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What Happens Next? COVID-19 Futures, Explained With Playable Simulations 🔬 Here's a real deep dive! 28 min read/play:

What Happens Next?

COVID-19 Futures, Explained With Playable Simulations

by Marcel Salathé (epidemiologist) and Nicky Case (art/code)

🕐 28 min play/read

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  1. (NOTE: This guide was published on April 30th, 2020. Many details will become outdated, but Epidemiology 101 will remain true, and we're confident this guide will cover 95% of possible futures.) ↩

  2. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0357_article ↩

  3. source ↩

  4. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11427-020-1661-4 ↩

  5. source, and sidenote on 'infectious' ↩

  6. source ↩

  7. source ↩

  8. https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2334-14-480 ↩

  9. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31995857/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7001239/ ↩

  10. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article ↩

  11. sas ↩

  12. exact formula... ↩

  13. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105420/covid-icu-admission-rates-us-by-age-group/ Lower end, 5%. ↩

  14. https://sccm.org/Blog/March-2020/United-States-Resource-Availability-for-COVID-19 ↩

  15. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-pandemic-herd-immunity-uk-boris-johnson/608065/ ↩

  16. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1365-3156.2006.01568.x ↩

  17. https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/comix-impact-of-physical-distance-measures-on-transmission-in-the-UK.html ↩

  18. log scale ↩

  19. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793? ↩

  20. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1745691614568352 ↩

  21. sources plz, esp for incubation period 5 days ↩

  22. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5 ↩

  23. asds ↩

  24. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/09/science.abb6936 ↩

  25. incoming ↩

  26. outgoing_aerosols ↩

  27. outgoing_droplets ↩

  28. homemade ↩

  29. ss ↩

  30. That BMJ article ↩

  31. s ↩

  32. ss ↩

  33. s ↩

  34. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 The average R-value of these 100 cities is 1.83 , One-degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0225  ↩

  35. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/ ↩

  36. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2170159/ ↩

  37. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01063-8 ↩

  38. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00751-9 ↩

  39. https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/01/navigating-covid-19-pandemic/ ↩

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Feetnotes:

wash your hands! 👏