1675 lines
51 KiB
HTML
1675 lines
51 KiB
HTML
<!--
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THE WISDOM AND/OR MADNESS OF CROWDS
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by Nicky Case | apr 2018
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- - - - - - - - - - -
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FAN TRANSLATION GUIDE:
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https://github.com/ncase/crowds#how-to-translate-this-thing
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Hello fan-translaters! Thank you so, so much for your help.
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I hope you know what you've gotten yourself into.
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There's about 3600+ WORDS to translate, including
|
||
the Bonus Boxes and References.
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To make things easier (or less painful, anyway) I've marked
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what needs to be translated and how with big "TRANSLATE" comments.
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Ctrl+F for "TRANSLATE" in uppercase to see what needs to be translated!
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BUT BEFORE YOU TRANSLATE ANYTHING, DO THIS:
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1) Look up the two-letter code of the language you're translating to:
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ISO_639-1_codes
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2) *COPY* index.html, and name the copy [two-letter-code].html
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For example: de.html, ar.html, zh.html, etc...
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3) Translate *THAT* page. Do NOT modify the original index.html!
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And once you're done, go to "translations.txt", and follow the
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instructions there to let this game "know" your translation exists.
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Good luck, and thanks again!
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<3,
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~ Nicky Case
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-->
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html>
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<head>
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<!-- Meta Info -->
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<title>La sabiduría y/o locura de las masas</title> <!-- <title>(TRANSLATE this part only)</title> -->
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<meta name="description" content="una guía interactiva sobre las redes sociales humanas"/> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta content="text/html;charset=utf-8" http-equiv="Content-Type">
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<meta content="utf-8" http-equiv="encoding">
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<meta charset="utf-8">
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<link rel="icon" type="image/png" href="favicon.png">
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<!-- Sharing -->
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<meta itemprop="name" content="La sabiduría y/o locura de las masas"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta itemprop="description" content="una guía interactiva sobre las redes sociales humanas"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta itemprop="image" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/social/thumb.png">
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<meta name="twitter:title" content="a sabiduría y/o locura de las masas"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta name="twitter:description" content="una guía interactiva sobre las redes sociales humanas"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image">
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<meta name="twitter:site" content="@ncasenmare">
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<meta name="twitter:creator" content="@ncasenmare">
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<meta name="twitter:image" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/social/thumb.png">
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<meta property="og:title" content="The Wisdom and/or Madness of Crowds"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta property="og:description" content="una guía interactiva sobre las redes sociales humanas"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta property="og:type" content="website">
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<meta property="og:url" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/">
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<meta property="og:image" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/social/thumb.png">
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<!-- Styles -->
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<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="css/index.css?v=3">
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</head>
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<body>
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<!-- THE SLIDESHOW -->
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<div id="container">
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<!-- Simulation(s) in background -->
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<div id="simulations_container">
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<div id="simulations"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Slideshow: words & buttons -->
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<div id="slideshow_container">
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<div id="slideshow"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Scratch Transition -->
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<canvas id="scratch" width="711" height="400"></canvas>
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<!-- Skip -->
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<div id="skip">saltar ></div> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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<!-- Modal -->
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<div id="modal_container">
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<div id="modal_bg"></div>
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<div id="modal">
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<div id="modal_close">⨯</div>
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<div id="modal_content_container">
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<div id="modal_content"></div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Navigation: Audio, Contents, Share, Translations -->
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<div id="navigation_container">
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<div id="sound" mute="no">
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<div id="sound_icon"></div>
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<span id="sound_on">SÍ</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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<span id="sound_off">NO</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</div>
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<div id="sharing">
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<a id="fb" target="_blank" href="TODO"></a>
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<a id="tw" target="_blank" href="TODO"></a>
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<a id="em" target="_blank" href="TODO"></a>
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<span id="share_title">
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La sabiduría y/o locura de las masas <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</span>
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<span id="share_desc">
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<!-- TRANSLATOR: keep this on ONE LINE or the social sharing will break! -->
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¿Por qué la gente en sociedad actúa de forma sabia, estúpida, altruista o cruel? Una guía interactiva sobre las redes sociales humanas: <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</span>
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</div>
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<div id="navigation">
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<!-- The chapters -->
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<!-- TRANSLATE all the Chapter names! -->
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<div chapter="Introduction">
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<span>0</span>
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<span>0. Intro</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Networks">
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<span>1</span>
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<span>1. Relaciones</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Simple">
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<span>2</span>
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<span>2. Contagios</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Complex">
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<span>3</span>
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<span>3. Contagios complejos</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="BB">
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<span>4</span>
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<span>4. Vínculos y puentes</span> <!-- note: & is html for the "and" sign -->
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</div>
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<div chapter="SmallWorld">
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<span>5</span>
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<span>5. El mundo es un pañuelo</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Conclusion">
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<span>6</span>
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<span>6. Y para terminar...</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Credits">
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<span>7</span>
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<span>7. Créditos</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Sandbox">
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<span>★</span>
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<span>★ ¡Juego libre! ★</span>
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</div>
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<!-- A divider -->
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<span class="nav_divider"></span>
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<!-- Bonus Notes & References -->
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||
<div modal="bonus">
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<span>¿?</span>
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<span>¡Más cosas!</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</div>
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<div modal="references">
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<span style="margin-top: 7px; font-size: 35px;">*</span>
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<span>Enlaces y referencias</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</div>
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<div modal="translations">
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<span style="margin-top:5px; position:relative;"><span style="
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position: absolute;
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top: -8px;
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left: 6px;
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">A</span><span style="
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position: absolute;
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font-size: 16px;
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top: -1px;
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left: 16px;
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">あ</span></span>
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<span>Traducciones</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</div>
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<!-- The hover bubble -->
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||
<span id="nav_bubble"></span>
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</div>
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<div id="translations"></div>
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<div id="social"></div>
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</div>
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||
|
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<!-- The Pencil -->
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||
<div id="pencil_container">
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||
<canvas id="pencil"></canvas>
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||
</div>
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<!-- Preloader -->
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<div id="pre_preloader">
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<div>cargando...</div> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</div>
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</body>
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</html>
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<!-- - - - - -->
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<!-- SCRIPTS -->
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<!-- - - - - -->
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<script src="js/lib/helpers.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/minpubsub.src.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/howler.min.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/Key.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/Mouse.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/Sprite.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Slideshow.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Pencil.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Boxes.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Scratch.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Navigation.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/SimUI.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/SandboxUI.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Modal.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Preloader.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Translations.js?v=2"></script>
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<script src="js/sim/Peep.js?v=2"></script>
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<script src="js/sim/Connection.js"></script>
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||
<script src="js/sim/ConnectorCutter.js"></script>
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||
<script src="js/sim/Simulations.js"></script>
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||
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||
<script src="js/chapters/A_Preloader.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/B_Introduction.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/C_Networks.js"></script>
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||
<script src="js/chapters/D_Simple_Contagion.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/E_Complex_Contagion.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/F_Bonding_And_Bridging.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/G_Small_World.js"></script>
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||
<script src="js/chapters/H_Conclusion.js"></script>
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||
<script src="js/chapters/I_Credits.js"></script>
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||
<script src="js/chapters/J_Sandbox.js?v=2"></script>
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<script src="js/main.js"></script>
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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<!-- THE SLIDESHOW'S WORDS -->
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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<!--
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This is the bulk of what you need to TRANSLATE!
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||
Translate just the text that's within the <tag></tags>
|
||
If you're using a code editor (like Sublime Text https://www.sublimetext.com/),
|
||
it should automatically highlight what the text is (usually in white).
|
||
|
||
-->
|
||
|
||
<span style="display:none">
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||
|
||
<!-- Preloader -->
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||
|
||
<words id="preloader_title">
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||
|
||
<div style="font-size: 30px;">
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<span>la</span>
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<br>
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<span style="font-size: 60px;letter-spacing: 4px;">SABIDURÍA</span>
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<span style="position:relative;top: -10px;">y/o</span>
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<span style="font-size: 60px;">LOCURA</span>
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||
<br>
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||
<span style="position: relative;top: -11px;">de las</span>
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||
<br>
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||
<span style="font-size: 100px;line-height: 80px;position: relative;top: -15px; display:block;">MASAS</span>
|
||
</div>
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||
|
||
<div style="color:#999">
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<!-- TRANSLATE note: comment out the line below... -->
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<!-- te llevará unos 30 min • creada por nicky case en abril de 2018 -->
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<!-- ...and UN-comment + TRANSLATE this line! -->
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creada por nicky case • traducida por swyter • <a href='/'>puedes verla en inglés</a>
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||
</div>
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||
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||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="preloader_button">
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||
<next></next>
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||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="preloader_loading">
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||
cargando...
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||
</words>
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||
|
||
<words id="preloader_play">
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||
¡a jugar se ha dicho! <div class="rarr"></div>
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||
</words>
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||
|
||
<!-- Introduction -->
|
||
<!--
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TRANSLATE note: to make the text stay in a circle, I added lots of <br> breaks.
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You may have to re-arrange the <br>'s in order to do your translation.
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It shouldn't look too bad if they're slightly off, though!
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|
||
Also, <b></b> bolds a word/phrase, and <i></i> italicizes a word/phrase.
|
||
|
||
-->
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<words id="intro">
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<br><br>
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Sir Isaac Newton se lo tenía muy creído, el pobre.
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<br>
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A ver, inventó cosas como el cálculo infinitesimal y la
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<br>
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teoría de la gravedad; alguien tan listo como él tendría claro
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<br>
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dónde invertir su dinero, ¿eh?
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<br><br>
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Bueno, pues va a ser que no. Resulta que perdió
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<br>
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unos 3,7 millones de euros (sí, de los de ahora) especulando
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<br>
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en la burbuja de los mares del sur de 1720.
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<br><br>
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||
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Poco después el señor Newton dijo: <i>“Puedo predecir la órbita
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||
<br>
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||
de los cuerpos celestiales, pero no la locura humana.”</i>
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||
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||
<next>vaya, pues qué marrón <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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||
|
||
</words>
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||
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||
<words id="intro_2">
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||
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||
<div style="height:0.5em"></div>
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||
Pero claro, no es la primera vez que a los
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<br>
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mercados, instituciones o democracias enteras se
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<br>
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les va la olla; la locura de las masas. Y aún así, cuando
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<br>
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empiezas a perder confianza en los otros humanos ves a
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<br>
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ciudadanos coordinándose para rescatarse entre ellos tras el paso
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<br>
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de un huracán, o comunidades enteras creando soluciones a problemas
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<br>
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y luchando por un mundo mejor; ¡la sabiduría de las masas
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<br><br>
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<b>¿Pero <i>cómo</i> es que la gente puede elegir tan bien y mal a la vez?</b>
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||
<br>
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||
No hay una sola teoría que pueda explicar todo este tinglado, pero
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||
<br>
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||
creo que hay un nuevo campo de estudio, el <b>análisis de redes
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||
<br>
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||
sociales</b>, que puede echarnos un cable. La idea se resume en
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||
<br>
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dos palabras: para entender a una sociedad no debemos
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||
<br>
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||
mirar al individuo, sino a...
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||
<br>
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||
<next>...sus <i>relaciones.</i> <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Networks -->
|
||
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||
<words id="networks_tutorial_start">
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||
<b>¡A enchufar a gente!</b>
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||
Cada conexión representa una relación entre dos personitas:
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="networks_tutorial_connect">
|
||
únelos con una raya
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="networks_tutorial_disconnect">
|
||
cruza otra para borrarla
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="networks_tutorial_end">
|
||
|
||
cuando hayas terminado haz clic en el botón para continuar
|
||
<next wiggle>venga, a ver qué más <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="networks_threshold">
|
||
|
||
Pero bueno, la relaciones sociales sirven para algo más que gráficos chulos.
|
||
La gente <i>se orienta</i> por sus personas cercanas para entender el mundo.
|
||
A ver, por ejemplo, nos fijamos en los nuestros para
|
||
saber <b>qué % de amigos</b> (sin contarse ellos),
|
||
em, le dan a la botella. <icon name="yellow"></icon>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="networks_threshold_instruction">
|
||
<b>¡Crea y borra relaciones para ver qué pasa! <div class="rarr"></div> </b>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="networks_threshold_end">
|
||
<next>vale, creo que lo voy pillando</next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="networks_pre_puzzle">
|
||
Aún así, las relaciones pueden <i>confundirnos</i>.
|
||
Al igual que la tierra parece plana desde abajo
|
||
nos podemos hacer una idea equivocada de la sociedad porque estamos <i>dentro</i> de ella.
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="optional_reading">
|
||
<div style="position:absolute; top:5px;">
|
||
¡notas <i>opcionales</i>! ↑
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div style="position:absolute; left:216px; top:10px;">
|
||
↓ enlaces y referencias
|
||
</div>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="networks_pre_puzzle_2">
|
||
|
||
<bon id="books"></bon>
|
||
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
Un caso muy práctico ocurrió en un estudio de 1991<ref id="drunk"></ref>, que decía que
|
||
«prácticamente todos los estudiantes [universitarios] pensaban que sus amigos le daban a la botella más que ellos».
|
||
¿Pero cómo es eso? ¡No puede ser!
|
||
Ya verás, estás a punto de descubrirlo por tu cuenta y riesgo dibujando redes sociales.
|
||
Es hora de...
|
||
|
||
<next>ENGAÑAR A TODOS, JAJÁ <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="networks_puzzle">
|
||
|
||
<b style="font-size:2em">¡LE PUZLE!</b>
|
||
<br>
|
||
Engaña <i>a todos</i> para que piensen que
|
||
la mayoría de sus amigos (los que pasen de 50%) beben como campeones <icon name="yellow"></icon>
|
||
(incluso cuando los que no beben ni gota son justo el doble!)
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="networks_puzzle_metric">
|
||
<b>HAS ENGAÑADO: a</b>
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="networks_puzzle_metric_2">
|
||
de 9 tronquis
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="networks_puzzle_end">
|
||
¡Eso es! Acabas de manipular a un grupo de estudiantes para que
|
||
crean que una norma social poco sanota es lo normal. ¡Bien hecho!
|
||
<next wiggle>...eh. ¿gracias?, creo</next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="networks_post_puzzle">
|
||
|
||
Acabas de la inventarte la ilusión de la mayoría<ref id="majority"></ref>,
|
||
lo que explica por qué la gente se cree que sus ideas políticas son normales y mesuradas,
|
||
o por qué el extremismo parece algo más común de lo que es en realidad.
|
||
<i>Locura, todos locos.</i>
|
||
|
||
<bon id="connections"></bon>
|
||
|
||
Pero la gente no se dedica sólo a <i>observar</i> las ideas y los comportamientos de otros de forma pasiva,
|
||
sino que también los <i>copiamos</i> de los que nos rodean.
|
||
Así que, pasemos a algo muy novedoso que los que saben de sociología llaman...
|
||
|
||
<next>«¡Contagios!» <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Simple Contagions -->
|
||
|
||
<words id="simple_simple">
|
||
<i>Pero dejemos de lado todo ese tema de «porcentajes».</i>
|
||
En la parte de abajo tenemos una personita <icon name="red"></icon> con ganas de contarnos algo chuli.
|
||
¿Información? No, <i>des</i>información, o «noticias falsas», como lo llaman ahora los del telediario.
|
||
Cada día esa personita lanza el rumor a sus amigos como si de una infección vírica se tratase.
|
||
Y estos lo pasan a su vez a sus propios amigos y a los amigos de sus amigos, hasta que todo el mundo se entera.
|
||
<br>
|
||
<b>
|
||
¡Dale a simular! <div class="darr"></div>
|
||
(por cierto: no puedes mover las rayas <i>mientras</i> esté en progreso)
|
||
</b>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="simple_simple_2">
|
||
<i>Nota importante</i>: aunque «contagio» aquí suene bastante fuerte tirando a negativo, en sociología también pueden ser buenos.
|
||
Estadísticamente hablando hay bastantes pruebas<ref id="contagion"></ref> de que cosas como fumar, tu salud o felicidad, patrones de voto y niveles de cooperación se pasen de persona en persona.
|
||
|
||
Incluso de cosas tan terribles como suicidios<ref id="suicides"></ref> y tiroteos<ref id="shootings"></ref>.
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="simple_simple_end">
|
||
<next wiggle>vaya, menudo bajón <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="simple_cascade">
|
||
Pues sí, la verdad.
|
||
En fin, <b>¡HAGAMOS UN PUZLE!</b>
|
||
<br>
|
||
Conecta a las personitas y empieza la simulación,
|
||
intentando que <i>todo el mundo</i> se «contagie», informativamente hablando.
|
||
<br>
|
||
(ah, nueva regla: no puedes borrar las relaciones con rayas <i>gruesas</i>)
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="simple_cascade_end">
|
||
<next wiggle>chupi guay mega chuli <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="simple_post_cascade">
|
||
Este fenómero tan irracional se denomina una <b>«cascada informativa»</b>.
|
||
El señor Newton cayó en una de estas en 1720.
|
||
Las instituciones financieras cayeron en una cascada parecida en 2008.<ref id="subprime"></ref>
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
Y aún así: <i>esta simulación no está bien hecha.</i>
|
||
La mayor parte de las ideas <i>no</i> se extienden como un virus.
|
||
Para cambiar muchas creencias y comportamientos hay que estar «expuesto» al contagio varias veces.
|
||
Así que los sociólogos han acuñado otro término que se ajusta más al concepto...
|
||
<next wiggle>¡Contagios <i>«complejos»</i>! <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Complex Contagions -->
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_complex">
|
||
|
||
¡Volvamos a hablar de «porcentajes» y de darle a la botella <icon name="yellow"></icon> con otro ejemplo!
|
||
La primera vez que jugaste las personitas no cambiaban su criterio.
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
A partir de ahora simulemos lo que pasa si cada persona empieza a beber
|
||
<i>cuando ven a más del 50% de sus amigos empinando el codo.</i>
|
||
<b>Antes de empezar a simular pregúntate lo que <i>crees</i> que va a pasar.</b>
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
<b>¿Ya está? Bien. ¡Dale al botón y veamos lo que pasa! <div class="rarr"></div> </b>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_complex_2">
|
||
<span style="line-height:1.3em; display:block;">
|
||
|
||
Vaya, a diferencia del contagio de «noticias falsas» de antes <icon name="red"></icon>,
|
||
este contagio <icon name="yellow"></icon> <i>no</i> se extiende a todo el mundo.
|
||
Los primeros sí que se «infectan» porque, aunque sólo están expuestos a uno que empina el codo,
|
||
este supone el 50% de sus amigos. (sí, están solitos)
|
||
En cambio esa personita al final de la cadena <i>no</i> se «contagió»,
|
||
porque incluso estando expuestos a amigos que bebían no pasaban del 50%.
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
|
||
|
||
Este porcentaje <i>relativo</i> de amigos «infectados» es importante.
|
||
<i>Es</i> justo lo que separa los <b>contagios complejos</b> aquí teorizados<ref id="complex"></ref>,
|
||
con la versión más simple de si-me-toca-uno-me-infecto que vimos antes.
|
||
(estos últimos son como contagios complejos con el límite puesto a más de 0% en vez de 50%)
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
|
||
|
||
Pero, aún así los contagios no son malos por naturaleza—
|
||
así que pasemos de todo este rollo de la <i>irracionalidad</i>, y que tal si abordamos el tema de...
|
||
<next>...la ¿sabiduría? de masas</next>
|
||
|
||
</span>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_complex_3">
|
||
|
||
Bueno, he aquí una personita <icon name="blue"></icon> que dedica su tiempo a... yo qué sé,
|
||
rescatar a gente de huracanes, dar clases de apoyo a niños sin recursos de la zona, o algo por el estilo.
|
||
De lo que se trata es que éste es un «contagio» de los buenos.
|
||
Aunque pongamos que esta vez el límite mínimo está al 25% —
|
||
la gente quiere hacer de voluntario, pero sólo si 25% o más de sus amigos también lo hace.
|
||
Pero bueno, ya sabemos que las cosas buenas llevan su tiempo.
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
<b>← ¡Infecta a todo quisqui de buen rollo!</b>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_complex_3_end">
|
||
<span style="line-height:1.3em; display:block;">
|
||
|
||
<b>NOTA:</b> Ser un voluntario es sólo una forma de influir en los demás!
|
||
Otras formas pueden ser hacer que más gente vote, cambiar los hábitos de vida o las creencias de uno,
|
||
dedicarle tiempo a intentar entender un tema complejo. Cualquier otra cosa que requiera más de una exposición.
|
||
Los contagios complejos no son necesariamente buenos, pero sí al revés.
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
|
||
|
||
(¿Quieres un ejemplo de un contagio simple en el día a día?
|
||
Suelen ser datos curiosos del tipo «la zarigüeya tiene un total de 13 pezones».<ref id="possum"></ref>)
|
||
|
||
<bon id="contagions"></bon>
|
||
|
||
Y ahora para que veas lo raros y potentes que son los contagios simples volvamos a ver...
|
||
|
||
<next>...uno de los primeros puzles <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
|
||
</span>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_cascade">
|
||
¿Te acuerdas? ahora lo haremos con un contagio <i>complejo</i> <icon name="blue"></icon>, y será un pelín más complicado...
|
||
<br>
|
||
<b>¡Intenta contagiar a todos en positivo! <div class="darr"></div></b>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_cascade_feel_free">
|
||
(puedes iniciar la simulación cuantas veces quieras e ir probando, no hay problema)
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_cascade_end">
|
||
<next wiggle>VAYA<div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_post_cascade">
|
||
Puede que a estas alturas te crear que basta con añadir más y más relaciones para contagiar a todo el mundo,
|
||
da igual si es «simple» o «complejo», bueno o malo, sabio o irracional.
|
||
¿Pero seguro que es así? Veamos...
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="complex_post_cascade_end">
|
||
<next wiggle>...otro puzle de una forma distinta <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_prevent">
|
||
Si arrancas la simulación el contagio complejo <icon name="blue"></icon> se pasará hasta llegar a todos.
|
||
Eso está claro.
|
||
Pero ahora vamos a hacer lo <i>contrario</i> de lo que hemos hecho hasta ahora:
|
||
<b>crea una red que <i>evite</i> el contagio, ¡con que se salve uno vale! <div class="darr"></div></b>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_prevent_2">
|
||
¿Ves, te das cuenta?
|
||
Aunque añadiendo más líneas consigues que las ideas <i>simples</i> se extiendan,
|
||
<b>tener más relaciones puede ser negativo a la hora de extender ideas <i>complejas</i>!</b>
|
||
(le hace a uno pensar sobre los efectos de Internet, ¿eh?)
|
||
Y ni siquiera estamos hablando de algo teórico, sino que tiene consecuencias reales, en cuestiones de vida...
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_prevent_end">
|
||
<next wiggle>...o muerte. <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_groupthink">
|
||
|
||
Los de la NASA son unos listillos.
|
||
A ver, utilizan las ecuaciones de Newton para llevarnos a la Luna.
|
||
Pero bueno, resumiendo un poco, en 1986,
|
||
<i>incluso después de desoir las advertencias de los ingenieros</i>,
|
||
lanzaron el <i>Challenger</i>,
|
||
que explotó quitándole la vida a siete pasajeros.
|
||
La causa principal:
|
||
la mañana del despegue hacía mucho frío.
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
||
|
||
Qué otras causas secundarias: los mandamases ignoraron el consejo de los ingenieros.
|
||
¿Por qué? Por culpa del <b>pensamiento grupal</b><ref id="groupthink"></ref>.
|
||
Cuando un grupo está <i>demasiado</i> cerrado, (como suele pasar en la cúspide de las directivas institucionales)
|
||
se inmunizan frente a las ideas complejas que puedan ir en contra de sus creencias o egos.
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
||
|
||
Así es como puede llevar a las instituciones a actuar de forma irracional.
|
||
Pero, ¿como podemos «prepararnos» para crear <i>sociedades constructivas?</i>
|
||
Muy fácil, en dos palabras:
|
||
|
||
<next>Vínculos y puentes <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Bonding & Bridging -->
|
||
|
||
<words id="bonding_1">
|
||
← Muy pocas relaciones y la idea no se extiende.
|
||
<br>
|
||
demasiadas y terminas desarrollando pensamiento grupal. <div class="rarr"></div>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="bonding_2">
|
||
<b>
|
||
Traza un grupo que tenga lo mejor de ambas cosas:
|
||
lo suficientemente conectado como para difundir ideas complejas!
|
||
<div class="darr"></div>
|
||
</b>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="bonding_end">
|
||
¡Bastante simple! ¿no?
|
||
A la cantidad de conexiones que hay <i>dentro</i> de un grupo se le llama <b>capital social vinculante</b><ref id="social_capital"></ref>.
|
||
Pero, ¿y qué pasa con las relaciones...
|
||
<next wiggle>...<i>entre various</i> grupos?</next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="bridging_1">
|
||
As you may have already guessed,
|
||
the number of connections <i>between</i> groups is called
|
||
<b>bridging social capital</b>.
|
||
This is important, because it helps groups break out of their insular echo chambers!
|
||
<br>
|
||
<b>Build a bridge, to "infect" everyone with complex wisdom:</b>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="bridging_end">
|
||
Like bonding, there's a sweet spot for bridging, too.<ref id="bridge"></ref>
|
||
(extra challenge: try drawing a bridge so thick that the complex contagion
|
||
<i>can't</i> pass through it!)
|
||
Now that we know how to "design" connections <i>within</i> and <i>between</i> groups, let's...
|
||
<next wiggle>...do BOTH at the same time!</next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="bb_1">
|
||
|
||
<b style="font-size:2em">¡ÚLTIMO PUZLE!</b>
|
||
<br>
|
||
Traza relaciones internas para formar grupos (vínculo) y externas entre grupos (puentes)
|
||
para difundir ideas racionales a diestro y siniestro:
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="bb_2">
|
||
|
||
¡Muy bien, acabas de crear un tipo de relación muy especial!
|
||
Son conexiones con el punto ideal de vínculos y puentes
|
||
son tremendamente importantes, y se les llama...
|
||
<next wiggle>“redes de mundo pequeño” <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="bb_small_world_1">
|
||
|
||
<i>"Unidad sin uniformidad". "Diversidad sin división". "E Pluribus Unum: todos para uno".</i>
|
||
<br>
|
||
No importa como lo llames,
|
||
todas las personas da igual su tiempo o lugar llegan a la misma conclusión:
|
||
<b>
|
||
una sociedad saludable necesita un punto intermedio de <i>vínculos</i> en grupos
|
||
y puentes <i>entre</i> grupos.
|
||
</b>
|
||
Lo que significa:
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="bb_small_world_2">
|
||
Y no esto...
|
||
<br>
|
||
(porque las ideas no se pueden difundir)
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="bb_small_world_3">
|
||
ni esto...
|
||
<br>
|
||
(porque terminas con pensamiento grupal)
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="bb_small_world_4">
|
||
...sino <i>ESTO:</i>
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="bb_small_world_5">
|
||
|
||
Los sociólogos ahora tienen una definición matemática para esta verdad atemportal:
|
||
la <b>red de mundo pequeño</b><ref id="small_world"></ref>.
|
||
Esta mezcla ideal de vínculos y puentes formula como se conectan nuestras neuronas
|
||
<ref id="swn_neurons"></ref>,
|
||
fomenta la creatividad colectiva<ref id="swn_creativity"></ref>
|
||
y la resolución de problemas<ref id="swn_social_physics"></ref>,
|
||
e incluso ayudó al presidente de los EE.UU. John F. Kennedy a evitar (por los pelos) la guerra nuclear!<ref id="swn_jfk"></ref>
|
||
Así que sí, los mundos pequeños son muy importantes.
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="bb_small_world_end">
|
||
<next>mola, terminemos pues... <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Sandbox -->
|
||
|
||
<words id="sandbox_caption">
|
||
(ey... ¿sabes mi secreto?<ref id="sandbox"></ref>)
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="sandbox_contagion">
|
||
Contagio:
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_contagion_simple">
|
||
simple
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_contagion_complex">
|
||
complejo
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_color_chooser">
|
||
Color del contagio:
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_tool_chooser">
|
||
Elige una herramienta...
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="sandbox_tool_pencil">
|
||
Editar relaciones
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_tool_add">
|
||
Crear personas
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_tool_add_infected">
|
||
Crear «infectados»
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_tool_move">
|
||
Mover personas
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_tool_delete">
|
||
Borrar personas
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_tool_clear">
|
||
<b>BORRARLO TODO</b>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="sandbox_shortcuts_label">
|
||
(...o, ¡los atajos del teclado!)
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="sandbox_shortcuts">
|
||
[1]: Crear persona [2]: «infectado»
|
||
<br>
|
||
[Espacio]: Mover [Retroceso]: Borrar
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Conclusion -->
|
||
|
||
<words id="conclusion_1">
|
||
|
||
<div style="font-size: 30px;">
|
||
IN CONCLUSION: it's all about...
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div style="
|
||
width: 100%;
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
font-size: 88px;
|
||
top: 20px;
|
||
line-height: 100px; display:block;
|
||
">
|
||
Contagions & Connections
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div style="
|
||
width: 710px;
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
top: 125px;
|
||
left: 250px;
|
||
">
|
||
<b>Contagions:</b>
|
||
Like how neurons pass signals in a brain,
|
||
people pass beliefs & behaviors in a society.
|
||
Not only do we influence our friends,
|
||
we also influence our friends' friends, and even our friends' friends' friends!<ref id="three_degrees"></ref>
|
||
(“be the change you wanna see in the world” etc etc)
|
||
But, like neurons, it's not just signals that matter, it's also...
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div style="
|
||
width: 710px;
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
top: 275px;
|
||
left: 250px;
|
||
">
|
||
<b>Connections:</b>
|
||
Too few connections and complex ideas can't spread.
|
||
Too <i>many</i> connections and complex ideas get crushed by groupthink.
|
||
The trick is to build a small world network, the optimal mix of
|
||
bonding and bridging: <i>e pluribus unum.</i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div style="
|
||
width: 350px;
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
top: 410px;
|
||
left: 220px;
|
||
text-align: center;
|
||
color: #999;
|
||
">
|
||
(wanna make your own simulations?
|
||
check out Sandbox Mode, by clicking the (★) button below!)
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div style="
|
||
width: 400px;
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
top: 395px;
|
||
right: 0px;
|
||
text-align: right;
|
||
">
|
||
So, what about our question from the very beginning?
|
||
Why <i>do</i> some crowds turn to...
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div style="
|
||
width: 300px;
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
top: 460px;
|
||
right: 0px;
|
||
">
|
||
<next>...wisdom and/or madness?</next>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="conclusion_2">
|
||
<span style="line-height:1.4em; display:block;">
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.5em"></div>
|
||
|
||
From Newton to NASA to
|
||
<br>
|
||
network science, we've covered a lot here
|
||
<br>
|
||
today. Long story short, the madness of crowds
|
||
<br>
|
||
is not necessarily due to the <i>individual people</i>, but due
|
||
<br>
|
||
to how we're trapped in a network's sticky web.
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
||
|
||
That <i>does NOT</i> mean abandoning personal responsibility, for
|
||
<br>
|
||
we're also the <i>weavers</i> of that web. So, improve your contagions:
|
||
<br>
|
||
be skeptical of ideas that flatter you<ref id="flatter"></ref>, spend time understanding
|
||
<br>
|
||
complex ideas. And, improve your connections: bond with similar
|
||
<br>
|
||
folk, but also build bridges across cultural/political divides.
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
||
|
||
We can weave a wise web. Sure, it's harder than doodling
|
||
<br>
|
||
lines on a screen...
|
||
|
||
<next>...but so, so worth it.</next>
|
||
|
||
</span>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="conclusion_3">
|
||
<i>
|
||
“The great triumphs and tragedies of history are caused,
|
||
not by people being fundamentally good or fundamentally bad,
|
||
but by people being fundamentally people.”
|
||
</i>
|
||
<br>
|
||
<span style="position:relative; top:5px">~</span> Neil Gaiman & Terry Pratchett
|
||
<div style="height:0.8em"></div>
|
||
<next small><3</next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Credits -->
|
||
|
||
<words id="credits">
|
||
|
||
<div style="text-align:center; color:#fff; letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 24px; line-height: 27px;">
|
||
|
||
<span style="color:#777; position:relative; top:5px;">
|
||
creado por</span>
|
||
<div style="font-size: 3em; line-height: 1.0em;">
|
||
NICKY CASE</div>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://ncase.me" style="text-decoration:none">
|
||
juega a mis otras cosillas</a> ·
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/ncasenmare" style="text-decoration:none">
|
||
píame en mi twitter</a>
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
<span style="color:#777; position:relative; top:5px; display: inline-block; margin-top: 15px;">
|
||
quedo eternamente agradecida a</span>
|
||
<div style="font-size: 3em; line-height: 1.0em;">
|
||
MIS PATRONOS EN PATREON</div>
|
||
<a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["supporters"]);'>
|
||
mira los nombres y dibujitos de los patronos</a> ·
|
||
<a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["playtesters"]);'>
|
||
mira quién lo ha ido probando</a>
|
||
<br>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.patreon.com/ncase" style="text-decoration:none">
|
||
¡ayúdame a hacer más cosillas de estas! <3</a>
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
<span style="display: inline-block; margin-top: 15px;">
|
||
♫ las pistas de música son
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Komiku/Tale_on_the_Late/" style="text-decoration:none">
|
||
«Friends 2018» y «Friends 2068»</a>
|
||
de Komiku
|
||
<br>
|
||
</> <i>Sabiduría de masas</i> es
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://github.com/ncase/crowds" style="text-decoration:none">
|
||
código completamente libre</a>
|
||
</span>
|
||
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<bon id="further_reading"></bon>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- x. misc -->
|
||
<words id="WIN">
|
||
BIEN
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sim_start">
|
||
simular ahora
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sim_stop">
|
||
parar y reintentar
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="translations_exist">
|
||
Traducciones de otros fans:
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="translations_do_not_exist">
|
||
<!-- There's no need to TRANSLATE this line since, well, -->
|
||
<!-- it'll only show up if no translations exist -->
|
||
¡Pero bueno! ¿Vaya, no hay traducciones?
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="translations_add">
|
||
(añade una nueva)
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
||
<!-- BONUS BOXES -->
|
||
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
||
|
||
<!--
|
||
Sorry, not done yet! These Bonus Boxes need you to TRANSLATE, too:
|
||
(And then afterwards, the final thing, translate the References)
|
||
-->
|
||
|
||
<bonus id="books">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
A quick response to James Surowiecki's <i>The Wisdom of Crowds</i>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/surowieki.jpg" width="200" height="300" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
|
||
First off, I'm not dissing
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds">
|
||
this book.</a>
|
||
It's a good book, and Surowiecki was trying to tackle the same question I am:
|
||
<b>“why do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom?”</b>
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
Surowiecki's answer: crowds make good decisions when everybody is as independent as possible.
|
||
He gives the story of a county fair,
|
||
where the townsfolk were invited to guess the weight of an ox.
|
||
Surprisingly, the average of <i>all</i> their guesses was better than any <i>one</i> guess</i>.
|
||
But, here's the rub: the people have to guess <i>independently</i> of each other.
|
||
Otherwise,
|
||
they'd be influenced by earlier incorrect guesses,
|
||
and the average answer would be highly skewed.
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
But... I don't think "make everyone as independent as possible" is the full answer.
|
||
Even geniuses, who we mischaracterize as the most independent thinkers,
|
||
are deeply influenced by others. As Sir Isaac Newton said,
|
||
<i>“If I have seen further, it is by standing on the sholders of Giants.”</i>
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
So, which idea is correct?
|
||
Does wisdom come from thinking for yourself, or thinking with others?
|
||
The answer is: "yes".
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
So that's what I'll try to explain in this explorable explanation:
|
||
how to get that sweet spot between independence and interdependence —
|
||
that is, how to get a wise crowd.
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</bonus>
|
||
<bonus id="connections">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
What other kinds of connections are there?
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
For the sake of simplicity,
|
||
my simulations pretend that people can only be connected through friendships,
|
||
and that all friendships are equal.
|
||
But network scientists <i>do</i> consider other ways we can be connected, such as:
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/connection1.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>Directional connections.</b> Alice is the boss of Bob, but Bob is not the boss of Alice.
|
||
Carol is the parent of Dave, but Dave is not the parent of Carol.
|
||
"Boss" & "parent" are <i>directional</i> relationships:
|
||
the relationship only goes one way.
|
||
In contrast, "friends" is a <i>bidirectional</i> relationship:
|
||
the relationship goes both ways. (well, hopefully)
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/connection2.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>Weighted connections.</b> Elinor and Frankie are mere acquaintances.
|
||
George and Harry are Best Friends Forever.
|
||
Even though there's a "friendship" connection in both cases, the second one is stronger.
|
||
We say that these two connections have different "weights".
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/map.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
Just remember: <b>all these simulations are wrong.</b> The same way any map is "wrong".
|
||
You see the map on the left? Buildings aren't gray featureless blocks!
|
||
Words don't float above the city! However, maps are useful not <i>despite</i> being simplified,
|
||
but <i>because</i> they're simplified. Same goes for simulations, or any scientific theory.
|
||
Of <i>course</i> they're "wrong" — that's what makes them <i>useful</i>.
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</bonus>
|
||
<bonus id="contagions">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
What other kinds of contagions are there?
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
There are so, so many ways that network scientists can simulate "contagions"!
|
||
I picked the simplest one, for educational purposes.
|
||
But here's other ways you could do it:
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion1.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>Contagions with Randomness</b>.
|
||
Being "exposed" to a contagion doesn't <i>guarantee</i> you'll be infected,
|
||
it only makes it more <i>likely</i>.
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion2.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>People have different contagion thresholds.</b>
|
||
My simulations pretend that everyone has the same threshold for binge-drinking (50%) or
|
||
volunteering (25%) or misinformation (0%).
|
||
Of course, that's not true in real life, and you could make your sim reflect that.
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion3.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>An ecology of contagions.</b>
|
||
What if there were <i>multiple</i> contagions, with <i>different</i> thresholds?
|
||
For example, a simple "madness" contagion and a complex "wisdom" contagion.
|
||
If someone's infected with madness, can they still be infected with wisdom?
|
||
Or vice versa?
|
||
Can someone be infected with both?
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion4.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>Contagions that mutate and evolve.</b>
|
||
Ideas don't pass perfectly from one person to another the way a virus does.
|
||
Like a game of Telephone, the message gets mutated with each re-telling —
|
||
and sometimes the mutant will be more infectious than the original!
|
||
So, over time, ideas "evolve" to be more catchy, copy-able, contagious.
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</bonus>
|
||
<bonus id="further_reading">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
¡Quiero saber más! ¿Tienes más contenido interactivo?
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
This explorable explanation was just a springboard for your curiosity,
|
||
so you can dive deeper into a vast pool of knowledge!
|
||
Here's more stuff on networks or social systems:
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/connected.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>Book:</b>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
|
||
Connected</a>
|
||
by Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler (2009).
|
||
An accessible tour of how our networks affect our lives, for good or ill.
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/pdf/excerpt.pdf">
|
||
Here's an excerpt: Preface & Chapter 1
|
||
</a>
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/trust.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>Interactive:</b>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://ncase.me/trust/">
|
||
The Evolution of Trust</a> by Nicky Case (me) (2017).
|
||
A game about the game theory of how cooperation is built... or destroyed.
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/polygons.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>Interactive:</b>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://ncase.me/polygons/">
|
||
Parable of the Polygons</a> by Vi Hart and Nicky Case (also me) (2014).
|
||
A story about how harmless choices can create a harmful world.
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/ee.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
Or, if you just want to see a whole gallery of interactive edu-things, here's
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://explorabl.es/">
|
||
Explorable Explanations</a>,
|
||
a hub for learning through play!
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</bonus>
|
||
|
||
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
||
<!-- REFERENCES -->
|
||
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
||
|
||
<!--
|
||
Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE:
|
||
-->
|
||
|
||
<reference id="drunk">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did.”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1758185">
|
||
“Biases in the perception of drinking norms among college students”</a> by Baer et al (1991)
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="majority">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“The Majority Illusion”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147617">
|
||
“The Majority Illusion in Social Networks”</a> by Lerman et al (2016).
|
||
<br>
|
||
Related: <a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendship_paradox">
|
||
The Friendship Paradox</a>.
|
||
</div>
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="contagion">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“strong statistical evidence that
|
||
smoking, health, happiness, voting patterns, and cooperation levels
|
||
are all contagious”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
From Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's
|
||
wonderfully-written, layperson-accessible book,
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
|
||
Connected</a> (2009).
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="suicides">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“some evidence that suicides are [contagious], too”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/42000514?seq=4#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
||
“Suicide Contagion and the Reporting of Suicide: Recommendations from a National Workshop”</a>
|
||
by O'Carroll et al (1994), endorsed by the frickin' Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC).
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="shootings">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“some evidence that mass shootings are [contagious], too”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0117259">
|
||
“Contagion in Mass Killings and School Shootings”</a> by Towers et al (2015).
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
Also see: the
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.dontnamethem.org/">
|
||
Don't Name Them</a> campaign,
|
||
which urges that news outlets <i>DO NOT</i> air mass murderers' names, manifestos, and social media feeds.
|
||
This spreads the contagion.
|
||
Instead, news outlets should focus on the victims, first responders, civilian heroes,
|
||
and the grieving, healing community.
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="subprime">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“The world's financial institutions fell for such a cascade in 2008.”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://newrepublic.com/article/63023/wall-streets-lemmings">
|
||
“Lemmings of Wall Street”</a> by Cass Sunstein, is a quick, non-technical read.
|
||
Published in Oct 2008, right in the wake of the crash.
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="complex">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“the complex contagion theory.”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.unc.edu/~fbaum/teaching/articles/Granovetter_AJS_1978.pdf">
|
||
“Threshold Models of Collective Behavior”</a> by Granovetter (1978)
|
||
was the first time, as far as I know, anyone described a "complex contagion" model.
|
||
(although he didn't use that specific name)
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0180802">
|
||
“Evidence for complex contagion models of social contagion from observational data”</a>
|
||
by Sprague & House (2017)
|
||
shows that complex contagions do, in fact, exist. (at least, in the social media data they looked at)
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
Finally,
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0403699.pdf">
|
||
“Universal behavior in a generalized model of contagion”</a> by Dodds & Watts (2004)
|
||
proposes a model that unifies <i>all</i> kinds of contagions:
|
||
simple and complex, biological and social!
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="possum">
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“the possum has 13 nipples”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<div>
|
||
arranged in a ring of 12 nipples, plus one in the middle
|
||
</div>
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="groupthink">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“groupthink”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
This Orwell-inspired phrase was coined by Irving L. Janis in 1971.
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100401033524/http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/macdonald/GroupThink.pdf">
|
||
In his original article</a>,
|
||
Janis investigates cases of groupthink, lists its causes, and — thankfully —
|
||
some possible remedies.
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="social_capital">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“bonding and bridging social capital”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
These two types of social capital — "bonding" and "bridging" —
|
||
were named by Robert Putnam in his insightful 2000 book,
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://bowlingalone.com/">
|
||
Bowling Alone</a>. His discovery:
|
||
across almost <i>all</i> empircal measures of social connectiveness,
|
||
Americans are more alone than ever.
|
||
Golly.
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="bridge">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“bridging social capital has a sweet spot”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://sociology.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/the_strength_of_weak_ties_and_exch_w-gans.pdf">
|
||
“The Strength of Weak Ties”</a> by Granovetter (1973)
|
||
showed that connections across groups helps spread simple contagions (like information),
|
||
but
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/521848?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
||
“Complex Contagions and the Weakness of Long Ties”</a> by Centola & Macy (2007)
|
||
showed that connections across groups may not help complex contagions,
|
||
and it fact, can hurt their spread!
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="small_world">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“the small world network”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
The idea of the "small world" was popularized by
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/2786545">Travers & Milgram's 1969 experiment</a>,
|
||
which showed that, on average, any two random people in the United States
|
||
were just six friendships apart — "six degrees of separation"!
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
The small-world network got more mathematical meat on its bones with
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://leonidzhukov.net/hse/2014/socialnetworks/papers/watts-collective_dynamics-nature_1998.pdf">
|
||
“Collective dynamics of small-world networks”</a> by Watts & Strogatz (1998),
|
||
which proposed an algorithm for creating networks
|
||
with both low average path length (low degree of separation)
|
||
and high clustering (friends have lots of mutual friends) —
|
||
that is, a network that hits the sweet spot!
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
You can also play with
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://worrydream.com/ScientificCommunicationAsSequentialArt/">
|
||
the visual, interactive adaptation of that paper</a> by Bret Victor (2011).
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="swn_neurons">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“[small world networks] describe how our neurons are connected”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17079517">
|
||
“Small-world brain networks”</a> by Bassett & Bullmore (2006).
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="swn_creativity">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“[small world networks] give rise to collective creativity”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/432782?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
||
“Collaboration and Creativity: The Small World Problem”</a> by Uzzi & Spiro (2005).
|
||
This paper analyzed the social network of the Broadway scene over time,
|
||
and discovered that, yup, the network's most creative when it's a "small world" network!
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="swn_social_physics">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“[small world networks] give rise to collective problem-solving”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
See
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://socialphysics.media.mit.edu/">
|
||
“Social Physics”</a> by MIT Professor Alex "Sandy" Pentland (2014)
|
||
for a data-based approach to collective intelligence.
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="swn_jfk">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“[small world networks] helped John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war!”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
Besides the NASA Challenger explosion, the most notorious example of groupthink
|
||
was the Bay of Pigs fiasco.
|
||
In 1961, US President John F. Kennedy and his team of advisors thought
|
||
— for some reason —
|
||
it would be a good idea to secretly invade Cuba and overthrow Fidel Castro.
|
||
They failed.
|
||
Actually, worse than failed: it led to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962,
|
||
<i>the closest the world had ever been to full-scale nuclear war.</i>
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
Yup, JFK really screwed up on that one.
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
But, having learnt some hard lessons from the Bay of Pigs fiasco,
|
||
JFK re-organized his team to avoid groupthink.
|
||
Among many things, he:
|
||
1) actively encouraged people to voice criticism,
|
||
thus lowering the "contagion threshold" for alternate ideas.
|
||
And
|
||
2) he broke his team up into sub-groups before reconvening,
|
||
which gave their group a "small world network"-like design!
|
||
Together, this arrangement allowed for a healthy diversity of opinion,
|
||
but without being too fractured — a wisdom of crowds.
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
And so, with the same <i>individuals</i> who decided the Bay of Pigs,
|
||
but re-arranged <i>collectively</i> to decide on the Cuban Missile Crisis...
|
||
JFK's team was able to reach a peaceful agreement with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev.
|
||
The Soviets would remove their missiles from Cuba, and in return,
|
||
the US would promise not to invade Cuba again.
|
||
(and also agreed, in secret, to remove the US missiles from Turkey)
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
And that's the story of how all of humanity almost died.
|
||
But a small world network saved the day! Sort of.
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
You can read more about this
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://hbr.org/2013/11/how-john-f-kennedy-changed-decision-making">
|
||
on Harvard Business Review</a>,
|
||
or from
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100401033524/http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/macdonald/GroupThink.pdf">
|
||
the original article on groupthink</a>.
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="three_degrees">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“we influence [...] our friends' friends' friends!”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
Again, from Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's
|
||
wonderful book,
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
|
||
Connected</a> (2009).
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="flatter">
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“be skeptical of ideas that flatter you”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<div>
|
||
yes, including the ideas in <i>this</i> explorable explanation.
|
||
</div>
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="sandbox">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
★ Juego libre ★
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
Los atajos del teclado (1, 2, espacio, retroceso)
|
||
funcionan en <i>todos</i> los puzles, ¡no sólo aquí!
|
||
En serio, prueba yendo a otro capítulo y podrás editar
|
||
la simulación en un periquete.
|
||
De hecho así es como <i>yo</i> he creado todos estos puzles. ¡A pasarlo bien!
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="supporters" hidden=yes large=yes>
|
||
<div>
|
||
A
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.patreon.com/ncase">mis patronos en Patreon</a>:
|
||
Muchísisisimas gracias.
|
||
Vuestra generosidad me da la vida y hace que pueda pagar la luz, <i>tal cual</i>,
|
||
dándome la suficiente libertad creativa como para preparar estos juegos raritos de mates y ciencias sociales.
|
||
¡De verdad de la buena, gracias!
|
||
</div>
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="playtesters" hidden=yes large=yes>
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
¡Gracias a todos los que habéis ayudado a probar y a jugar a <i>sabiduría de masas</i>
|
||
según se ha ido haciendo más grande, más listo y más guapo!
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
<b>En el prototipo:</b>
|
||
<br>
|
||
Maria ·
|
||
Monica Srivastava
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
<b>En la alfa:</b>
|
||
<br>
|
||
Glen Chiacchieri ·
|
||
Kalli Repzeti ·
|
||
Mali Akmanalp ·
|
||
Toph Tucker
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
<b>En la beta:</b>
|
||
<br>
|
||
Alex Dytrych ·
|
||
Amit Patel ·
|
||
Cassandra McClure ·
|
||
Catherine Ray ·
|
||
Josh Comeau ·
|
||
Kayle Sawyer ·
|
||
Matthew Conlen ·
|
||
Srini Kadamati ·
|
||
Vanessa Shen ·
|
||
Wick Perry
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
</reference>
|
||
|
||
</span>
|
||
|
||
<!--
|
||
|
||
And that's it! That's the last of what needed to a TRANSLATE
|
||
|
||
Thank you so, so much for doing this again, wow.
|
||
|
||
Finally, go to "translations.txt" and follow the instructions there,
|
||
in order to let this game "know" your translation exists.
|
||
|
||
--> |