relationship:
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the relationship goes both ways. (well, hopefully)
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/connection2.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>Weighted connections.</b> Elinor and Frankie are mere acquaintances.
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George and Harry are Best Friends Forever.
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Even though there's a "friendship" connection in both cases, the second one is stronger.
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We say that these two connections have different "weights".
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/map.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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Just remember: <b>all these simulations are wrong.</b> The same way any map is "wrong".
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You see the map on the left? Buildings aren't gray featureless blocks!
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Words don't float above the city! However, maps are useful not <i>despite</i> being simplified,
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but <i>because</i> they're simplified. Same goes for simulations, or any scientific theory.
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Of <i>course</i> they're "wrong" — that's what makes them <i>useful</i>.
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</div>
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</bonus>
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<bonus id="contagions">
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<h3>
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What other kinds of contagions are there?
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</h3>
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<div>
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There are so, so many ways that network scientists can simulate "contagions"!
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I picked the simplest one, for educational purposes.
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But here's other ways you could do it:
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion1.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>Contagions with Randomness</b>.
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Being "exposed" to a contagion doesn't <i>guarantee</i> you'll be infected,
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it only makes it more <i>likely</i>.
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion2.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>People have different contagion thresholds.</b>
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My simulations pretend that everyone has the same threshold for binge-drinking (50%) or
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volunteering (25%) or misinformation (0%).
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Of course, that's not true in real life, and you could make your sim reflect that.
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion3.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>An ecology of contagions.</b>
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What if there were <i>multiple</i> contagions, with <i>different</i> thresholds?
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For example, a simple "madness" contagion and a complex "wisdom" contagion.
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If someone's infected with madness, can they still be infected with wisdom?
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Or vice versa?
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Can someone be infected with both?
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion4.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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<b>Contagions that mutate and evolve.</b>
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Ideas don't pass perfectly from one person to another the way a virus does.
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Like a game of Telephone, the message gets mutated with each re-telling —
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and sometimes the mutant will be more infectious than the original!
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So, over time, ideas "evolve" to be more catchy, copy-able, contagious.
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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</div>
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</bonus>
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<bonus id="further_reading">
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<h3>
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I wanna learn more! What else can I read and/or play?
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</h3>
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<div>
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This explorable explanation was just a springboard for your curiosity,
|
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|
so you can dive deeper into a vast pool of knowledge!
|
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|
Here's more stuff on networks or social systems:
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<br><br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/connected.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
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|
<b>Book:</b>
|
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|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
|
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|
Connected</a>
|
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|
by Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler (2009).
|
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|
An accessible tour of how our networks affect our lives, for good or ill.
|
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|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/pdf/excerpt.pdf">
|
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Here's an excerpt: Preface & Chapter 1
|
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</a>
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/trust.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
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|
<b>Interactive:</b>
|
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|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://ncase.me/trust/">
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Evolution of Trust</a> by Nicky Case (me) (2017).
|
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|
A game about the game theory of how cooperation is built... or destroyed.
|
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/polygons.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
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|
<b>Interactive:</b>
|
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|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://ncase.me/polygons/">
|
|
|
|
|
|
Parable of the Polygons</a> by Vi Hart and Nicky Case (also me) (2014).
|
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|
|
A story about how harmless choices can create a harmful world.
|
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<div style="clear:both"></div>
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<br>
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<img src="sprites/bonus/ee.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
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|
Or, if you just want to see a whole gallery of interactive edu-things, here's
|
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|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://explorabl.es/">
|
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|
|
Explorable Explanations</a>,
|
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|
|
a hub for learning through play!
|
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|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
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</div>
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</bonus>
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|
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
|
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|
|
|
<!-- REFERENCES -->
|
|
|
|
|
|
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<!--
|
|
|
|
|
|
Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE:
|
|
|
|
|
|
-->
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
<reference id="drunk">
|
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<h3>
|
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|
|
“virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did.”
|
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</h3>
|
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<div>
|
|
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|
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1758185">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Biases in the perception of drinking norms among college students”</a> by Baer et al (1991)
|
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|
</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="majority">
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<h3>
|
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|
“The Majority Illusion”
|
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|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147617">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“The Majority Illusion in Social Networks”</a> by Lerman et al (2016).
|
|
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|
|
<br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
Related: <a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendship_paradox">
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Friendship Paradox</a>.
|
|
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|
|
</div>
|
|
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|
|
</reference>
|
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<reference id="contagion">
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<h3>
|
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|
|
“strong statistical evidence that
|
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|
|
|
smoking, health, happiness, voting patterns, and cooperation levels
|
|
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|
|
are all contagious”
|
|
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|
|
</h3>
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|
|
<div>
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|
|
From Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's
|
|
|
|
|
|
wonderfully-written, layperson-accessible book,
|
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|
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|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
|
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|
|
|
Connected</a> (2009).
|
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|
</div>
|
|
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|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="suicides">
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
<h3>
|
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|
|
“some evidence that suicides are [contagious], too”
|
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|
|
</h3>
|
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|
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|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/42000514?seq=4#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
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|
|
“Suicide Contagion and the Reporting of Suicide: Recommendations from a National Workshop”</a>
|
|
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|
|
by O'Carroll et al (1994), endorsed by the frickin' Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC).
|
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|
|
</div>
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|
|
</reference>
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<reference id="shootings">
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|
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<h3>
|
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|
|
“some evidence that mass shootings are [contagious], too”
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</h3>
|
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|
|
<div>
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0117259">
|
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|
|
“Contagion in Mass Killings and School Shootings”</a> by Towers et al (2015).
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
Also see: the
|
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|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.dontnamethem.org/">
|
|
|
|
|
|
Don't Name Them</a> campaign,
|
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|
|
which urges that news outlets <i>DO NOT</i> air mass murderers' names, manifestos, and social media feeds.
|
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|
|
This spreads the contagion.
|
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|
|
Instead, news outlets should focus on the victims, first responders, civilian heroes,
|
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|
|
and the grieving, healing community.
|
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</div>
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|
|
</reference>
|
|
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|
<reference id="subprime">
|
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|
|
<h3>
|
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|
|
|
|
“The world's financial institutions fell for such a cascade in 2008.”
|
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|
|
</h3>
|
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|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://newrepublic.com/article/63023/wall-streets-lemmings">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Lemmings of Wall Street”</a> by Cass Sunstein, is a quick, non-technical read.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Published in Oct 2008, right in the wake of the crash.
|
|
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|
|
</div>
|
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|
|
</reference>
|
|
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|
|
<reference id="complex">
|
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|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
“the complex contagion theory.”
|
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|
</h3>
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|
|
<div>
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.unc.edu/~fbaum/teaching/articles/Granovetter_AJS_1978.pdf">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Threshold Models of Collective Behavior”</a> by Granovetter (1978)
|
|
|
|
|
|
was the first time, as far as I know, anyone described a "complex contagion" model.
|
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|
|
(although he didn't use that specific name)
|
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|
|
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|
|
<br><br>
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0180802">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Evidence for complex contagion models of social contagion from observational data”</a>
|
|
|
|
|
|
by Sprague & House (2017)
|
|
|
|
|
|
shows that complex contagions do, in fact, exist. (at least, in the social media data they looked at)
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
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|
|
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|
Finally,
|
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|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0403699.pdf">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Universal behavior in a generalized model of contagion”</a> by Dodds & Watts (2004)
|
|
|
|
|
|
proposes a model that unifies <i>all</i> kinds of contagions:
|
|
|
|
|
|
simple and complex, biological and social!
|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
</div>
|
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|
|
</reference>
|
|
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|
|
|
<reference id="possum">
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
“the possum has 13 nipples”
|
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
arranged in a ring of 12 nipples, plus one in the middle
|
|
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|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="groupthink">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
“groupthink”
|
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
This Orwell-inspired phrase was coined by Irving L. Janis in 1971.
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100401033524/http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/macdonald/GroupThink.pdf">
|
|
|
|
|
|
In his original article</a>,
|
|
|
|
|
|
Janis investigates cases of groupthink, lists its causes, and — thankfully —
|
|
|
|
|
|
some possible remedies.
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="social_capital">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
“bonding and bridging social capital”
|
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
These two types of social capital — "bonding" and "bridging" —
|
|
|
|
|
|
were named by Robert Putnam in his insightful 2000 book,
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://bowlingalone.com/">
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bowling Alone</a>. His discovery:
|
|
|
|
|
|
across almost <i>all</i> empircal measures of social connectiveness,
|
|
|
|
|
|
Americans are more alone than ever.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Golly.
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="bridge">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
“bridging social capital has a sweet spot”
|
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://sociology.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/the_strength_of_weak_ties_and_exch_w-gans.pdf">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“The Strength of Weak Ties”</a> by Granovetter (1973)
|
|
|
|
|
|
showed that connections across groups helps spread simple contagions (like information),
|
|
|
|
|
|
but
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/521848?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Complex Contagions and the Weakness of Long Ties”</a> by Centola & Macy (2007)
|
|
|
|
|
|
showed that connections across groups may not help complex contagions,
|
|
|
|
|
|
and it fact, can hurt their spread!
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="small_world">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
“the small world network”
|
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The idea of the "small world" was popularized by
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/2786545">Travers & Milgram's 1969 experiment</a>,
|
|
|
|
|
|
which showed that, on average, any two random people in the United States
|
|
|
|
|
|
were just six friendships apart — "six degrees of separation"!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The small-world network got more mathematical meat on its bones with
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://leonidzhukov.net/hse/2014/socialnetworks/papers/watts-collective_dynamics-nature_1998.pdf">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Collective dynamics of small-world networks”</a> by Watts & Strogatz (1998),
|
|
|
|
|
|
which proposed an algorithm for creating networks
|
|
|
|
|
|
with both low average path length (low degree of separation)
|
|
|
|
|
|
and high clustering (friends have lots of mutual friends) —
|
|
|
|
|
|
that is, a network that hits the sweet spot!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You can also play with
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://worrydream.com/ScientificCommunicationAsSequentialArt/">
|
|
|
|
|
|
the visual, interactive adaptation of that paper</a> by Bret Victor (2011).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="swn_neurons">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
“[small world networks] describe how our neurons are connected”
|
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17079517">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Small-world brain networks”</a> by Bassett & Bullmore (2006).
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="swn_creativity">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
“[small world networks] give rise to collective creativity”
|
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/432782?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Collaboration and Creativity: The Small World Problem”</a> by Uzzi & Spiro (2005).
|
|
|
|
|
|
This paper analyzed the social network of the Broadway scene over time,
|
|
|
|
|
|
and discovered that, yup, the network's most creative when it's a "small world" network!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="swn_social_physics">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
“[small world networks] give rise to collective problem-solving”
|
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
See
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://socialphysics.media.mit.edu/">
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Social Physics”</a> by MIT Professor Alex "Sandy" Pentland (2014)
|
|
|
|
|
|
for a data-based approach to collective intelligence.
|
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
</reference>
|
|
|
|
|
|
<reference id="swn_jfk">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
“[small world networks] helped John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war!”
|
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Besides the NASA Challenger explosion, the most notorious example of groupthink
|
|
|
|
|
|
was the Bay of Pigs fiasco.
|
|
|
|
|
|
In 1961, US President John F. Kennedy and his team of advisors thought
|
|
|
|
|
|
— for some reason —
|
|
|
|
|
|
it would be a good idea to secretly invade Cuba and overthrow Fidel Castro.
|
|
|
|
|
|
They failed.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Actually, worse than failed: it led to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962,
|
|
|
|
|
|
<i>the closest the world had ever been to full-scale nuclear war.</i>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yup, JFK really screwed up on that one.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
But, having learnt some hard lessons from the Bay of Pigs fiasco,
|
|
|
|
|
|
JFK re-organized his team to avoid groupthink.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Among many things, he:
|
|
|
|
|
|
1) actively encouraged people to voice criticism,
|
|
|
|
|
|
thus lowering the "contagion threshold" for alternate ideas.
|
|
|
|
|
|
And
|
|
|
|
|
|
2) he broke his team up into sub-groups before reconvening,
|
|
|
|
|
|
which gave their group a "small world network"-like design!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Together, this arrangement allowed for a healthy diversity of opinion,
|
|
|
|
|
|
but without being too fractured — a wisdom of crowds.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
And so, with the same <i>individuals</i> who decided the Bay of Pigs,
|
|
|
|
|
|
but re-arranged <i>collectively</i> to decide on the Cuban Missile Crisis...
|
|
|
|
|
|
JFK's team was able to reach a peaceful agreement with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev.
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Soviets would remove their missiles from Cuba, and in return,
|
|
|
|
|
|
the US would promise not to invade Cuba again.
|
|
|
|
|
|
(and also agreed, in secret, to remove the US missiles from Turkey)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
And that's the story of how all of humanity almost died.
|
|
|
|
|
|
But a small world network saved the day! Sort of.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<br><br>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You can read more about this
|
|
|
|
|
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://hbr.org/2013/11/how-john-f-kennedy-changed-decision-making">
|
|
|
|
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on Harvard Business Review</a>,
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or from
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<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100401033524/http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/macdonald/GroupThink.pdf">
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the original article on groupthink</a>.
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</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="three_degrees">
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<h3>
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“we influence [...] our friends' friends' friends!”
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</h3>
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<div>
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Again, from Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's
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wonderful book,
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<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
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Connected</a> (2009).
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</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="flatter">
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<h3>
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“be skeptical of ideas that flatter you”
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</h3>
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<div>
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yes, including the ideas in <i>this</i> explorable explanation.
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</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="sandbox">
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<h3>
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★ Sandbox Mode ★
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</h3>
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<div>
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The keyboard shortcuts (1, 2, space, backspace)
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work in <i>all</i> the puzzles, not just Sandbox Mode!
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Seriously, you can go back to a different chapter,
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and edit the simulation right there.
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In fact, that's how <i>I</i> created all these puzzles. Have fun!
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</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="supporters" hidden=yes large=yes>
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<div>
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To
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<a target="_blank" href="https://www.patreon.com/ncase">my supporters on Patreon</a>:
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I'm deeply grateful.
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Your generosity <i>literally</i> feeds me and pays my rent,
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and grants me the creative freedom to make these weird math/social-science games.
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From the bottom of my heart, thank you!
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</div>
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</reference>
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<reference id="playtesters" hidden=yes large=yes>
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<div>
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Thank you, everyone who playtested <i>Crowds</i>
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during its many stages of life!
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<br><br>
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<b>The Prototype:</b>
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<br>
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Maria ·
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Monica Srivastava
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<br><br>
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<b>The Alpha:</b>
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<br>
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Glen Chiacchieri ·
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Kalli Repzeti ·
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Mali Akmanalp ·
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Toph Tucker
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<br><br>
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|
<b>The Beta:</b>
|
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<br>
|
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|
|
Alex Dytrych ·
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Amit Patel ·
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Cassandra McClure ·
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Catherine Ray ·
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Josh Comeau ·
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Kayle Sawyer ·
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Matthew Conlen ·
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Srini Kadamati ·
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Vanessa Shen ·
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Wick Perry
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</div>
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</reference>
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</span>
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<!--
|
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
And that's it! That's the last of what needed to a TRANSLATE
|
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|
|
Thank you so, so much for doing this again, wow.
|
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|
|
Finally, go to "translations.txt" and follow the instructions there,
|
|
|
|
|
|
in order to let this game "know" your translation exists.
|
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|
-->
|
