taiwanese translation and mask fixes also link archive
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Nicky Case
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@ -287,7 +287,7 @@
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<h3 id="toc_0">Scenario 0: Do Absolutely Nothing</h3>
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<p><em>Roughly</em> around 1 in 20 people infected with COVID-19 need to go to an ICU (Intensive Care Unit).<sup id="fnref13"><a href="#fn13" rel="footnote">13</a></sup> In a rich country like the USA, there's 1 ICU bed per 3400 people.<sup id="fnref14"><a href="#fn14" rel="footnote">14</a></sup> Therefore, the USA can handle 20 out of 3400 people being <em>simultaneously</em> infected – or, 0.6% of the population.</p>
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<p><em>Roughly</em> 1 in 20 people infected with COVID-19 need to go to an ICU (Intensive Care Unit).<sup id="fnref13"><a href="#fn13" rel="footnote">13</a></sup> In a rich country like the USA, there's 1 ICU bed per 3400 people.<sup id="fnref14"><a href="#fn14" rel="footnote">14</a></sup> Therefore, the USA can handle 20 out of 3400 people being <em>simultaneously</em> infected – or, 0.6% of the population.</p>
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<p>Even if we <em>more than tripled</em> that capacity to 2%, here's what would've happened <em>if we did absolutely nothing:</em></p>
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@ -475,6 +475,8 @@
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<p>You're right. Masks don't stop you from getting sick<sup id="fnref31"><a href="#fn31" rel="footnote">31</a></sup>... they stop you from getting <em>others</em> sick.</p>
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<p>But wait – how can a simple piece of fabric block droplets in one direction, <em>but not the other?</em> The answer's counter-intuitive, yet simple:</p>
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<p><img src="pics/masks.png" alt=""></p>
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<p>To put a number on it: surgical masks <em>on the infectious person</em> reduce cold & flu viruses in aerosols by 70%.<sup id="fnref32"><a href="#fn32" rel="footnote">32</a></sup> Reducing transmissions by 70% would be as large an impact as a lockdown!</p>
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@ -746,7 +748,7 @@
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<li id="fn13">
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<p><strong>[UPDATED MAY 15]</strong> Many of you rightly pointed out that our previous citation for "<strong>1 in 20</strong> need hospitalization" was based off old USA data on <em>confirmed</em> cases – which was way lower than the <em>real</em> number of cases, due to lack of tests. <a href="#fnref13" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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<p>So, let's look at the country with the <em>most</em> tests per capita: Iceland. As of May 15th, 2020, they had 115 hospitalized among 1802 confirmed cases ≈ 6.4% hospitalization rate, or <strong>1 in 16</strong>.</p>
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<p>So, let's look at the country with the <em>most</em> tests per capita: Iceland. <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20200516012656/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Iceland">On May 15th, 2020</a>, they had 115 hospitalized among 1802 confirmed cases ≈ 6.4% hospitalization rate, or <strong>1 in 16</strong>.</p>
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<p><a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/12/science.abc3517">A more recent study of COVID-19 in France</a> – using not just official confirmed cases but also antibody test data – found that “3.6% of infected individuals are hospitalized”. Or, <strong>1 in 28.</strong></p>
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@ -223,7 +223,7 @@ the <em>second</em>-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:</p>
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<h3 id="toc_0">Scenario 0: Do Absolutely Nothing</h3>
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<p><em>Roughly</em> around 1 in 20 people infected with COVID-19 need to go to an ICU (Intensive Care Unit).<sup id="fnref13"><a href="#fn13" rel="footnote">13</a></sup> In a rich country like the USA, there's 1 ICU bed per 3400 people.<sup id="fnref14"><a href="#fn14" rel="footnote">14</a></sup> Therefore, the USA can handle 20 out of 3400 people being <em>simultaneously</em> infected – or, 0.6% of the population.</p>
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<p><em>Roughly</em> 1 in 20 people infected with COVID-19 need to go to an ICU (Intensive Care Unit).<sup id="fnref13"><a href="#fn13" rel="footnote">13</a></sup> In a rich country like the USA, there's 1 ICU bed per 3400 people.<sup id="fnref14"><a href="#fn14" rel="footnote">14</a></sup> Therefore, the USA can handle 20 out of 3400 people being <em>simultaneously</em> infected – or, 0.6% of the population.</p>
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<p>Even if we <em>more than tripled</em> that capacity to 2%, here's what would've happened <em>if we did absolutely nothing:</em></p>
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@ -411,6 +411,8 @@ the <em>second</em>-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:</p>
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<p>You're right. Masks don't stop you from getting sick<sup id="fnref31"><a href="#fn31" rel="footnote">31</a></sup>... they stop you from getting <em>others</em> sick.</p>
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<p>But wait – how can a simple piece of fabric block droplets in one direction, <em>but not the other?</em> The answer's counter-intuitive, yet simple:</p>
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<p><img src="pics/masks.png" alt=""></p>
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<p>To put a number on it: surgical masks <em>on the infectious person</em> reduce cold & flu viruses in aerosols by 70%.<sup id="fnref32"><a href="#fn32" rel="footnote">32</a></sup> Reducing transmissions by 70% would be as large an impact as a lockdown!</p>
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@ -682,7 +684,7 @@ the <em>second</em>-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:</p>
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<li id="fn13">
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<p><strong>[UPDATED MAY 15]</strong> Many of you rightly pointed out that our previous citation for "<strong>1 in 20</strong> need hospitalization" was based off old USA data on <em>confirmed</em> cases – which was way lower than the <em>real</em> number of cases, due to lack of tests. <a href="#fnref13" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
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<p>So, let's look at the country with the <em>most</em> tests per capita: Iceland. As of May 15th, 2020, they had 115 hospitalized among 1802 confirmed cases ≈ 6.4% hospitalization rate, or <strong>1 in 16</strong>.</p>
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<p>So, let's look at the country with the <em>most</em> tests per capita: Iceland. <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20200516012656/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Iceland">On May 15th, 2020</a>, they had 115 hospitalized among 1802 confirmed cases ≈ 6.4% hospitalization rate, or <strong>1 in 16</strong>.</p>
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<p><a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/12/science.abc3517">A more recent study of COVID-19 in France</a> – using not just official confirmed cases but also antibody test data – found that “3.6% of infected individuals are hospitalized”. Or, <strong>1 in 28.</strong></p>
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@ -249,11 +249,11 @@ Brace yourselves for an emergency landing...
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###Scenario 0: Do Absolutely Nothing
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*Roughly* around 1 in 20 people infected with COVID-19 need to go to an ICU (Intensive Care Unit).[^icu_covid] In a rich country like the USA, there's 1 ICU bed per 3400 people.[^icu_us] Therefore, the USA can handle 20 out of 3400 people being *simultaneously* infected – or, 0.6% of the population.
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*Roughly* 1 in 20 people infected with COVID-19 need to go to an ICU (Intensive Care Unit).[^icu_covid] In a rich country like the USA, there's 1 ICU bed per 3400 people.[^icu_us] Therefore, the USA can handle 20 out of 3400 people being *simultaneously* infected – or, 0.6% of the population.
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[^icu_covid]: **[UPDATED MAY 15]** Many of you rightly pointed out that our previous citation for "**1 in 20** need hospitalization" was based off old USA data on *confirmed* cases – which was way lower than the *real* number of cases, due to lack of tests.
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So, let's look at the country with the *most* tests per capita: Iceland. As of May 15th, 2020, they had 115 hospitalized among 1802 confirmed cases ≈ 6.4% hospitalization rate, or **1 in 16**.
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So, let's look at the country with the *most* tests per capita: Iceland. [On May 15th, 2020](https://web.archive.org/web/20200516012656/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Iceland), they had 115 hospitalized among 1802 confirmed cases ≈ 6.4% hospitalization rate, or **1 in 16**.
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[A more recent study of COVID-19 in France](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/12/science.abc3517) – using not just official confirmed cases but also antibody test data – found that “3.6% of infected individuals are hospitalized”. Or, **1 in 28.**
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@ -506,6 +506,8 @@ You're right. Masks don't stop you from getting sick[^incoming]... they stop you
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[^homemade]: [Davies, A., Thompson, K., Giri, K., Kafatos, G., Walker, J., & Bennett, A](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/disaster-medicine-and-public-health-preparedness/article/testing-the-efficacy-of-homemade-masks-would-they-protect-in-an-influenza-pandemic/0921A05A69A9419C862FA2F35F819D55) See Table 1: a 100% cotton T-shirt has around 2/3 the filtration efficiency as a surgical mask, for the two bacterial aerosols they tested.
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But wait – how can a simple piece of fabric block droplets in one direction, *but not the other?* The answer's counter-intuitive, yet simple:
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To put a number on it: surgical masks *on the infectious person* reduce cold & flu viruses in aerosols by 70%.[^outgoing] Reducing transmissions by 70% would be as large an impact as a lockdown!
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