From f4e287e808b316cfb9c09be2dbbbb2b1a27be2f3 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: chairco Date: Mon, 7 May 2018 17:03:10 +0800 Subject: [PATCH 1/9] Add Traditional Chinese (zh-TW) Translation --- zh-TW.html | 1682 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 1682 insertions(+) create mode 100644 zh-TW.html diff --git a/zh-TW.html b/zh-TW.html new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fd06d5a --- /dev/null +++ b/zh-TW.html @@ -0,0 +1,1682 @@ + + + + + + + + 群眾的智慧與瘋狂 + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
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+ WISDOM + and/or + MADNESS +
+ of +
+ CROWDS +
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+ + + + + 遊戲時間: 30 分鐘 • 原作: nicky case • 2018 年 4 月
+ 翻譯: chairco • +
+ + + + + + + + + 載入中... + + + + 一起開始吧!
+ + + + + + + +

+ + 無法置啄，艾薩克·牛頓爵士是一位 +
+ 絕頂聰明的笨蛋。我的意思是再締造微積分與 +
+ 萬有引力理論後，理應他應該具備了足夠的智慧去 +
+ 進行金融投資，對吧？反正，讓我們長話短說， +
+ 牛頓爵士在 1720 年的全國投機浪潮南海泡沫事件 +
+ 一共損失了 $4,600,000 美金(換算成今日的貨幣)。 + +

+ + 如同牛頓先生在稍後所說: “我可以計算運行於天體 + 軌道的運動， +
+ 但無法預知人類的瘋狂。” + + 咦，糟透了
 + + + + + +
+ + Of course, that's not the only + 當然，那不是唯一 +
+ time markets, institutions, or entire +
+ democracies went haywire — the madness of +
+ crowds. And yet, just when you lose hope in humanity, +
+ you see citizens coordinating to rescue each other in +
+ hurricanes, communities creating solutions to problems, +
+ people fighting for a better world — the wisdom of crowds! + +
+ + But why do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom? No theory +
+ can explain everything, but I think a new field of study, +
+ network science, can guide us! And its core idea is this: to +
+ understand crowds, we should look not at the individual +
+ people, but at... + + ...their connections.
+ + + + + + + 一起繪製一個網絡圖吧！ + 每條連線代表兩人之間的友誼： + + + + 繪製連線 + + + + 抹除   連線 + + + + + 當你瞎搞完成塗鴉後， + 接著我們繼續
+ + + + + + 今日，社交關係不僅僅只是拍一些美美的 + 照片而已。 + 人們期望朋友們能夠瞭解自己。 + 舉例，透過搜尋同儕去 + 找出 朋友占多少比例(%)是（不包含自己）， + 酗酒的人。 + + + + + 繪製/刪除連線， 接著看看發生什麼事了！
 + + + + 酷，了解 + + + + 然而，網絡也可能會愚弄人們。 + 就像是，蘇軾題西林壁之中 + 兩句一般:”不識廬山真面目，只緣身在此山中” + 人可能會對社會產生了錯誤的想法，因為他們生處於社會中而對社會產生錯誤認知。 + + + +
+ 選項 額外的獎勵 ↑ +
+
+ ↓ 相關連結與參考文獻 +
+ + + + + + +
+ + 舉個例子，1991 年的一篇研究 指出，“幾乎所有的[學院]學生都表示他們的朋友酒喝得比自己還多。” + 但這看起來不大可能！那，為何他們會做出這樣的陳述？ + 嗯，你將透過繪製一個網絡圖來挖掘與找尋答案。 + 接下來... + + 欺騙所有人
+ + + + + + 拼圖時間! +
+ 如何欺騙所有人讓他們都認為所認識的多數的朋友 (門檻 50%) 是酗酒者 + （即便酗酒者只占 2 比 1 ） + + + + 被欺騙的人: + + + 距離 9 人 + + + 恭喜！你操縱了一群學生讓他們讓他們進入一個我們所無法想像的 + 不健康社會規範群體！很好，我們繼續！ + ...嗯. 感謝? + + + + + 剛剛你透過拼圖所創造出的東西我們稱為多數幻覺， + 這同時也解釋為何人們會認為自己的政治觀點是所有人的共識， + 或是為何極端主義比實際情況更為普遍。 + + + + 但人其實不僅只是被動接受他人思想與其行為，更進一步的還會去複製與擴散。 + 所以現在我們來看看網絡科學家所稱之的東西... + + “傳染擴散！”
+ + + + + + + + 現在，讓我們暫時先放棄 "閥值" 這東西。 + 下圖: 我們有個人 以及一些訊息。 + 一些是錯誤訊息。 就像那些很酷的孩子說的，"假新聞"。 + 每天，人們就像傳播病毒般將謠言傳遞給朋友。 + 然後他們的朋友再將這些謠言傳播給他們的朋友。接著繼續。 +
+ + 開始進行模擬！
+ (p.s: 當模擬進行時你無法繪圖) + + + + + 注意: 儘管 "傳染" 這個名字有點負面意義，但它可以是好的或是壞的（或是中性以及模棱兩可）。 + 這裡有些很強的統計證據指出像是抽煙、健康、幸福、投票模式與合作程度這些都是具有 “傳染性” -- 甚至也有些證據指明自殺事件和大規模的槍擊事件同樣也是。 + + + + 歐，實在令人沮喪
+ + + + 的確如此， + 但不管怎樣都要，拼圖時間 +
+ 繪製一個網絡 & 執行模擬，接著讓每個人都透過“傳染”進而感染。 +
+ （新增規則：你不可以刪除厚厚的連接線） + + + + 進入高潮囉
+ + + + 這類瘋狂的傳播被稱做 帶風向 + 牛頓先生在 1720 年時就是陷入風向中。 + 2008 年的全球金融機構同樣也是在類似這樣風向之中而下跌。 +

+ 然而: 這樣的模擬不盡然正確。 + 多數的想法 並不會如病毒一般擴散。 + 如果要被多數的信仰與行為“感染”，你必須“暴露”在更多的傳染之中。 + 所以，網絡科學家想出了更多更好的新方法去描述如何擴散這些想法/行為，他們稱做... + “複雜 傳染!”
+ + + + + + + 讓我們回到“閥值”且 + 以酗酒者作為例子！ + 當你遊行進行第一次時，人們並不會改變他們的行為。 + +

+ + 現在，假使人們開始喝酒時，我們再模擬一次 + 當他們的朋友超過 50% 都開始喝酒時！ + 在你開始這個模擬時，問問自己覺得應該會發生什麼事。 + +

+ + 現在，執行模擬，接著你會看到發生一些事情！
+ + + + + + + 不同於先前的“假新聞”的傳染， + 這種傳染並不會擴散給每一個人！ + 開始的前幾個人被感染，是因為他們只暴露在一個酗酒者，而這位酗酒者佔他朋友比例的一半。（是位邊緣人啊） + 相較之下，在樹狀末梢的人並未被“感染”，這是因為暴露於他們周遭的酗酒者朋友， + 並沒有超過 50% 的閥值。 + +
+ + 感染者的朋友的相對 % 非常重要。 + 這就是複雜傳染理論以及我們天真的認為像是病毒一般簡單的傳染理論。 + （你也可以說“簡單傳染”是感染率“超過 0%”的感染率） + +
+ + 然而，感染未必是壞事 — + 也許對於瘋狂的人群來說已經足夠，那麼... + ...瘋狂 智慧? + + + + + + + 在這裡，我們有個人 + 他是位志工... 我也不是很清楚哪類型， + 也許在颶風中拯救人群，或是教導當地平群社區的孩子，或也可能是很酷的一個人。 + 這裡的重點是，這是一個“好的”複雜傳染。 + 這一次我們假設這個閥值僅僅只有 25% — + 人會自願擔任志工，但僅僅只需要 25% 或是更多他們的朋友就會跟著一起去做。 + 嘿，善意的企業也是需要一點社會鼓勵的 + +

+ + ← 讓每個人都感受些好感！ + + + + + + + 注意: 志願服務僅僅只是眾多複雜傳染的一種！ + 其他包含：選民投票率、生活習慣、挑戰你的信仰、花時間深入了解問題 — 任何一種需要超過一次“揭露”的事情。 + 複雜傳染不一定是明智的， + 但是明智的是必定是一個複雜的傳染。 + +
+ + （那麼現實生活中哪些事情是簡單的傳染？ + 通常會是些瑣事，比如，“袋貂有 13 個乳頭”） + + + + + 現在，真的要展現複雜傳染的力量以及怪誕，讓我們 + 重溫... + + ...更早之前的地圖
+ + + + + + 還記得這個地圖嗎？這一次，有一個複雜 + 傳染，他會有一些些困難... +
+ 嘗試看看用複雜的智慧去“感染”所有的人
 + + + + （不要太拘束的按下‘開始’同時試試你想要的各種不同的方案） + + + + HOT DANG
+ + + + 現在，你可以會以為只要新增連接去擴散任一種“複雜”或是“簡單”，好或壞，智慧或者瘋狂的傳染。 + 但真的是如此嗎？那們，讓我們回顧... + + + ...其他更早先的地圖
+ + + + 假如你按下“開始”，下圖複雜傳染 將會開始擴散給所有人。 + 毫無意外的結果。 + 但現在，讓我們重複之前所做過的所有事情: + 繪製一個網絡圖防止傳染擴散到其他人身上！
+ + + + 你看見了嗎？ + 雖然較多的連結可能是會幫助簡單想法的擴散， + 複雜得想法卻會因為過多的連接而造成擴散的傷害！ + (這讓你想起互聯網了嗎，嗯哼？) + 這不僅是一個理論問題。這也可能會是一個生活上的問題... + + + + ...或是逝去.
+ + + + + 在 NASA 工作的人是聰明的笨蛋。 + 我意思是，他們運用牛頓的理論讓我們可以登陸 + 月球。 + 不管怎樣，長話短說，在 1986 年， + 儘管工程師發出了警告，他們人然發射了挑戰者號， + 最後失事爆炸且奪走 7 的人的性命。 + 失事的直接原因: + 那天的早晨太冷了。 + +
+ + 不直接的失事原因: 管理人員忽視了 + 工程師的警告。 + 為何？因為團體迷思. + 當一個團體組織過度緊密，(尤其當這個團體位於制度頂端)他們去抵抗挑戰他們信仰以及自我的複雜想法。 + +
+ + 所以，這也是為何這些機構如何陷入瘋狂之中。 + 但，我們該如何設計一個群眾的智慧？ + 簡短來說，兩個字: + + 結合 & 橋接
+ + + + + + + ← Too few connections, and an idea can't spread. +
+ Too many connections, and you get groupthink.
+ + + + + Draw a group that hits the sweet spot: + just connected enough to spread a complex idea! +
+ + + + + Simple enough! + The number of connections within a group is called bonding social capital. + But what about the connections... + ...between groups? + + + + As you may have already guessed, + the number of connections between groups is called + bridging social capital. + This is important, because it helps groups break out of their insular echo chambers! +
+ Build a bridge, to "infect" everyone with complex wisdom: + + + + Like bonding, there's a sweet spot for bridging, too. + (extra challenge: try drawing a bridge so thick that the complex contagion + can't pass through it!) + Now that we know how to "design" connections within and between groups, let's... + ...do BOTH at the same time! + + + + + FINAL PUZZLE! +
+ Draw connections within groups (bonding) and between groups (bridging) + to spread wisdom to the whole crowd: + + + + + Congrats, you've just drawn a very special kind of network! + Networks with the right mix of bonding and bridging + are profoundly important, and they're called... + “Small World Networks”
+ + + + + "Unity without uniformity". "Diversity without division". "E Pluribus Unum: out of many, one". +
+ No matter how it's phrased, + people across times and cultures often arrive at the same piece of wisdom: + + a healthy society needs a sweet spot of bonds within groups + and bridges between groups. + + That is: + + + + Not this... +
+ (because ideas can't spread) + + + nor this... +
+ (because you'll get groupthink) + + + ...but THIS: + + + + Network scientists now have a mathematical definition for this ancient wisdom: + the small world network. + This optimal mix of bonding+bridging describes how + our neurons are connected, + fosters collective creativity + and problem-solving, + and even once helped US President John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war! + So, yeah, small worlds are a big deal. + + + + ok, let's wrap this up...
+ + + + + + (pst... wanna know a secret?) + + + + Contagion: + + + simple + + + complex + + + The Contagion's Color: + + + Select a tool... + + + + Draw Network + + + Add Person + + + Add "Infected" + + + Drag Person + + + Delete Person + + + CLEAR IT ALL + + + + (...or, use keyboard shortcuts!) + + + + [1]: Add Person     [2]: Add "Infected" +
+ [Space]: Drag     [Backspace]: Delete + + + + + + +
+ IN CONCLUSION: it's all about... +
+
+ Contagions & Connections +
+ +
+ Contagions: + Like how neurons pass signals in a brain, + people pass beliefs & behaviors in a society. + Not only do we influence our friends, + we also influence our friends' friends, and even our friends' friends' friends! + (“be the change you wanna see in the world” etc etc) + But, like neurons, it's not just signals that matter, it's also... +
+ +
+ Connections: + Too few connections and complex ideas can't spread. + Too many connections and complex ideas get crushed by groupthink. + The trick is to build a small world network, the optimal mix of + bonding and bridging: e pluribus unum. +
+ +
+ (wanna make your own simulations? + check out Sandbox Mode, by clicking the (★) button below!) +
+ +
+ So, what about our question from the very beginning? + Why do some crowds turn to... +
+
+ ...wisdom and/or madness? +
+ + + + + + +
+ + From Newton to NASA to +
+ network science, we've covered a lot here +
+ today. Long story short, the madness of crowds +
+ is not necessarily due to the individual people, but due +
+ to how we're trapped in a network's sticky web. + +
+ + That does NOT mean abandoning personal responsibility, for +
+ we're also the weavers of that web. So, improve your contagions: +
+ be skeptical of ideas that flatter you, spend time understanding +
+ complex ideas. And, improve your connections: bond with similar +
+ folk, but also build bridges across cultural/political divides. + +
+ + We can weave a wise web. Sure, it's harder than doodling +
+ lines on a screen... + + ...but so, so worth it. + + + + + + + “The great triumphs and tragedies of history are caused, + not by people being fundamentally good or fundamentally bad, + but by people being fundamentally people.” + +
+ ~ Neil Gaiman & Terry Pratchett +
+ <3 + + + + + + +
+ + + created by +
+ NICKY CASE
+ + play my other shtuff · + + follow my tweeter + +

+ + + lots of love and thanks to +
+ MY PATREON SUPPORTERS
+ + help me make more like this! <3 +
+ + see my supporters · + + see my playtesters + +

+ + + ♫ music is + + "Friends 2018" and "Friends 2068" + by Komiku +
+ </> Crowds is + + fully open source + + +
+ + + +
+ + + + + + WIN + + + start simulation + + + reset & re-draw + + + Fan-made translations: + + + + + What the, no fan-made translations exist yet?! + + + (add your own!) + + + + + (original in English) + + + + + + + + + + +

+ A quick response to James Surowiecki's The Wisdom of Crowds +

+ +
+ + + + First off, I'm not dissing + + this book. + It's a good book, and Surowiecki was trying to tackle the same question I am: + “why do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom?” + +

+ + Surowiecki's answer: crowds make good decisions when everybody is as independent as possible. + He gives the story of a county fair, + where the townsfolk were invited to guess the weight of an ox. + Surprisingly, the average of all their guesses was better than any one guess. + But, here's the rub: the people have to guess independently of each other. + Otherwise, + they'd be influenced by earlier incorrect guesses, + and the average answer would be highly skewed. + +

+ + But... I don't think "make everyone as independent as possible" is the full answer. + Even geniuses, who we mischaracterize as the most independent thinkers, + are deeply influenced by others. As Sir Isaac Newton said, + “If I have seen further, it is by standing on the sholders of Giants.” + +

+ + So, which idea is correct? + Does wisdom come from thinking for yourself, or thinking with others? + The answer is: "yes". + +

+ + So that's what I'll try to explain in this explorable explanation: + how to get that sweet spot between independence and interdependence — + that is, how to get a wise crowd. + +
+ + + + +

+ What other kinds of connections are there? +

+ +
+ + For the sake of simplicity, + my simulations pretend that people can only be connected through friendships, + and that all friendships are equal. + But network scientists do consider other ways we can be connected, such as: + +
+
+ + + Directional connections. Alice is the boss of Bob, but Bob is not the boss of Alice. + Carol is the parent of Dave, but Dave is not the parent of Carol. + "Boss" & "parent" are directional relationships: + the relationship only goes one way. + In contrast, "friends" is a bidirectional relationship: + the relationship goes both ways. (well, hopefully) + +
+
+ + + Weighted connections. Elinor and Frankie are mere acquaintances. + George and Harry are Best Friends Forever. + Even though there's a "friendship" connection in both cases, the second one is stronger. + We say that these two connections have different "weights". + +
+
+ + + Just remember: all these simulations are wrong. The same way any map is "wrong". + You see the map on the left? Buildings aren't gray featureless blocks! + Words don't float above the city! However, maps are useful not despite being simplified, + but because they're simplified. Same goes for simulations, or any scientific theory. + Of course they're "wrong" — that's what makes them useful. + +
+ + + + +

+ What other kinds of contagions are there? +

+ +
+ + There are so, so many ways that network scientists can simulate "contagions"! + I picked the simplest one, for educational purposes. + But here's other ways you could do it: + +
+
+ + + Contagions with Randomness. + Being "exposed" to a contagion doesn't guarantee you'll be infected, + it only makes it more likely. + +
+
+ + + People have different contagion thresholds. + My simulations pretend that everyone has the same threshold for binge-drinking (50%) or + volunteering (25%) or misinformation (0%). + Of course, that's not true in real life, and you could make your sim reflect that. + +
+
+ + + An ecology of contagions. + What if there were multiple contagions, with different thresholds? + For example, a simple "madness" contagion and a complex "wisdom" contagion. + If someone's infected with madness, can they still be infected with wisdom? + Or vice versa? + Can someone be infected with both? + +
+
+ + + Contagions that mutate and evolve. + Ideas don't pass perfectly from one person to another the way a virus does. + Like a game of Telephone, the message gets mutated with each re-telling — + and sometimes the mutant will be more infectious than the original! + So, over time, ideas "evolve" to be more catchy, copy-able, contagious. + +
+ +
+ + + + +

+ I wanna learn more! What else can I read and/or play? +

+ +
+ + This explorable explanation was just a springboard for your curiosity, + so you can dive deeper into a vast pool of knowledge! + Here's more stuff on networks or social systems: + +

+ + + Book: + + Connected + by Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler (2009). + An accessible tour of how our networks affect our lives, for good or ill. + + Here's an excerpt: Preface & Chapter 1 + + +
+
+ + + Interactive: + + The Evolution of Trust by Nicky Case (me) (2017). + A game about the game theory of how cooperation is built... or destroyed. + +
+
+ + + Interactive: + + Parable of the Polygons by Vi Hart and Nicky Case (also me) (2014). + A story about how harmless choices can create a harmful world. + +
+
+ + + Or, if you just want to see a whole gallery of interactive edu-things, here's + + Explorable Explanations, + a hub for learning through play! + +
+ +
+ + + + + + + + + + + +

+ “virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did.” +

+ +
+ + “Biases in the perception of drinking norms among college students” by Baer et al (1991) +
+ + + + +

+ “The Majority Illusion” +

+ +
+ + “The Majority Illusion in Social Networks” by Lerman et al (2016). +
+ Related: + The Friendship Paradox. +
+ + + +

+ “strong statistical evidence that + smoking, health, happiness, voting patterns, and cooperation levels + are all contagious” +

+ +
+ + From Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's + wonderfully-written, layperson-accessible book, + + Connected (2009). + +
+ + + +

+ “some evidence that suicides are [contagious], too” +

+ +
+ + “Suicide Contagion and the Reporting of Suicide: Recommendations from a National Workshop” + by O'Carroll et al (1994), endorsed by the frickin' Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC). +
+ + + + +

+ “some evidence that mass shootings are [contagious], too” +

+ +
+ + + “Contagion in Mass Killings and School Shootings” by Towers et al (2015). + +

+ + Also see: the + + Don't Name Them campaign, + which urges that news outlets DO NOT air mass murderers' names, manifestos, and social media feeds. + This spreads the contagion. + Instead, news outlets should focus on the victims, first responders, civilian heroes, + and the grieving, healing community. + +
+ + + + +

+ “The world's financial institutions fell for such a cascade in 2008.” +

+ +
+ + “Lemmings of Wall Street” by Cass Sunstein, is a quick, non-technical read. + Published in Oct 2008, right in the wake of the crash. +
+ + + + +

+ “the complex contagion theory.” +

+ +
+ + + “Threshold Models of Collective Behavior” by Granovetter (1978) + was the first time, as far as I know, anyone described a "complex contagion" model. + (although he didn't use that specific name) + +

+ + + “Evidence for complex contagion models of social contagion from observational data” + by Sprague & House (2017) + shows that complex contagions do, in fact, exist. (at least, in the social media data they looked at) + +

+ + Finally, + + “Universal behavior in a generalized model of contagion” by Dodds & Watts (2004) + proposes a model that unifies all kinds of contagions: + simple and complex, biological and social! + +
+ + + +

+ “the possum has 13 nipples” +

+
+ arranged in a ring of 12 nipples, plus one in the middle +
+ + + +

+ “groupthink” +

+ +
+ This Orwell-inspired phrase was coined by Irving L. Janis in 1971. + + In his original article, + Janis investigates cases of groupthink, lists its causes, and — thankfully — + some possible remedies. +
+ + + + +

+ “bonding and bridging social capital” +

+ +
+ These two types of social capital — "bonding" and "bridging" — + were named by Robert Putnam in his insightful 2000 book, + + Bowling Alone. His discovery: + across almost all empircal measures of social connectiveness, + Americans are more alone than ever. + Golly. +
+ + + + +

+ “bridging social capital has a sweet spot” +

+ +
+ + “The Strength of Weak Ties” by Granovetter (1973) + showed that connections across groups helps spread simple contagions (like information), + but + + “Complex Contagions and the Weakness of Long Ties” by Centola & Macy (2007) + showed that connections across groups may not help complex contagions, + and it fact, can hurt their spread! +
+ + + + +

+ “the small world network” +

+ +
+ + The idea of the "small world" was popularized by + Travers & Milgram's 1969 experiment, + which showed that, on average, any two random people in the United States + were just six friendships apart — "six degrees of separation"! + +

+ + The small-world network got more mathematical meat on its bones with + + “Collective dynamics of small-world networks” by Watts & Strogatz (1998), + which proposed an algorithm for creating networks + with both low average path length (low degree of separation) + and high clustering (friends have lots of mutual friends) — + that is, a network that hits the sweet spot! + +

+ + You can also play with + + the visual, interactive adaptation of that paper by Bret Victor (2011). + +
+ + + + +

+ “[small world networks] describe how our neurons are connected” +

+ +
+ + “Small-world brain networks” by Bassett & Bullmore (2006). +
+ + + + +

+ “[small world networks] give rise to collective creativity” +

+ +
+ + + “Collaboration and Creativity: The Small World Problem” by Uzzi & Spiro (2005). + This paper analyzed the social network of the Broadway scene over time, + and discovered that, yup, the network's most creative when it's a "small world" network! + +
+ + + + +

+ “[small world networks] give rise to collective problem-solving” +

+ +
+ See + + “Social Physics” by MIT Professor Alex "Sandy" Pentland (2014) + for a data-based approach to collective intelligence. +
+ + + + +

+ “[small world networks] helped John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war!” +

+ +
+ + Besides the NASA Challenger explosion, the most notorious example of groupthink + was the Bay of Pigs fiasco. + In 1961, US President John F. Kennedy and his team of advisors thought + — for some reason — + it would be a good idea to secretly invade Cuba and overthrow Fidel Castro. + They failed. + Actually, worse than failed: it led to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, + the closest the world had ever been to full-scale nuclear war. + +

+ + Yup, JFK really screwed up on that one. + +

+ + But, having learnt some hard lessons from the Bay of Pigs fiasco, + JFK re-organized his team to avoid groupthink. + Among many things, he: + 1) actively encouraged people to voice criticism, + thus lowering the "contagion threshold" for alternate ideas. + And + 2) he broke his team up into sub-groups before reconvening, + which gave their group a "small world network"-like design! + Together, this arrangement allowed for a healthy diversity of opinion, + but without being too fractured — a wisdom of crowds. + +

+ + And so, with the same individuals who decided the Bay of Pigs, + but re-arranged collectively to decide on the Cuban Missile Crisis... + JFK's team was able to reach a peaceful agreement with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. + The Soviets would remove their missiles from Cuba, and in return, + the US would promise not to invade Cuba again. + (and also agreed, in secret, to remove the US missiles from Turkey) + +

+ + And that's the story of how all of humanity almost died. + But a small world network saved the day! Sort of. + +

+ + You can read more about this + + on Harvard Business Review, + or from + + the original article on groupthink. + +
+ + + + +

+ “we influence [...] our friends' friends' friends!” +

+ +
+ Again, from Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's + wonderful book, + + Connected (2009). +
+ + + +

+ “be skeptical of ideas that flatter you” +

+
+ yes, including the ideas in this explorable explanation. +
+ + + +

+ ★ Sandbox Mode ★ +

+ +
+ The keyboard shortcuts (1, 2, space, backspace) + work in all the puzzles, not just Sandbox Mode! + Seriously, you can go back to a different chapter, + and edit the simulation right there. + In fact, that's how I created all these puzzles. Have fun! +
+ + + + + + + + From 127d65a64f6c5919be3da9b77af2f9c291869000 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: chairco Date: Mon, 7 May 2018 23:30:24 +0800 Subject: [PATCH 2/9] Finish 2/3 --- zh-TW.html | 334 +++++++++++++++++++++++++---------------------------- 1 file changed, 158 insertions(+), 176 deletions(-) diff --git a/zh-TW.html b/zh-TW.html index fd06d5a..f3dda7f 100644 --- a/zh-TW.html +++ b/zh-TW.html @@ -347,34 +347,31 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase.
- Of course, that's not the only - 當然，那不是唯一 + 當然，市場，機構甚至
- time markets, institutions, or entire + 整個民主國家的失控並非
- democracies went haywire — the madness of + 只有這一次 — 群眾的瘋狂。
- crowds. And yet, just when you lose hope in humanity, + 然而當你對人失去希望時，
- you see citizens coordinating to rescue each other in + 你會看見公民們在颶風中相互協助，
- hurricanes, communities creating solutions to problems, + 社區會為各類疑難雜症找出解決方案，人們戰鬥是
- people fighting for a better world — the wisdom of crowds! + 為了更美好的世界 — 群眾的智慧！
- But why do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom? No theory + 但是 為什麼 時而瘋狂時而智慧呢？
- can explain everything, but I think a new field of study, + 沒有任何理論可以解釋這一切，但我認為有個新的研究領域，
- network science, can guide us! And its core idea is this: to + 網絡科學, 可以給我們指引！ 他的核心思想:
- understand crowds, we should look not at the individual -
- people, but at... + 理解群眾, 我們不應該關注 個人，而是... - ...their connections.
+ ...他們之間的連接。
@@ -692,150 +689,143 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase. - ← Too few connections, and an idea can't spread. + ← 過少的連結，導致思想無法被傳遞。
- Too many connections, and you get groupthink.
+ 過多的連接，結果就是團體迷思。
 - Draw a group that hits the sweet spot: - just connected enough to spread a complex idea! + 繪製一個群組可以得到最佳的結果: + 僅僅用足夠的連接來傳遞複雜想法！
- Simple enough! - The number of connections within a group is called bonding social capital. - But what about the connections... - ...between groups? + 簡單吧！ + 在這裡頭團體被連接的數量被稱為結合型社會資本. + 但這是怎樣的一種連接... + ...伴隨 團體? - As you may have already guessed, - the number of connections between groups is called - bridging social capital. - This is important, because it helps groups break out of their insular echo chambers! + 正如你已經猜想的那樣， + 團體之間所連接的數量被 + 稱為 + 橋接型社會資本。 + 這非常重要，因為他協助團體打破他們自己的疆界！
- Build a bridge, to "infect" everyone with complex wisdom: + 建立一座橋樑，用複雜智慧去“感染”每一個人: - Like bonding, there's a sweet spot for bridging, too. - (extra challenge: try drawing a bridge so thick that the complex contagion - can't pass through it!) - Now that we know how to "design" connections within and between groups, let's... - ...do BOTH at the same time! + 如同結合，橋接也是有一個蜜月點。 + (額外挑戰: 嘗試繪製一個厚橋，以至於複雜傳染 + 無法 通過它！) + 現在我們理解如何“設計”連接組內與組外，讓我們... + ...兩者同時一起進行！ - FINAL PUZZLE! + 最終地圖!
- Draw connections within groups (bonding) and between groups (bridging) - to spread wisdom to the whole crowd: + 繪製一個連接組內（結合）和組外（橋接）來傳遞智慧給所有的群眾: - Congrats, you've just drawn a very special kind of network! - Networks with the right mix of bonding and bridging - are profoundly important, and they're called... - “Small World Networks”
+ 恭喜，你在剛剛畫出一個非常特殊的網絡！ + 網絡同時具有正確的結合以及橋接是非常重要的，他們被稱為... + “小世界網絡”
- "Unity without uniformity". "Diversity without division". "E Pluribus Unum: out of many, one". + “統一但又不統一”。“具有多樣性卻又不具差異”。“E Pluribus Unum（拉丁語）: 合眾為一”
- No matter how it's phrased, - people across times and cultures often arrive at the same piece of wisdom: + 不管用何種方式表達，不同時代和文化的人們通常會得到相同的智慧: - a healthy society needs a sweet spot of bonds within groups - and bridges between groups. - - That is: + 一個健康的社會需要團體內結合以及團體間橋樑的蜜月點。 + + 這就是: - Not this... + 不是這樣...
- (because ideas can't spread) + (因為想法無法傳遞) - nor this... + 也不是這樣...
- (because you'll get groupthink) + (因為會造成團體迷思) - ...but THIS: + ...而是 這樣: - Network scientists now have a mathematical definition for this ancient wisdom: - the small world network. - This optimal mix of bonding+bridging describes how - our neurons are connected, - fosters collective creativity - and problem-solving, - and even once helped US President John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war! - So, yeah, small worlds are a big deal. + 網絡科學家對於這古老智慧有一個數學上的定義: + 小世界網絡。 + 這個最佳混合了結合+橋接描述了神經網路如何連接， + 培養集體創意與問題解決，甚至協助美國總統約翰 F. 甘迺迪（幾乎）避免了一場核戰！是的，所以，小世界是件大事。 - ok, let's wrap this up...
+ ok, 準備開始收尾了...
- (pst... wanna know a secret?) + (噓... 想知道一個秘密嗎?) - Contagion: + 傳染: - simple + 簡單 - complex + 複雜 - The Contagion's Color: + 傳染得顏色: - Select a tool... + 選一個工具... - Draw Network + 繪製網絡 - Add Person + 新增人 - Add "Infected" + 新增“感染源” - Drag Person + 移動人 - Delete Person + 刪除人 - CLEAR IT ALL + 清除全部 - (...or, use keyboard shortcuts!) + (...或是使用快捷鍵!) - [1]: Add Person     [2]: Add "Infected" + [1]: 新增人     [2]: 新增 “感染源”
- [Space]: Drag     [Backspace]: Delete + [空格]: 移動     [退後鍵]: 刪除 @@ -843,7 +833,7 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase.
- IN CONCLUSION: it's all about... + 言而總之: 這一切都是關於...
- Contagions & Connections + 傳染 & 連接
- Contagions: - Like how neurons pass signals in a brain, - people pass beliefs & behaviors in a society. - Not only do we influence our friends, - we also influence our friends' friends, and even our friends' friends' friends! - (“be the change you wanna see in the world” etc etc) - But, like neurons, it's not just signals that matter, it's also... + 傳染: + 就像是神經元在大腦內傳遞訊號一樣, + 人們在社會中傳遞信念 & 行為. + 不僅僅影響我們的朋友，我們也間接影響了朋友的朋友， + 甚至是我們朋友的朋友的朋友的朋友！ + （像是要“改變世界不如先改變自己”此類）但是如同神經元， + 這不僅是信號的問題，這也是... +
- Connections: - Too few connections and complex ideas can't spread. - Too many connections and complex ideas get crushed by groupthink. - The trick is to build a small world network, the optimal mix of - bonding and bridging: e pluribus unum. + 連接: + 太少的連接使得複雜的想法無法被傳遞。 + 過多的連結會使得複雜的想法被團體迷思所破壞。 + 這裡的竅門在於建構一個小型世界網絡並使用最佳的 + 結合和橋接組合: e pluribus unum.（合眾為一）
- (wanna make your own simulations? - check out Sandbox Mode, by clicking the (★) button below!) + (想要自己模擬一下嗎? + 試試沙盒模式, 點擊下面的 (★) 按鈕!)
- So, what about our question from the very beginning? - Why do some crowds turn to... + 那，關於我們一開始所提出的問題？ + 為什麼有些團體變得...
- ...wisdom and/or madness? + ...智慧 且/或 瘋狂?
@@ -921,44 +912,40 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase.
- From Newton to NASA to + 從牛頓到 NASA 網絡科學，
- network science, we've covered a lot here + 今天我們在這提了非常多東西
- today. Long story short, the madness of crowds + 長或短說，群眾的瘋狂無法歸咎於 獨立的個人，而應該
- is not necessarily due to the individual people, but due -
- to how we're trapped in a network's sticky web. + 去歸咎於我們所深陷的社交網絡內。
- That does NOT mean abandoning personal responsibility, for + 這並不 意味著拋棄了個人的責任，對我們而也其實 + 也是這張網絡的編織者。所以，改善你的傳播時的想法:
- we're also the weavers of that web. So, improve your contagions: + 對於奉承阿諛奉承的話保持懷疑態度，花點時間來理解
- be skeptical of ideas that flatter you, spend time understanding + 複雜的想法。同時改善你的連接態度，不要只待在同溫層
- complex ideas. And, improve your connections: bond with similar -
- folk, but also build bridges across cultural/political divides. + 而應該要跨越文化與政治立場的鴻溝來建立溝通橋樑。
- We can weave a wise web. Sure, it's harder than doodling + 我們可以創造一個智慧網絡。當然這肯定比
- lines on a screen... + 畫幾條線在螢幕上難些... - ...but so, so worth it. + ...但這是值得的。 - “The great triumphs and tragedies of history are caused, - not by people being fundamentally good or fundamentally bad, - but by people being fundamentally people.” + “人世間多數的偉大勝利和慘烈悲劇發生並非 + 人性本善或者是本惡，只是因為人之所以為人而已”
~ Neil Gaiman & Terry Pratchett @@ -973,39 +960,39 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase.
- created by + 創作者
NICKY CASE
- play my other shtuff · + 玩玩其他作品 · - follow my tweeter + 關注我的 tweeter

- lots of love and thanks to + 非常，以及特別感謝
- MY PATREON SUPPORTERS
+ 我的 PATREON 支持者
- help me make more like this! <3 + 讓我做出更多像這部一樣美好的作品！<3
- see my supporters · + 看看支持的的名字 · - see my playtesters + 看看測試的好友們

- ♫ music is + ♫ 音樂來自 - "Friends 2018" and "Friends 2068" + "Friends 2018" 和 "Friends 2068" by Komiku
- </> Crowds is + </> Crowds 是 - fully open source + 完全開源
@@ -1021,13 +1008,13 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase. WIN - start simulation + 開始模擬 - reset & re-draw + 重置 & 重畫 - Fan-made translations: + 紛絲製作的翻譯們: @@ -1055,48 +1042,45 @@ Sorry, not done yet! These Bonus Boxes need you to TRANSLATE, too:

- A quick response to James Surowiecki's The Wisdom of Crowds + 對 James Surowiecki 的著作群眾的智慧 + 簡短的評論

- First off, I'm not dissing + 首先，我並非要批評與詆毀 - this book. - It's a good book, and Surowiecki was trying to tackle the same question I am: - “why do some crowds turn to madness, or wisdom?” + 這本書。 + 這是一本非常棒的書，同事 Surowiecki 不斷嘗試 + 回答同一個問題，那就是: + “為何同樣的情況，群眾可能會變得瘋狂，但也可能變得更具智慧？” +

- Surowiecki's answer: crowds make good decisions when everybody is as independent as possible. - He gives the story of a county fair, - where the townsfolk were invited to guess the weight of an ox. - Surprisingly, the average of all their guesses was better than any one guess. - But, here's the rub: the people have to guess independently of each other. - Otherwise, - they'd be influenced by earlier incorrect guesses, - and the average answer would be highly skewed. + Surowiecki 的答案是: 當群眾內的每個人都能儘量做出獨立的判斷 + 就能做出明智的選擇。 + 他給了一個鄉村裡所發生的故事，鎮上的村名被邀請去猜一把斧頭的重量。令人震驚的事，他們所有的人的猜測平均數會比任何，一人所猜測的平均數更為接近。 + 但這有個前提: 人們必須獨立地進行猜測。否則他們可能就會被先前錯誤的猜測所影響，而且平均答案也會因此而嚴重的扭曲。

- But... I don't think "make everyone as independent as possible" is the full answer. - Even geniuses, who we mischaracterize as the most independent thinkers, - are deeply influenced by others. As Sir Isaac Newton said, - “If I have seen further, it is by standing on the sholders of Giants.” + 但是... 我不認為“讓每個人儘量保持獨立可能性”是完整的答案。 + 即便是天才，那寫可能被我們認為是有史以來最為獨立的思考者們也可能深深被被別人所影響著。就像是艾薩克·牛頓爵士所說的，“如果我看得比別人更遠，那是因為我站在巨人的肩膀上。”

- So, which idea is correct? - Does wisdom come from thinking for yourself, or thinking with others? - The answer is: "yes". + 所以，哪個答案才是正確的？ + 智慧源於自我，或是來自於與其他人一同思考？ + 答案是: “皆是”。

- So that's what I'll try to explain in this explorable explanation: - how to get that sweet spot between independence and interdependence — - that is, how to get a wise crowd. + 所以這就是我在這個探索學習中嘗試想要解釋的: + 如何保持獨立與互相依賴中得到最佳的蜜月點 — + 也就是說，如何得到一個富有智慧的群眾。
@@ -1104,45 +1088,43 @@ Sorry, not done yet! These Bonus Boxes need you to TRANSLATE, too:

- What other kinds of connections are there? + 還有其他種類的連接方式嗎？

- For the sake of simplicity, - my simulations pretend that people can only be connected through friendships, - and that all friendships are equal. - But network scientists do consider other ways we can be connected, such as: + 簡單來說，我的模擬僅僅假設人們會透過友誼互相連接， + 以及所有的友誼皆是平等。 + 但網絡科學家的確會把其他我們可能連接在一起的關係考慮進來，例如:

- Directional connections. Alice is the boss of Bob, but Bob is not the boss of Alice. - Carol is the parent of Dave, but Dave is not the parent of Carol. - "Boss" & "parent" are directional relationships: - the relationship only goes one way. - In contrast, "friends" is a bidirectional relationship: - the relationship goes both ways. (well, hopefully) + 單向聯繫。 Alice 是 Bob 的老闆, 但 Bob 不是 Alice 的老闆。 + Carol 是 Dave 的父母，但 Dave 不是 Carol 的父母。 + “老闆” & “父母” 就是 單向 的關聯: + 這種關係是單一方向。 + 反過來，“朋友”是一個雙向 + 關係: 這種關係兩邊都能相通。（希望如此）

- Weighted connections. Elinor and Frankie are mere acquaintances. - George and Harry are Best Friends Forever. - Even though there's a "friendship" connection in both cases, the second one is stronger. - We say that these two connections have different "weights". + 權重關係。 Elinor 和 Frankie 只是相互認識。 + George 和 Harry 是彼此最好的朋友。 + 即使這些都是“友誼”連結，第二類的連結顯然更強些。 + 我們說這兩種關係具備不同“權重”。

- Just remember: all these simulations are wrong. The same way any map is "wrong". - You see the map on the left? Buildings aren't gray featureless blocks! - Words don't float above the city! However, maps are useful not despite being simplified, - but because they're simplified. Same goes for simulations, or any scientific theory. - Of course they're "wrong" — that's what makes them useful. + 要記住: 這些模擬情境都是錯誤的。 同樣的，所有的地圖也都是“錯誤的”。 + 你看到左邊的地圖嗎？建築物才不是灰灰的一大塊！ + 語言文字不會飄散在都市上空！然而地圖是有用的儘管並非他們被簡化，而是因為他們是被簡化的。 + 當然，他們是“錯誤” — 這使得他們變得有用。
@@ -1150,20 +1132,20 @@ Sorry, not done yet! These Bonus Boxes need you to TRANSLATE, too:

- What other kinds of contagions are there? + 還有其他類型的傳染存在嗎？

- There are so, so many ways that network scientists can simulate "contagions"! - I picked the simplest one, for educational purposes. - But here's other ways you could do it: + 網絡科學家有很多方法用來模擬“傳染”！出於教育的目的， + 我選了最簡單的一種。 + 但，人然有許多其他方式可以嘗試去做:

- Contagions with Randomness. + 隨機性的傳染. Being "exposed" to a contagion doesn't guarantee you'll be infected, it only makes it more likely. From 45fdf7391fecf018864634535b8a677fffd9c062 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: chairco Date: Mon, 7 May 2018 23:56:48 +0800 Subject: [PATCH 3/9] Update translations.txt and fix typo --- translations.txt | 3 ++- zh-TW.html | 14 +++++++------- 2 files changed, 9 insertions(+), 8 deletions(-) diff --git a/translations.txt b/translations.txt index bf681d0..9ed3450 100644 --- a/translations.txt +++ b/translations.txt @@ -34,4 +34,5 @@ fr: Français es: Español (Castellano) ru: Русский vi: Vietnamese -zh-CN: 简体中文 \ No newline at end of file +zh-CN: 简体中文 +zh-TW: 繁體中文 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/zh-TW.html b/zh-TW.html index f3dda7f..5911912 100644 --- a/zh-TW.html +++ b/zh-TW.html @@ -282,13 +282,13 @@ it should automatically highlight what the text is (usually in white). CROWDS
-
+
遊戲時間: 30 分鐘 • 原作: nicky case • 2018 年 4 月
- 翻譯: chairco • + 翻譯: chairco • English
@@ -972,15 +972,15 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase. 非常，以及特別感謝 -
+
我的 PATREON 支持者
- - 讓我做出更多像這部一樣美好的作品！<3 -
- 看看支持的的名字 · + 看看支持者的名字 · 看看測試的好友們 +
+ + 讓我做出更多像這部一樣美好的作品！<3

From c65388112eec83d2e5cc15fed461653ad58564c4 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: chairco Date: Tue, 8 May 2018 00:05:01 +0800 Subject: [PATCH 4/9] Update home page --- zh-TW.html | 12 +++++------- 1 file changed, 5 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-) diff --git a/zh-TW.html b/zh-TW.html index 5911912..9ddf8ff 100644 --- a/zh-TW.html +++ b/zh-TW.html @@ -271,15 +271,13 @@ it should automatically highlight what the text is (usually in white).
- the + 群眾 + 的 + 智慧 + 與/或 + 瘋狂
- WISDOM - and/or - MADNESS
- of -
- CROWDS
From ea7a0f89bd3c94e7fecc84e553879b209db9e1b2 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: chairco Date: Tue, 8 May 2018 01:51:41 +0800 Subject: [PATCH 5/9] Finish all but leave a part on small world, and should do some retouch in word --- zh-TW.html | 216 +++++++++++++++++++++++++---------------------------- 1 file changed, 101 insertions(+), 115 deletions(-) diff --git a/zh-TW.html b/zh-TW.html index 9ddf8ff..2c799e8 100644 --- a/zh-TW.html +++ b/zh-TW.html @@ -332,10 +332,9 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase.

- 如同牛頓先生在稍後所說: “我可以計算運行於天體 - 軌道的運動， -
- 但無法預知人類的瘋狂。” + 如同牛頓先生在稍後所說: + “我可以計算運行於天體 + 軌道的運動，但無法預知人類的瘋狂。” 咦，糟透了
 @@ -1137,45 +1136,43 @@ Sorry, not done yet! These Bonus Boxes need you to TRANSLATE, too: 網絡科學家有很多方法用來模擬“傳染”！出於教育的目的， 我選了最簡單的一種。 - 但，人然有許多其他方式可以嘗試去做: + 但，仍然有許多其他方式可以嘗試去做:

- 隨機性的傳染. - Being "exposed" to a contagion doesn't guarantee you'll be infected, - it only makes it more likely. + 傳染與隨機性. + “暴露”於傳染之中並不能保證你會被傳染， + 它只能讓你更容易被傳染。

- People have different contagion thresholds. - My simulations pretend that everyone has the same threshold for binge-drinking (50%) or - volunteering (25%) or misinformation (0%). - Of course, that's not true in real life, and you could make your sim reflect that. + 人們有著不同的傳染閥值。 + 我的模擬情境假設每個人有著同樣閥值對於酗酒(50%)或是志工(25%)或是錯誤訊息(0%)。 + 當然，這在現實生活中並不真實，你可以製作你的模擬來反映這些情境。

- An ecology of contagions. - What if there were multiple contagions, with different thresholds? - For example, a simple "madness" contagion and a complex "wisdom" contagion. - If someone's infected with madness, can they still be infected with wisdom? - Or vice versa? - Can someone be infected with both? + 傳染的生態環境。 + 假如現在有複數 個傳染，且存在不同的閥值？ + 比如說，有個簡單的“瘋狂”傳染和一個複雜的“智慧”傳染。 + 假如有個人被瘋狂所傳染，他們還能夠被智慧傳染嗎？ + 反之亦然？ + 有沒有人可能會同時被兩者所傳染？

- Contagions that mutate and evolve. - Ideas don't pass perfectly from one person to another the way a virus does. - Like a game of Telephone, the message gets mutated with each re-telling — - and sometimes the mutant will be more infectious than the original! - So, over time, ideas "evolve" to be more catchy, copy-able, contagious. + 傳染的變異與進化。 + 人的想法是無法完美像病毒一般從一個人傳遞到另外一個人身上。 + 就像傳話遊戲，訊息總是會在每一次重述過程中發生變化。— + 而且有時這些變化甚至比原先的部分更具有傳染性！所以隨著時間流逝，思想會“演化”得更加吸引人，可複製，更具有傳染性。
@@ -1185,53 +1182,52 @@ Sorry, not done yet! These Bonus Boxes need you to TRANSLATE, too:

- I wanna learn more! What else can I read and/or play? + 我想要學習更多！還有那些我可以研讀與/或遊戲的？

- This explorable explanation was just a springboard for your curiosity, - so you can dive deeper into a vast pool of knowledge! - Here's more stuff on networks or social systems: + 這個探索學習僅僅只是讓你產生好奇心的跳板， + 而你可以在知識的領域裡潛入更深！這裡還有一些關於網絡或是社會系統的教材:

- Book: + 書目: Connected by Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler (2009). - An accessible tour of how our networks affect our lives, for good or ill. + 毫無阻礙地瀏覽我們的網絡如何影響著我們的生活，無論好與壞。 - Here's an excerpt: Preface & Chapter 1 + 這裡是一點書摘: 前言 & 第一章

- Interactive: + 互動: - The Evolution of Trust by Nicky Case (me) (2017). - A game about the game theory of how cooperation is built... or destroyed. + 信任的演化 by Nicky Case (me) (2017). + 一場關於博弈理論的遊戲，展示合作系統如何建立...或是被摧毀。

- Interactive: + 互動: - Parable of the Polygons by Vi Hart and Nicky Case (also me) (2014). - A story about how harmless choices can create a harmful world. + 多邊形預言 by Vi Hart and Nicky Case (also me) (2014). + 一個關於無害選擇如何創造出一個傷害性的世界的故事。

- Or, if you just want to see a whole gallery of interactive edu-things, here's + 或是，假如你只想看些完整的互動教育項目，這裡有 Explorable Explanations, - a hub for learning through play! + 存放一些遊戲來學習！
@@ -1250,55 +1246,53 @@ Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE:

- “virtually all [college] students reported that their friends drank more than they did.” + “實際上，所有的[大學]學生都認為他們朋友喝酒喝得比自己還要瘋狂。”

- “Biases in the perception of drinking norms among college students” by Baer et al (1991) + “大學生集體飲酒行為觀點上的偏見” by Baer et al (1991)

- “The Majority Illusion” + “多數幻覺”

- “The Majority Illusion in Social Networks” by Lerman et al (2016). + “社交網絡中的多數幻覺” by Lerman et al (2016).
- Related: - The Friendship Paradox. + 相關連結: + 矛盾友誼.

- “strong statistical evidence that - smoking, health, happiness, voting patterns, and cooperation levels - are all contagious” + “強而有力的統計證據顯示，抽煙、健康、幸福、投票模式，與合作層度都是相互傳染的”

- From Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's - wonderfully-written, layperson-accessible book, + 節錄自 Nicholas Christakis 與 James Fowler's + 一本普通人也看得懂，寫得非常好一書， - Connected (2009). + 連結 (2009).

- “some evidence that suicides are [contagious], too” + “一些證據表明自殺也是[傳染]”

- “Suicide Contagion and the Reporting of Suicide: Recommendations from a National Workshop” + “自殺傳染與自殺的報導: 來自一個國民研討會建議” by O'Carroll et al (1994), endorsed by the frickin' Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC).
@@ -1306,17 +1300,17 @@ Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE:

- “some evidence that mass shootings are [contagious], too” + “一些證據也顯示大規模槍殺也屬於[傳染]”

- “Contagion in Mass Killings and School Shootings” by Towers et al (2015). + “大規模槍擊事件和校園槍擊事件中的傳染” by Towers et al (2015).

- Also see: the + 另見: Don't Name Them campaign, which urges that news outlets DO NOT air mass murderers' names, manifestos, and social media feeds. @@ -1330,131 +1324,125 @@ Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE:

- “The world's financial institutions fell for such a cascade in 2008.” + “全世界金融機構都在 2008 年的金融危機中倒下”

- “Lemmings of Wall Street” by Cass Sunstein, is a quick, non-technical read. - Published in Oct 2008, right in the wake of the crash. + “華爾街袋鼠” by Cass Sunstein, 是偏適合快讀，且不帶太多技術相關的書。 + Published in Oct 2008, 剛好在危機醒來之時.

- “the complex contagion theory.” + “複雜的傳染理論。”

- “Threshold Models of Collective Behavior” by Granovetter (1978) - was the first time, as far as I know, anyone described a "complex contagion" model. - (although he didn't use that specific name) + “集體行為與閥值模型” by Granovetter (1978) + 據我所知，這是有史以來第一次有人將騎描述為“複雜傳染”模型。 + (儘管他沒有用到這特定名稱)

- “Evidence for complex contagion models of social contagion from observational data” + “從觀察書劇中得到的複雜傳染模型在社交傳染證明” by Sprague & House (2017) - shows that complex contagions do, in fact, exist. (at least, in the social media data they looked at) + 展示複雜傳染實際上是存在的。（至少在作者所調查的社交媒體資料上存在）

- Finally, + 最後, - “Universal behavior in a generalized model of contagion” by Dodds & Watts (2004) - proposes a model that unifies all kinds of contagions: - simple and complex, biological and social! + “通用行為在一個傳染的廣義模型” by Dodds & Watts (2004) + 提出一整合所有類型的的傳染模型: + 簡單與複雜，生理畫與社會化！

- “the possum has 13 nipples” + “袋貂有 13 個乳頭”

- arranged in a ring of 12 nipples, plus one in the middle + 12 個乳頭排成一個圈圈，多出一個在中間。

- “groupthink” + “團體迷思”

- This Orwell-inspired phrase was coined by Irving L. Janis in 1971. + 這是受 Orwell 式說法是在 1971 年由 Irving L. Janis 所創。 - In his original article, - Janis investigates cases of groupthink, lists its causes, and — thankfully — - some possible remedies. + 在他的原創文章中, + Janis 調查團體迷思案例，列出成因以及 — 讓人感謝 — + 一些可惜的補救方法。

- “bonding and bridging social capital” + “結合與橋接型的社會資本”

- These two types of social capital — "bonding" and "bridging" — - were named by Robert Putnam in his insightful 2000 book, + 這兩種社會資本型態 — “結合”和“橋接” — + 是由 Robert Putnam 再他 2000 年非常遠見的一本書所命名， - Bowling Alone. His discovery: - across almost all empircal measures of social connectiveness, - Americans are more alone than ever. - Golly. + Bowling Alone. 他的發現: + 綜觀 所有的 實證量測社交連接，美國人比以往更加的寂寞。 + 我的老天鵝。

- “bridging social capital has a sweet spot” + “橋接型的社會資本有一個最佳點”

- “The Strength of Weak Ties” by Granovetter (1973) - showed that connections across groups helps spread simple contagions (like information), - but + “弱連結優勢理論” by Granovetter (1973) + 展示不同群體的連結對於簡單傳染的幫助（比如訊息），但是 “Complex Contagions and the Weakness of Long Ties” by Centola & Macy (2007) - showed that connections across groups may not help complex contagions, - and it fact, can hurt their spread! + 給了一個推論是不同群體的連接實際上無法幫助複雜傳染，甚至會傷害到他們的傳遞！

- “the small world network” + “小世界網路”

- The idea of the "small world" was popularized by - Travers & Milgram's 1969 experiment, - which showed that, on average, any two random people in the United States - were just six friendships apart — "six degrees of separation"! + “小世界網路"的概念是由 + Travers & Milgram's 1969 實驗，進而的到普及的。 + 這個實驗顯示，平均來說，在美國隨機挑選兩人，他們之間都可能有六個朋友可以聯繫起來 — ”六度分割理論“

- The small-world network got more mathematical meat on its bones with + 小世界網路的概念在這篇論文中得到了更多數學證明 “Collective dynamics of small-world networks” by Watts & Strogatz (1998), - which proposed an algorithm for creating networks - with both low average path length (low degree of separation) - and high clustering (friends have lots of mutual friends) — - that is, a network that hits the sweet spot! + 這篇論文提到一個創造人際網路的演算法，這個算法具備有較短的平均長度（互相隔離程度低） + 與較高的聚集程度（朋友們彼此間有很多共同好友）— 這就是一個人際網絡的最佳狀態！

- You can also play with + 你可以試玩一下 the visual, interactive adaptation of that paper by Bret Victor (2011). @@ -1476,7 +1464,7 @@ Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE:

- “[small world networks] give rise to collective creativity” + “[小世界網絡] 使得集體創造力提升”

@@ -1492,7 +1480,7 @@ Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE:

- “[small world networks] give rise to collective problem-solving” + “[小世界網路] 使得集體解決問題能力提升”

@@ -1566,37 +1554,35 @@ Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE:

- “we influence [...] our friends' friends' friends!” + “我們影響 [...] 朋友的朋友的朋友!”

- Again, from Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler's - wonderful book, + 再一次, 摘自 Nicholas Christakis 和 James Fowler's + 完美的一書, - Connected (2009). + 連結 (2009).

- “be skeptical of ideas that flatter you” + “對阿諛奉承保持懷疑”

- yes, including the ideas in this explorable explanation. + 是的， 也包含這個探索學習之中話語.

- ★ Sandbox Mode ★ + ★ 沙盒模式 ★

- The keyboard shortcuts (1, 2, space, backspace) - work in all the puzzles, not just Sandbox Mode! - Seriously, you can go back to a different chapter, - and edit the simulation right there. - In fact, that's how I created all these puzzles. Have fun! + 鍵盤快速鍵（1, 2, 空白鍵，後退鍵）在所有的地圖遊戲裡都適用，不僅只在沙盒模式！ + 認真來說，你可以回到前面不同章節，然後編輯那裡的模擬器。 + 其實，這也是我創造所有地圖的方式。祝玩得愉快！
@@ -1614,8 +1600,8 @@ Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE:
@@ -333,10 +333,12 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase.

如同牛頓先生在稍後所說: - “我可以計算運行於天體 - 軌道的運動，但無法預知人類的瘋狂。” +
+ “我可以計算運行於天體軌道的運動， +
+ 但無法預知人類的瘋狂。” - 咦，糟透了
 + 誒，糟透了
 @@ -360,13 +362,15 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase.
- 但是 為什麼 時而瘋狂時而智慧呢？ + 但是為什麼時而瘋狂時而智慧呢？
- 沒有任何理論可以解釋這一切，但我認為有個新的研究領域， + 沒有任何理論可以解釋這一切，
- 網絡科學, 可以給我們指引！ 他的核心思想: + 但我認為有個新的研究領域，
- 理解群眾, 我們不應該關注 個人，而是... + 網絡科學, 可以給我們指引！ 它的核心思想: +
+ 理解群眾, 我們不應該關注個人，而是... ...他們之間的連接。
@@ -396,8 +400,7 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase. - 今日，社交關係不僅僅只是拍一些美美的 - 照片而已。 + 今日，社交關係不僅僅只是拍一些美美的照片而已。 人們期望朋友們能夠瞭解自己。 舉例，透過搜尋同儕去 找出 朋友占多少比例(%)是（不包含自己）， @@ -482,10 +485,10 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase. - 現在，讓我們暫時先放棄 "閥值" 這東西。 - 下圖: 我們有個人 以及一些訊息。 - 一些是錯誤訊息。 就像那些很酷的孩子說的，"假新聞"。 - 每天，人們就像傳播病毒般將謠言傳遞給朋友。 + 現在，讓我們暫時先放棄“閥值”這東西。 + 下圖: 我們有個小紅人 以及一些訊息。 + 一些是錯誤訊息。就像那些酷孩子說的，"假新聞"。 + 每天，小紅人就像傳播病毒般將謠言傳遞給朋友。 然後他們的朋友再將這些謠言傳播給他們的朋友。接著繼續。
@@ -495,8 +498,8 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase. - 注意: 儘管 "傳染" 這個名字有點負面意義，但它可以是好的或是壞的（或是中性以及模棱兩可）。 - 這裡有些很強的統計證據指出像是抽煙、健康、幸福、投票模式與合作程度這些都是具有 “傳染性” -- 甚至也有些證據指明自殺事件和大規模的槍擊事件同樣也是。 + 注意: 儘管”傳染“這個名字有點負面意義，但它可以是好的或壞的（或是中性以及模棱兩可）。 + 這裡有些很強的統計證據指出像是抽煙、健康、幸福、投票模式與默契程度這些都是具有“傳染性” -- 甚至也有些證據指明自殺事件和大規模的槍擊事件同樣也是。 @@ -505,7 +508,7 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase. 的確如此， - 但不管怎樣都要，拼圖時間 + 不管怎樣都要繼續，拼圖時間！
繪製一個網絡 & 執行模擬，接著讓每個人都透過“傳染”進而感染。
@@ -532,19 +535,16 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase. - 讓我們回到“閥值”且 - 以酗酒者作為例子！ - 當你遊行進行第一次時，人們並不會改變他們的行為。 + 讓我們回到“閥值”與酗酒者作的為例子！當遊戲進行第一次時，人們並不會改變他們的行為。

- - 現在，假使人們開始喝酒時，我們再模擬一次 - 當他們的朋友超過 50% 都開始喝酒時！ - 在你開始這個模擬時，問問自己覺得應該會發生什麼事。 + 現在，讓我們再模擬一次 + 當他有超過 50% 朋友開始飲酒時！，人們也會開始喝酒，這時會發生什麼！ + 在開始這個模擬時，問問自己覺得應該會發生什麼事。

- 現在，執行模擬，接著你會看到發生一些事情！
+ 現在，執行模擬，接著看看到實際發生的一些事情！
@@ -559,13 +559,13 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase.
- 感染者的朋友的相對 % 非常重要。 - 這就是複雜傳染理論以及我們天真的認為像是病毒一般簡單的傳染理論。 - （你也可以說“簡單傳染”是感染率“超過 0%”的感染率） + 感染者的朋友的相對 比例 % 非常重要。 + 這就是複雜傳染理論和我們天真的認為像是病毒一般的簡單的傳染理論。 + （你也可以說“簡單傳染”是感染率“超過 0%” 的傳染）
- 然而，感染未必是壞事 — + 然而，傳染未必是壞事 — 也許對於瘋狂的人群來說已經足夠，那麼... ...瘋狂 智慧? @@ -574,7 +574,7 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase. - 在這裡，我們有個人 + 在這裡，我們有個小藍人 他是位志工... 我也不是很清楚哪類型， 也許在颶風中拯救人群，或是教導當地貧窮社區的孩子，或也可能是很酷的一個人。 這裡的重點是，這是一個“好的”複雜傳染。 @@ -1181,7 +1181,7 @@ Sorry, not done yet! These Bonus Boxes need you to TRANSLATE, too:

- 我想要學習更多！還有那些我可以研讀與/或遊戲的？ + 我想要學習更多！還有那些我可以研讀與/或遊戲？

From 34388c815cfd6c7b8c4b0a35087d1939854f2d38 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: chairco Date: Tue, 8 May 2018 09:53:00 +0800 Subject: [PATCH 8/9] Finish it and do some word improve, close #47 --- zh-TW.html | 187 +++++++++++++++++++++++++---------------------------- 1 file changed, 87 insertions(+), 100 deletions(-) diff --git a/zh-TW.html b/zh-TW.html index 2965abd..082554b 100644 --- a/zh-TW.html +++ b/zh-TW.html @@ -326,9 +326,9 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase.
進行金融投資，對吧？反正，讓我們長話短說，
- 牛頓爵士在 1720 年的全國投機浪潮南海泡沫事件 + 他在 1720 年的全國投機浪潮南海泡沫事件
- 一共損失了 $4,600,000 美金(換算成今日的貨幣)。 + 一共損失了 $460 萬美金(換算成今日的貨幣)。

@@ -338,7 +338,7 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase.
但無法預知人類的瘋狂。” - 誒，糟透了
 + 我們懷念他
 @@ -352,13 +352,13 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase.
只有這一次 — 群眾的瘋狂。
- 然而當你對人失去希望時， + 然而當你對人類失去希望時，
你會看見公民們在颶風中相互協助，
- 社區會為各類疑難雜症找出解決方案，人們戰鬥是 + 社區會為各類疑難雜症找出解決方案，
- 為了更美好的世界 — 群眾的智慧！ + 人們奮鬥是為了更美好的世界 — 群眾的智慧！
@@ -393,7 +393,7 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase. - 當你瞎搞完成塗鴉後， + 當試著瞎搞完成首次塗鴉後， 接著我們繼續
@@ -403,7 +403,7 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase. 今日，社交關係不僅僅只是拍一些美美的照片而已。 人們期望朋友們能夠瞭解自己。 舉例，透過搜尋同儕去 - 找出 朋友占多少比例(%)是（不包含自己）， + 認知朋友占多少比例(%)是（不包含自己）， 酗酒的人。 @@ -418,13 +418,13 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase. 然而網絡也可能會愚弄人們。 - 像”不識廬山真面目，只緣身在此山中” + 如”當局者迷，旁觀者清”成語 人可能會對社會產生錯誤的想法，因為他們生處於社會中而對社會產生錯誤認知。
- 選項 額外的獎勵 ↑ + 選項額外的獎勵 ↑
↓ 相關連結與參考文獻 @@ -437,9 +437,9 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase.
- 舉個例子，1991 年的一篇研究 指出，“幾乎所有的[大學]學生都表示他們的朋友酒喝得比自己還多。” + 舉個例，1991 年的一篇研究 指出，“幾乎所有的[大學]學生都表示他們的朋友酒喝得比自己還多。” 但這看起來不大可能！那，為何他們會做出這樣的陳述？ - 嗯，你將透過繪製一個網絡圖來挖掘與找尋答案。 + 嗯，你將透過繪製一個網絡圖來挖掘與找到答案。 接下來... 欺騙所有人
@@ -450,8 +450,8 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase. 拼圖時間!
- 如何欺騙所有人讓他們都認為所認識的多數的朋友 (門檻 50%) 是酗酒者 - （即便酗酒者只占 2 比 1 ） + 如何透過畫線連結關係來欺騙所有人讓他們會認為所認識的多數的朋友 (門檻 50%) 是酗酒者 + （即便酗酒者只占 2 比 1, 或是說 1/3 比例 ） @@ -461,14 +461,14 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase. 距離 9 人 - 恭喜！你操縱了一群學生讓他們讓他們進入一個我們所無法想像的 - 不健康社會規範群體！很好，我們繼續！ + 恭喜！你操縱了一群學生讓他們進入一個我們所無法想像的 + 不健康社會規範群體！很好，讓我們再加把勁！ ...嗯. 感謝? - 剛剛你透過拼圖所創造出的東西我們稱為多數幻覺， + 剛剛透過拼圖所創造出的東西我們稱作多數幻覺， 這同時也解釋為何人們會認為自己的政治觀點是所有人的共識， 或是為何極端主義比實際情況更為普遍。 @@ -485,11 +485,11 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase. - 現在，讓我們暫時先放棄“閥值”這東西。 + 現在，暫時先放棄“閥值(臨界值)”這東西。 下圖: 我們有個小紅人 以及一些訊息。 - 一些是錯誤訊息。就像那些酷孩子說的，"假新聞"。 + 一些是錯誤訊息。像那些酷孩子說的"假新聞"。 每天，小紅人就像傳播病毒般將謠言傳遞給朋友。 - 然後他們的朋友再將這些謠言傳播給他們的朋友。接著繼續。 + 然後他們的朋友再將這些謠言傳播給他們的朋友。不斷繼續。
開始進行模擬！
@@ -516,11 +516,11 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase. - 進入高潮囉
+ 進入高潮囉！
- 這類瘋狂的傳播被稱做 帶風向 + 這類瘋狂的傳播被稱為帶風向 牛頓先生在 1720 年時就是陷入風向中。 2008 年的全球金融機構同樣也是在類似這樣風向之中而下跌。

@@ -535,16 +535,16 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase. - 讓我們回到“閥值”與酗酒者作的為例子！當遊戲進行第一次時，人們並不會改變他們的行為。 + 讓我們回到“閥值”與酗酒者作的例子！當遊戲進行第一次時，人們並不會改變他們的行為。

- 現在，讓我們再模擬一次 - 當他有超過 50% 朋友開始飲酒時！，人們也會開始喝酒，這時會發生什麼！ + 現在，我們再模擬一次 + 當他有超過 50% 以上的朋友開始飲酒時！，他也會開始喝酒，這時會發生什麼！ 在開始這個模擬時，問問自己覺得應該會發生什麼事。

- 現在，執行模擬，接著看看到實際發生的一些事情！
+ 執行模擬，接著觀察實際發生的一些事情！
@@ -553,15 +553,15 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase. 不同於先前的“假新聞”的傳染， 這種傳染並不會擴散給每一個人！ - 開始的前幾個人被感染，是因為他們只暴露在一個酗酒者，而這位酗酒者佔他朋友比例的一半。（是位邊緣人啊） + 開始的前幾個人被感染，是因為他們只暴露在一個酗酒者，而這位酗酒者佔他朋友比例的一半。（是位邊緣人啊，howhow 表示） 相較之下，在樹狀末梢的人並未被“感染”，這是因為暴露於他們周遭的酗酒者朋友， 並沒有超過 50% 的閥值。
- 感染者的朋友的相對 比例 % 非常重要。 - 這就是複雜傳染理論和我們天真的認為像是病毒一般的簡單的傳染理論。 - （你也可以說“簡單傳染”是感染率“超過 0%” 的傳染） + 感染者的朋友的相對百分比例非常重要。 + 這就是複雜傳染理論和我們天真的覺得像是病毒般的簡單的傳染理論。 + （也可以說“簡單傳染”是感染率“超過 0%” 的傳染）
@@ -579,8 +579,8 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase. 也許在颶風中拯救人群，或是教導當地貧窮社區的孩子，或也可能是很酷的一個人。 這裡的重點是，這是一個“好的”複雜傳染。 這一次我們假設這個閥值僅僅只有 25% — - 人會自願擔任志工，但僅僅只需要 25% 或是更多他們的朋友就會跟著一起去做。 - 嘿，善意的企業也是需要一點社會鼓勵的 + 人會自願擔任志工，但僅僅只需要 25% 或是更多，他們的朋友就會跟著一起去做。 + 嘿，善意的企業也是需要一點社會鼓勵的嘛。

@@ -604,7 +604,7 @@ Also, bolds a word/phrase, and italicizes a word/phrase. - 現在，真的要展現複雜傳染的力量以及怪誕，讓我們 + 現在，真的要展現複雜傳染的力量以及其怪誕，讓我們 重溫... ...更早之前的地圖
@@ -1046,7 +1046,7 @@ Sorry, not done yet! These Bonus Boxes need you to TRANSLATE, too: - 首先，我並非要批評與詆毀 + 首先，我並非要批評 這本書。 這是一本非常棒的書，同時 Surowiecki 不斷嘗試 @@ -1063,7 +1063,7 @@ Sorry, not done yet! These Bonus Boxes need you to TRANSLATE, too:

- 但是... 我不認為“讓每個人儘量保持獨立可能性”是完整的答案。 + 但是... 我不認為“讓每個人儘量保持獨立可能性”是個完整的答案。 即便是天才，那寫可能被我們認為是有史以來最為獨立的思考者們也可能深深被被別人所影響著。就像是艾薩克·牛頓爵士所說的，“如果我看得比別人更遠，那是因為我站在巨人的肩膀上。”

@@ -1133,7 +1133,7 @@ Sorry, not done yet! These Bonus Boxes need you to TRANSLATE, too:
- 網絡科學家有很多方法用來模擬“傳染”！出於教育的目的， + 出於教育的目的性質，網絡科學家有很多方法用來模擬“傳染”！ 我選了最簡單的一種。 但，仍然有許多其他方式可以嘗試去做: @@ -1169,8 +1169,8 @@ Sorry, not done yet! These Bonus Boxes need you to TRANSLATE, too: 傳染的變異與進化。 - 人的想法是無法完美像病毒一般從一個人傳遞到另外一個人身上。 - 就像傳話遊戲，訊息總是會在每一次重述過程中發生變化。— + 人的想法是無法完美像病毒一般，從一個人傳遞到另外一個人身上。 + 就像傳話遊戲，訊息總是會在每次重述過程中發生變化。— 而且有時這些變化甚至比原先的部分更具有傳染性！所以隨著時間流逝，思想會“演化”得更加吸引人，可複製，更具有傳染性。
@@ -1223,7 +1223,7 @@ Sorry, not done yet! These Bonus Boxes need you to TRANSLATE, too:
- 或是，假如你只想看些完整的互動教育項目，這裡有 + 或，假如你只想看些完整的互動教育項目，這裡有 Explorable Explanations, 存放一些遊戲來學習！ @@ -1271,7 +1271,7 @@ Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE:

- “強而有力的統計證據顯示，抽煙、健康、幸福、投票模式，與合作層度都是相互傳染的” + “強而有力的統計證據顯示，抽煙、健康、幸福、投票模式，與默契度都是相互傳染的”

@@ -1279,7 +1279,7 @@ Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE: 節錄自 Nicholas Christakis 與 James Fowler's 一本普通人也看得懂，寫得非常好一書， - 連結 (2009). + Connected (2009).
@@ -1311,12 +1311,10 @@ Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE: 另見: - Don't Name Them campaign, - which urges that news outlets DO NOT air mass murderers' names, manifestos, and social media feeds. - This spreads the contagion. - Instead, news outlets should focus on the victims, first responders, civilian heroes, - and the grieving, healing community. - + Don't Name Them 活動, + 這促使新聞媒體不再宣傳兇手的姓名，聲明與社交網路上的言論。 + 這會擴散不良的傳染。 + 相反，新聞媒體應該更關注受害者，第一個發現人與市民英雄和受害者的家屬與社區。
@@ -1343,8 +1341,14 @@ Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE: “集體行為與閥值模型” by Granovetter (1978) - 據我所知，這是有史以來第一次有人將騎描述為“複雜傳染”模型。 - (儘管他沒有用到這特定名稱) + 據我所知，這是有史以來第一次有人將其描述為“複雜傳染”模型。 + (儘管沒有用到這特詞彙) + +

+ + + “Complex Contagions and the Weakness of Long Ties” by Centola & Macy (2007) + 創造了“複雜傳染”這個用詞，且展示出這與“簡單傳染”之間的重要區別。

@@ -1359,7 +1363,7 @@ Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE: “通用行為在一個傳染的廣義模型” by Dodds & Watts (2004) 提出一整合所有類型的的傳染模型: - 簡單與複雜，生理畫與社會化！ + 簡單與複雜，生理化與社會化！
@@ -1379,10 +1383,10 @@ Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE:
- 這是受 Orwell 式說法是在 1971 年由 Irving L. Janis 所創。 + 這種 Orwell 式說法是在 1971 年由 Irving L. Janis 所創。 在他的原創文章中, - Janis 調查團體迷思案例，列出成因以及 — 讓人感謝 — + Janis 調查團體迷思案例，列出成因以及 — 謝天謝地 — 一些可惜的補救方法。
@@ -1398,7 +1402,7 @@ Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE: 是由 Robert Putnam 再他 2000 年非常遠見的一本書所命名， Bowling Alone. 他的發現: - 綜觀 所有的 實證量測社交連接，美國人比以往更加的寂寞。 + 綜觀所有的實證量測社交連接，美國人比以往更加的寂寞。 我的老天鵝。
@@ -1415,7 +1419,7 @@ Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE: 展示不同群體的連結對於簡單傳染的幫助（比如訊息），但是 “Complex Contagions and the Weakness of Long Ties” by Centola & Macy (2007) - 給了一個推論是不同群體的連接實際上無法幫助複雜傳染，甚至會傷害到他們的傳遞！ + 給了一個推論，是不同群體的連接實際上無法幫助複雜傳染，甚至會傷害到他們的傳遞！
@@ -1428,8 +1432,8 @@ Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE:
“小世界網路"的概念是由 - Travers & Milgram's 1969 實驗，進而的到普及的。 - 這個實驗顯示，平均來說，在美國隨機挑選兩人，他們之間都可能有六個朋友可以聯繫起來 — ”六度分割理論“ + Travers & Milgram's 1969 實驗，進而普及的。 + 這個實驗顯示，平均來說在美國隨機挑選兩人，彼此間都可能有六個朋友可以連結起來 — ”六度分割理論“

@@ -1451,7 +1455,7 @@ Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE:

- “[small world networks] describe how our neurons are connected” + “[小世界網絡]描述了我們的神經元是如何相互連接的”

@@ -1463,15 +1467,14 @@ Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE:

- “[小世界網絡] 使得集體創造力提升” + “[小世界網絡]使集體創造力提升”

“Collaboration and Creativity: The Small World Problem” by Uzzi & Spiro (2005). - This paper analyzed the social network of the Broadway scene over time, - and discovered that, yup, the network's most creative when it's a "small world" network! + 這篇文章分析了長期以來百老匯領域的社交網絡，發現當人際網絡是個“小世界”網絡，是最具創造力的！沒錯。
@@ -1479,73 +1482,58 @@ Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE:

- “[小世界網路] 使得集體解決問題能力提升” + “[小世界網路]使得集體解決問題能力提升”

See “Social Physics” by MIT Professor Alex "Sandy" Pentland (2014) - for a data-based approach to collective intelligence. + 這是一個基於數據為基礎來探討集體智慧的方法。

- “[small world networks] helped John F. Kennedy (barely) avoid nuclear war!” + “[小世界網路]協助了約翰 F. 甘迺迪（幾乎）避免了一場核戰！”

- Besides the NASA Challenger explosion, the most notorious example of groupthink - was the Bay of Pigs fiasco. - In 1961, US President John F. Kennedy and his team of advisors thought - — for some reason — - it would be a good idea to secretly invade Cuba and overthrow Fidel Castro. - They failed. - Actually, worse than failed: it led to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, - the closest the world had ever been to full-scale nuclear war. + 除了 NASA 挑戰者號的爆炸事件外，在團體迷思例子中最惡名昭彰的就是豬玀灣事件。 + 1961 年，美國總統約翰 F. 甘迺迪和他的顧問團 — 基與某些原因 — 認為暗中侵略古巴並推翻當時的領袖菲德爾·卡斯楚是個好的主意。 + 想當然爾，他們當然失敗了。 + 實際上，比入侵失敗更糟糕的事: 這導致了 1962 年的古巴導彈危機，這是有史以來全世界最接近全面核戰的一次。

- Yup, JFK really screwed up on that one. + 沒錯，約翰·甘迺迪搞砸了這件事。

- But, having learnt some hard lessons from the Bay of Pigs fiasco, - JFK re-organized his team to avoid groupthink. - Among many things, he: - 1) actively encouraged people to voice criticism, - thus lowering the "contagion threshold" for alternate ideas. - And - 2) he broke his team up into sub-groups before reconvening, - which gave their group a "small world network"-like design! - Together, this arrangement allowed for a healthy diversity of opinion, - but without being too fractured — a wisdom of crowds. + 但，從豬玀灣事件他吸取了教訓，約翰·甘迺迪重組了他的顧問團避免所謂團體的迷思。他也做了很多事情，包含: + 1) 積極鼓勵人們提出批評聲音，進而讓其他提案點子能降低所謂的“傳染閥值”。 + 2) 再重新制定決策流程前，他將自己團隊打破成為一個個小的子團隊，而這些小團隊就類似“小世界網絡”式的世界！ + 綜合來看，這樣的安排允許了一個健康的多樣意見環境，但同時也不會使得 — 群眾的智慧因為分散而削弱。

- And so, with the same individuals who decided the Bay of Pigs, - but re-arranged collectively to decide on the Cuban Missile Crisis... - JFK's team was able to reach a peaceful agreement with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. - The Soviets would remove their missiles from Cuba, and in return, - the US would promise not to invade Cuba again. - (and also agreed, in secret, to remove the US missiles from Turkey) + 我們可以看見，儘管決定豬玀灣事件是同一人，但重組團隊在古巴導彈危機上決議...約翰·甘迺迪的團隊能夠與蘇聯領袖赫魯雪夫達成了和平協議，蘇聯撤離了他們在古巴上的導彈，與之相應是美國不再侵略古巴。（他們也秘密的承諾從土耳宜撤離美國導彈）

- And that's the story of how all of humanity almost died. - But a small world network saved the day! Sort of. + 這就是一個當全人類的人性幾乎滅絕同時。 + 但小世界網絡拯救了全人類！可以這樣說

- You can read more about this + 你可以研讀更多這類主題內容 - on Harvard Business Review, - or from + 在哈佛商業周看評論上, + 或者是從 - the original article on groupthink. + 團體迷思的原始文章.
@@ -1581,19 +1569,18 @@ Final thing! These references also need you to TRANSLATE:
鍵盤快速鍵（1, 2, 空白鍵，後退鍵）在所有的地圖遊戲裡都適用，不僅只在沙盒模式！ 認真來說，你可以回到前面不同章節，然後編輯那裡的模擬器。 - 其實，這也是我創造所有地圖的方式。祝玩得愉快！ + 其實，這也是我創造所有地圖的方法。祝玩得愉快！