1683 lines
50 KiB
HTML
1683 lines
50 KiB
HTML
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<!--
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THE WISDOM AND/OR MADNESS OF CROWDS
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by Nicky Case | apr 2018
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- - - - - - - - - - -
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FAN TRANSLATION GUIDE:
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https://github.com/ncase/crowds#how-to-translate-this-thing
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Hello fan-translaters! Thank you so, so much for your help.
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I hope you know what you've gotten yourself into.
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There's about 3600+ WORDS to translate, including
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the Bonus Boxes and References.
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To make things easier (or less painful, anyway) I've marked
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what needs to be translated and how with big "TRANSLATE" comments.
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Ctrl+F for "TRANSLATE" in uppercase to see what needs to be translated!
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BUT BEFORE YOU TRANSLATE ANYTHING, DO THIS:
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1) Look up the two-letter code of the language you're translating to:
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ISO_639-1_codes
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2) *COPY* index.html, and name the copy [two-letter-code].html
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For example: de.html, ar.html, zh.html, etc...
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3) Translate *THAT* page. Do NOT modify the original index.html!
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And once you're done, go to "translations.txt", and follow the
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instructions there to let this game "know" your translation exists.
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Good luck, and thanks again!
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<3,
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~ Nicky Case
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-->
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-TW">
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<head>
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<!-- Meta Info -->
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<title>群眾的智慧與瘋狂</title> <!-- <title>(TRANSLATE this part only)</title> -->
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<meta name="description" content="互動式講解人際網絡"/> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta content="text/html;charset=utf-8" http-equiv="Content-Type">
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<meta content="utf-8" http-equiv="encoding">
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<meta charset="utf-8">
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<link rel="icon" type="image/png" href="favicon.png">
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<!-- Sharing -->
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<meta itemprop="name" content="The Wisdom and/or Madness of Crowds"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta itemprop="description" content="互動式講解人際網絡"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta itemprop="image" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/social/thumb.png">
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<meta name="twitter:title" content="群眾的智慧與瘋狂"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta name="twitter:description" content="互動式講解人際網絡"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image">
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<meta name="twitter:site" content="@ncasenmare">
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<meta name="twitter:creator" content="@ncasenmare">
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<meta name="twitter:image" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/social/thumb.png">
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<meta property="og:title" content="The Wisdom and/or Madness of Crowds"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta property="og:description" content="an interactive guide to human networks"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
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<meta property="og:type" content="website">
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<meta property="og:url" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/">
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<meta property="og:image" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/social/thumb.png">
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<!-- Styles -->
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<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="css/index.css?v=4">
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</head>
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<body>
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<!-- THE SLIDESHOW -->
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<div id="container">
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<!-- Simulation(s) in background -->
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<div id="simulations_container">
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<div id="simulations"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Slideshow: words & buttons -->
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<div id="slideshow_container">
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<div id="slideshow"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Scratch Transition -->
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<canvas id="scratch" width="711" height="400"></canvas>
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<!-- Skip -->
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<div id="skip">跳過 ></div> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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<!-- Modal -->
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<div id="modal_container">
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<div id="modal_bg"></div>
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<div id="modal">
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<div id="modal_close">⨯</div>
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<div id="modal_content_container">
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<div id="modal_content"></div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Navigation: Audio, Contents, Share, Translations -->
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<div id="navigation_container">
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<div id="sound" mute="no">
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<div id="sound_icon"></div>
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<span id="sound_on">ON</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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<span id="sound_off">OFF</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</div>
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<div id="sharing">
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<a id="fb" target="_blank" href="TODO"></a>
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<a id="tw" target="_blank" href="TODO"></a>
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<a id="em" target="_blank" href="TODO"></a>
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<span id="share_title">
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群眾的智慧與瘋狂 <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</span>
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<span id="share_desc">
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<!-- TRANSLATOR: keep this on ONE LINE or the social sharing will break! -->
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為何群體時而理智、愚昧、善良或又殘忍?互動式講解人際網絡:<!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</span>
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</div>
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<div id="navigation">
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<!-- The chapters -->
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<!-- TRANSLATE all the Chapter names! -->
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<div chapter="Introduction">
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<span>0</span>
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<span>0. 介紹</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Networks">
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<span>1</span>
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<span>1. Connections</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Simple">
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<span>2</span>
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<span>2. 傳播</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Complex">
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<span>3</span>
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<span>3. 複雜傳播</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="BB">
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<span>4</span>
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<span>4. 結合 & 橋接</span> <!-- note: & is html for the "and" sign -->
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</div>
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<div chapter="SmallWorld">
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<span>5</span>
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<span>5. 小型世界</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Conclusion">
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<span>6</span>
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<span>6. 總結...</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Credits">
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<span>7</span>
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<span>7. 致謝</span>
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</div>
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<div chapter="Sandbox">
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<span>★</span>
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<span>★ 沙盒模式 ★</span>
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</div>
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<!-- A divider -->
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<span class="nav_divider"></span>
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<!-- Bonus Notes & References -->
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<div modal="bonus">
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<span>?</span>
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<span>點心盒</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</div>
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<div modal="references">
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<span style="margin-top: 7px; font-size: 35px;">*</span>
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<span>連接 & 參考文獻</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</div>
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<div modal="translations">
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<span style="margin-top:5px; position:relative;"><span style="
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position: absolute;
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top: -8px;
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left: 6px;
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">A</span><span style="
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position: absolute;
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font-size: 16px;
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top: -1px;
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left: 16px;
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">あ</span></span>
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<span>翻譯</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</div>
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<!-- The hover bubble -->
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<span id="nav_bubble"></span>
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</div>
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<div id="translations"></div>
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<div id="social"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- The Pencil -->
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<div id="pencil_container">
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<canvas id="pencil"></canvas>
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</div>
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<!-- Preloader -->
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<div id="pre_preloader">
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<div>loading...</div> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
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</div>
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</body>
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</html>
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<!-- - - - - -->
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<!-- SCRIPTS -->
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<!-- - - - - -->
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<script src="js/lib/helpers.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/inobounce.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/minpubsub.src.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/howler.min.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/Key.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/Mouse.js"></script>
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<script src="js/lib/Sprite.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Slideshow.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Pencil.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Boxes.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Scratch.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Navigation.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/SimUI.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/SandboxUI.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Modal.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Preloader.js"></script>
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<script src="js/slideshow/Translations.js?v=3"></script>
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<script src="js/sim/Peep.js?v=2"></script>
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<script src="js/sim/Connection.js"></script>
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<script src="js/sim/ConnectorCutter.js"></script>
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<script src="js/sim/Simulations.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/A_Preloader.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/B_Introduction.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/C_Networks.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/D_Simple_Contagion.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/E_Complex_Contagion.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/F_Bonding_And_Bridging.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/G_Small_World.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/H_Conclusion.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/I_Credits.js"></script>
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<script src="js/chapters/J_Sandbox.js?v=2"></script>
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<script src="js/main.js"></script>
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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<!-- THE SLIDESHOW'S WORDS -->
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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<!--
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This is the bulk of what you need to TRANSLATE!
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Translate just the text that's within the <tag></tags>
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If you're using a code editor (like Sublime Text https://www.sublimetext.com/),
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it should automatically highlight what the text is (usually in white).
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-->
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<span style="display:none">
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<!-- Preloader -->
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<words id="preloader_title">
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<div style="font-size: 30px;">
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<span>the</span>
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<br>
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<span style="font-size: 60px;letter-spacing: 4px;">WISDOM</span>
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<span style="position:relative;top: -10px;">and/or</span>
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<span style="font-size: 60px;">MADNESS</span>
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<br>
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<span style="position: relative;top: -11px;">of</span>
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<br>
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<span style="font-size: 100px;line-height: 80px;position: relative;top: -15px; display:block;">CROWDS</span>
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</div>
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<div style="color:#999">
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<!-- TRANSLATE note: comment out the line below... -->
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<!-- playing time: 30 min • by nicky case, april 2018-->
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<!-- ...and UN-comment + TRANSLATE this line! -->
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<!-- by nicky case • translated by [your name] • <a href='/'>original in English</a> -->
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遊戲時間: 30 分鐘 • 原作: nicky case • 2018 年 4 月<br>
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翻譯: chairco • <a href='./'>
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</div>
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</words>
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<words id="preloader_button">
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<next></next>
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</words>
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<words id="preloader_loading">
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載入中...
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</words>
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<words id="preloader_play">
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一起開始吧! <div class="rarr"></div>
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</words>
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<!-- Introduction -->
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<!--
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TRANSLATE note: to make the text stay in a circle, I added lots of <br> breaks.
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You may have to re-arrange the <br>'s in order to do your translation.
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It shouldn't look too bad if they're slightly off, though!
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Also, <b></b> bolds a word/phrase, and <i></i> italicizes a word/phrase.
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-->
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<words id="intro">
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<br><br>
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無法置啄,艾薩克·牛頓爵士是一位
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<br>
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絕頂聰明的笨蛋。我的意思是再締造微積分與
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<br>
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萬有引力理論後,理應他應該具備了足夠的智慧去
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<br>
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進行金融投資,對吧?反正,讓我們長話短說,
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<br>
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牛頓爵士在 1720 年的全國投機浪潮南海泡沫事件
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<br>
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一共損失了 $4,600,000 美金(換算成今日的貨幣)。
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<br><br>
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如同牛頓先生在稍後所說: <i>“我可以計算運行於天體
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軌道的運動,
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<br>
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但無法預知人類的瘋狂。”</i>
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<next>咦,糟透了<div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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</words>
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<words id="intro_2">
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<div style="height:0.5em"></div>
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Of course, that's not the only
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當然,那不是唯一
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<br>
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time markets, institutions, or entire
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<br>
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democracies went haywire — the <i>madness</i> of
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<br>
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crowds. And yet, just when you lose hope in humanity,
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<br>
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you see citizens coordinating to rescue each other in
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<br>
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hurricanes, communities creating solutions to problems,
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<br>
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people fighting for a better world — the <i>wisdom</i> of crowds!
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|||
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<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
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|||
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<b>But <i>why</i> do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom?</b> No theory
|
|||
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<br>
|
|||
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can explain everything, but I think a new field of study,
|
|||
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<br>
|
|||
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<b>network science</b>, can guide us! And its core idea is this: to
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<br>
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understand crowds, we should look not at the <i>individual
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<br>
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people</i>, but at...
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<next>...their <i>connections.</i> <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
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</words>
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<!-- Networks -->
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<words id="networks_tutorial_start">
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<b>一起繪製一個網絡圖吧!</b>
|
|||
|
每條連線代表兩人之間的友誼:
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="networks_tutorial_connect">
|
|||
|
繪製連線
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="networks_tutorial_disconnect">
|
|||
|
抹除 連線
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="networks_tutorial_end">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
當你瞎搞完成塗鴉後,
|
|||
|
<next wiggle>接著我們繼續 <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="networks_threshold">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
今日,社交關係不僅僅只是拍一些美美的
|
|||
|
照片而已。
|
|||
|
人們<i>期望</i>朋友們能夠瞭解自己。
|
|||
|
舉例,透過搜尋同儕去
|
|||
|
找出 <b>朋友占多少比例(%)是</b>(不包含自己),
|
|||
|
酗酒的人。 <icon name="yellow"></icon>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="networks_threshold_instruction">
|
|||
|
<b>繪製/刪除連線, 接著看看發生什麼事了!<div class="rarr"></div> </b>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="networks_threshold_end">
|
|||
|
<next>酷,了解</next>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="networks_pre_puzzle">
|
|||
|
然而,網絡也可能會<i>愚弄</i>人們。
|
|||
|
就像是,蘇軾題西林壁之中
|
|||
|
兩句一般:”不識廬山真面目,只緣身在此山中”
|
|||
|
人可能會對社會產生了錯誤的想法,因為他們<i>生處於社會中</i>而對社會產生錯誤認知。
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="optional_reading">
|
|||
|
<div style="position:absolute; top:5px;">
|
|||
|
<i>選項</i> 額外的獎勵 ↑
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
<div style="position:absolute; left:216px; top:10px;">
|
|||
|
↓ 相關連結與參考文獻
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="networks_pre_puzzle_2">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<bon id="books"></bon>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
舉個例子,1991 年的一篇研究<ref id="drunk"></ref> 指出,“幾乎所有的[學院]學生都表示他們的朋友酒喝得比自己還多。”
|
|||
|
但這看起來不大可能!那,為何他們會做出這樣的陳述?
|
|||
|
嗯,你將透過繪製一個網絡圖來挖掘與找尋答案。
|
|||
|
接下來...
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<next>欺騙所有人 <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="networks_puzzle">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<b style="font-size:2em">拼圖時間!</b>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
如何欺騙<i>所有人</i>讓他們都認為所認識的多數的朋友 (門檻 50%) 是酗酒者 <icon name="yellow"></icon>
|
|||
|
(即便酗酒者只占 2 比 1 )
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="networks_puzzle_metric">
|
|||
|
<b>被欺騙的人:</b>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="networks_puzzle_metric_2">
|
|||
|
距離 9 人
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="networks_puzzle_end">
|
|||
|
恭喜!你操縱了一群學生讓他們讓他們進入一個我們所無法想像的
|
|||
|
不健康社會規範群體!很好,我們繼續!
|
|||
|
<next wiggle>...嗯. 感謝?</next>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="networks_post_puzzle">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
剛剛你透過拼圖所創造出的東西我們稱為多數幻覺<ref id="majority"></ref>,
|
|||
|
這同時也解釋為何人們會認為自己的政治觀點是所有人的共識,
|
|||
|
或是為何極端主義比實際情況更為普遍。
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<bon id="connections"></bon>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
但人其實不僅只是被動<i>接受</i>他人思想與其行為,更進一步的還會去<i>複製與擴散</i>。
|
|||
|
所以現在我們來看看網絡科學家所稱之的東西...
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<next>“傳染擴散!” <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<!-- Simple Contagions -->
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="simple_simple">
|
|||
|
<i>現在,讓我們暫時先放棄 "閥值" 這東西。</i>
|
|||
|
下圖: 我們有個人 <icon name="red"></icon> 以及一些訊息。
|
|||
|
一些是<i>錯誤</i>訊息。 就像那些很酷的孩子說的,"假新聞"。
|
|||
|
每天,人們就像傳播病毒般將謠言傳遞給朋友。
|
|||
|
然後他們的朋友再將這些謠言傳播給<i>他們的</i>朋友。接著繼續。
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<b>
|
|||
|
開始進行模擬!<div class="darr"></div>
|
|||
|
(p.s: <i>當</i>模擬進行時你無法繪圖)
|
|||
|
</b>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="simple_simple_2">
|
|||
|
注意: 儘管 "傳染" 這個名字有點負面意義,但它可以是好的或是壞的(或是中性以及模棱兩可)。
|
|||
|
這裡有些很強的統計證據指出<ref id="contagion"></ref>像是抽煙、健康、幸福、投票模式與合作程度這些都是具有 “傳染性” -- 甚至也有些證據指明自殺事件<ref id="suicides"></ref>和大規模的槍擊事件<ref id="shootings"></ref>同樣也是。
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="simple_simple_end">
|
|||
|
<next wiggle>歐,實在令人沮喪 <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="simple_cascade">
|
|||
|
的確如此,
|
|||
|
但不管怎樣都要,<b>拼圖時間</b>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
繪製一個網絡 & 執行模擬,接著讓<i>每個人</i>都透過“傳染”進而感染。
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
(新增規則:你不可以刪除<i>厚厚的</i>連接線)
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="simple_cascade_end">
|
|||
|
<next wiggle>進入高潮囉 <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="simple_post_cascade">
|
|||
|
這類瘋狂的傳播被稱做 <b>帶風向</b>
|
|||
|
牛頓先生在 1720 年時就是陷入風向中。
|
|||
|
2008 年的全球金融機構同樣也是在類似這樣風向之中而下跌。<ref id="subprime"></ref>
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
然而: <i>這樣的模擬不盡然正確。</i>
|
|||
|
多數的想法 <i>並不會</i>如病毒一般擴散。
|
|||
|
如果要被多數的信仰與行為“感染”,你必須“暴露”在更多的傳染之中。
|
|||
|
所以,網絡科學家想出了更多更好的新方法去描述如何擴散這些想法/行為,他們稱做...
|
|||
|
<next wiggle>“<i>複雜</i> 傳染!” <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<!-- Complex Contagions -->
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="complex_complex">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
讓我們回到“閥值”且
|
|||
|
以酗酒者作<icon name="yellow"></icon>為例子!
|
|||
|
當你遊行進行第一次時,人們並不會改變他們的行為。
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
現在,假使人們開始喝酒時,我們再模擬一次
|
|||
|
<i>當他們的朋友超過 50% 都開始喝酒時!</i>
|
|||
|
<b>在你開始這個模擬時,問問自己覺得<i>應該</i>會發生什麼事。</b>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<b>現在,執行模擬,接著你會看到發生一些事情! <div class="rarr"></div> </b>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="complex_complex_2">
|
|||
|
<span style="line-height:1.3em; display:block;">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
不同於先前的“假新聞”<icon name="red"></icon>的傳染,
|
|||
|
這種傳染<icon name="yellow"></icon>並<i>不會</i>擴散給每一個人!
|
|||
|
開始的前幾個人被感染,是因為他們只暴露在一個酗酒者,而這位酗酒者佔他朋友比例的一半。(是位邊緣人啊)
|
|||
|
相較之下,在樹狀末梢的人<i>並未</i>被“感染”,這是因為暴露於他們周遭的酗酒者朋友,
|
|||
|
並沒有超過 50% 的閥值。
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
感染者的朋友的<i>相對</i> % 非常重要。
|
|||
|
<i>這就是</i><b>複雜傳染理論</b>以及我們天真的認為像是病毒一般<b>簡單的傳染</b>理論。
|
|||
|
(你也可以說“簡單傳染”是感染率“超過 0%”的感染率)
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
然而,感染未必是壞事 —
|
|||
|
也許對於<i>瘋狂</i>的人群來說已經足夠,那麼...
|
|||
|
<next>...瘋狂 <i>智慧?</i></next>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</span>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="complex_complex_3">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
在這裡,我們有個人 <icon name="blue"></icon>
|
|||
|
他是位志工... 我也不是很清楚哪類型,
|
|||
|
也許在颶風中拯救人群,或是教導當地平群社區的孩子,或也可能是很酷的一個人。
|
|||
|
這裡的重點是,這是一個“好的”複雜傳染。
|
|||
|
這一次我們假設這個閥值僅僅只有 25% —
|
|||
|
人會自願擔任志工,但僅僅只需要 25% 或是更多他們的朋友就會跟著一起去做。
|
|||
|
嘿,善意的企業也是需要一點社會鼓勵的
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<b>← 讓每個人都感受些好感!</b>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="complex_complex_3_end">
|
|||
|
<span style="line-height:1.3em; display:block;">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<b>注意:</b> 志願服務僅僅只是眾多複雜傳染的<i>一種</i>!
|
|||
|
其他包含:選民投票率、生活習慣、挑戰你的信仰、花時間深入了解問題 — 任何一種需要超過一次“揭露”的事情。
|
|||
|
複雜傳染<i>不一定</i>是明智的,
|
|||
|
但是明智的是必定是一個複雜的傳染。
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
(那麼現實生活中哪些事情是<i>簡單的</i>傳染?
|
|||
|
通常會是些瑣事,比如,“袋貂有 13 個乳頭”<ref id="possum"></ref>)
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<bon id="contagions"></bon>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
現在,<i>真的</i>要展現複雜傳染的力量以及怪誕,讓我們
|
|||
|
重溫...
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<next>...更早之前的地圖 <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</span>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="complex_cascade">
|
|||
|
還記得這個地圖嗎?這一次,有一個<i>複雜</i>
|
|||
|
傳染<icon name="blue"></icon>,他會有一些些困難...
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<b>嘗試看看用複雜的智慧去“感染”所有的人<div class="darr"></div></b>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="complex_cascade_feel_free">
|
|||
|
(不要太拘束的按下‘開始’同時<i>試試</i>你想要的各種不同的方案)
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="complex_cascade_end">
|
|||
|
<next wiggle>HOT DANG <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="complex_post_cascade">
|
|||
|
現在,你可以會以為只要新增連接去擴散任一種“複雜”或是“簡單”,好或壞,智慧或者瘋狂的傳染。
|
|||
|
但真的是如此嗎?那們,讓我們回顧...
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="complex_post_cascade_end">
|
|||
|
<next wiggle>...其他更早先的地圖 <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="complex_prevent">
|
|||
|
假如你按下“開始”,下圖複雜傳染 <icon name="blue"></icon> 將會開始擴散給所有人。
|
|||
|
毫無意外的結果。
|
|||
|
但現在,讓我們<i>重複</i>之前所做過的所有事情:
|
|||
|
<b>繪製一個網絡圖</b><i>防止</i>傳染擴散到其他人身上!<div class="darr"></div></b>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="complex_prevent_2">
|
|||
|
你看見了嗎?
|
|||
|
雖然較多的連結可能是會幫助<i>簡單</i>想法的擴散,
|
|||
|
<i>複雜</i>得想法卻會因為<b>過多的連接而造成擴散的傷害!</b>
|
|||
|
(這讓你想起互聯網了嗎,嗯哼?)
|
|||
|
這不僅是一個理論問題。這也可能會是一個生活上的問題...
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="complex_prevent_end">
|
|||
|
<next wiggle>...或是逝去. <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="complex_groupthink">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
在 NASA 工作的人是聰明的笨蛋。
|
|||
|
我意思是,他們運用牛頓的理論讓我們可以登陸
|
|||
|
月球。
|
|||
|
不管怎樣,長話短說,在 1986 年,
|
|||
|
<i>儘管工程師發出了警告</i>,他們人然發射了<i>挑戰者號</i>,
|
|||
|
最後失事爆炸且奪走 7 的人的性命。
|
|||
|
失事的直接原因:
|
|||
|
那天的早晨太冷了。
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
不直接的失事原因: 管理人員忽視了
|
|||
|
工程師的警告。
|
|||
|
為何?因為<b>團體迷思</b><ref id="groupthink"></ref>.
|
|||
|
當一個團體組織<i>過度</i>緊密,(尤其當這個團體位於制度頂端)他們去抵抗挑戰他們信仰以及自我的複雜想法。
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
所以,這也是為何這些機構如何陷入瘋狂之中。
|
|||
|
但,我們該如何設計一個群眾的<i>智慧?</i>
|
|||
|
簡短來說,兩個字:
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<next>結合 & 橋接 <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<!-- Bonding & Bridging -->
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="bonding_1">
|
|||
|
← Too few connections, and an idea can't spread.
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Too many connections, and you get groupthink. <div class="rarr"></div>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="bonding_2">
|
|||
|
<b>
|
|||
|
Draw a group that hits the sweet spot:
|
|||
|
just connected enough to spread a complex idea!
|
|||
|
<div class="darr"></div>
|
|||
|
</b>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="bonding_end">
|
|||
|
Simple enough!
|
|||
|
The number of connections <i>within</i> a group is called <b>bonding social capital</b><ref id="social_capital"></ref>.
|
|||
|
But what about the connections...
|
|||
|
<next wiggle>...<i>between</i> groups?</next>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="bridging_1">
|
|||
|
As you may have already guessed,
|
|||
|
the number of connections <i>between</i> groups is called
|
|||
|
<b>bridging social capital</b>.
|
|||
|
This is important, because it helps groups break out of their insular echo chambers!
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<b>Build a bridge, to "infect" everyone with complex wisdom:</b>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="bridging_end">
|
|||
|
Like bonding, there's a sweet spot for bridging, too.<ref id="bridge"></ref>
|
|||
|
(extra challenge: try drawing a bridge so thick that the complex contagion
|
|||
|
<i>can't</i> pass through it!)
|
|||
|
Now that we know how to "design" connections <i>within</i> and <i>between</i> groups, let's...
|
|||
|
<next wiggle>...do BOTH at the same time!</next>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="bb_1">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<b style="font-size:2em">FINAL PUZZLE!</b>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Draw connections within groups (bonding) and between groups (bridging)
|
|||
|
to spread wisdom to the whole crowd:
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="bb_2">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
Congrats, you've just drawn a very special kind of network!
|
|||
|
Networks with the right mix of bonding and bridging
|
|||
|
are profoundly important, and they're called...
|
|||
|
<next wiggle>“Small World Networks” <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="bb_small_world_1">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<i>"Unity without uniformity". "Diversity without division". "E Pluribus Unum: out of many, one".</i>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
No matter how it's phrased,
|
|||
|
people across times and cultures often arrive at the same piece of wisdom:
|
|||
|
<b>
|
|||
|
a healthy society needs a sweet spot of bonds <i>within</i> groups
|
|||
|
and bridges <i>between</i> groups.
|
|||
|
</b>
|
|||
|
That is:
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="bb_small_world_2">
|
|||
|
Not this...
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
(because ideas can't spread)
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="bb_small_world_3">
|
|||
|
nor this...
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
(because you'll get groupthink)
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="bb_small_world_4">
|
|||
|
...but <i>THIS:</i>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="bb_small_world_5">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
Network scientists now have a mathematical definition for this ancient wisdom:
|
|||
|
the <b>small world network</b><ref id="small_world"></ref>.
|
|||
|
This optimal mix of bonding+bridging describes how
|
|||
|
our neurons are connected<ref id="swn_neurons"></ref>,
|
|||
|
fosters collective creativity<ref id="swn_creativity"></ref>
|
|||
|
and problem-solving<ref id="swn_social_physics"></ref>,
|
|||
|
and even once helped US President John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war!<ref id="swn_jfk"></ref>
|
|||
|
So, yeah, small worlds are a big deal.
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="bb_small_world_end">
|
|||
|
<next>ok, let's wrap this up... <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<!-- Sandbox -->
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="sandbox_caption">
|
|||
|
(pst... wanna know a secret?<ref id="sandbox"></ref>)
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="sandbox_contagion">
|
|||
|
Contagion:
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="sandbox_contagion_simple">
|
|||
|
simple
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="sandbox_contagion_complex">
|
|||
|
complex
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="sandbox_color_chooser">
|
|||
|
The Contagion's Color:
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="sandbox_tool_chooser">
|
|||
|
Select a tool...
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="sandbox_tool_pencil">
|
|||
|
Draw Network
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="sandbox_tool_add">
|
|||
|
Add Person
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="sandbox_tool_add_infected">
|
|||
|
Add "Infected"
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="sandbox_tool_move">
|
|||
|
Drag Person
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="sandbox_tool_delete">
|
|||
|
Delete Person
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="sandbox_tool_clear">
|
|||
|
<b>CLEAR IT ALL</b>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="sandbox_shortcuts_label">
|
|||
|
(...or, use keyboard shortcuts!)
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="sandbox_shortcuts">
|
|||
|
[1]: Add Person [2]: Add "Infected"
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
[Space]: Drag [Backspace]: Delete
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<!-- Conclusion -->
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="conclusion_1">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="font-size: 30px;">
|
|||
|
IN CONCLUSION: it's all about...
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
<div style="
|
|||
|
width: 100%;
|
|||
|
position: absolute;
|
|||
|
font-size: 88px;
|
|||
|
top: 20px;
|
|||
|
line-height: 100px; display:block;
|
|||
|
">
|
|||
|
Contagions & Connections
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="
|
|||
|
width: 710px;
|
|||
|
position: absolute;
|
|||
|
top: 125px;
|
|||
|
left: 250px;
|
|||
|
">
|
|||
|
<b>Contagions:</b>
|
|||
|
Like how neurons pass signals in a brain,
|
|||
|
people pass beliefs & behaviors in a society.
|
|||
|
Not only do we influence our friends,
|
|||
|
we also influence our friends' friends, and even our friends' friends' friends!<ref id="three_degrees"></ref>
|
|||
|
(“be the change you wanna see in the world” etc etc)
|
|||
|
But, like neurons, it's not just signals that matter, it's also...
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="
|
|||
|
width: 710px;
|
|||
|
position: absolute;
|
|||
|
top: 275px;
|
|||
|
left: 250px;
|
|||
|
">
|
|||
|
<b>Connections:</b>
|
|||
|
Too few connections and complex ideas can't spread.
|
|||
|
Too <i>many</i> connections and complex ideas get crushed by groupthink.
|
|||
|
The trick is to build a small world network, the optimal mix of
|
|||
|
bonding and bridging: <i>e pluribus unum.</i>
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="
|
|||
|
width: 350px;
|
|||
|
position: absolute;
|
|||
|
top: 410px;
|
|||
|
left: 220px;
|
|||
|
text-align: center;
|
|||
|
color: #999;
|
|||
|
">
|
|||
|
(wanna make your own simulations?
|
|||
|
check out Sandbox Mode, by clicking the (★) button below!)
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="
|
|||
|
width: 400px;
|
|||
|
position: absolute;
|
|||
|
top: 395px;
|
|||
|
right: 0px;
|
|||
|
text-align: right;
|
|||
|
">
|
|||
|
So, what about our question from the very beginning?
|
|||
|
Why <i>do</i> some crowds turn to...
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
<div style="
|
|||
|
width: 300px;
|
|||
|
position: absolute;
|
|||
|
top: 460px;
|
|||
|
right: 0px;
|
|||
|
">
|
|||
|
<next>...wisdom and/or madness?</next>
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="conclusion_2">
|
|||
|
<span style="line-height:1.4em; display:block;">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="height:0.5em"></div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
From Newton to NASA to
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
network science, we've covered a lot here
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
today. Long story short, the madness of crowds
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
is not necessarily due to the <i>individual people</i>, but due
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
to how we're trapped in a network's sticky web.
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
That <i>does NOT</i> mean abandoning personal responsibility, for
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
we're also the <i>weavers</i> of that web. So, improve your contagions:
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
be skeptical of ideas that flatter you<ref id="flatter"></ref>, spend time understanding
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
complex ideas. And, improve your connections: bond with similar
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
folk, but also build bridges across cultural/political divides.
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
We can weave a wise web. Sure, it's harder than doodling
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
lines on a screen...
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<next>...but so, so worth it.</next>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</span>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="conclusion_3">
|
|||
|
<i>
|
|||
|
“The great triumphs and tragedies of history are caused,
|
|||
|
not by people being fundamentally good or fundamentally bad,
|
|||
|
but by people being fundamentally people.”
|
|||
|
</i>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<span style="position:relative; top:5px">~</span> Neil Gaiman & Terry Pratchett
|
|||
|
<div style="height:0.8em"></div>
|
|||
|
<next small><3</next>
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<!-- Credits -->
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<words id="credits">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="text-align:center; color:#fff; letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 24px; line-height: 27px;">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<span style="color:#777; position:relative; top:5px;">
|
|||
|
created by</span>
|
|||
|
<div style="font-size: 3em; line-height: 1.0em;">
|
|||
|
NICKY CASE</div>
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://ncase.me" style="text-decoration:none">
|
|||
|
play my other shtuff</a> ·
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/ncasenmare" style="text-decoration:none">
|
|||
|
follow my tweeter</a>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<span style="color:#777; position:relative; top:5px; display: inline-block; margin-top: 15px;">
|
|||
|
lots of love and thanks to</span>
|
|||
|
<div style="font-size: 3em; line-height: 1.0em;">
|
|||
|
MY PATREON SUPPORTERS</div>
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.patreon.com/ncase" style="text-decoration:none">
|
|||
|
help me make more like this! <3</a>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["supporters"]);'>
|
|||
|
see my supporters</a> ·
|
|||
|
<a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["playtesters"]);'>
|
|||
|
see my playtesters</a>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<span style="display: inline-block; margin-top: 15px;">
|
|||
|
♫ music is
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Komiku/Tale_on_the_Late/" style="text-decoration:none">
|
|||
|
"Friends 2018" and "Friends 2068"</a>
|
|||
|
by Komiku
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
</> <i>Crowds</i> is
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://github.com/ncase/crowds" style="text-decoration:none">
|
|||
|
fully open source</a>
|
|||
|
</span>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<bon id="further_reading"></bon>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<!-- x. misc -->
|
|||
|
<words id="WIN">
|
|||
|
WIN
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="sim_start">
|
|||
|
start simulation
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="sim_stop">
|
|||
|
reset & re-draw
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="translations_exist">
|
|||
|
Fan-made translations:
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="translations_do_not_exist">
|
|||
|
<!-- There's no need to TRANSLATE this line since, well, -->
|
|||
|
<!-- it'll only show up if no translations exist -->
|
|||
|
What the, no fan-made translations exist yet?!
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="translations_add">
|
|||
|
(add your own!)
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
<words id="translations_original">
|
|||
|
<!-- No need to translate this, because, I assume, -->
|
|||
|
<!-- if someone wants to play the game in English, they can read English -->
|
|||
|
(original in English)
|
|||
|
</words>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
|||
|
<!-- BONUS BOXES -->
|
|||
|
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<!--
|
|||
|
Sorry, not done yet! These Bonus Boxes need you to TRANSLATE, too:
|
|||
|
(And then afterwards, the final thing, translate the References)
|
|||
|
-->
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<bonus id="books">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
A quick response to James Surowiecki's <i>The Wisdom of Crowds</i>
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/surowieki.jpg" width="200" height="300" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
First off, I'm not dissing
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds">
|
|||
|
this book.</a>
|
|||
|
It's a good book, and Surowiecki was trying to tackle the same question I am:
|
|||
|
<b>“why do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom?”</b>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
Surowiecki's answer: crowds make good decisions when everybody is as independent as possible.
|
|||
|
He gives the story of a county fair,
|
|||
|
where the townsfolk were invited to guess the weight of an ox.
|
|||
|
Surprisingly, the average of <i>all</i> their guesses was better than any <i>one</i> guess</i>.
|
|||
|
But, here's the rub: the people have to guess <i>independently</i> of each other.
|
|||
|
Otherwise,
|
|||
|
they'd be influenced by earlier incorrect guesses,
|
|||
|
and the average answer would be highly skewed.
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
But... I don't think "make everyone as independent as possible" is the full answer.
|
|||
|
Even geniuses, who we mischaracterize as the most independent thinkers,
|
|||
|
are deeply influenced by others. As Sir Isaac Newton said,
|
|||
|
<i>“If I have seen further, it is by standing on the sholders of Giants.”</i>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
So, which idea is correct?
|
|||
|
Does wisdom come from thinking for yourself, or thinking with others?
|
|||
|
The answer is: "yes".
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
So that's what I'll try to explain in this explorable explanation:
|
|||
|
how to get that sweet spot between independence and interdependence —
|
|||
|
that is, how to get a wise crowd.
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</bonus>
|
|||
|
<bonus id="connections">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
What other kinds of connections are there?
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
For the sake of simplicity,
|
|||
|
my simulations pretend that people can only be connected through friendships,
|
|||
|
and that all friendships are equal.
|
|||
|
But network scientists <i>do</i> consider other ways we can be connected, such as:
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/connection1.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
|||
|
<b>Directional connections.</b> Alice is the boss of Bob, but Bob is not the boss of Alice.
|
|||
|
Carol is the parent of Dave, but Dave is not the parent of Carol.
|
|||
|
"Boss" & "parent" are <i>directional</i> relationships:
|
|||
|
the relationship only goes one way.
|
|||
|
In contrast, "friends" is a <i>bidirectional</i> relationship:
|
|||
|
the relationship goes both ways. (well, hopefully)
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/connection2.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
|||
|
<b>Weighted connections.</b> Elinor and Frankie are mere acquaintances.
|
|||
|
George and Harry are Best Friends Forever.
|
|||
|
Even though there's a "friendship" connection in both cases, the second one is stronger.
|
|||
|
We say that these two connections have different "weights".
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/map.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
|||
|
Just remember: <b>all these simulations are wrong.</b> The same way any map is "wrong".
|
|||
|
You see the map on the left? Buildings aren't gray featureless blocks!
|
|||
|
Words don't float above the city! However, maps are useful not <i>despite</i> being simplified,
|
|||
|
but <i>because</i> they're simplified. Same goes for simulations, or any scientific theory.
|
|||
|
Of <i>course</i> they're "wrong" — that's what makes them <i>useful</i>.
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</bonus>
|
|||
|
<bonus id="contagions">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
What other kinds of contagions are there?
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
There are so, so many ways that network scientists can simulate "contagions"!
|
|||
|
I picked the simplest one, for educational purposes.
|
|||
|
But here's other ways you could do it:
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion1.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
|||
|
<b>Contagions with Randomness</b>.
|
|||
|
Being "exposed" to a contagion doesn't <i>guarantee</i> you'll be infected,
|
|||
|
it only makes it more <i>likely</i>.
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion2.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
|||
|
<b>People have different contagion thresholds.</b>
|
|||
|
My simulations pretend that everyone has the same threshold for binge-drinking (50%) or
|
|||
|
volunteering (25%) or misinformation (0%).
|
|||
|
Of course, that's not true in real life, and you could make your sim reflect that.
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion3.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
|||
|
<b>An ecology of contagions.</b>
|
|||
|
What if there were <i>multiple</i> contagions, with <i>different</i> thresholds?
|
|||
|
For example, a simple "madness" contagion and a complex "wisdom" contagion.
|
|||
|
If someone's infected with madness, can they still be infected with wisdom?
|
|||
|
Or vice versa?
|
|||
|
Can someone be infected with both?
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion4.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
|||
|
<b>Contagions that mutate and evolve.</b>
|
|||
|
Ideas don't pass perfectly from one person to another the way a virus does.
|
|||
|
Like a game of Telephone, the message gets mutated with each re-telling —
|
|||
|
and sometimes the mutant will be more infectious than the original!
|
|||
|
So, over time, ideas "evolve" to be more catchy, copy-able, contagious.
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</bonus>
|
|||
|
<bonus id="further_reading">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
I wanna learn more! What else can I read and/or play?
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
This explorable explanation was just a springboard for your curiosity,
|
|||
|
so you can dive deeper into a vast pool of knowledge!
|
|||
|
Here's more stuff on networks or social systems:
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/connected.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
|||
|
<b>Book:</b>
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
|
|||
|
Connected</a>
|
|||
|
by Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler (2009).
|
|||
|
An accessible tour of how our networks affect our lives, for good or ill.
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/pdf/excerpt.pdf">
|
|||
|
Here's an excerpt: Preface & Chapter 1
|
|||
|
</a>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/trust.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
|||
|
<b>Interactive:</b>
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://ncase.me/trust/">
|
|||
|
The Evolution of Trust</a> by Nicky Case (me) (2017).
|
|||
|
A game about the game theory of how cooperation is built... or destroyed.
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/polygons.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
|||
|
<b>Interactive:</b>
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://ncase.me/polygons/">
|
|||
|
Parable of the Polygons</a> by Vi Hart and Nicky Case (also me) (2014).
|
|||
|
A story about how harmless choices can create a harmful world.
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<img src="sprites/bonus/ee.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
|||
|
Or, if you just want to see a whole gallery of interactive edu-things, here's
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://explorabl.es/">
|
|||
|
Explorable Explanations</a>,
|
|||
|
a hub for learning through play!
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</bonus>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
|||
|
<!-- REFERENCES -->
|
|||
|
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<!--
|
|||
|
Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE:
|
|||
|
-->
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<reference id="drunk">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
“virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did.”
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1758185">
|
|||
|
“Biases in the perception of drinking norms among college students”</a> by Baer et al (1991)
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</reference>
|
|||
|
<reference id="majority">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
“The Majority Illusion”
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147617">
|
|||
|
“The Majority Illusion in Social Networks”</a> by Lerman et al (2016).
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Related: <a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendship_paradox">
|
|||
|
The Friendship Paradox</a>.
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
</reference>
|
|||
|
<reference id="contagion">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
“strong statistical evidence that
|
|||
|
smoking, health, happiness, voting patterns, and cooperation levels
|
|||
|
are all contagious”
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
From Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's
|
|||
|
wonderfully-written, layperson-accessible book,
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
|
|||
|
Connected</a> (2009).
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
</reference>
|
|||
|
<reference id="suicides">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
“some evidence that suicides are [contagious], too”
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/42000514?seq=4#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
|||
|
“Suicide Contagion and the Reporting of Suicide: Recommendations from a National Workshop”</a>
|
|||
|
by O'Carroll et al (1994), endorsed by the frickin' Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC).
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</reference>
|
|||
|
<reference id="shootings">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
“some evidence that mass shootings are [contagious], too”
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0117259">
|
|||
|
“Contagion in Mass Killings and School Shootings”</a> by Towers et al (2015).
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
Also see: the
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.dontnamethem.org/">
|
|||
|
Don't Name Them</a> campaign,
|
|||
|
which urges that news outlets <i>DO NOT</i> air mass murderers' names, manifestos, and social media feeds.
|
|||
|
This spreads the contagion.
|
|||
|
Instead, news outlets should focus on the victims, first responders, civilian heroes,
|
|||
|
and the grieving, healing community.
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</reference>
|
|||
|
<reference id="subprime">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
“The world's financial institutions fell for such a cascade in 2008.”
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://newrepublic.com/article/63023/wall-streets-lemmings">
|
|||
|
“Lemmings of Wall Street”</a> by Cass Sunstein, is a quick, non-technical read.
|
|||
|
Published in Oct 2008, right in the wake of the crash.
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</reference>
|
|||
|
<reference id="complex">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
“the complex contagion theory.”
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.unc.edu/~fbaum/teaching/articles/Granovetter_AJS_1978.pdf">
|
|||
|
“Threshold Models of Collective Behavior”</a> by Granovetter (1978)
|
|||
|
was the first time, as far as I know, anyone described a "complex contagion" model.
|
|||
|
(although he didn't use that specific name)
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0180802">
|
|||
|
“Evidence for complex contagion models of social contagion from observational data”</a>
|
|||
|
by Sprague & House (2017)
|
|||
|
shows that complex contagions do, in fact, exist. (at least, in the social media data they looked at)
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
Finally,
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0403699.pdf">
|
|||
|
“Universal behavior in a generalized model of contagion”</a> by Dodds & Watts (2004)
|
|||
|
proposes a model that unifies <i>all</i> kinds of contagions:
|
|||
|
simple and complex, biological and social!
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</reference>
|
|||
|
<reference id="possum">
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
“the possum has 13 nipples”
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
arranged in a ring of 12 nipples, plus one in the middle
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
</reference>
|
|||
|
<reference id="groupthink">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
“groupthink”
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
This Orwell-inspired phrase was coined by Irving L. Janis in 1971.
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100401033524/http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/macdonald/GroupThink.pdf">
|
|||
|
In his original article</a>,
|
|||
|
Janis investigates cases of groupthink, lists its causes, and — thankfully —
|
|||
|
some possible remedies.
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</reference>
|
|||
|
<reference id="social_capital">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
“bonding and bridging social capital”
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
These two types of social capital — "bonding" and "bridging" —
|
|||
|
were named by Robert Putnam in his insightful 2000 book,
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://bowlingalone.com/">
|
|||
|
Bowling Alone</a>. His discovery:
|
|||
|
across almost <i>all</i> empircal measures of social connectiveness,
|
|||
|
Americans are more alone than ever.
|
|||
|
Golly.
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</reference>
|
|||
|
<reference id="bridge">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
“bridging social capital has a sweet spot”
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://sociology.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/the_strength_of_weak_ties_and_exch_w-gans.pdf">
|
|||
|
“The Strength of Weak Ties”</a> by Granovetter (1973)
|
|||
|
showed that connections across groups helps spread simple contagions (like information),
|
|||
|
but
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/521848?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
|||
|
“Complex Contagions and the Weakness of Long Ties”</a> by Centola & Macy (2007)
|
|||
|
showed that connections across groups may not help complex contagions,
|
|||
|
and it fact, can hurt their spread!
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</reference>
|
|||
|
<reference id="small_world">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
“the small world network”
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
The idea of the "small world" was popularized by
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/2786545">Travers & Milgram's 1969 experiment</a>,
|
|||
|
which showed that, on average, any two random people in the United States
|
|||
|
were just six friendships apart — "six degrees of separation"!
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
The small-world network got more mathematical meat on its bones with
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://leonidzhukov.net/hse/2014/socialnetworks/papers/watts-collective_dynamics-nature_1998.pdf">
|
|||
|
“Collective dynamics of small-world networks”</a> by Watts & Strogatz (1998),
|
|||
|
which proposed an algorithm for creating networks
|
|||
|
with both low average path length (low degree of separation)
|
|||
|
and high clustering (friends have lots of mutual friends) —
|
|||
|
that is, a network that hits the sweet spot!
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
You can also play with
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://worrydream.com/ScientificCommunicationAsSequentialArt/">
|
|||
|
the visual, interactive adaptation of that paper</a> by Bret Victor (2011).
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</reference>
|
|||
|
<reference id="swn_neurons">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
“[small world networks] describe how our neurons are connected”
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17079517">
|
|||
|
“Small-world brain networks”</a> by Bassett & Bullmore (2006).
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</reference>
|
|||
|
<reference id="swn_creativity">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
“[small world networks] give rise to collective creativity”
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/432782?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
|||
|
“Collaboration and Creativity: The Small World Problem”</a> by Uzzi & Spiro (2005).
|
|||
|
This paper analyzed the social network of the Broadway scene over time,
|
|||
|
and discovered that, yup, the network's most creative when it's a "small world" network!
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</reference>
|
|||
|
<reference id="swn_social_physics">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
“[small world networks] give rise to collective problem-solving”
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
See
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://socialphysics.media.mit.edu/">
|
|||
|
“Social Physics”</a> by MIT Professor Alex "Sandy" Pentland (2014)
|
|||
|
for a data-based approach to collective intelligence.
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</reference>
|
|||
|
<reference id="swn_jfk">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
“[small world networks] helped John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war!”
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
Besides the NASA Challenger explosion, the most notorious example of groupthink
|
|||
|
was the Bay of Pigs fiasco.
|
|||
|
In 1961, US President John F. Kennedy and his team of advisors thought
|
|||
|
— for some reason —
|
|||
|
it would be a good idea to secretly invade Cuba and overthrow Fidel Castro.
|
|||
|
They failed.
|
|||
|
Actually, worse than failed: it led to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962,
|
|||
|
<i>the closest the world had ever been to full-scale nuclear war.</i>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
Yup, JFK really screwed up on that one.
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
But, having learnt some hard lessons from the Bay of Pigs fiasco,
|
|||
|
JFK re-organized his team to avoid groupthink.
|
|||
|
Among many things, he:
|
|||
|
1) actively encouraged people to voice criticism,
|
|||
|
thus lowering the "contagion threshold" for alternate ideas.
|
|||
|
And
|
|||
|
2) he broke his team up into sub-groups before reconvening,
|
|||
|
which gave their group a "small world network"-like design!
|
|||
|
Together, this arrangement allowed for a healthy diversity of opinion,
|
|||
|
but without being too fractured — a wisdom of crowds.
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
And so, with the same <i>individuals</i> who decided the Bay of Pigs,
|
|||
|
but re-arranged <i>collectively</i> to decide on the Cuban Missile Crisis...
|
|||
|
JFK's team was able to reach a peaceful agreement with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev.
|
|||
|
The Soviets would remove their missiles from Cuba, and in return,
|
|||
|
the US would promise not to invade Cuba again.
|
|||
|
(and also agreed, in secret, to remove the US missiles from Turkey)
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
And that's the story of how all of humanity almost died.
|
|||
|
But a small world network saved the day! Sort of.
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
You can read more about this
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://hbr.org/2013/11/how-john-f-kennedy-changed-decision-making">
|
|||
|
on Harvard Business Review</a>,
|
|||
|
or from
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100401033524/http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/macdonald/GroupThink.pdf">
|
|||
|
the original article on groupthink</a>.
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</reference>
|
|||
|
<reference id="three_degrees">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
“we influence [...] our friends' friends' friends!”
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
Again, from Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's
|
|||
|
wonderful book,
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
|
|||
|
Connected</a> (2009).
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</reference>
|
|||
|
<reference id="flatter">
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
“be skeptical of ideas that flatter you”
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
yes, including the ideas in <i>this</i> explorable explanation.
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
</reference>
|
|||
|
<reference id="sandbox">
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<h3>
|
|||
|
★ Sandbox Mode ★
|
|||
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
The keyboard shortcuts (1, 2, space, backspace)
|
|||
|
work in <i>all</i> the puzzles, not just Sandbox Mode!
|
|||
|
Seriously, you can go back to a different chapter,
|
|||
|
and edit the simulation right there.
|
|||
|
In fact, that's how <i>I</i> created all these puzzles. Have fun!
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</reference>
|
|||
|
<reference id="supporters" hidden=yes large=yes>
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
Dear Patreon supporters:
|
|||
|
Your generosity <i>literally</i> feeds me and pays my rent.
|
|||
|
You give me the freedom to make these weird educational games,
|
|||
|
so, from the bottom of my heart, thank you. <3
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.patreon.com/ncase" style="text-decoration:none">
|
|||
|
(want to support me in making more stuff like this? check out my Patreon!)</a>
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
</reference>
|
|||
|
<reference id="playtesters" hidden=yes large=yes>
|
|||
|
<div>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
Thank you, everyone who playtested <i>Crowds</i>
|
|||
|
during its many stages of life!
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
<b>The Prototype:</b>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Maria ·
|
|||
|
Monica Srivastava
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
<b>The Alpha:</b>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Glen Chiacchieri ·
|
|||
|
Kalli Repzeti ·
|
|||
|
Mali Akmanalp ·
|
|||
|
Toph Tucker
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<br><br>
|
|||
|
<b>The Beta:</b>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Alex Dytrych ·
|
|||
|
Amit Patel ·
|
|||
|
Cassandra McClure ·
|
|||
|
Catherine Ray ·
|
|||
|
Josh Comeau ·
|
|||
|
Kayle Sawyer ·
|
|||
|
Matthew Conlen ·
|
|||
|
Srini Kadamati ·
|
|||
|
Vanessa Shen ·
|
|||
|
Wick Perry
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
</reference>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
</span>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
<!--
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
And that's it! That's the last of what needed to a TRANSLATE
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
Thank you so, so much for doing this again, wow.
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
Finally, go to "translations.txt" and follow the instructions there,
|
|||
|
in order to let this game "know" your translation exists.
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
-->
|