1710 lines
51 KiB
HTML
1710 lines
51 KiB
HTML
<!--
|
||
|
||
THE WISDOM AND/OR MADNESS OF CROWDS
|
||
by Nicky Case | apr 2018
|
||
|
||
- - - - - - - - - - -
|
||
|
||
FAN TRANSLATION GUIDE:
|
||
https://github.com/ncase/crowds#how-to-translate-this-thing
|
||
|
||
Hello fan-translaters! Thank you so, so much for your help.
|
||
I hope you know what you've gotten yourself into.
|
||
There's about 3600+ WORDS to translate, including
|
||
the Bonus Boxes and References.
|
||
|
||
To make things easier (or less painful, anyway) I've marked
|
||
what needs to be translated and how with big "TRANSLATE" comments.
|
||
Ctrl+F for "TRANSLATE" in uppercase to see what needs to be translated!
|
||
|
||
BUT BEFORE YOU TRANSLATE ANYTHING, DO THIS:
|
||
1) Look up the two-letter code of the language you're translating to:
|
||
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ISO_639-1_codes
|
||
2) *COPY* index.html, and name the copy [two-letter-code].html
|
||
For example: de.html, ar.html, zh.html, etc...
|
||
3) Translate *THAT* page. Do NOT modify the original index.html!
|
||
|
||
And once you're done, go to "translations.txt", and follow the
|
||
instructions there to let this game "know" your translation exists.
|
||
|
||
Good luck, and thanks again!
|
||
|
||
<3,
|
||
~ Nicky Case
|
||
|
||
-->
|
||
|
||
<!DOCTYPE html>
|
||
<html lang="en"> <!-- lang="(TRANSLATE: set your language code here, same as the page name!) e.g: es, es-ES, pt-BR, ja, it, fr-CA, de, ..." -->
|
||
<head>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Meta Info -->
|
||
<title>The Wisdom and/or Madness of Crowds</title> <!-- <title>(TRANSLATE this part only)</title> -->
|
||
<meta name="description" content="an interactive guide to human networks"/> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
|
||
<meta content="text/html;charset=utf-8" http-equiv="Content-Type">
|
||
<meta content="utf-8" http-equiv="encoding">
|
||
<meta charset="utf-8">
|
||
<link rel="icon" type="image/png" href="favicon.png">
|
||
|
||
<link rel="alternate" href="http://ncase.me/crowds/" hreflang="en">
|
||
<link rel="alternate" href="http://ncase.me/crowds/cs.html" hreflang="cs">
|
||
<link rel="alternate" href="http://ncase.me/crowds/es.html" hreflang="es-ES">
|
||
<link rel="alternate" href="http://ncase.me/crowds/fr.html" hreflang="fr">
|
||
<link rel="alternate" href="http://ncase.me/crowds/it.html" hreflang="it">
|
||
<link rel="alternate" href="http://ncase.me/crowds/ja.html" hreflang="ja">
|
||
<link rel="alternate" href="http://ncase.me/crowds/pt.html" hreflang="pt">
|
||
<link rel="alternate" href="http://ncase.me/crowds/ru.html" hreflang="ru">
|
||
<link rel="alternate" href="http://ncase.me/crowds/uk.html" hreflang="uk">
|
||
<link rel="alternate" href="http://ncase.me/crowds/vi.html" hreflang="vi">
|
||
<link rel="alternate" href="http://ncase.me/crowds/zh-CN.html" hreflang="zh-CN">
|
||
<link rel="alternate" href="http://ncase.me/crowds/zh-TW.html" hreflang="zh-TW">
|
||
|
||
<!-- Sharing -->
|
||
<meta itemprop="name" content="The Wisdom and/or Madness of Crowds"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
|
||
<meta itemprop="description" content="an interactive guide to human networks"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
|
||
<meta itemprop="image" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/social/thumb.png">
|
||
|
||
<meta name="twitter:title" content="The Wisdom and/or Madness of Crowds"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
|
||
<meta name="twitter:description" content="an interactive guide to human networks"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
|
||
<meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image">
|
||
<meta name="twitter:site" content="@ncasenmare">
|
||
<meta name="twitter:creator" content="@ncasenmare">
|
||
<meta name="twitter:image" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/social/thumb.png">
|
||
|
||
<meta property="og:title" content="The Wisdom and/or Madness of Crowds"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
|
||
<meta property="og:description" content="an interactive guide to human networks"> <!-- content="(TRANSLATE this part only)" -->
|
||
<meta property="og:type" content="website">
|
||
<meta property="og:url" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/">
|
||
<meta property="og:image" content="http://ncase.me/crowds/social/thumb.png">
|
||
|
||
<!-- Styles -->
|
||
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="css/index.css?v=7">
|
||
|
||
</head>
|
||
<body>
|
||
|
||
<!-- THE SLIDESHOW -->
|
||
<div id="container">
|
||
|
||
<!-- Simulation(s) in background -->
|
||
<div id="simulations_container">
|
||
<div id="simulations"></div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Slideshow: words & buttons -->
|
||
<div id="slideshow_container">
|
||
<div id="slideshow"></div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Scratch Transition -->
|
||
<canvas id="scratch" width="711" height="400"></canvas>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Skip -->
|
||
<div id="skip">skip ></div> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
|
||
|
||
<!-- Modal -->
|
||
<div id="modal_container">
|
||
<div id="modal_bg"></div>
|
||
<div id="modal">
|
||
<div id="modal_close">⨯</div>
|
||
<div id="modal_content_container">
|
||
<div id="modal_content"></div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Navigation: Audio, Contents, Share, Translations -->
|
||
<div id="navigation_container">
|
||
<div id="sound" mute="no">
|
||
<div id="sound_icon"></div>
|
||
<span id="sound_on">ON</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
|
||
<span id="sound_off">OFF</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div id="sharing">
|
||
<a id="fb" target="_blank" href="TODO"></a>
|
||
<a id="tw" target="_blank" href="TODO"></a>
|
||
<a id="em" target="_blank" href="TODO"></a>
|
||
<span id="share_title">
|
||
The Wisdom and/or Madness of Crowds <!-- TRANSLATE -->
|
||
</span>
|
||
<span id="share_desc">
|
||
<!-- TRANSLATOR: keep this on ONE LINE or the social sharing will break! -->
|
||
Why do groups of people act smart, dumb, kind, cruel? An interactive guide to human networks: <!-- TRANSLATE -->
|
||
</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div id="navigation">
|
||
|
||
<!-- The chapters -->
|
||
<!-- TRANSLATE all the Chapter names! -->
|
||
<div chapter="Introduction">
|
||
<span>0</span>
|
||
<span>0. Introduction</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div chapter="Networks">
|
||
<span>1</span>
|
||
<span>1. Connections</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div chapter="Simple">
|
||
<span>2</span>
|
||
<span>2. Contagions</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div chapter="Complex">
|
||
<span>3</span>
|
||
<span>3. Complex Contagions</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div chapter="BB">
|
||
<span>4</span>
|
||
<span>4. Bonding & Bridging</span> <!-- note: & is html for the "and" sign -->
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div chapter="SmallWorld">
|
||
<span>5</span>
|
||
<span>5. It's A Small World</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div chapter="Conclusion">
|
||
<span>6</span>
|
||
<span>6. In Conclusion...</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div chapter="Credits">
|
||
<span>7</span>
|
||
<span>7. Credits</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div chapter="Sandbox">
|
||
<span>★</span>
|
||
<span>★ Sandbox Mode! ★</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- A divider -->
|
||
<span class="nav_divider"></span>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Bonus Notes & References -->
|
||
<div modal="bonus">
|
||
<span>?</span>
|
||
<span>Bonus Boxes!</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div modal="references">
|
||
<span style="margin-top: 7px; font-size: 35px;">*</span>
|
||
<span>Links & References</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div modal="translations">
|
||
<span style="margin-top:5px; position:relative;"><span style="
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
top: -8px;
|
||
left: 6px;
|
||
">A</span><span style="
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
font-size: 16px;
|
||
top: -1px;
|
||
left: 16px;
|
||
">あ</span></span>
|
||
<span>Translations</span> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- The hover bubble -->
|
||
<span id="nav_bubble"></span>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div id="translations"></div>
|
||
<div id="social"></div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- The Pencil -->
|
||
<div id="pencil_container">
|
||
<canvas id="pencil"></canvas>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Preloader -->
|
||
<div id="pre_preloader">
|
||
<div>loading...</div> <!-- TRANSLATE -->
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html>
|
||
|
||
<!-- - - - - -->
|
||
<!-- SCRIPTS -->
|
||
<!-- - - - - -->
|
||
|
||
<script src="js/lib/helpers.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/lib/inobounce.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/lib/minpubsub.src.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/lib/howler.min.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/lib/Key.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/lib/Mouse.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/lib/Sprite.js"></script>
|
||
|
||
<script src="js/slideshow/Slideshow.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/slideshow/Pencil.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/slideshow/Boxes.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/slideshow/Scratch.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/slideshow/Navigation.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/slideshow/SimUI.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/slideshow/SandboxUI.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/slideshow/Modal.js?v=5"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/slideshow/Preloader.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/slideshow/Translations.js?v=5"></script>
|
||
|
||
<script src="js/sim/Peep.js?v=2"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/sim/Connection.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/sim/ConnectorCutter.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/sim/Simulations.js"></script>
|
||
|
||
<script src="js/chapters/A_Preloader.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/chapters/B_Introduction.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/chapters/C_Networks.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/chapters/D_Simple_Contagion.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/chapters/E_Complex_Contagion.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/chapters/F_Bonding_And_Bridging.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/chapters/G_Small_World.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/chapters/H_Conclusion.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/chapters/I_Credits.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="js/chapters/J_Sandbox.js?v=2"></script>
|
||
|
||
<script src="js/main.js"></script>
|
||
|
||
|
||
<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - -->
|
||
<!-- THE SLIDESHOW'S WORDS -->
|
||
<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - -->
|
||
|
||
<!--
|
||
|
||
This is the bulk of what you need to TRANSLATE!
|
||
Translate just the text that's within the <tag></tags>
|
||
If you're using a code editor (like Sublime Text https://www.sublimetext.com/),
|
||
it should automatically highlight what the text is (usually in white).
|
||
|
||
-->
|
||
|
||
<span style="display:none">
|
||
|
||
<!-- Preloader -->
|
||
|
||
<words id="preloader_title">
|
||
|
||
<div style="font-size: 30px;">
|
||
<span>the</span>
|
||
<br>
|
||
<span style="font-size: 60px;letter-spacing: 4px;">WISDOM</span>
|
||
<span style="position:relative;top: -10px;">and/or</span>
|
||
<span style="font-size: 60px;">MADNESS</span>
|
||
<br>
|
||
<span style="position: relative;top: -11px;">of</span>
|
||
<br>
|
||
<span style="font-size: 100px;line-height: 80px;position: relative;top: -15px; display:block;">CROWDS</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div style="color:#999">
|
||
<!-- TRANSLATE note: comment out the line below... -->
|
||
playing time: 30 min • by nicky case, april 2018
|
||
<!-- ...and UN-comment + TRANSLATE this line! -->
|
||
<!-- by nicky case • translated by [your name] • <a href='.'>original in English</a> -->
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="preloader_button">
|
||
<next></next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="preloader_loading">
|
||
loading...
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="preloader_play">
|
||
let's play! <div class="rarr"></div>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Introduction -->
|
||
<!--
|
||
|
||
TRANSLATE note: to make the text stay in a circle, I added lots of <br> breaks.
|
||
You may have to re-arrange the <br>'s in order to do your translation.
|
||
It shouldn't look too bad if they're slightly off, though!
|
||
|
||
Also, <b></b> bolds a word/phrase, and <i></i> italicizes a word/phrase.
|
||
|
||
-->
|
||
|
||
<words id="intro">
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
Sir Isaac Newton was pretty sure he was a
|
||
<br>
|
||
smart cookie. I mean, after inventing calculus and
|
||
<br>
|
||
a theory of gravity, he should be clever enough to do
|
||
<br>
|
||
some financial investing, right? Anyway, long story short, he
|
||
<br>
|
||
lost $4,600,000 (in today's dollars) in the nationwide
|
||
<br>
|
||
speculation frenzy known as the South Sea Bubble of 1720.
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
As Mr. Newton later said: <i>“I can calculate the motion of
|
||
<br>
|
||
heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.”</i>
|
||
|
||
<next>yeah sucks for him <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="intro_2">
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.5em"></div>
|
||
|
||
Of course, that's not the only
|
||
<br>
|
||
time markets, institutions, or entire
|
||
<br>
|
||
democracies went haywire — the <i>madness</i> of
|
||
<br>
|
||
crowds. And yet, just when you lose hope in humanity,
|
||
<br>
|
||
you see citizens coordinating to rescue each other in
|
||
<br>
|
||
hurricanes, communities creating solutions to problems,
|
||
<br>
|
||
people fighting for a better world — the <i>wisdom</i> of crowds!
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
||
|
||
<b>But <i>why</i> do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom?</b> No theory
|
||
<br>
|
||
can explain everything, but I think a new field of study,
|
||
<br>
|
||
<b>network science</b>, can guide us! And its core idea is this: to
|
||
<br>
|
||
understand crowds, we should look not at the <i>individual
|
||
<br>
|
||
people</i>, but at...
|
||
|
||
<next>...their <i>connections.</i> <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Networks -->
|
||
|
||
<words id="networks_tutorial_start">
|
||
<b>Let's draw a network!</b>
|
||
Each connection represents a friendship between two people:
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="networks_tutorial_connect">
|
||
draw to connect
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="networks_tutorial_disconnect">
|
||
scratch to disconnect
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="networks_tutorial_end">
|
||
|
||
when you're done doodling and playing around,
|
||
<next wiggle>let's continue <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="networks_threshold">
|
||
|
||
Now, social connections are for more than just making pretty pictures.
|
||
People <i>look to</i> their social connections to understand their world.
|
||
For example, people look to their peers to
|
||
find out <b>what % of their friends (not counting themselves)</b> are,
|
||
say, binge-drinkers. <icon name="yellow"></icon>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="networks_threshold_instruction">
|
||
<b>Draw/erase connections, and see what happens! <div class="rarr"></div> </b>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="networks_threshold_end">
|
||
<next>cool, got it</next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="networks_pre_puzzle">
|
||
However, networks can <i>fool</i> people.
|
||
Just like how the earth seems flat because we're on it,
|
||
people may get wrong ideas about society because they're <i>in</i> it.
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="optional_reading">
|
||
<div style="position:absolute; top:5px;">
|
||
<i>optional</i> extra bonus notes! ↑
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div style="position:absolute; left:216px; top:10px;">
|
||
↓ links and references
|
||
</div>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="networks_pre_puzzle_2">
|
||
|
||
<bon id="books"></bon>
|
||
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
For example, a 1991 study<ref id="drunk"></ref> showed that
|
||
“virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did.”
|
||
But that seems impossible!
|
||
How can that be?
|
||
Well, you're about to invent the answer yourself, by drawing a network.
|
||
It's time to...
|
||
|
||
<next>FOOL EVERYONE <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="networks_puzzle">
|
||
|
||
<b style="font-size:2em">PUZZLE TIME!</b>
|
||
<br>
|
||
Fool <i>everyone</i> into thinking
|
||
the majority of their friends (50% threshold) are binge-drinkers <icon name="yellow"></icon>
|
||
(even though binge-drinkers are outnumbered 2-to-1!)
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="networks_puzzle_metric">
|
||
<b>FOOLED:</b>
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="networks_puzzle_metric_2">
|
||
out of 9 people
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="networks_puzzle_end">
|
||
Congrats! You manipulated a group of students into believing
|
||
in the prevalance of an incredibly unhealthy social norm! Good going!
|
||
<next wiggle>...uh. thanks?</next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="networks_post_puzzle">
|
||
|
||
What you just created is called The Majority Illusion<ref id="majority"></ref>,
|
||
which also explains why people think their political views are consensus,
|
||
or why extremism seems more common than it actually is.
|
||
<i>Madness.</i>
|
||
|
||
<bon id="connections"></bon>
|
||
|
||
But people don't just passively <i>observe</i> others' ideas and behaviors,
|
||
they actively <i>copy</i> them.
|
||
So now, let's look at something network scientists call...
|
||
|
||
<next>“Contagions!” <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Simple Contagions -->
|
||
|
||
<words id="simple_simple">
|
||
<i>Let's put aside the "threshold" thing for now.</i>
|
||
Below: we have a person <icon name="red"></icon> with some information.
|
||
Some <i>mis</i>information. "Fake news", as the cool kids say.
|
||
And every day, that person spreads the rumor, like a virus, to their friends.
|
||
And they spread it to <i>their</i> friends. And so on.
|
||
<br>
|
||
<b>
|
||
Start the simulation! <div class="darr"></div>
|
||
(p.s: you can't draw <i>while</i> the sim's running)
|
||
</b>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="simple_simple_2">
|
||
Note: despite the negative name, "contagions" can be good or bad (or neutral or ambiguous).
|
||
There's strong statistical evidence<ref id="contagion"></ref> that
|
||
smoking, health, happiness, voting patterns, and cooperation levels
|
||
are all "contagious" --
|
||
and even some evidence that suicides<ref id="suicides"></ref> and mass shootings<ref id="shootings"></ref> are, too.
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="simple_simple_end">
|
||
<next wiggle>well that's depressing <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="simple_cascade">
|
||
Indeed it is.
|
||
Anyway, <b>PUZZLE TIME!</b>
|
||
<br>
|
||
Draw a network & run the simulation,
|
||
so that <i>everyone</i> gets infected with the "contagion".
|
||
<br>
|
||
(new rule: you can't cut the <i>thick</i> connections)
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="simple_cascade_end">
|
||
<next wiggle>fan-flipping-tastic <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="simple_post_cascade">
|
||
This madness-spreading is called an <b>"information cascade"</b>.
|
||
Mr. Newton fell for such a cascade in 1720.
|
||
The world's financial institutions fell for such a cascade in 2008.<ref id="subprime"></ref>
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
However: <i>this simulation is wrong.</i>
|
||
Most ideas <i>don't</i> spread like viruses.
|
||
For many beliefs and behaviors, you need to be "exposed" to the contagion more than just once
|
||
in order to be "infected".
|
||
So, network scientists have come up with a new, better way to
|
||
describe how ideas/behaviors spread, and they call it...
|
||
<next wiggle>“<i>Complex</i> Contagions!” <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Complex Contagions -->
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_complex">
|
||
|
||
Let's bring back "thresholds" and the binge-drinking <icon name="yellow"></icon> example!
|
||
When you played with this the first time, people didn't change their behavior.
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
Now, let's simulate what happens if people start drinking
|
||
<i>when 50%+ of their friends do!</i>
|
||
<b>Before you start the sim, ask yourself what you think <i>should</i> happen.</b>
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
<b>Now, run the sim, and see what actually happens! <div class="rarr"></div> </b>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_complex_2">
|
||
<span style="line-height:1.3em; display:block;">
|
||
|
||
Unlike our earlier "fake news" <icon name="red"></icon> contagion,
|
||
this contagion <icon name="yellow"></icon> does <i>not</i> spread to everyone!
|
||
The first few people get "infected", because although they're only exposed to one
|
||
binge-drinker, that binge-drinker is 50% of their friends. (yeah, they're lonely)
|
||
In contrast, the person near the end of the chain did <i>not</i> get "infected",
|
||
because while they were exposed to a binge-drinking friend,
|
||
they did not pass the 50%+ threshold.
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
|
||
|
||
The <i>relative</i> % of "infected" friends matters.
|
||
<i>That's</i> the difference between the <b>complex contagion</b> theory<ref id="complex"></ref>,
|
||
and our naive it-spreads-like-a-virus <b>simple contagion</b> theory.
|
||
(you could say "simple contagions" are just contagions with a "more than 0%" infection threshold)
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
|
||
|
||
However, contagions aren't necessarily bad —
|
||
so enough about crowd <i>madness</i>, what about...
|
||
<next>...crowd <i>wisdom?</i></next>
|
||
|
||
</span>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_complex_3">
|
||
|
||
Here, we have a person <icon name="blue"></icon> who volunteers to... I don't know,
|
||
rescue people in hurricanes, or tutor underprivileged kids in their local community, or something cool like that.
|
||
Point is, it's a "good" complex contagion.
|
||
This time, though, let's say the threshold is only 25% —
|
||
people are willing to volunteer, but only if 25% or more of their friends do so, too.
|
||
Hey, goodwill needs a bit of social encouragement.
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
<b>← Get everyone "infected" with the good vibes!</b>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_complex_3_end">
|
||
<span style="line-height:1.3em; display:block;">
|
||
|
||
<b>NOTE:</b> Volunteering is just <i>one</i> of many complex contagions!
|
||
Others include: voter turnout, lifestyle habits,
|
||
challenging your beliefs,
|
||
taking time to understand an issue deeply — anything
|
||
that needs more than one "exposure".
|
||
Complex contagions aren't <i>necessarily</i> wise,
|
||
but being wise is a complex contagion.
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.75em"></div>
|
||
|
||
(So what's a real-life <i>simple</i> contagion?
|
||
Usually bits of trivia, like, "the possum has 13 nipples"<ref id="possum"></ref>)
|
||
|
||
<bon id="contagions"></bon>
|
||
|
||
Now, to <i>really</i> show the power and weirdness of complex contagions, let's revisit...
|
||
|
||
<next>...an earlier puzzle <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
|
||
</span>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_cascade">
|
||
Remember this? This time, with a <i>complex</i> contagion <icon name="blue"></icon>, it'll be a bit tougher...
|
||
<br>
|
||
<b>Try to "infect" everyone with complex wisdom! <div class="darr"></div></b>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_cascade_feel_free">
|
||
(feel free to just hit 'start' and <i>try</i> as many solutions as you want)
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_cascade_end">
|
||
<next wiggle>HOT DANG <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_post_cascade">
|
||
Now, you may think that you just need to keep adding connections to spread any contagion,
|
||
"complex" or "simple", good or bad, wise or mad.
|
||
But is that really so? Well, let's revisit...
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="complex_post_cascade_end">
|
||
<next wiggle>...another earlier puzzle <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_prevent">
|
||
If you hit "start" below, the complex contagion <icon name="blue"></icon> will just spread to everyone.
|
||
No surprise there.
|
||
But now, let's do the <i>opposite</i> of everything we've done before:
|
||
<b>draw a network to <i>prevent</i> the contagion from spreading to everyone! <div class="darr"></div></b>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_prevent_2">
|
||
You see?
|
||
While more connections will always help the spread of <i>simple</i> ideas,
|
||
<b>more connections can hurt the spread of <i>complex</i> ideas!</b>
|
||
(makes you wonder about the internet, hm?)
|
||
And this isn't just a theoretical problem. This can be a matter of life...
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_prevent_end">
|
||
<next wiggle>...or death. <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="complex_groupthink">
|
||
|
||
The people at NASA were smart cookies.
|
||
I mean, they'd used Newton's theories to get us to the moon.
|
||
Anyway, long story short, in 1986,
|
||
<i>despite warnings from the engineers</i>,
|
||
they launched the <i>Challenger</i>,
|
||
which blew up and killed 7 people.
|
||
The immediate cause:
|
||
it was too cold that morning.
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
||
|
||
The less immediate cause: the managers ignored the engineers' warnings.
|
||
Why? Because of <b>groupthink</b><ref id="groupthink"></ref>.
|
||
When a group is <i>too</i> closely knit, (as they tend to be at the top of institutions)
|
||
they become resistant to complex ideas that challenge their beliefs or ego.
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
||
|
||
So, that's how institutions can fall to crowd madness.
|
||
But how can we "design" for crowd <i>wisdom?</i>
|
||
In short, two words:
|
||
|
||
<next>Bonding & Bridging <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Bonding & Bridging -->
|
||
|
||
<words id="bonding_1">
|
||
← Too few connections, and an idea can't spread.
|
||
<br>
|
||
Too many connections, and you get groupthink. <div class="rarr"></div>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="bonding_2">
|
||
<b>
|
||
Draw a group that hits the sweet spot:
|
||
just connected enough to spread a complex idea!
|
||
<div class="darr"></div>
|
||
</b>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="bonding_end">
|
||
Simple enough!
|
||
The number of connections <i>within</i> a group is called <b>bonding social capital</b><ref id="social_capital"></ref>.
|
||
But what about the connections...
|
||
<next wiggle>...<i>between</i> groups?</next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="bridging_1">
|
||
As you may have already guessed,
|
||
the number of connections <i>between</i> groups is called
|
||
<b>bridging social capital</b>.
|
||
This is important, because it helps groups break out of their insular echo chambers!
|
||
<br>
|
||
<b>Build a bridge, to "infect" everyone with complex wisdom:</b>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="bridging_end">
|
||
Like bonding, there's a sweet spot for bridging, too.<ref id="bridge"></ref>
|
||
(extra challenge: try drawing a bridge so thick that the complex contagion
|
||
<i>can't</i> pass through it!)
|
||
Now that we know how to "design" connections <i>within</i> and <i>between</i> groups, let's...
|
||
<next wiggle>...do BOTH at the same time!</next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="bb_1">
|
||
|
||
<b style="font-size:2em">FINAL PUZZLE!</b>
|
||
<br>
|
||
Draw connections within groups (bonding) and between groups (bridging)
|
||
to spread wisdom to the whole crowd:
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="bb_2">
|
||
|
||
Congrats, you've just drawn a very special kind of network!
|
||
Networks with the right mix of bonding and bridging
|
||
are profoundly important, and they're called...
|
||
<next wiggle>“Small World Networks” <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="bb_small_world_1">
|
||
|
||
<i>"Unity without uniformity". "Diversity without division". "E Pluribus Unum: out of many, one".</i>
|
||
<br>
|
||
No matter how it's phrased,
|
||
people across times and cultures often arrive at the same piece of wisdom:
|
||
<b>
|
||
a healthy society needs a sweet spot of bonds <i>within</i> groups
|
||
and bridges <i>between</i> groups.
|
||
</b>
|
||
That is:
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="bb_small_world_2">
|
||
Not this...
|
||
<br>
|
||
(because ideas can't spread)
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="bb_small_world_3">
|
||
nor this...
|
||
<br>
|
||
(because you'll get groupthink)
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="bb_small_world_4">
|
||
...but <i>THIS:</i>
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="bb_small_world_5">
|
||
|
||
Network scientists now have a mathematical definition for this ancient wisdom:
|
||
the <b>small world network</b><ref id="small_world"></ref>.
|
||
This optimal mix of bonding+bridging describes how
|
||
our neurons are connected<ref id="swn_neurons"></ref>,
|
||
fosters collective creativity<ref id="swn_creativity"></ref>
|
||
and problem-solving<ref id="swn_social_physics"></ref>,
|
||
and even once helped US President John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war!<ref id="swn_jfk"></ref>
|
||
So, yeah, small worlds are a big deal.
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="bb_small_world_end">
|
||
<next>ok, let's wrap this up... <div class="rarr"></div> </next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Sandbox -->
|
||
|
||
<words id="sandbox_caption">
|
||
(pst... wanna know a secret?<ref id="sandbox"></ref>)
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="sandbox_contagion">
|
||
Contagion:
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_contagion_simple">
|
||
simple
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_contagion_complex">
|
||
complex
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_color_chooser">
|
||
The Contagion's Color:
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_tool_chooser">
|
||
Select a tool...
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="sandbox_tool_pencil">
|
||
Draw Network
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_tool_add">
|
||
Add Person
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_tool_add_infected">
|
||
Add "Infected"
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_tool_move">
|
||
Drag Person
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_tool_delete">
|
||
Delete Person
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sandbox_tool_clear">
|
||
<b>CLEAR IT ALL</b>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="sandbox_shortcuts_label">
|
||
(...or, use keyboard shortcuts!)
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="sandbox_shortcuts">
|
||
[1]: Add Person [2]: Add "Infected"
|
||
<br>
|
||
[Space]: Drag [Backspace]: Delete
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Conclusion -->
|
||
|
||
<words id="conclusion_1">
|
||
|
||
<div style="font-size: 30px;">
|
||
IN CONCLUSION: it's all about...
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div style="
|
||
width: 100%;
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
font-size: 88px;
|
||
top: 20px;
|
||
line-height: 100px; display:block;
|
||
">
|
||
Contagions & Connections
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div style="
|
||
width: 710px;
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
top: 125px;
|
||
left: 250px;
|
||
">
|
||
<b>Contagions:</b>
|
||
Like how neurons pass signals in a brain,
|
||
people pass beliefs & behaviors in a society.
|
||
Not only do we influence our friends,
|
||
we also influence our friends' friends, and even our friends' friends' friends!<ref id="three_degrees"></ref>
|
||
(“be the change you wanna see in the world” etc etc)
|
||
But, like neurons, it's not just signals that matter, it's also...
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div style="
|
||
width: 710px;
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
top: 275px;
|
||
left: 250px;
|
||
">
|
||
<b>Connections:</b>
|
||
Too few connections and complex ideas can't spread.
|
||
Too <i>many</i> connections and complex ideas get crushed by groupthink.
|
||
The trick is to build a small world network, the optimal mix of
|
||
bonding and bridging: <i>e pluribus unum.</i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div style="
|
||
width: 350px;
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
top: 410px;
|
||
left: 220px;
|
||
text-align: center;
|
||
color: #999;
|
||
">
|
||
(wanna make your own simulations?
|
||
check out Sandbox Mode, by clicking the (★) button below!)
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div style="
|
||
width: 400px;
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
top: 395px;
|
||
right: 0px;
|
||
text-align: right;
|
||
">
|
||
So, what about our question from the very beginning?
|
||
Why <i>do</i> some crowds turn to...
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div style="
|
||
width: 300px;
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
top: 460px;
|
||
right: 0px;
|
||
">
|
||
<next>...wisdom and/or madness?</next>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="conclusion_2">
|
||
<span style="line-height:1.4em; display:block;">
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.5em"></div>
|
||
|
||
From Newton to NASA to
|
||
<br>
|
||
network science, we've covered a lot here
|
||
<br>
|
||
today. Long story short, the madness of crowds
|
||
<br>
|
||
is not necessarily due to the <i>individual people</i>, but due
|
||
<br>
|
||
to how we're trapped in a network's sticky web.
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
||
|
||
That <i>does NOT</i> mean abandoning personal responsibility, for
|
||
<br>
|
||
we're also the <i>weavers</i> of that web. So, improve your contagions:
|
||
<br>
|
||
be skeptical of ideas that flatter you<ref id="flatter"></ref>, spend time understanding
|
||
<br>
|
||
complex ideas. And, improve your connections: bond with similar
|
||
<br>
|
||
folk, but also build bridges across cultural/political divides.
|
||
|
||
<div style="height:0.9em"></div>
|
||
|
||
We can weave a wise web. Sure, it's harder than doodling
|
||
<br>
|
||
lines on a screen...
|
||
|
||
<next>...but so, so worth it.</next>
|
||
|
||
</span>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<words id="conclusion_3">
|
||
<i>
|
||
“The great triumphs and tragedies of history are caused,
|
||
not by people being fundamentally good or fundamentally bad,
|
||
but by people being fundamentally people.”
|
||
</i>
|
||
<br>
|
||
<span style="position:relative; top:5px">~</span> Neil Gaiman & Terry Pratchett
|
||
<div style="height:0.8em"></div>
|
||
<next small><3</next>
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Credits -->
|
||
|
||
<words id="credits">
|
||
|
||
<div style="text-align:center; color:#fff; letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 24px; line-height: 27px;">
|
||
|
||
<span style="color:#777; position:relative; top:5px;">
|
||
created by</span>
|
||
<div style="font-size: 3em; line-height: 1.0em;">
|
||
NICKY CASE</div>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://ncase.me" style="text-decoration:none">
|
||
play my other shtuff</a> ·
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/ncasenmare" style="text-decoration:none">
|
||
follow my tweeter</a>
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
<span style="color:#777; position:relative; top:5px; display: inline-block; margin-top: 15px;">
|
||
lots of love and thanks to</span>
|
||
<div style="font-size: 3em; line-height: 1.0em;">
|
||
MY PATREON SUPPORTERS</div>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.patreon.com/ncase" style="text-decoration:none">
|
||
help me make more like this! <3</a>
|
||
<br>
|
||
<a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["supporters"]);'>
|
||
see my supporters</a> ·
|
||
<a onclick='publish("reference/show", ["playtesters"]);'>
|
||
see my playtesters</a>
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
<span style="display: inline-block; margin-top: 15px;">
|
||
♫ music is
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Komiku/Tale_on_the_Late/" style="text-decoration:none">
|
||
"Friends 2018" and "Friends 2068"</a>
|
||
by Komiku
|
||
<br>
|
||
</> <i>Crowds</i> is
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://github.com/ncase/crowds" style="text-decoration:none">
|
||
fully open source</a>
|
||
</span>
|
||
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<bon id="further_reading"></bon>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- x. misc -->
|
||
<words id="WIN">
|
||
WIN
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sim_start">
|
||
start simulation
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="sim_stop">
|
||
reset & re-draw
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="translations_exist">
|
||
Fan-made translations:
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="translations_do_not_exist">
|
||
<!-- There's no need to TRANSLATE this line since, well, -->
|
||
<!-- it'll only show up if no translations exist -->
|
||
What the, no fan-made translations exist yet?!
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="translations_add">
|
||
(add your own!)
|
||
</words>
|
||
<words id="translations_original">
|
||
<!-- No need to translate this, because, I assume, -->
|
||
<!-- if someone wants to play the game in English, they can read English -->
|
||
(original in English)
|
||
</words>
|
||
|
||
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
||
<!-- BONUS BOXES -->
|
||
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
||
|
||
<!--
|
||
Sorry, not done yet! These Bonus Boxes need you to TRANSLATE, too:
|
||
(And then afterwards, the final thing, translate the References)
|
||
-->
|
||
|
||
<bonus id="books">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
A quick response to James Surowiecki's <i>The Wisdom of Crowds</i>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/surowieki.jpg" width="200" height="300" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
|
||
First off, I'm not dissing
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds">
|
||
this book.</a>
|
||
It's a good book, and Surowiecki was trying to tackle the same question I am:
|
||
<b>“why do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom?”</b>
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
Surowiecki's answer: crowds make good decisions when everybody is as independent as possible.
|
||
He gives the story of a county fair,
|
||
where the townsfolk were invited to guess the weight of an ox.
|
||
Surprisingly, the average of <i>all</i> their guesses was better than any <i>one</i> guess</i>.
|
||
But, here's the rub: the people have to guess <i>independently</i> of each other.
|
||
Otherwise,
|
||
they'd be influenced by earlier incorrect guesses,
|
||
and the average answer would be highly skewed.
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
But... I don't think "make everyone as independent as possible" is the full answer.
|
||
Even geniuses, who we mischaracterize as the most independent thinkers,
|
||
are deeply influenced by others. As Sir Isaac Newton said,
|
||
<i>“If I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.”</i>
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
So, which idea is correct?
|
||
Does wisdom come from thinking for yourself, or thinking with others?
|
||
The answer is: "yes".
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
So that's what I'll try to explain in this explorable explanation:
|
||
how to get that sweet spot between independence and interdependence —
|
||
that is, how to get a wise crowd.
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</bonus>
|
||
<bonus id="connections">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
What other kinds of connections are there?
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
For the sake of simplicity,
|
||
my simulations pretend that people can only be connected through friendships,
|
||
and that all friendships are equal.
|
||
But network scientists <i>do</i> consider other ways we can be connected, such as:
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/connection1.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>Directional connections.</b> Alice is the boss of Bob, but Bob is not the boss of Alice.
|
||
Carol is the parent of Dave, but Dave is not the parent of Carol.
|
||
"Boss" & "parent" are <i>directional</i> relationships:
|
||
the relationship only goes one way.
|
||
In contrast, "friends" is a <i>bidirectional</i> relationship:
|
||
the relationship goes both ways. (well, hopefully)
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/connection2.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>Weighted connections.</b> Elinor and Frankie are mere acquaintances.
|
||
George and Harry are Best Friends Forever.
|
||
Even though there's a "friendship" connection in both cases, the second one is stronger.
|
||
We say that these two connections have different "weights".
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/map.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
Just remember: <b>all these simulations are wrong.</b> The same way any map is "wrong".
|
||
You see the map on the left? Buildings aren't gray featureless blocks!
|
||
Words don't float above the city! However, maps are useful not <i>despite</i> being simplified,
|
||
but <i>because</i> they're simplified. Same goes for simulations, or any scientific theory.
|
||
Of <i>course</i> they're "wrong" — that's what makes them <i>useful</i>.
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</bonus>
|
||
<bonus id="contagions">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
What other kinds of contagions are there?
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
There are so, so many ways that network scientists can simulate "contagions"!
|
||
I picked the simplest one, for educational purposes.
|
||
But here's other ways you could do it:
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion1.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>Contagions with Randomness</b>.
|
||
Being "exposed" to a contagion doesn't <i>guarantee</i> you'll be infected,
|
||
it only makes it more <i>likely</i>.
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion2.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>People have different contagion thresholds.</b>
|
||
My simulations pretend that everyone has the same threshold for binge-drinking (50%) or
|
||
volunteering (25%) or misinformation (0%).
|
||
Of course, that's not true in real life, and you could make your sim reflect that.
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion3.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>An ecology of contagions.</b>
|
||
What if there were <i>multiple</i> contagions, with <i>different</i> thresholds?
|
||
For example, a simple "madness" contagion and a complex "wisdom" contagion.
|
||
If someone's infected with madness, can they still be infected with wisdom?
|
||
Or vice versa?
|
||
Can someone be infected with both?
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/contagion4.png" width="250" height="150" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>Contagions that mutate and evolve.</b>
|
||
Ideas don't pass perfectly from one person to another the way a virus does.
|
||
Like a game of Telephone, the message gets mutated with each re-telling —
|
||
and sometimes the mutant will be more infectious than the original!
|
||
So, over time, ideas "evolve" to be more catchy, copy-able, contagious.
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</bonus>
|
||
<bonus id="further_reading">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
I wanna learn more! What else can I read and/or play?
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
This explorable explanation was just a springboard for your curiosity,
|
||
so you can dive deeper into a vast pool of knowledge!
|
||
Here's more stuff on networks or social systems:
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/connected.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>Book:</b>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
|
||
Connected</a>
|
||
by Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler (2009).
|
||
An accessible tour of how our networks affect our lives, for good or ill.
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/pdf/excerpt.pdf">
|
||
Here's an excerpt: Preface & Chapter 1
|
||
</a>
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/trust.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>Interactive:</b>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://ncase.me/trust/">
|
||
The Evolution of Trust</a> by Nicky Case (me) (2017).
|
||
A game about the game theory of how cooperation is built... or destroyed.
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/polygons.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
<b>Interactive:</b>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://ncase.me/polygons/">
|
||
Parable of the Polygons</a> by Vi Hart and Nicky Case (also me) (2014).
|
||
A story about how harmless choices can create a harmful world.
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
<br>
|
||
|
||
<img src="sprites/bonus/ee.png" width="200" height="200" style="float:left; margin-right:1em"/>
|
||
Or, if you just want to see a whole gallery of interactive edu-things, here's
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://explorabl.es/">
|
||
Explorable Explanations</a>,
|
||
a hub for learning through play!
|
||
|
||
<div style="clear:both"></div>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</bonus>
|
||
|
||
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
||
<!-- REFERENCES -->
|
||
<!-- - - - - - - -->
|
||
|
||
<!--
|
||
Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE:
|
||
-->
|
||
|
||
<reference id="drunk">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did.”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1758185">
|
||
“Biases in the perception of drinking norms among college students”</a> by Baer et al (1991)
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="majority">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“The Majority Illusion”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147617">
|
||
“The Majority Illusion in Social Networks”</a> by Lerman et al (2016).
|
||
<br>
|
||
Related: <a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendship_paradox">
|
||
The Friendship Paradox</a>.
|
||
</div>
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="contagion">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“strong statistical evidence that
|
||
smoking, health, happiness, voting patterns, and cooperation levels
|
||
are all contagious”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
From Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's
|
||
wonderfully-written, layperson-accessible book,
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
|
||
Connected</a> (2009).
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="suicides">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“some evidence that suicides are [contagious], too”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/42000514?seq=4#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
||
“Suicide Contagion and the Reporting of Suicide: Recommendations from a National Workshop”</a>
|
||
by O'Carroll et al (1994), endorsed by the frickin' Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC).
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="shootings">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“some evidence that mass shootings are [contagious], too”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0117259">
|
||
“Contagion in Mass Killings and School Shootings”</a> by Towers et al (2015).
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
Also see: the
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.dontnamethem.org/">
|
||
Don't Name Them</a> campaign,
|
||
which urges that news outlets <i>DO NOT</i> air mass murderers' names, manifestos, and social media feeds.
|
||
This spreads the contagion.
|
||
Instead, news outlets should focus on the victims, first responders, civilian heroes,
|
||
and the grieving, healing community.
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="subprime">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“The world's financial institutions fell for such a cascade in 2008.”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://newrepublic.com/article/63023/wall-streets-lemmings">
|
||
“Lemmings of Wall Street”</a> by Cass Sunstein, is a quick, non-technical read.
|
||
Published in Oct 2008, right in the wake of the crash.
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="complex">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“the complex contagion theory.”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.unc.edu/~fbaum/teaching/articles/Granovetter_AJS_1978.pdf">
|
||
“Threshold Models of Collective Behavior”</a> by Granovetter (1978)
|
||
was the first time, as far as I know, anyone described a "complex contagion" model.
|
||
(although he didn't use that specific name)
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/521848?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
||
“Complex Contagions and the Weakness of Long Ties”</a> by Centola & Macy (2007)
|
||
coined the phrase "complex contagion", and
|
||
showed the important differences between that and "simple contagion".
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0180802">
|
||
“Evidence for complex contagion models of social contagion from observational data”</a>
|
||
by Sprague & House (2017)
|
||
empirically showed that complex contagions do, in fact, exist. (at least, in the social media data they looked at)
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
Finally,
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0403699.pdf">
|
||
“Universal behavior in a generalized model of contagion”</a> by Dodds & Watts (2004)
|
||
proposes a model that unifies <i>all</i> kinds of contagions:
|
||
simple and complex, biological and social!
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="possum">
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“the possum has 13 nipples”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<div>
|
||
arranged in a ring of 12 nipples, plus one in the middle
|
||
</div>
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="groupthink">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“groupthink”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
This Orwell-inspired phrase was coined by Irving L. Janis in 1971.
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100401033524/http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/macdonald/GroupThink.pdf">
|
||
In his original article</a>,
|
||
Janis investigates cases of groupthink, lists its causes, and — thankfully —
|
||
some possible remedies.
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="social_capital">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“bonding and bridging social capital”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
These two types of social capital — "bonding" and "bridging" —
|
||
were named by Robert Putnam in his insightful 2000 book,
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://bowlingalone.com/">
|
||
Bowling Alone</a>. His discovery:
|
||
across almost <i>all</i> empircal measures of social connectiveness,
|
||
Americans are more alone than ever.
|
||
Golly.
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="bridge">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“bridging social capital has a sweet spot”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://sociology.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/the_strength_of_weak_ties_and_exch_w-gans.pdf">
|
||
“The Strength of Weak Ties”</a> by Granovetter (1973)
|
||
showed that connections across groups helps spread simple contagions (like information),
|
||
but
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/521848?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
||
“Complex Contagions and the Weakness of Long Ties”</a> by Centola & Macy (2007)
|
||
showed that connections across groups may not help complex contagions,
|
||
and it fact, can hurt their spread!
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="small_world">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“the small world network”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
The idea of the "small world" was popularized by
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/2786545">Travers & Milgram's 1969 experiment</a>,
|
||
which showed that, on average, any two random people in the United States
|
||
were just six friendships apart — "six degrees of separation"!
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
The small-world network got more mathematical meat on its bones with
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://leonidzhukov.net/hse/2014/socialnetworks/papers/watts-collective_dynamics-nature_1998.pdf">
|
||
“Collective dynamics of small-world networks”</a> by Watts & Strogatz (1998),
|
||
which proposed an algorithm for creating networks
|
||
with both low average path length (low degree of separation)
|
||
and high clustering (friends have lots of mutual friends) —
|
||
that is, a network that hits the sweet spot!
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
You can also play with
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://worrydream.com/ScientificCommunicationAsSequentialArt/">
|
||
the visual, interactive adaptation of that paper</a> by Bret Victor (2011).
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="swn_neurons">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“[small world networks] describe how our neurons are connected”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17079517">
|
||
“Small-world brain networks”</a> by Bassett & Bullmore (2006).
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="swn_creativity">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“[small world networks] give rise to collective creativity”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/432782?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">
|
||
“Collaboration and Creativity: The Small World Problem”</a> by Uzzi & Spiro (2005).
|
||
This paper analyzed the social network of the Broadway scene over time,
|
||
and discovered that, yup, the network's most creative when it's a "small world" network!
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="swn_social_physics">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“[small world networks] give rise to collective problem-solving”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
See
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://socialphysics.media.mit.edu/">
|
||
“Social Physics”</a> by MIT Professor Alex "Sandy" Pentland (2014)
|
||
for a data-based approach to collective intelligence.
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="swn_jfk">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“[small world networks] helped John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war!”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
Besides the NASA Challenger explosion, the most notorious example of groupthink
|
||
was the Bay of Pigs fiasco.
|
||
In 1961, US President John F. Kennedy and his team of advisors thought
|
||
— for some reason —
|
||
it would be a good idea to secretly invade Cuba and overthrow Fidel Castro.
|
||
They failed.
|
||
Actually, worse than failed: it led to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962,
|
||
<i>the closest the world had ever been to full-scale nuclear war.</i>
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
Yup, JFK really screwed up on that one.
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
But, having learnt some hard lessons from the Bay of Pigs fiasco,
|
||
JFK re-organized his team to avoid groupthink.
|
||
Among many things, he:
|
||
1) actively encouraged people to voice criticism,
|
||
thus lowering the "contagion threshold" for alternate ideas.
|
||
And
|
||
2) he broke his team up into sub-groups before reconvening,
|
||
which gave their group a "small world network"-like design!
|
||
Together, this arrangement allowed for a healthy diversity of opinion,
|
||
but without being too fractured — a wisdom of crowds.
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
And so, with the same <i>individuals</i> who decided the Bay of Pigs,
|
||
but re-arranged <i>collectively</i> to decide on the Cuban Missile Crisis...
|
||
JFK's team was able to reach a peaceful agreement with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev.
|
||
The Soviets would remove their missiles from Cuba, and in return,
|
||
the US would promise not to invade Cuba again.
|
||
(and also agreed, in secret, to remove the US missiles from Turkey)
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
And that's the story of how all of humanity almost died.
|
||
But a small world network saved the day! Sort of.
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
|
||
You can read more about this
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://hbr.org/2013/11/how-john-f-kennedy-changed-decision-making">
|
||
on Harvard Business Review</a>,
|
||
or from
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100401033524/http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/macdonald/GroupThink.pdf">
|
||
the original article on groupthink</a>.
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="three_degrees">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“we influence [...] our friends' friends' friends!”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
Again, from Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's
|
||
wonderful book,
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.connectedthebook.com/">
|
||
Connected</a> (2009).
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="flatter">
|
||
<h3>
|
||
“be skeptical of ideas that flatter you”
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<div>
|
||
yes, including the ideas in <i>this</i> explorable explanation.
|
||
</div>
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="sandbox">
|
||
|
||
<h3>
|
||
★ Sandbox Mode ★
|
||
</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
The keyboard shortcuts (1, 2, space, backspace)
|
||
work in <i>all</i> the puzzles, not just Sandbox Mode!
|
||
Seriously, you can go back to a different chapter,
|
||
and edit the simulation right there.
|
||
In fact, that's how <i>I</i> created all these puzzles. Have fun!
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="supporters" hidden=yes large=yes>
|
||
<div>
|
||
Dear Patreon supporters:
|
||
Your generosity <i>literally</i> feeds me and pays my rent.
|
||
You give me the freedom to make these weird educational games,
|
||
so, from the bottom of my heart, thank you. <3
|
||
<br>
|
||
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.patreon.com/ncase" style="text-decoration:none">
|
||
(want to support me in making more stuff like this? check out my Patreon!)</a>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</reference>
|
||
<reference id="playtesters" hidden=yes large=yes>
|
||
<div>
|
||
|
||
Thank you, everyone who playtested <i>Crowds</i>
|
||
during its many stages of life!
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
<b>The Prototype:</b>
|
||
<br>
|
||
Maria ·
|
||
Monica Srivastava
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
<b>The Alpha:</b>
|
||
<br>
|
||
Glen Chiacchieri ·
|
||
Kalli Repzeti ·
|
||
Mali Akmanalp ·
|
||
Toph Tucker
|
||
|
||
<br><br>
|
||
<b>The Beta:</b>
|
||
<br>
|
||
Alex Dytrych ·
|
||
Amit Patel ·
|
||
Cassandra McClure ·
|
||
Catherine Ray ·
|
||
Josh Comeau ·
|
||
Kayle Sawyer ·
|
||
Matthew Conlen ·
|
||
Srini Kadamati ·
|
||
Vanessa Shen ·
|
||
Wick Perry
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
</reference>
|
||
|
||
</span>
|
||
|
||
<!--
|
||
|
||
And that's it! That's the last of what needed to a TRANSLATE
|
||
|
||
Thank you so, so much for doing this again, wow.
|
||
|
||
Finally, go to "translations.txt" and follow the instructions there,
|
||
in order to let this game "know" your translation exists.
|
||
|
||
-->
|