herp derp fixes
This commit is contained in:
Nicky Case
commit
f51ee2526e
4 changed files with 45 additions and 34 deletions
35
index.html
35
index.html
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@ -467,7 +467,7 @@
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<p><img src="pics/masks.png" alt=""></p>
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<p>To put a number on it: surgical masks <em>on the sick person</em> reduce cold & flu viruses in aerosols by 70%.<sup id="fnref31"><a href="#fn31" rel="footnote">31</a></sup> Reducing transmissions by 70% would be as large an impact as a lockdown!</p>
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<p>To put a number on it: surgical masks <em>on the infectious person</em> reduce cold & flu viruses in aerosols by 70%.<sup id="fnref31"><a href="#fn31" rel="footnote">31</a></sup> Reducing transmissions by 70% would be as large an impact as a lockdown!</p>
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<p>However, we don't know for sure the impact of masks on COVID-19 <em>specifically</em>. In science, one should only publish a finding if you're 95% sure of it. (...should.<sup id="fnref32"><a href="#fn32" rel="footnote">32</a></sup>) Masks, as of May 1st 2020, are less than "95% sure".</p>
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@ -489,7 +489,7 @@
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<p>Okay, this isn't an "intervention" we can control, but it will help! Some news outlets report that summer won't do anything to COVID-19. They're half right: summer won't get R < 1, but it <em>will</em> reduce R.</p>
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<p>For COVID-19, every extra 1° Celsius (2.2° Fahrenheit) makes R drop by 1.2%.<sup id="fnref36"><a href="#fn36" rel="footnote">36</a></sup> The summer-winter difference in New York City is 15°C (60°F), so summer will make R drop by 18%.</p>
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<p>For COVID-19, every extra 1° Celsius (1.8° Fahrenheit) makes R drop by 1.2%.<sup id="fnref36"><a href="#fn36" rel="footnote">36</a></sup> The summer-winter difference in New York City is 26°C (47°F),<sup id="fnref37"><a href="#fn37" rel="footnote">37</a></sup> so summer will make R drop by ~31%.</p>
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<div class="sim">
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<iframe src="sim?stage=int-6b&format=calc" width="285" height="220"></iframe>
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@ -549,10 +549,10 @@
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<p>...<em>for how long?</em></p>
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<ul>
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<li>COVID-19 is most closely related to SARS, which gave its survivors 2 years of immunity.<sup id="fnref37"><a href="#fn37" rel="footnote">37</a></sup></li>
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<li>The coronaviruses that cause "the" common cold give you 8 months of immunity.<sup id="fnref38"><a href="#fn38" rel="footnote">38</a></sup></li>
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<li>There's reports of folks recovering from COVID-19, then testing positive again, but it's unclear if these are false positives.<sup id="fnref39"><a href="#fn39" rel="footnote">39</a></sup></li>
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<li>One <em>not-yet-peer-reviewed</em> study on monkeys showed immunity to the COVID-19 coronavirus for at least 28 days.<sup id="fnref40"><a href="#fn40" rel="footnote">40</a></sup></li>
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<li>COVID-19 is most closely related to SARS, which gave its survivors 2 years of immunity.<sup id="fnref38"><a href="#fn38" rel="footnote">38</a></sup></li>
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<li>The coronaviruses that cause "the" common cold give you 8 months of immunity.<sup id="fnref39"><a href="#fn39" rel="footnote">39</a></sup></li>
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<li>There's reports of folks recovering from COVID-19, then testing positive again, but it's unclear if these are false positives.<sup id="fnref40"><a href="#fn40" rel="footnote">40</a></sup></li>
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<li>One <em>not-yet-peer-reviewed</em> study on monkeys showed immunity to the COVID-19 coronavirus for at least 28 days.<sup id="fnref41"><a href="#fn41" rel="footnote">41</a></sup></li>
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</ul>
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<p>But for COVID-19 <em>in humans</em>, as of May 1st 2020, "how long" is the big unknown.</p>
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@ -604,7 +604,7 @@
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<p><strong>To be clear: this is unlikely.</strong> Most epidemiologists expect a vaccine in 1 to 2 years. Sure, there's never been a vaccine for any of the other coronaviruses before, but that's because SARS was eradicated quickly, and "the" common cold wasn't worth the investment. </p>
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<p>Still, infectious disease researchers have expressed worries: What if we can't make enough?<sup id="fnref41"><a href="#fn41" rel="footnote">41</a></sup> What if we rush it, and it's not safe?<sup id="fnref42"><a href="#fn42" rel="footnote">42</a></sup></p>
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<p>Still, infectious disease researchers have expressed worries: What if we can't make enough?<sup id="fnref42"><a href="#fn42" rel="footnote">42</a></sup> What if we rush it, and it's not safe?<sup id="fnref43"><a href="#fn43" rel="footnote">43</a></sup></p>
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<p>Even in the nightmare "no-vaccine" scenario, we still have 3 ways out. From most to least terrible:</p>
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@ -643,7 +643,7 @@
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</div>
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</div>
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<p>Plane's sunk. We've scrambled onto the life rafts. It's time to find dry land.<sup id="fnref43"><a href="#fn43" rel="footnote">43</a></sup></p>
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<p>Plane's sunk. We've scrambled onto the life rafts. It's time to find dry land.<sup id="fnref44"><a href="#fn44" rel="footnote">44</a></sup></p>
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<p>Teams of epidemiologists and policymakers (<a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/healthcare/news/2020/04/03/482613/national-state-plan-end-coronavirus-crisis/">left</a>, <a href="https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/">right</a>, and <a href="https://ethics.harvard.edu/covid-roadmap">multi-partisan</a>) have come to a consensus on how to beat COVID-19, while protecting our lives <em>and</em> liberties.</p>
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@ -855,36 +855,41 @@
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</li>
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<li id="fn37">
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<p>“SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years [...] Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection ≥3 years after initial exposure.” <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/">Wu LP, Wang NC, Chang YH, et al.</a> "Sadly" we'll never know how long SARS immunity would have really lasted, since we eradicated it so quickly. <a href="#fnref37" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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<p>In 2019 at Central Park, hottest month (July) was 79.6°F, coldest month (Jan) was 32.5°F. Difference is 47.1°F, or ~26°C. <a href="https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyannualtemp.pdf">PDF from Weather.gov</a> <a href="#fnref37" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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</li>
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<li id="fn38">
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<p>“We found no significant difference between the probability of testing positive at least once and the probability of a recurrence for the beta-coronaviruses HKU1 and OC43 at 34 weeks after enrollment/first infection.” <a href="http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejls106/galanti_shaman_ms_supp.pdf">Marta Galanti & Jeffrey Shaman (PDF)</a> <a href="#fnref38" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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<p>“SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years [...] Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection ≥3 years after initial exposure.” <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/">Wu LP, Wang NC, Chang YH, et al.</a> "Sadly" we'll never know how long SARS immunity would have really lasted, since we eradicated it so quickly. <a href="#fnref38" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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</li>
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<li id="fn39">
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<p>“Once a person fights off a virus, viral particles tend to linger for some time. These cannot cause infections, but they can trigger a positive test.” <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/20/everything-we-know-about-coronavirus-immunity-and-antibodies-and-plenty-we-still-dont/">from STAT News by Andrew Joseph</a> <a href="#fnref39" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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<p>“We found no significant difference between the probability of testing positive at least once and the probability of a recurrence for the beta-coronaviruses HKU1 and OC43 at 34 weeks after enrollment/first infection.” <a href="http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejls106/galanti_shaman_ms_supp.pdf">Marta Galanti & Jeffrey Shaman (PDF)</a> <a href="#fnref39" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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</li>
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<li id="fn40">
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<p>From <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226v1.abstract">Bao et al.</a> <em>Disclaimer: This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review (yet).</em> Also, to emphasize: they only tested re-infection 28 days later. <a href="#fnref40" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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<p>“Once a person fights off a virus, viral particles tend to linger for some time. These cannot cause infections, but they can trigger a positive test.” <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/20/everything-we-know-about-coronavirus-immunity-and-antibodies-and-plenty-we-still-dont/">from STAT News by Andrew Joseph</a> <a href="#fnref40" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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</li>
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<li id="fn41">
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<p>“If a coronavirus vaccine arrives, can the world make enough?” <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01063-8">by Roxanne Khamsi, on Nature</a> <a href="#fnref41" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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<p>From <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226v1.abstract">Bao et al.</a> <em>Disclaimer: This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review (yet).</em> Also, to emphasize: they only tested re-infection 28 days later. <a href="#fnref41" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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</li>
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<li id="fn42">
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<p>“Don’t rush to deploy COVID-19 vaccines and drugs without sufficient safety guarantees” <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00751-9">by Shibo Jiang, on Nature</a> <a href="#fnref42" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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<p>“If a coronavirus vaccine arrives, can the world make enough?” <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01063-8">by Roxanne Khamsi, on Nature</a> <a href="#fnref42" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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</li>
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<li id="fn43">
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<p>Dry land metaphor <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/01/navigating-covid-19-pandemic/">from Marc Lipsitch & Yonatan Grad, on STAT News</a> <a href="#fnref43" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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<p>“Don’t rush to deploy COVID-19 vaccines and drugs without sufficient safety guarantees” <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00751-9">by Shibo Jiang, on Nature</a> <a href="#fnref43" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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</li>
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<li id="fn44">
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<p>Dry land metaphor <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/01/navigating-covid-19-pandemic/">from Marc Lipsitch & Yonatan Grad, on STAT News</a> <a href="#fnref44" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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</article>
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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@ -25,8 +25,8 @@ let interventionStrengths = [
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['distancing', 0.7],
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['isolate', 0.4],
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['quarantine', 0.5],
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['masks', 0.35], // 3.4 fold reduction (70%) (what CI?), subtract points for... improper usage? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3591312/ // cloth masks...
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['summer', 0.4] // 15°C diff * 0.0225 (Wang et al)
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['masks', 0.35],
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['summer', 0.31] // ACK
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];
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let updateModel = (days, fake)=>{
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@ -413,7 +413,7 @@ the <em>second</em>-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:</p>
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<p><img src="pics/masks.png" alt=""></p>
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<p>To put a number on it: surgical masks <em>on the sick person</em> reduce cold & flu viruses in aerosols by 70%.<sup id="fnref31"><a href="#fn31" rel="footnote">31</a></sup> Reducing transmissions by 70% would be as large an impact as a lockdown!</p>
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<p>To put a number on it: surgical masks <em>on the infectious person</em> reduce cold & flu viruses in aerosols by 70%.<sup id="fnref31"><a href="#fn31" rel="footnote">31</a></sup> Reducing transmissions by 70% would be as large an impact as a lockdown!</p>
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<p>However, we don't know for sure the impact of masks on COVID-19 <em>specifically</em>. In science, one should only publish a finding if you're 95% sure of it. (...should.<sup id="fnref32"><a href="#fn32" rel="footnote">32</a></sup>) Masks, as of May 1st 2020, are less than "95% sure".</p>
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@ -435,7 +435,7 @@ the <em>second</em>-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:</p>
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<p>Okay, this isn't an "intervention" we can control, but it will help! Some news outlets report that summer won't do anything to COVID-19. They're half right: summer won't get R < 1, but it <em>will</em> reduce R.</p>
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<p>For COVID-19, every extra 1° Celsius (2.2° Fahrenheit) makes R drop by 1.2%.<sup id="fnref36"><a href="#fn36" rel="footnote">36</a></sup> The summer-winter difference in New York City is 15°C (60°F), so summer will make R drop by 18%.</p>
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<p>For COVID-19, every extra 1° Celsius (1.8° Fahrenheit) makes R drop by 1.2%.<sup id="fnref36"><a href="#fn36" rel="footnote">36</a></sup> The summer-winter difference in New York City is 26°C (47°F),<sup id="fnref37"><a href="#fn37" rel="footnote">37</a></sup> so summer will make R drop by ~31%.</p>
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<div class="sim">
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<iframe src="sim?stage=int-6b&format=calc" width="285" height="220"></iframe>
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@ -495,10 +495,10 @@ the <em>second</em>-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:</p>
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<p>...<em>for how long?</em></p>
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<ul>
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<li>COVID-19 is most closely related to SARS, which gave its survivors 2 years of immunity.<sup id="fnref37"><a href="#fn37" rel="footnote">37</a></sup></li>
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<li>The coronaviruses that cause "the" common cold give you 8 months of immunity.<sup id="fnref38"><a href="#fn38" rel="footnote">38</a></sup></li>
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<li>There's reports of folks recovering from COVID-19, then testing positive again, but it's unclear if these are false positives.<sup id="fnref39"><a href="#fn39" rel="footnote">39</a></sup></li>
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<li>One <em>not-yet-peer-reviewed</em> study on monkeys showed immunity to the COVID-19 coronavirus for at least 28 days.<sup id="fnref40"><a href="#fn40" rel="footnote">40</a></sup></li>
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<li>COVID-19 is most closely related to SARS, which gave its survivors 2 years of immunity.<sup id="fnref38"><a href="#fn38" rel="footnote">38</a></sup></li>
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<li>The coronaviruses that cause "the" common cold give you 8 months of immunity.<sup id="fnref39"><a href="#fn39" rel="footnote">39</a></sup></li>
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<li>There's reports of folks recovering from COVID-19, then testing positive again, but it's unclear if these are false positives.<sup id="fnref40"><a href="#fn40" rel="footnote">40</a></sup></li>
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<li>One <em>not-yet-peer-reviewed</em> study on monkeys showed immunity to the COVID-19 coronavirus for at least 28 days.<sup id="fnref41"><a href="#fn41" rel="footnote">41</a></sup></li>
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</ul>
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<p>But for COVID-19 <em>in humans</em>, as of May 1st 2020, "how long" is the big unknown.</p>
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@ -550,7 +550,7 @@ the <em>second</em>-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:</p>
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<p><strong>To be clear: this is unlikely.</strong> Most epidemiologists expect a vaccine in 1 to 2 years. Sure, there's never been a vaccine for any of the other coronaviruses before, but that's because SARS was eradicated quickly, and "the" common cold wasn't worth the investment. </p>
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<p>Still, infectious disease researchers have expressed worries: What if we can't make enough?<sup id="fnref41"><a href="#fn41" rel="footnote">41</a></sup> What if we rush it, and it's not safe?<sup id="fnref42"><a href="#fn42" rel="footnote">42</a></sup></p>
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<p>Still, infectious disease researchers have expressed worries: What if we can't make enough?<sup id="fnref42"><a href="#fn42" rel="footnote">42</a></sup> What if we rush it, and it's not safe?<sup id="fnref43"><a href="#fn43" rel="footnote">43</a></sup></p>
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<p>Even in the nightmare "no-vaccine" scenario, we still have 3 ways out. From most to least terrible:</p>
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@ -589,7 +589,7 @@ the <em>second</em>-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<p>Plane's sunk. We've scrambled onto the life rafts. It's time to find dry land.<sup id="fnref43"><a href="#fn43" rel="footnote">43</a></sup></p>
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<p>Plane's sunk. We've scrambled onto the life rafts. It's time to find dry land.<sup id="fnref44"><a href="#fn44" rel="footnote">44</a></sup></p>
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<p>Teams of epidemiologists and policymakers (<a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/healthcare/news/2020/04/03/482613/national-state-plan-end-coronavirus-crisis/">left</a>, <a href="https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/">right</a>, and <a href="https://ethics.harvard.edu/covid-roadmap">multi-partisan</a>) have come to a consensus on how to beat COVID-19, while protecting our lives <em>and</em> liberties.</p>
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@ -801,31 +801,35 @@ the <em>second</em>-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:</p>
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</li>
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<li id="fn37">
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<p>“SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years [...] Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection ≥3 years after initial exposure.” <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/">Wu LP, Wang NC, Chang YH, et al.</a> "Sadly" we'll never know how long SARS immunity would have really lasted, since we eradicated it so quickly. <a href="#fnref37" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
|
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<p>In 2019 at Central Park, hottest month (July) was 79.6°F, coldest month (Jan) was 32.5°F. Difference is 47.1°F, or ~26°C. <a href="https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyannualtemp.pdf">PDF from Weather.gov</a> <a href="#fnref37" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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</li>
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<li id="fn38">
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<p>“We found no significant difference between the probability of testing positive at least once and the probability of a recurrence for the beta-coronaviruses HKU1 and OC43 at 34 weeks after enrollment/first infection.” <a href="http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejls106/galanti_shaman_ms_supp.pdf">Marta Galanti & Jeffrey Shaman (PDF)</a> <a href="#fnref38" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
|
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<p>“SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years [...] Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection ≥3 years after initial exposure.” <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/">Wu LP, Wang NC, Chang YH, et al.</a> "Sadly" we'll never know how long SARS immunity would have really lasted, since we eradicated it so quickly. <a href="#fnref38" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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</li>
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<li id="fn39">
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<p>“Once a person fights off a virus, viral particles tend to linger for some time. These cannot cause infections, but they can trigger a positive test.” <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/20/everything-we-know-about-coronavirus-immunity-and-antibodies-and-plenty-we-still-dont/">from STAT News by Andrew Joseph</a> <a href="#fnref39" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
|
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<p>“We found no significant difference between the probability of testing positive at least once and the probability of a recurrence for the beta-coronaviruses HKU1 and OC43 at 34 weeks after enrollment/first infection.” <a href="http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejls106/galanti_shaman_ms_supp.pdf">Marta Galanti & Jeffrey Shaman (PDF)</a> <a href="#fnref39" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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</li>
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<li id="fn40">
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<p>From <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226v1.abstract">Bao et al.</a> <em>Disclaimer: This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review (yet).</em> Also, to emphasize: they only tested re-infection 28 days later. <a href="#fnref40" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
|
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<p>“Once a person fights off a virus, viral particles tend to linger for some time. These cannot cause infections, but they can trigger a positive test.” <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/20/everything-we-know-about-coronavirus-immunity-and-antibodies-and-plenty-we-still-dont/">from STAT News by Andrew Joseph</a> <a href="#fnref40" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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</li>
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<li id="fn41">
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<p>“If a coronavirus vaccine arrives, can the world make enough?” <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01063-8">by Roxanne Khamsi, on Nature</a> <a href="#fnref41" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
|
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<p>From <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226v1.abstract">Bao et al.</a> <em>Disclaimer: This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review (yet).</em> Also, to emphasize: they only tested re-infection 28 days later. <a href="#fnref41" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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</li>
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<li id="fn42">
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<p>“Don’t rush to deploy COVID-19 vaccines and drugs without sufficient safety guarantees” <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00751-9">by Shibo Jiang, on Nature</a> <a href="#fnref42" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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<p>“If a coronavirus vaccine arrives, can the world make enough?” <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01063-8">by Roxanne Khamsi, on Nature</a> <a href="#fnref42" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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</li>
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<li id="fn43">
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<p>Dry land metaphor <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/01/navigating-covid-19-pandemic/">from Marc Lipsitch & Yonatan Grad, on STAT News</a> <a href="#fnref43" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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<p>“Don’t rush to deploy COVID-19 vaccines and drugs without sufficient safety guarantees” <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00751-9">by Shibo Jiang, on Nature</a> <a href="#fnref43" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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</li>
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<li id="fn44">
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<p>Dry land metaphor <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/01/navigating-covid-19-pandemic/">from Marc Lipsitch & Yonatan Grad, on STAT News</a> <a href="#fnref44" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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</li>
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</ol>
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@ -496,7 +496,7 @@ You're right. Masks don't stop you from getting sick[^incoming]... they stop you
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To put a number on it: surgical masks *on the sick person* reduce cold & flu viruses in aerosols by 70%.[^outgoing] Reducing transmissions by 70% would be as large an impact as a lockdown!
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To put a number on it: surgical masks *on the infectious person* reduce cold & flu viruses in aerosols by 70%.[^outgoing] Reducing transmissions by 70% would be as large an impact as a lockdown!
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However, we don't know for sure the impact of masks on COVID-19 *specifically*. In science, one should only publish a finding if you're 95% sure of it. (...should.[^replication]) Masks, as of May 1st 2020, are less than "95% sure".
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@ -530,10 +530,12 @@ Masks *alone* won't get R < 1. But if handwashing & "Test, Trace, Isolate" only
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Okay, this isn't an "intervention" we can control, but it will help! Some news outlets report that summer won't do anything to COVID-19. They're half right: summer won't get R < 1, but it *will* reduce R.
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For COVID-19, every extra 1° Celsius (2.2° Fahrenheit) makes R drop by 1.2%.[^heat] The summer-winter difference in New York City is 15°C (60°F), so summer will make R drop by 18%.
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For COVID-19, every extra 1° Celsius (1.8° Fahrenheit) makes R drop by 1.2%.[^heat] The summer-winter difference in New York City is 26°C (47°F),[^nyc_heat] so summer will make R drop by ~31%.
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[^heat]: “One-degree Celsius increase in temperature [...] lower[s] R by 0.0225” and “The average R-value of these 100 cities is 1.83”. 0.0225 ÷ 1.83 = ~1.2%. [Wang, Jingyuan and Tang, Ke and Feng, Kai and Lv, Weifeng](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767)
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[^nyc_heat]: In 2019 at Central Park, hottest month (July) was 79.6°F, coldest month (Jan) was 32.5°F. Difference is 47.1°F, or ~26°C. [PDF from Weather.gov](https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyannualtemp.pdf)
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Reference in a new issue