1618 lines
49 KiB
HTML
1618 lines
49 KiB
HTML
<!--
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THE WISDOM AND/OR MADNESS OF CROWDS
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by Nicky Case | apr 2018
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MY "WHY" FOR MAKING THIS:
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+ to build a foundation for further curiosity about networks, group dynamics
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+ to practice teaching with problem-solving, a pre-req for skills
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+ to instill transcendent sense of "fundamentally people", of Humanity's Brain <3
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<!-- The chapters -->
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<div chapter="Introduction">
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<span>0</span>
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<span>0. Introduction</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Networks">
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<span>1</span>
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<span>1. Connections</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Simple">
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<span>2</span>
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<span>2. Contagions</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Complex">
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<span>3</span>
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<span>3. Complex Contagions</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="BB">
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<span>4</span>
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<span>4. Bonding & Bridging</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="SmallWorld">
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<span>5</span>
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<span>5. It's A Small World</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Conclusion">
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<span>6</span>
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<span>6. In Conclusion...</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Credits">
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<span>7</span>
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<span>7. Credits</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Sandbox">
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<span>★</span>
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<span>★ Sandbox Mode! ★</span>
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</div>
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<span>?</span>
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<span>Bonus Boxes!</span>
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<span style="margin-top: 7px; font-size: 35px;">*</span>
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<span>Links & References</span>
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font-size: 16px;
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<words id="preloader_title">
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<div style="font-size: 30px;">
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<span>the</span>
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<br>
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<span style="font-size: 60px;letter-spacing: 4px;">WISDOM</span>
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<span style="position:relative;top: -10px;">and/or</span>
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<span style="font-size: 60px;">MADNESS</span>
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<br>
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<span style="position: relative;top: -11px;">of</span>
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<br>
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<span style="font-size: 100px;line-height: 80px;position: relative;top: -15px;">CROWDS</span>
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</div>
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<div style="color:#999">
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playing time: 30 min • by nicky case, april 2018
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</div>
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</words>
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<words id="preloader_button">
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<next></next>
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</words>
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<words id="preloader_loading">
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loading...
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</words>
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<words id="preloader_play">
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let's play! →
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</words>
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<!-- Introduction -->
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<words id="intro">
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<br><br>
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Sir Isaac Newton was pretty sure he was a
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<br>
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smart cookie. I mean, after inventing calculus and
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<br>
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a theory of gravity, he should be clever enough to do
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<br>
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some financial investing, right? Anyway, long story short, he
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<br>
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lost $4,600,000 (in today's dollars) in the nationwide
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<br>
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speculation frenzy known as the South Sea Bubble of 1720.
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<br><br>
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As Mr. Newton later said: <i>“I can calculate the motion of
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<br>
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heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.”</i>
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<next>yeah sucks for him →</next>
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</words>
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<words id="intro_2">
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<div style="height:0.5em"></div>
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Of course, that's not the only
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<br>
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time markets, institutions, or entire
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<br>
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democracies went haywire — the <i>madness</i> of
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<br>
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crowds. And yet, just when you lose hope in humanity,
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<br>
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you see citizens coordinating to rescue each other in
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<br>
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hurricanes, communities creating solutions to problems,
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<br>
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people fighting for a better world — the <i>wisdom</i> of crowds!
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<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
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<b>But <i>why</i> do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom?</b> No theory
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<br>
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can explain everything, but I think a new field of study,
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<br>
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<b>network science</b>, can guide us! And its core idea is this: to
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<br>
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understand crowds, we should look not at the <i>individual
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<br>
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people</i>, but at...
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<next>...their <i>connections.</i> →</next>
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</words>
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<!-- Networks -->
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<words id="networks_tutorial_start">
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<b>Let's draw a network!</b>
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Each connection represents a friendship between two people:
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</words>
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<words id="networks_tutorial_connect">
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draw to connect
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</words>
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<words id="networks_tutorial_disconnect">
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scratch to disconnect
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</words>
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<words id="networks_tutorial_end">
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when you're done doodling and playing around,
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<next wiggle>let's continue →</next>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_threshold">
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Now, social connections are for more than just making pretty pictures.
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People <i>look to</i> their social connections to understand their world.
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For example, people look to their peers to
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find out <b>what % of their friends</b> (not counting themselves) are,
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say, binge-drinkers. <icon yellow></icon>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_threshold_instruction">
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<b>Draw/erase connections, and see what happens! →</b>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_threshold_end">
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<next>cool, got it</next>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_pre_puzzle">
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However, networks can <i>fool</i> people.
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Just like how the earth seems flat because we're on it,
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people may get wrong ideas about society because they're <i>in</i> it.
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<bon id="connections"></bon>
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<br>
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For example, a 1991 study<ref id="drunk"></ref> showed that
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“virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did.”
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But that seems impossible!
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How can that be?
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Well, you're about to invent the answer yourself, by drawing a network.
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It's time to...
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<next>FOOL EVERYONE →</next>
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</words>
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<words id="optional_reading">
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<div style="position:absolute; top:-5px;">
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<i>optional</i> extra bonus notes! ↑
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</div>
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<div style="position:absolute; left:216px; top:10px;">
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↓ links and references
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</div>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_puzzle">
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<b style="font-size:2em">PUZZLE TIME!</b>
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<br>
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Fool <i>everyone</i> into thinking
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the majority of their friends (50% threshold) are binge-drinkers <icon yellow></icon>
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(even though binge-drinkers are outnumbered 2-to-1!)
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</words>
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<words id="networks_puzzle_metric">
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<b>FOOLED:</b>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_puzzle_metric_2">
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out of 9 people
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</words>
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<words id="networks_puzzle_end">
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Congrats! You manipulated a group of students into believing
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in the prevalance of an incredibly unhealthy social norm! Good going!
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<next wiggle>...uh. thanks?</next>
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</words>
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<words id="networks_post_puzzle">
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What you just created is called The Majority Illusion<ref id="majority"></ref>,
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which also explains why people think their political views are consensus,
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or why extremism seems more common than it actually is.
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<i>Madness.</i>
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<bon id="books"></bon>
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But people don't just passively <i>observe</i> others' ideas and behaviors,
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they actively <i>copy</i> them.
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So now, let's look at something network scientists call...
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<next>“Contagions!” →</next>
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</words>
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<!-- Simple Contagions -->
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<words id="simple_simple">
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<i>Let's put aside the "threshold" thing for now.</i>
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Below: we have a person <icon red></icon> with some information.
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Some <i>mis</i>information. "Fake news", as the cool kids say.
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And every day, that person spreads the rumor, like a virus, to their friends.
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And they spread it to <i>their</i> friends. And so on.
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<br>
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<b>
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Start the simulation! ↓
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(p.s: you can't draw <i>while</i> the sim's running)
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</b>
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</words>
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<words id="simple_simple_2">
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Note: despite the negative name, "contagions" can be good or bad (or neutral or ambiguous).
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There's strong statistical evidence<ref id="contagion"></ref> that
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smoking, health, happiness, voting patterns, and cooperation levels
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are all "contagious" --
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and even some evidence that suicides<ref id="suicides"></ref> and mass shootings<ref id="shootings"></ref> are, too.
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</words>
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<words id="simple_simple_end">
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<next wiggle>well that's depressing →</next>
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</words>
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<words id="simple_cascade">
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Indeed it is.
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Anyway, <b>PUZZLE TIME!</b>
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<br>
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Draw a network & run the simulation,
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so that <i>everyone</i> gets infected with the "contagion".
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<br>
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(new rule: you can't cut the <i>thick</i> connections)
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</words>
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<words id="simple_cascade_end">
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<next wiggle>fan-flipping-tastic →</next>
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</words>
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<words id="simple_post_cascade">
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This madness-spreading is called an <b>"information cascade"</b>.
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Mr. Newton fell for such a cascade in 1720.
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The world's financial institutions fell for such a cascade in 2008.<ref id="subprime"></ref>
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<br><br>
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However: <i>this simulation is wrong.</i>
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Most ideas <i>don't</i> spread like viruses.
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For many beliefs and behaviors, you need to be "exposed" to the contagion more than just once
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in order to be "infected".
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So, network scientists have come up with a new, better way to
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describe how ideas/behaviors spread, and they call it...
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<next wiggle>“<i>Complex</i> Contagions!” →</next>
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</words>
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||
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<!-- Complex Contagions -->
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<words id="complex_complex">
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Let's bring back "thresholds", and the binge-drinking <icon yellow></icon> example!
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When you played with this the first time, people didn't change their behavior.
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<br><br>
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Now, let's simulate what happens if people <i>do</i> start drinking
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<i>when 50%+ of their friends do!</i>
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<b>Before you start the sim, ask yourself what you think <i>should</i> happen.</b>
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<br><br>
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<b>Now, run the sim, and see what actually happens! →</b>
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</words>
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<words id="complex_complex_2">
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<span style="line-height:1.3em">
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Unlike our earlier "fake news" <icon red></icon> contagion,
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this contagion <icon yellow></icon> does <i>not</i> spread to everyone!
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The first few people get "infected", because although they're only exposed to one
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binge-drinker, that binge-drinker is 50% of their friends. (yeah, they're lonely)
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In contrast, the person near the end of the chain did <i>not</i> get "infected",
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||
because while they were exposed to a binge-drinking friend,
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they did not pass the 50%+ threshold.
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||
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||
<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
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||
|
||
The <i>relative</i> % of "infected" friends matters.
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<i>That's</i> the difference between the <b>complex contagion</b> theory,
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||
and our naive it-spreads-like-a-virus <b>simple contagion</b> theory.
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||
(you could say "simple contagions" are just contagions with a "more than 0%" infection threshold)
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||
|
||
<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
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||
|
||
However, contagions aren't necessarily bad —
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so enough about crowd <i>madness</i>, what about...
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<next>...crowd <i>wisdom?</i></next>
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||
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||
</span>
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</words>
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<words id="complex_complex_3">
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Here, we have a person <icon blue></icon> who volunteers to... I don't know,
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rescue people in hurricanes, or tutor underprivileged kids in their local community, or something cool like that.
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Point is, it's a "good" complex contagion.
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This time, though, let's say the threshold is only 25% —
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people are willing to volunteer, but only if 25% or more of their friends do so, too.
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Hey, goodwill needs a bit of social encouragement.
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<br><br>
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<b>← Get everyone "infected" with the good vibes!</b>
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</words>
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<words id="complex_complex_3_end">
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<b>NOTE:</b> Volunteering is just <i>one</i> of many complex contagions!
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Others include: voter turnout, lifestyle habits,
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career choices, challenging your beliefs,
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taking time to understand a issue deeply — basically, anything
|
||
that needs more than one "exposure", and some social encouragement.
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<br><br>
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(So what's an example of a <i>simple</i> contagion, that only needs one exposure to "infect" someone?
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||
Usually: bits of trivia, like, "the possum has 13 nipples")
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||
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||
<br><br>
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||
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Now, to <i>really</i> show the power and weirdness of complex contagions, let's revisit...
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||
|
||
<next>...an earlier puzzle →</next>
|
||
|
||
</words>
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<words id="complex_cascade">
|
||
Remember this? This time, with a <i>complex</i> contagion <icon blue></icon>, it'll be a bit tougher...
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||
<br>
|
||
<b>Try to "infect" everyone with complex wisdom! ↓</b>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_cascade_feel_free">
|
||
(feel free to just hit 'start' and <i>try</i> as many solutions as you want)
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_cascade_end">
|
||
<next wiggle>HOT DANG →</next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_post_cascade">
|
||
Now, you may think that you just need to keep adding connections to spread any contagion,
|
||
"complex" or "simple", good or bad, wise or mad.
|
||
But is that really so? Well, let's revisit...
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="complex_post_cascade_end">
|
||
<next wiggle>...another earlier puzzle →</next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_prevent">
|
||
If you hit "start" below, the complex contagion <icon blue></icon> will just spread to everyone.
|
||
No surprise there.
|
||
But now, let's do the <i>opposite</i> of everything we've done before:
|
||
<b>draw a network to <i>prevent</i> the contagion from spreading to everyone! ↓</b>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_prevent_2">
|
||
You see?
|
||
While more connections will always help the spread of <i>simple</i> ideas,
|
||
<b>more connections can hurt the spread of <i>complex</i> ideas!</b>
|
||
(makes you wonder about the internet, hm?)
|
||
And this isn't just a theoretical problem. This can be a matter of life...
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_prevent_end">
|
||
<next wiggle>...or death. →</next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_groupthink">
|
||
|
||
The people at NASA were smart cookies.
|
||
I mean, they'd used Newton's theories to get us to the moon.
|
||
Anyway, long story short, in 1986,
|
||
<i>despite warnings from the engineers</i>,
|
||
they launched the <i>Challenger</i>,
|
||
which blew up and killed 7 people.
|
||
The immediate cause:
|
||
it was too cold that morning.
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
||
|
||
The less immediate cause: the managers ignored the engineers' warnings.
|
||
Why? Because of <b>groupthink</b><ref id="groupthink"></ref>.
|
||
When a group is <i>too</i> closely knit, (as they tend to be at the top of institutions)
|
||
they become resistant to complex ideas that challenge their beliefs, or ego.
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
||
|
||
So, that's how institutions can fall to crowd madness.
|
||
But how can we "design" for crowd <i>wisdom?</i>
|
||
In short, two words:
|
||
|
||
<next>Bonding & Bridging →</next>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Bonding & Bridging -->
|
||
|
||
<words id="bonding_1">
|
||
← Too few connections, and an idea can't spread.
|
||
<br>
|
||
Too many connections, and you get groupthink. →
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="bonding_2">
|
||
<b>
|
||
Draw a group that hits the sweet spot:
|
||
just connected enough to spread a complex idea!
|
||
↓
|
||
</b>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="bonding_end">
|
||
Simple enough!
|
||
The number of connections <i>within</i> a group is called <b>bonding social capital</b><ref id="social_capital"></ref>.
|
||
But what about the connections...
|
||
<next wiggle>...<i>between</i> groups?</next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="bridging_1">
|
||
As you may have already guessed,
|
||
the number of connections <i>between</i> groups is called
|
||
<b>bridging social capital</b>.
|
||
This is important, because it helps groups break out of their insular echo chambers!
|
||
<br>
|
||
<b>Build a bridge, to "infect" everyone with complex wisdom:</b>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="bridging_end">
|
||
Like bonding, there's a sweet spot for bridging, too.<ref id="bridge"></ref>
|
||
(extra challenge: try drawing a bridge so thick that the complex contagion
|
||
<i>can't</i> pass through it!)
|
||
Now that we know how to "design" connections <i>within</i> and <i>between</i> groups, let's...
|
||
<next wiggle>...do BOTH at the same time!</next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="bb_1">
|
||
|
||
<b style="font-size:2em">FINAL PUZZLE!</b>
|
||
<br>
|
||
Draw connections within groups (bonding) and between groups (bridging)
|
||
to spread wisdom to the whole crowd:
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="bb_2">
|
||
|
||
Congrats, you've just drawn a very special kind of network!
|
||
Networks with the right mix of bonding and bridging
|
||
are profoundly important, and they're called...
|
||
<next wiggle>“Small World Networks” →</next>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="bb_small_world_1">
|
||
|
||
<i>"Unity without uniformity". "Diversity without division". "E Pluribus Unum: out of many, one".</i>
|
||
<br>
|
||
No matter how it's phrased,
|
||
people across times and cultures often arrive at the same piece of wisdom:
|
||
<b>
|
||
a healthy society needs a sweet spot of bonds <i>within</i> groups
|
||
and bridges <i>between</i> groups.
|
||
</b>
|
||
That is:
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="bb_small_world_2">
|
||
Not this...
|
||
<br>
|
||
(because ideas can't spread)
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="bb_small_world_3">
|
||
nor this...
|
||
<br>
|
||
(because you'll get groupthink)
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="bb_small_world_4">
|
||
...but <i>THIS:</i>
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="bb_small_world_5">
|
||
|
||
Network scientists now have a mathematical definition for this ancient wisdom:
|
||
the <b>small world network</b><ref id="small_world"></ref>.
|
||
This optimal mix of bonding+bridging describes how
|
||
our neurons are connected<ref id="swn_neurons"></ref>,
|
||
fosters collective creativity<ref id="swn_creativity"></ref>
|
||
and problem-solving<ref id="swn_social_physics"></ref>,
|
||
and even once helped US President John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war!<ref id="swn_jfk"></ref>
|
||
So, yeah, small worlds are a big deal.
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="bb_small_world_end">
|
||
<next>ok, let's wrap this up... →</next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Sandbox -->
|
||
|
||
<words id="sandbox_caption">
|
||
<b>NOTE: "Sandbox Mode" is totally optional!</b>
|
||
Feel free to skip it, or play around.<ref id="sandbox"></ref>
|
||
Whenever you're done, let's recap...
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_next">
|
||
<next>what we learnt today!</next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="sandbox_contagion">
|
||
Contagion:
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_contagion_simple">
|
||
simple
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_contagion_complex">
|
||
complex
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_color_chooser">
|
||
The Contagion's Color:
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_tool_chooser">
|
||
Select a tool...
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="sandbox_tool_pencil">
|
||
Draw Network
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_tool_add">
|
||
Add Person
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_tool_add_infected">
|
||
Add "Infected"
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_tool_move">
|
||
Drag Person
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_tool_delete">
|
||
Delete Person
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_tool_clear">
|
||
<b>CLEAR IT ALL</b>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="sandbox_shortcuts_label">
|
||
(...or, use keyboard shortcuts!)
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="sandbox_shortcuts">
|
||
[1]: Add Person [2]: Add "Infected"
|
||
<br>
|
||
[Space]: Drag [Backspace]: Delete
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Conclusion -->
|
||
|
||
<words id="conclusion_1">
|
||
|
||
<div style="font-size: 30px;">
|
||
IN CONCLUSION: it's all about...
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div style="
|
||
width: 100%;
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
font-size: 88px;
|
||
top: 20px;
|
||
line-height: 100px;
|
||
">
|
||
Contagions & Connections
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div style="
|
||
width: 710px;
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
top: 125px;
|
||
left: 250px;
|
||
">
|
||
<b>Contagions:</b>
|
||
Like how neurons pass signals in a brain,
|
||
people pass beliefs & behaviors in a society.
|
||
Not only do we influence our friends,
|
||
we also influence our friends' friends, and even our friends' friends' friends!<ref id="three_degrees"></ref>
|
||
(“be the change you wanna see in the world” etc etc)
|
||
But, like neurons, it's not just signals that matter, it's also...
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div style="
|
||
width: 710px;
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
top: 275px;
|
||
left: 250px;
|
||
">
|
||
<b>Connections:</b>
|
||
Too few connections and complex ideas can't spread.
|
||
Too <i>many</i> connections and complex ideas get crushed by groupthink.
|
||
The trick is to build a small world network, the optimal mix of
|
||
bonding and bridging: <i>e pluribus unum.</i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div style="
|
||
width: 400px;
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
top: 395px;
|
||
right: 0px;
|
||
text-align: right;
|
||
">
|
||
So, what about our question from the very beginning?
|
||
Why <i>do</i> some crowds turn to...
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div style="
|
||
width: 300px;
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
top: 460px;
|
||
right: 0px;
|
||
">
|
||
<next>...wisdom and/or madness?</next>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="conclusion_2">
|
||
<span style="line-height:1.4em;">
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.5em"></div>
|
||
|
||
From Newton to NASA to
|
||
<br>
|
||
network science, we've covered a lot here
|
||
<br>
|
||
today. Long story short, the madness of crowds
|
||
<br>
|
||
is not necessarily due to the <i>individual people</i>, but due
|
||
<br>
|
||
to how we're trapped in a network's sticky web.
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
||
|
||
That <i>does NOT</i> mean abandoning personal responsibility, for
|
||
<br>
|
||
we're also the <i>weavers</i> of that web. So, improve your contagions:
|
||
<br>
|
||
be skeptical of ideas that flatter you<ref id="flatter"></ref>, spend time understanding
|
||
<br>
|
||
complex ideas. And, improve your connections: bond with similar
|
||
<br>
|
||
folk, but also build bridges across cultural/political divides.
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
||
|
||
We can weave a wise web. Sure, it's harder than doodling
|
||
<br>
|
||
lines on a screen...
|
||
|
||
<next>...but so, so worth it.</next>
|
||
|
||
</span>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="conclusion_3">
|
||
<i>
|
||
“The great triumphs and tragedies of history are caused,
|
||
not by people being fundamentally good or fundamentally bad,
|
||
but by people being fundamentally people.”
|
||
</i>
|
||
<br>
|
||
<span style="position:relative; top:5px">~</span> Neil Gaiman & Terry Pratchett
|
||
<div style="height:0.8em"></div>
|
||
<next small><3</next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Credits -->
|
||
|
||
<words id="credits">
|
||
CREDITS
|
||
<br>
|
||
CREDITS
|
||
<br>
|
||
CREDITS
|
||
<br>
|
||
CREDITS
|
||
<br>
|
||
CREDITS
|
||
<br>
|
||
<bon id="further_reading"></bon>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- x. misc -->
|
||
<words id="WIN">
|
||
WIN
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sim_start">
|
||
start simulation
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sim_stop">
|
||
reset & re-draw
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="translations_exist">
|
||
Fan-made translations:
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="translations_do_not_exist">
|
||
<!-- There's no need to translate this line since, you know, -->
|
||
<!-- it'll only show up if no translations exist -->
|
||
What the, no fan-made translations exist yet?!
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="translations_add">
|
||
(add your own!)
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
||
<!-- BONUS BOXES -->
|
||
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
||
|
||
<bonus id="books">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
A quick response to James Surowiecki's <i>The Wisdom of Crowds</i>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sdas" width="200" height="300" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
|
||
First off, I'm not dissing
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds">
|
||
this book.</a>
|
||
It's a good book, and Surowiecki was trying to tackle the same question I am:
|
||
<b>“why do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom?”</b>
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
Surowiecki's answer: crowds make good decisions when everybody is as independent as possible.
|
||
He gives the story of a game at a county fair,
|
||
where the rabble were invited to guess the weight of an ox.
|
||
Surprisingly, the average of all their guesses <i>was better than any one individual guess</i>.
|
||
But, here's the rub: the people have to guess <i>independently</i> of each other.
|
||
If people knew the previous guesses before they put forth their own guess,
|
||
they'd be influenced by those guesses, and all the results would be skewed.
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
But... I don't think "make everyone be as independent as possible" is quite right.
|
||
Even geniuses, who we tend to mischaracterize as the most independent thinkers,
|
||
are actually influenced deeply by others. As Sir Isaac Newton said,
|
||
<i>“If I have seen further, it is by standing on the sholders of Giants.”</i>
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
So, which idea is correct?
|
||
Does wisdom come from thinking for yourself, or thinking with others?
|
||
As is usually the case with these kind of questions, the answer is: "yes".
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
So that's what I'll try to explain in this explorable explanation:
|
||
how to get that sweet spot between independence and interdependence —
|
||
that is, how to get a wise crowd.
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</bonus>
|
||
<bonus id="connections">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
What other kinds of connections are there?
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
For the sake of simplicity, all the simulations here only have one kind of connection,
|
||
friendship, and all the friendships are equally strong.
|
||
But there's other kinds of connections that network scientists think about!
|
||
For example:
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sdas" width="150" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>Directional connections.</b> Alice is the boss of Bob, but Bob is not the boss of Alice.
|
||
Carol is the parent of Dave, but Dave is not the parent of Carol.
|
||
Therefore, "boss" & "parent" are <i>directional</i> relationships:
|
||
the relationship only goes one way.
|
||
In contrast, "friends" is a <i>bidirectional</i> relationship:
|
||
the relationship goes both ways. (well, hopefully)
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sdas" width="150" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>Weighted connections.</b> Elinor and Frankie are "friends", but not that close.
|
||
George and Harry are super-duper Best Friends Forever.
|
||
Even though there's a friendship connection in both cases, the second one is a stronger:
|
||
the connections have different "weights".
|
||
(The "weights" matter when we think about, say, how people influence each other.
|
||
Best Friends will influence each other more than casual acquaintances.)
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sdas" width="150" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
Just remember: all the simulations in this game are wrong. The same way any map is "wrong".
|
||
You see the map on the left? Buildings aren't actually gray featureless blocks!
|
||
Words don't float above the city! However, maps are useful not <i>despite</i> being simplified,
|
||
but <i>because</i> they're simplified. Same goes for simulations, or any scientific theory.
|
||
Of <i>course</i> they're "wrong" — that's what makes them <i>useful</i>.
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</bonus>
|
||
<bonus id="contagions">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
What other kinds of contagions are there?
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
There's so, so many ways that network scientists can simulate "contagions".
|
||
I'm just picking the simplest one, for educational purposes.
|
||
But, for completeness, here's other ways you could simulate contagions:
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sdas" width="150" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>Contagions with Randomness</b>. Instead of "if your friend is infected, you'll get infected",
|
||
you could simulate "if your friend is infected, you'll get infected <i>with an X% chance</i>".
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sdas" width="150" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>People have different contagion thresholds.</b>
|
||
In this simulation, I'm pretending everyone has the same threshold for binge-drinking (50%) or
|
||
volunteering (25%) or misinformation (0%). That's not true in real life, of course,
|
||
and you could make your simulation reflect that.
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sdas" width="150" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>An ecology of contagions.</b> This is actually cutting-edge research,
|
||
and I'm not entirely sure how one would do this.
|
||
In my simulations, only one contagion is spreading at a time.
|
||
But what if there were <i>multiple</i> contagions, with <i>different</i> thresholds?
|
||
For example, a simple "madness" contagion and a complex "wisdom" contagion.
|
||
If someone's infected with madness, can they still be infected with wisdom?
|
||
Or vice versa?
|
||
Can someone be infected with both?
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sdas" width="150" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>Contagions that mutate and evolve.</b>
|
||
Ideas don't pass perfectly from one person to another the way a virus genome does.
|
||
Like a game of Telephone, the message gets mutated with each re-telling.
|
||
Sometimes the mutant will be more contagious than the original!
|
||
And so, over time,
|
||
ideas "evolve" to be more digestible,
|
||
urban legends "evolve" to be more shocking,
|
||
habits and behaviors "evolve" to be more copy-able.
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</bonus>
|
||
<bonus id="further_reading">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
Further Reading
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
This explorable explanation was just a springboard for your curiosity,
|
||
so you can dive deeper into a vast pool of knowledge!
|
||
So, here's two of my favorite things on networks:
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sdas" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>Book:</b>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
|
||
Connected</a>
|
||
by Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler (2009).
|
||
A layperson-friendly yet rigorous tour of how networks affect our lives,
|
||
for good and ill. They summarize the science, and also present some of their original findings,
|
||
like the "Three Degrees of Influence":
|
||
you affect not just your friends, but your friends' friends, and your friends' friends' friends!
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/pdf/excerpt.pdf">
|
||
Here's a link to an excerpt.
|
||
</a>
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sdas" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>Interactive:</b>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://worrydream.com/ScientificCommunicationAsSequentialArt/">
|
||
Collective Dynamics of Small World Networks</a>,
|
||
original paper by Watts & Strogatz (1998),
|
||
turned into interactive visuals by Bret Victor in 2011.
|
||
Slightly technical, but it's a lot easier to understand when
|
||
paired with pictures you can play with!
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
Alternatively, if you want to play more explorable explanations about society,
|
||
(and not necessarily about networks),
|
||
<b>check out these other interactives I've made!</b>
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sdas" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://mrpandey.github.io/d3graphTheory/">
|
||
The Evolution of Trust</a> by Nicky Case (2017).
|
||
This is a game about the game theory of how cooperation arises (or not).
|
||
You first play a game of trust,
|
||
then play a meta-game of that, then a meta-meta-game of that...
|
||
and discover what leads people to trust each other, or trust no one.
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sdas" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://mrpandey.github.io/d3graphTheory/">
|
||
Parable of the Polygons</a> by Vi Hart and Nicky Case (2014).
|
||
A story about how harmless choices can create a harmful world.
|
||
Based off a Nobel Prize-winning game theorist's work,
|
||
this interactive shows how discrimination and diversity can arise from the bottom up.
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</bonus>
|
||
|
||
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
||
<!-- REFERENCES -->
|
||
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
||
|
||
<reference id="drunk">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did.”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1758185">
|
||
“Biases in the perception of drinking norms among college students”</a> by Baer et al (1991).
|
||
The study finds that students greatly overestimate how much their peers drink.
|
||
And in other news, water is wet and sky is blue.
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="majority">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“The Majority Illusion”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147617">
|
||
“The Majority Illusion in Social Networks”</a> by Lerman et al (2016).
|
||
|
||
In this paper, they found that the majority illusion is strongest in friendship networks
|
||
with “heterogeneous degree distribution and disassortative structure.”
|
||
Or, in Normal Human Words: when there are wide differences (heterogeneous)
|
||
in the # of friends each individual person has (degree),
|
||
and when low-friend people are friends with high-friend people (disassortative).
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
Another cool, related illusion:
|
||
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/04/economist-explains-why-friends-more-popular-paradox">
|
||
The Friendship Paradox</a>,
|
||
|
||
which is the empirical finding that, on average, your friends will have more friends than you do.
|
||
I always used to feel lonely... but now, I have a <i>mathematical</i> excuse for feeling lonely! Hooray!
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="contagion">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“strong statistical evidence that
|
||
smoking, health, happiness, voting patterns, and cooperation levels
|
||
are all contagious”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
This is all laid out in Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's
|
||
well-written, layperson-friendly book,
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
|
||
Connected</a> (2009).
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
But how do they know that the friendships actually <i>cause</i> changes in health, happiness, etc,
|
||
rather than just being "mere" correlation?
|
||
They did two clever things:
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
1) They used the Framingham Heart Study dataset, which tracked thousands of people for <i>generations</i>.
|
||
The data showed that people were becoming friends first, and <i>then</i> becoming more similar.
|
||
It's true that similarities "cause" friendships (birds of a feather flock together),
|
||
but this proves that friendships "cause" similarities, too.
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
And 2) They found pairs of people where Person A named Person B as their friend,
|
||
but Person B did <i>not</i> name Person A as their friend. Awkward.
|
||
In those cases, they found that the "contagion" <i>only</i> flows in one direction.
|
||
This proves that, indeed, changes in health are caused by social influence,
|
||
rather than caused by external variables like, I dunno,
|
||
a new McDonald's opening up in Person A & B's neighborhood.
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="suicides">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“some evidence that suicides are [contagious], too”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/42000514?seq=4#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
||
“Suicide Contagion and the Reporting of Suicide: Recommendations from a National Workshop”</a>
|
||
by O'Carroll et al (1994), endorsed by the frickin' Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC).
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
Here's what they found <i>increases</i> suicide-contagion:
|
||
repeated, sensationalist coverage,
|
||
reporting the exact step-by-step method of suicide,
|
||
presenting suicide as a means to effectively accomplish ends.
|
||
So, their CDC-endorsed recommendation to all news outlets: don't do that.
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
To the news outlets' credit, they've mostly adopted these guidelines on suicide-contagion.
|
||
But less so on mass-shooting-contagion.
|
||
See <a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["shootings"]);'>next footnote.</a>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="shootings">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“some evidence that mass shootings are [contagious], too”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0117259">
|
||
“Contagion in Mass Killings and School Shootings”</a> by Towers et al (2015).
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
Just like how news outlets take caution in how they report suicides
|
||
in order to minimize the risk of suicide-contagion,
|
||
(see <a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["suicides"]);'>previous footnote</a>)
|
||
many journalists/criminologists are calling on news outlets to take more responsibility
|
||
in how they cover mass shootings,
|
||
in order to minimize the risk of murder-contagion.
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
See: the
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.dontnamethem.org/">
|
||
Don't Name Them</a> campaign,
|
||
which recommends that news outlets <i>NOT</i> give fame to mass shooters by airing their name, manifestos,
|
||
and social media profile bio —
|
||
and instead, focus on the victims, the first responders, the civilian heroes,
|
||
and the grieving & healing community.
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="subprime">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“The world's financial institutions fell for such a cascade in 2008.”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://newrepublic.com/article/63023/wall-streets-lemmings">
|
||
“Lemmings of Wall Street”</a> by Cass Sunstein, is a quick, non-technical read.
|
||
Published in Oct 2008, <i>during</i> the crash,
|
||
he looks at the whole mess through the lens of information cascades & social psychology.
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="complex">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“Complex contagions are weirder.”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.unc.edu/~fbaum/teaching/articles/Granovetter_AJS_1978.pdf">
|
||
“Threshold Models of Collective Behavior”</a> by Granovetter (1978)
|
||
was the first time, as far as I know, anyone described a "complex contagion" model.
|
||
Although: 1) he didn't name it "complex contagion",
|
||
and 2) the "thresholds" in his model are
|
||
based on absolute # of exposure, not relative % of exposure.
|
||
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0180802">
|
||
“Evidence for complex contagion models of social contagion from observational data”</a>
|
||
by Sprague & House (2017)
|
||
gets data to show that complex contagion does, in fact, exist. Well, on the internet, at least.
|
||
Science is hard, okay?
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
Finally — and this paper tickles by nerd-bones —
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0403699.pdf">
|
||
“Universal behavior in a generalized model of contagion”</a> by Dodds & Watts (2004)
|
||
proposes a model that unifies <i>all</i> kinds of contagions:
|
||
simple and complex, biological and social!
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="groupthink">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“groupthink”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
This Orwell-inspired phrase was coined by Irving L. Janis way back in 1971!
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100401033524/http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/macdonald/GroupThink.pdf">
|
||
In his original article</a>,
|
||
he investigates the Bay of Pigs fiasco (and other cases where groups of experts made terrible decisions),
|
||
and lists groupthink's causes, symptoms, and — thankfully, some remedies.
|
||
(for more on how to remedy groupthink, and how "small worlds" once barely
|
||
saved the world from the drink of nuclear war, check out
|
||
<a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["swn_jfk"]);'>this footnote</a>.)
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="social_capital">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“bonding and bridging social capital”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
These two types of social capital — "bonding" and "bridging" —
|
||
were coined by Robert Putnam in his insightful, layperson-friendly 2000 book,
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://bowlingalone.com/">
|
||
Bowling Alone</a>. Using a bunch of data and statistics, he finds that,
|
||
across almost <i>all</i> measures of social connectiveness, Americans are more alone than ever.
|
||
Golly.
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="bridge">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“bridging social capital has a sweet spot”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://sociology.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/the_strength_of_weak_ties_and_exch_w-gans.pdf">
|
||
“The Strength of Weak Ties”</a> by Granovetter (1973)
|
||
showed the world a really counterintuitive discovery –
|
||
people get new, useful information (like job openings) not from their close friendships (strong ties),
|
||
but from their distant acquaintances (weak ties)! This is because people in your group will mostly have the same
|
||
information <i>you</i> do, but people <i>outside</i> your group will be more likely to have novel information.
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
So, that may lead you to think that more weak ties, more bridging, is always better
|
||
(at least, for spreading contagions).
|
||
But a newer paper,
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/521848?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
||
“Complex Contagions and the Weakness of Long Ties”</a> by Centola & Macy (2007)
|
||
shows that while Granovetter's findings hold up for simple contagions,
|
||
they fail for complex contagions! And, in fact,
|
||
“as adoption thresholds increase, <i>long ties can impede diffusion</i>.” [emphasis added]
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="small_world">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“the small world network”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
// Milgram, six degrees of separation popularized
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
The "small world network" became an academic celebrity
|
||
with the release of
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://leonidzhukov.net/hse/2014/socialnetworks/papers/watts-collective_dynamics-nature_1998.pdf">
|
||
“Collective dynamics of small-world networks”</a> by Watts & Strogatz (1998).
|
||
// sweet spot (totally regular, random)
|
||
I'll admit, it's a really technical paper,
|
||
and I didn't understand it until I played
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://worrydream.com/ScientificCommunicationAsSequentialArt/">
|
||
the visual, interactive adaptation</a> by Bret Victor! (2011)
|
||
Seriously, check that one out.
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="swn_neurons">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“[small world networks] describe how our neurons are connected”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17079517">
|
||
“Small-world brain networks”</a> by Bassett & Bullmore (2006).
|
||
The authors do some magic science stuff to monkey and cat brains,
|
||
something something something, et voila, they're small-world networks!
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
...okay, this paper totally flew over my head.
|
||
But it's got 1500+ citations, so, it's probably fine.
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="swn_creativity">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“[small world networks] give rise to collective creativity”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/432782?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
||
“Collaboration and Creativity: The Small World Problem”</a> by Uzzi & Spiro (2005).
|
||
This paper analyzed the social networks of artists in the Broadway scene from 1945 to 1989,
|
||
measured the financial & critical success of the musicals they made,
|
||
and discovered that, yup, you're most creative when you're in a small world network!
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
Also of note: they found that “the small world effect was parabolic [upside-down U shape]”. That is:
|
||
creativity was hurt by both too little <i>and</i> too much connectivity —
|
||
you need a sweet spot!
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="swn_social_physics">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“[small world networks] give rise to collective problem-solving”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://socialphysics.media.mit.edu/">
|
||
“Social Physics”</a> by MIT Professor Alex "Sandy" Pentland (2014)
|
||
analyzes a whole bunch of data,
|
||
and finds that people make collective decisions best when they're connected <i>but not too connected</i>
|
||
— a sweet spot.
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
Pentland was also the co-author of my favorite papers,
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/330/6004/686.short">
|
||
“Evidence for a Collective Intelligence Factor in the Performance of Human Groups”</a> by Woolley et al (2004).
|
||
Turns out, the secret sauce behind smart groups is "social sensitivity", or, empathy.
|
||
(but, as Irving Janis pointed out a few decades earlier, <i>too much</i> of a
|
||
buddy-buddy everyone-get-along feeling can lead to groupthink.
|
||
See <a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["groupthink"]);'>this footnote</a>.)
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="swn_jfk">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“[small world networks] helped John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war!”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
Besides the NASA Challenger explosion, the most notorious example of groupthink
|
||
was the Bay of Pigs fiasco. In 1961, US President John F. Kennedy and his team of advisors
|
||
thought — for some reason — it would be a good idea to secretly invade Cuba and overthrow Fidel Castro.
|
||
They failed. Actually, worse than failed: it led to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962,
|
||
<i>the closest the world had ever been to full-scale nuclear war.</i>
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
Yup, JFK really screwed up on that one.
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
But, having learnt some hard lessons from the Bay of Pigs fiasco,
|
||
JFK re-organized his team to avoid groupthink.
|
||
Among many things, he:
|
||
1) actively encouraged people to voice criticism,
|
||
thus lowering the "contagion threshold" for alternate ideas.
|
||
And
|
||
2) he broke his team up into sub-groups before reconvening,
|
||
which gave their group a "small world network"-like design!
|
||
Together, this "group design" allowed for a healthy diversity of opinion,
|
||
but without being too fractured — a wisdom of crowds.
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
And so, with the same <i>individuals</i> who decided the Bay of Pigs,
|
||
but re-arranged <i>collectively</i> to decide on the Cuban Missile Crisis...
|
||
JFK's team was able to reach a peaceful agreement with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev.
|
||
The Soviets would remove their missiles from Cuba, and in return,
|
||
the US would promise not to invade Cuba again.
|
||
(and also agreed, in secret, to remove the US missiles from Turkey)
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
And that's the story of how all of humanity almost died.
|
||
But a small world network saved the day! Sort of.
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
You can read more about this
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://hbr.org/2013/11/how-john-f-kennedy-changed-decision-making">
|
||
on Harvard Business Review</a>,
|
||
or from
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100401033524/http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/macdonald/GroupThink.pdf">
|
||
Irving Janis's original article on groupthink</a>.
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="three_degrees">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“we influence [...] our friends' friends' friends!”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
Again, from Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's
|
||
great, layperson-friendly book,
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
|
||
Connected</a> (2009).
|
||
See <a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["contagion"]);'>this footnote</a> for details on how they did their analysis.
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="flatter">
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“be skeptical of ideas that flatter you”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<div>
|
||
yes, including the ideas in <i>this</i> explorable explanation.
|
||
</div>
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="sandbox">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
★ Sandbox Mode ★
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
Pst... wanna hear a secret?
|
||
Those keyboard shortcuts (1, 2, space, delete)
|
||
work not just in the Sandbox Mode, but in <i>all</i> the puzzles!
|
||
Seriously, you can go back to a different chapter,
|
||
and edit the simulation right there.
|
||
In fact, that's how <i>I</i> created all these puzzles. Have fun!
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
|
||
</span>
|
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