Ok it's ready to share for feedback jeez here we gooooo
This commit is contained in:
Nicky Case
parent
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commit
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7 changed files with 205 additions and 35 deletions
28
index.html
28
index.html
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@ -59,6 +59,8 @@
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<p>It's estimated that, <em>at the start</em> of a COVID-19 outbreak, the virus jumps from an <icon i></icon> to an <icon s></icon> <em>approximately</em> every 4 days.<sup id="fnref2"><a href="#fn2" rel="footnote">2</a></sup></p>
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<p>[TODO: Actually fill out source / footnotes]</p>
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<p>If we simulate "double every 4 days" <em>and nothing else</em>, on a population starting with just 0.001% <icon i></icon>, what happens? </p>
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<p><strong>Click "Start" to play the simulation! You can re-play it later with different settings:</strong> (technical caveats: <sup id="fnref3"><a href="#fn3" rel="footnote">3</a></sup>)</p>
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@ -251,8 +253,6 @@
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<p>That was the other finding of the March 16 Imperial College report, which convinced the UK to abandon its original plan. Any attempt at <strong>mitigation</strong> (reduce R, but R > 1) will fail. The only way out is <strong>suppression</strong> (reduce R so that R < 1).</p>
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<p>// pic: difference </p>
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<p>That is, don't merely "flatten" the curve, <em>crush</em> the curve. For example, with a...</p>
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<h3 id="toc_2">Scenario 2: Months-Long Lockdown</h3>
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@ -339,7 +339,7 @@
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<iframe src="sim?stage=int-4a&format=calc" width="285" height="340"></iframe>
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</div>
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<p>Thus, we can get R < 1 <em>without a lockdown!</em> Much better for our mental & financial health. (As for the cost to folks who have to self-isolate/quarantine, <em>governments should support them</em> – subsidized paid leave, job protection, etc. Still way cheaper than intermittent lockdown.)</p>
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<p>Thus, even without 100% contact quarantining, we can get R < 1 <em>without a lockdown!</em> Much better for our mental & financial health. (As for the cost to folks who have to self-isolate/quarantine, <em>governments should support them</em> – subsidized paid leave, job protection, etc. Still way cheaper than intermittent lockdown.)</p>
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<p>We then keep R < 1 until we have a vaccine, which turns susceptible <icon s></icon>s into immune <icon r></icon>s. Herd immunity, the <em>right</em> way:</p>
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@ -396,6 +396,8 @@
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<p><strong>Here's a calculator of how masks reduce R! You can switch between cloth & surgical:</strong> (assumes cloth masks are half as effective as surgical masks<sup id="fnref32"><a href="#fn32" rel="footnote">32</a></sup>)</p>
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<p>[TODO: Actually allow toggling between cloth/surgical. Currently locked to cloth]</p>
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<div class="sim">
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<iframe src="sim?stage=int-6a&format=calc" width="285" height="380"></iframe>
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</div>
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@ -410,6 +412,8 @@
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<p>For COVID-19, every extra 1° Celsius (2.2° Fahrenheit) makes R drop by 1.2%.<sup id="fnref34"><a href="#fn34" rel="footnote">34</a></sup> The summer-winter difference in New York City is 15°C (60°F), so summer will make R drop by 18%.</p>
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<p>[TODO: Fix weird arrow glitch]</p>
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<div class="sim">
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<iframe src="sim?stage=int-6b&format=calc" width="285" height="220"></iframe>
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</div>
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@ -434,6 +438,8 @@
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<iframe src="sim?stage=int-7&format=lines&height=620" width="800" height="620"></iframe>
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</div>
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<p>[TODO: Other options like temperature testing at malls, quarantines for travellers, replacing handshaking, etc]</p>
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<p>. . .</p>
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<p>We hope these plans give you hope. </p>
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@ -490,7 +496,9 @@
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<iframe src="sim?stage=yrs-3&format=lines&height=640" width="800" height="640"></iframe>
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</div>
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<p>Oh. Counterintuitively, summer makes the spikes <em>worse</em>, and regular! This is because summer reduces new <icon i></icon>s, but that in turn reduces new immune <icon r></icon>s. Which means immunity plummets in the summer, <em>creating</em> large regular spikes in the winter.</p>
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<p>Oh.</p>
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<p>Counterintuitively, summer makes the spikes worse <em>and</em> regular! This is because summer reduces new <icon i></icon>s, but that in turn reduces new immune <icon r></icon>s. Which means immunity plummets in the summer, <em>creating</em> large regular spikes in the winter.</p>
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<p>Thankfully, the solution to this is pretty straightforward – just vaccinate people every fall/winter, like we do with flu shots:</p>
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@ -516,7 +524,7 @@
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<p>3) Do the R < 1 interventions until we develop treatments that make COVID-19 way, way less likely to need critical care. (Which we should be doing <em>anyway!</em>) Reducing ICU use by 10x is the same as increasing our ICU capacity by 10x:</p>
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<p><strong>Here's a simulation of <em>no</em> lasting immunity, <em>no</em> vaccine, and not even any interventions – just increasing ICU capacity to survive the long-term spikes:</strong></p>
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<p><strong>Here's a simulation of <em>no</em> lasting immunity, <em>no</em> vaccine, and not even any interventions – just slowly increasing capacity to survive the long-term spikes:</strong></p>
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<div class="sim">
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<iframe src="sim?stage=yrs-5&format=lines" width="800" height="540"></iframe>
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@ -530,7 +538,11 @@
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<p><strong>Here's an (optional) Sandbox Mode, with <em>everything</em> available. Simulate & play around to your heart's content:</strong></p>
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<p>[TODO TODO TODO!]</p>
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<p>[TODO: EMBED THIS IN A WAY THAT DOESN'T SUCK]</p>
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<div class="sim">
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<iframe src="sim?stage=SB&format=sb&height=1000" width="800" height="1000"></iframe>
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</div>
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<p>This basic "epidemic flight simulator" has taught us so much. It's let us answer questions about the past few months, next few months, and next few years.</p>
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@ -562,6 +574,8 @@
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<p>The only thing to fear is the idea that the only thing to fear is fear itself.</p>
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<p><strong>{ Please let me know what you think! How did it feel overall, any parts in particular that went too slow or were too confusing, factual inaccuracies, nuances I missed, stuff I oughta mention, etc. Thank you! }</strong></p>
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<div class="footnotes">
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<hr>
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<ol>
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@ -729,6 +743,8 @@
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</article>
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</body>
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@ -211,6 +211,12 @@
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Once you're done playing around,
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scroll down to keep reading!
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</span>
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<span id="pointer_replay">
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This simulation has a "recorded scenario"!
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<br>
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Click "Start" to watch the recording <i>before</i>
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you change any of the numbers
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</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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@ -219,6 +219,13 @@ bbDOM.onclick = ()=>{
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}
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}
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if(CURRENT_STAGE.SHOW_HAND=="tutorial_2"){
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if(handTutorial==0){
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hideHand();
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handTutorial = 1;
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}
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}
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if(daysCurrent>daysTotal || params._HACK_RESET_WHEN_I_100=="go" || params._HACK_RESET_WHEN_R_100=="go"){
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_resetTheSim();
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@ -255,7 +262,6 @@ let defaultParams = [
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["p_distancing", 0],
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["p_isolate", 0],
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["p_quarantine", 0],
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["p_cleaning", 0],
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["p_masks", 0],
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["p_summer", 0],
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];
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@ -382,6 +388,15 @@ let showHand = (position)=>{
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wordsDOM.style.textAlign = 'center';
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$('#pointer_scroll').style.display = 'inline';
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break;
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case 'recording':
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handDOM.style.top = '300px';
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handDOM.style.left = '280px';
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handDOM.style.transform = 'rotate(270deg)';
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wordsDOM.style.top = '317px';
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wordsDOM.style.left = '377px';
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wordsDOM.style.textAlign = 'left';
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$('#pointer_replay').style.display = 'inline';
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break;
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}
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130
sim/js/Model.js
130
sim/js/Model.js
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@ -8,7 +8,6 @@ let int = {
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distancing: 0,
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isolate: 0,
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quarantine: 0,
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cleaning: 0,
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masks: 0,
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summer: 0,
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vaccines: 0
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@ -26,8 +25,7 @@ let interventionStrengths = [
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['distancing', 0.7],
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['isolate', 0.4],
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['quarantine', 0.5],
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['cleaning', 0.1],
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['masks', 0.35], // 3.4 fold reduction (70%) (what CI?), subtract points for... improper usage? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3591312/ // cloth masks...
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['masks', 0.35*0.5], // 3.4 fold reduction (70%) (what CI?), subtract points for... improper usage? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3591312/ // cloth masks...
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['summer', 0.333] // 15°C diff * 0.0225 (Wang et al)
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];
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@ -62,7 +60,6 @@ let updateModel = (days, fake)=>{
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int.distancing = params.p_distancing;
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int.isolate = params.p_isolate;
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int.quarantine = params.p_quarantine;
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int.cleaning = params.p_cleaning;
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int.masks = params.p_masks;
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int.summer = (1 - Math.cos((daysCurrent-30)/365 * Math.TAU))/2;
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@ -151,16 +148,123 @@ canvas.style.height = (canvas.height/2)+"px";
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let interventionColors = [
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['non_s', '#bbbbbb'],
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['hygiene', 'hsl(230,100%,63%)', 0.1],
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['distancing', 'hsl(200,100%,63%)', 0.2],
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['isolate', 'hsl(140,100%,63%)', 0.2],
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['quarantine', 'hsl(100,100%,63%)', 0.2],
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['cleaning', 'hsl(290,100%,63%)', 0.2],
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['masks', 'hsl(260,100%,63%)', 0.2],
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['summer', 'hsl(20,100%,63%)', 0.3],
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['vaccines', 'hsl(53, 100%, 73%)', 0.6],
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['hygiene', '#40AEFF', 0.1],
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['distancing', '#405CFF', 0.2],
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['isolate', '#8FD68A', 0.2],
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['quarantine', '#75AD6F', 0.2],
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['masks', '#9240FF', 0.2],
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['summer', '#FF8142', 0.3],
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['vaccines', '#FFDF40', 0.6],
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];
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// SUPER HACK SLIDER COLORS
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// I hate browsers (thx https://stackoverflow.com/a/13348618 )
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let isThisFrikkinChrome = false;
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{
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var isChromium = window.chrome;
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var winNav = window.navigator;
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var vendorName = winNav.vendor;
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var isOpera = typeof window.opr !== "undefined";
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var isIEedge = winNav.userAgent.indexOf("Edge") > -1;
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var isIOSChrome = winNav.userAgent.match("CriOS");
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if (isIOSChrome) {
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// is Google Chrome on IOS
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isThisFrikkinChrome = true;
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} else if(
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isChromium !== null &&
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typeof isChromium !== "undefined" &&
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vendorName === "Google Inc." &&
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isOpera === false &&
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isIEedge === false
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) {
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// is Google Chrome
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isThisFrikkinChrome = true;
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} else {
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// not Google Chrome
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isThisFrikkinChrome = false;
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}
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}
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let sliderColors = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(interventionColors));
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sliderColors.shift();
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sliderColors.push([ 'hospital', '#000' ]);
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let hackStyle = '';
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sliderColors.forEach((icPair, i)=>{
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if(i==0) return;
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let [name,color] = icPair;
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// Huge thanks to this person https://stackoverflow.com/a/38163892
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if(isThisFrikkinChrome){
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hackStyle += `
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@media screen and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio:0) {
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input#p_${name} {
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overflow: hidden;
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-webkit-appearance: none;
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background-color: #dddddd;
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}
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input#p_${name}::-webkit-slider-runnable-track {
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height: 10px;
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-webkit-appearance: none;
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color: ${color};
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margin-top: -1px;
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}
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input#p_${name}::-webkit-slider-thumb {
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width: 10px;
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-webkit-appearance: none;
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height: 9px;
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cursor: ew-resize;
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background: ${color};
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color: ${color};
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border:1px solid rgba(0,0,0,0.5);
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position:relative;
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top:1px;
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cursor:grab;
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box-shadow: -250px 0 0 250px;
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}
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}
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`;
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}else{
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hackStyle += `
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input#p_${name}::-moz-range-progress {
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background-color: ${color};
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}
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input#p_${name}::-moz-range-track {
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background-color: #dddddd;
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}
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input#p_${name}::-moz-range-thumb {
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background: ${color};
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border-color: ${color};
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cursor: grab;
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}
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input#p_${name}::-ms-fill-lower {
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background-color: ${color};
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}
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input#p_${name}::-ms-fill-upper {
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background-color: #dddddd;
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}
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input#p_${name}::-ms-thumb {
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background: ${color};
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border-color: ${color};
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cursor: grab;
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}
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`;
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}
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});
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let hackStyleDOM = document.createElement('style');
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hackStyleDOM.innerHTML = hackStyle;
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document.head.appendChild(hackStyleDOM);
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let _isItPastHerd = false;
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let label_p_r0 = $('#label_p_r0');
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@ -268,12 +372,14 @@ let show_percent_s = $('#show_percent_s'),
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show_percent_i = $('#show_percent_i'),
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show_percent_r = $('#show_percent_r'),
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herdDOM = $('.herd');
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let draw = ()=>{
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// Redraw
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requestAnimationFrame(draw);
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// SUCH A HACK
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if(!CURRENT_STAGE) return;
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if(CURRENT_STAGE._HACK_MAKE_TIME_KEEP_GOING){
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daysTotal = Infinity;
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daysCurrent += 1;
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@ -302,7 +302,8 @@ const STAGES = {
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["p_distancing",0.275,84], ["p_hygiene",1,84],
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["p_distancing",0,340], ["p_hygiene",0,340],
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],
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SIR: [0.999995,0.000005,0]
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SIR: [0.999995,0.000005,0],
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SHOW_HAND: "tutorial_2"
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},
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"int-3": {
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@ -325,7 +326,8 @@ const STAGES = {
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["p_distancing",1,84], ["p_hygiene",1,84],
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["p_distancing",0,234], ["p_hygiene",0,234]
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],
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SIR: [0.999995,0.000005,0]
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SIR: [0.999995,0.000005,0],
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SHOW_HAND: "tutorial_2"
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},
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"int-4": {
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@ -355,7 +357,8 @@ const STAGES = {
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["p_distancing",0,90+68+54+73+73+73+87+58],
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["p_distancing",1,90+68+54+73+73+73+87+58+108],
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],
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SIR: [0.999995,0.000005,0]
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SIR: [0.999995,0.000005,0],
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SHOW_HAND: "tutorial_2"
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},
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"int-4a": {
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@ -432,7 +435,8 @@ const STAGES = {
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["p_vaccines",0.61,550],
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["p_vaccines",0,580],
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],
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SIR: [0.999995,0.000005,0]
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SIR: [0.999995,0.000005,0],
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SHOW_HAND: "tutorial_2"
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},
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"int-6a": {
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@ -531,7 +535,8 @@ const STAGES = {
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["p_vaccines",0,580],
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],
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SIR: [0.999995,0.000005,0]
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SIR: [0.999995,0.000005,0],
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SHOW_HAND: "tutorial_2"
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},
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@ -655,6 +660,7 @@ const STAGES = {
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],
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SHOW_ALL_AT_START: true,
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SHOW_HAND: "tutorial_2"
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//SIR: [0.09,0.01,0.9]
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},
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@ -687,7 +693,8 @@ const STAGES = {
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["p_hospital",750,365*2],
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["p_hospital",1000,365*3]
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]
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],
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SHOW_HAND: "tutorial_2"
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},
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//////////////////////////////////////////
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@ -777,7 +784,11 @@ let setStage = (stageID)=>{
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// Show hand?
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if(stage.SHOW_HAND){
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showHand('start');
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if(stage.SHOW_HAND=="tutorial_2"){
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showHand('recording');
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}else{
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showHand('start');
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}
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}
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// Show herd immunity?
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@ -46,6 +46,8 @@
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|
||||
<p>It's estimated that, <em>at the start</em> of a COVID-19 outbreak, the virus jumps from an <icon i></icon> to an <icon s></icon> <em>approximately</em> every 4 days.<sup id="fnref2"><a href="#fn2" rel="footnote">2</a></sup></p>
|
||||
|
||||
<p>[TODO: Actually fill out source / footnotes]</p>
|
||||
|
||||
<p>If we simulate "double every 4 days" <em>and nothing else</em>, on a population starting with just 0.001% <icon i></icon>, what happens? </p>
|
||||
|
||||
<p><strong>Click "Start" to play the simulation! You can re-play it later with different settings:</strong> (technical caveats: <sup id="fnref3"><a href="#fn3" rel="footnote">3</a></sup>)</p>
|
||||
|
|
@ -238,8 +240,6 @@
|
|||
|
||||
<p>That was the other finding of the March 16 Imperial College report, which convinced the UK to abandon its original plan. Any attempt at <strong>mitigation</strong> (reduce R, but R > 1) will fail. The only way out is <strong>suppression</strong> (reduce R so that R < 1).</p>
|
||||
|
||||
<p>// pic: difference </p>
|
||||
|
||||
<p>That is, don't merely "flatten" the curve, <em>crush</em> the curve. For example, with a...</p>
|
||||
|
||||
<h3 id="toc_2">Scenario 2: Months-Long Lockdown</h3>
|
||||
|
|
@ -326,7 +326,7 @@
|
|||
<iframe src="sim?stage=int-4a&format=calc" width="285" height="340"></iframe>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<p>Thus, we can get R < 1 <em>without a lockdown!</em> Much better for our mental & financial health. (As for the cost to folks who have to self-isolate/quarantine, <em>governments should support them</em> – subsidized paid leave, job protection, etc. Still way cheaper than intermittent lockdown.)</p>
|
||||
<p>Thus, even without 100% contact quarantining, we can get R < 1 <em>without a lockdown!</em> Much better for our mental & financial health. (As for the cost to folks who have to self-isolate/quarantine, <em>governments should support them</em> – subsidized paid leave, job protection, etc. Still way cheaper than intermittent lockdown.)</p>
|
||||
|
||||
<p>We then keep R < 1 until we have a vaccine, which turns susceptible <icon s></icon>s into immune <icon r></icon>s. Herd immunity, the <em>right</em> way:</p>
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
@ -383,6 +383,8 @@
|
|||
|
||||
<p><strong>Here's a calculator of how masks reduce R! You can switch between cloth & surgical:</strong> (assumes cloth masks are half as effective as surgical masks<sup id="fnref32"><a href="#fn32" rel="footnote">32</a></sup>)</p>
|
||||
|
||||
<p>[TODO: Actually allow toggling between cloth/surgical. Currently locked to cloth]</p>
|
||||
|
||||
<div class="sim">
|
||||
<iframe src="sim?stage=int-6a&format=calc" width="285" height="380"></iframe>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
|
@ -397,6 +399,8 @@
|
|||
|
||||
<p>For COVID-19, every extra 1° Celsius (2.2° Fahrenheit) makes R drop by 1.2%.<sup id="fnref34"><a href="#fn34" rel="footnote">34</a></sup> The summer-winter difference in New York City is 15°C (60°F), so summer will make R drop by 18%.</p>
|
||||
|
||||
<p>[TODO: Fix weird arrow glitch]</p>
|
||||
|
||||
<div class="sim">
|
||||
<iframe src="sim?stage=int-6b&format=calc" width="285" height="220"></iframe>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
|
@ -421,6 +425,8 @@
|
|||
<iframe src="sim?stage=int-7&format=lines&height=620" width="800" height="620"></iframe>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<p>[TODO: Other options like temperature testing at malls, quarantines for travellers, replacing handshaking, etc]</p>
|
||||
|
||||
<p>. . .</p>
|
||||
|
||||
<p>We hope these plans give you hope. </p>
|
||||
|
|
@ -477,7 +483,9 @@
|
|||
<iframe src="sim?stage=yrs-3&format=lines&height=640" width="800" height="640"></iframe>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<p>Oh. Counterintuitively, summer makes the spikes <em>worse</em>, and regular! This is because summer reduces new <icon i></icon>s, but that in turn reduces new immune <icon r></icon>s. Which means immunity plummets in the summer, <em>creating</em> large regular spikes in the winter.</p>
|
||||
<p>Oh.</p>
|
||||
|
||||
<p>Counterintuitively, summer makes the spikes worse <em>and</em> regular! This is because summer reduces new <icon i></icon>s, but that in turn reduces new immune <icon r></icon>s. Which means immunity plummets in the summer, <em>creating</em> large regular spikes in the winter.</p>
|
||||
|
||||
<p>Thankfully, the solution to this is pretty straightforward – just vaccinate people every fall/winter, like we do with flu shots:</p>
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
@ -503,7 +511,7 @@
|
|||
|
||||
<p>3) Do the R < 1 interventions until we develop treatments that make COVID-19 way, way less likely to need critical care. (Which we should be doing <em>anyway!</em>) Reducing ICU use by 10x is the same as increasing our ICU capacity by 10x:</p>
|
||||
|
||||
<p><strong>Here's a simulation of <em>no</em> lasting immunity, <em>no</em> vaccine, and not even any interventions – just increasing ICU capacity to survive the long-term spikes:</strong></p>
|
||||
<p><strong>Here's a simulation of <em>no</em> lasting immunity, <em>no</em> vaccine, and not even any interventions – just slowly increasing capacity to survive the long-term spikes:</strong></p>
|
||||
|
||||
<div class="sim">
|
||||
<iframe src="sim?stage=yrs-5&format=lines" width="800" height="540"></iframe>
|
||||
|
|
@ -517,7 +525,11 @@
|
|||
|
||||
<p><strong>Here's an (optional) Sandbox Mode, with <em>everything</em> available. Simulate & play around to your heart's content:</strong></p>
|
||||
|
||||
<p>[TODO TODO TODO!]</p>
|
||||
<p>[TODO: EMBED THIS IN A WAY THAT DOESN'T SUCK]</p>
|
||||
|
||||
<div class="sim">
|
||||
<iframe src="sim?stage=SB&format=sb&height=1000" width="800" height="1000"></iframe>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<p>This basic "epidemic flight simulator" has taught us so much. It's let us answer questions about the past few months, next few months, and next few years.</p>
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
@ -549,6 +561,8 @@
|
|||
|
||||
<p>The only thing to fear is the idea that the only thing to fear is fear itself.</p>
|
||||
|
||||
<p><strong>{ Please let me know what you think! How did it feel overall, any parts in particular that went too slow or were too confusing, factual inaccuracies, nuances I missed, stuff I oughta mention, etc. Thank you! }</strong></p>
|
||||
|
||||
<div class="footnotes">
|
||||
<hr>
|
||||
<ol>
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -34,6 +34,8 @@ It's estimated that, *at the start* of a COVID-19 outbreak, the virus jumps from
|
|||
|
||||
[^serial_interval]: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0357_article
|
||||
|
||||
[TODO: Actually fill out source / footnotes]
|
||||
|
||||
If we simulate "double every 4 days" *and nothing else*, on a population starting with just 0.001% <icon i></icon>, what happens?
|
||||
|
||||
**Click "Start" to play the simulation! You can re-play it later with different settings:** (technical caveats: [^caveats])
|
||||
|
|
@ -258,8 +260,6 @@ Three notes:
|
|||
|
||||
That was the other finding of the March 16 Imperial College report, which convinced the UK to abandon its original plan. Any attempt at **mitigation** (reduce R, but R > 1) will fail. The only way out is **suppression** (reduce R so that R < 1).
|
||||
|
||||
// pic: difference
|
||||
|
||||
That is, don't merely "flatten" the curve, *crush* the curve. For example, with a...
|
||||
|
||||
###Scenario 2: Months-Long Lockdown
|
||||
|
|
@ -617,4 +617,6 @@ So what does this mean for YOU, right now?
|
|||
|
||||
Don't downplay fear to build up hope. Our fear should *team up* with our hope, like the inventors of airplanes & parachutes. Preparing for horrible futures is how we *create* a hopeful future.
|
||||
|
||||
The only thing to fear is the idea that the only thing to fear is fear itself.
|
||||
The only thing to fear is the idea that the only thing to fear is fear itself.
|
||||
|
||||
**{ Please let me know what you think! How did it feel overall, any parts in particular that went too slow or were too confusing, factual inaccuracies, nuances I missed, stuff I oughta mention, etc. Thank you! }**
|
||||
Loading…
Add table
Reference in a new issue