diff --git a/css/index.css b/css/index.css index 0bc03aa..bd80272 100644 --- a/css/index.css +++ b/css/index.css @@ -95,6 +95,10 @@ icon[r]{ background-image: url(../icons/r.png); } +.nowrap{ + white-space: nowrap; +} + p > img{ width: 100%; border: 1px solid #ddd; diff --git a/index.html b/index.html index d420ccf..689fce5 100644 --- a/index.html +++ b/index.html @@ -119,7 +119,7 @@
It's estimated that, at the start of a COVID-19 outbreak, the virus jumps from an
If we simulate "double every 4 days" and nothing else, on a population starting with just 0.001%
If we simulate "double every 4 days" and nothing else, on a population starting with just 0.001%
Click "Start" to play the simulation! You can re-play it later with different settings: (technical caveats: 3)
@@ -135,7 +135,7 @@ -The more
The more
How's this change the growth of an epidemic? Let's find out:
@@ -147,9 +147,9 @@But, this simulation is still wrong. We're missing the fact that
For simplicity's sake, let's pretend that all
For simplicity's sake, let's pretend that all
With COVID-19, it's estimated you're
With COVID-19, it's estimated you're
Let's find out.
-Red curve is current cases
- Gray curve is total cases (current + recovered
Red curve is current cases
+ Gray curve is total cases (current + recovered
NOTE: The simulations that inform policy are way, way more sophisticated than this! But the SIR Model can still explain the same general findings, even if missing the nuances.
-Actually, let's add one more nuance: before an
Actually, let's add one more nuance: before an
For COVID-19, it's estimated that you're
Red + Pink curve is current cases (infectious
- Gray curve is total cases (current + recovered
Red + Pink curve is current cases (infectious
+ Gray curve is total cases (current + recovered
Not much changes! How long you stay
Not much changes! How long you stay
Why's that? Because of the first-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:
@@ -224,7 +224,7 @@But remember, the fewer
But remember, the fewer
NOTE: Total cases does not stop at herd immunity, but overshoots it! And it crosses the threshold exactly when current cases peak. (This happens no matter how you change the settings – try it for yourself!)
-This is because when there are more non-
This is because when there are more non-
If there's only one lesson you take away from this guide, here it is – it's an extremely complex diagram so please take time to fully absorb it:
@@ -300,7 +300,7 @@Increased handwashing cuts flus & colds in high-income countries by ~25%16, while the city-wide lockdown in London cut close contacts by ~70%17. So, let's assume handwashing can reduce R by up to 25%, and distancing can reduce R by up to 70%:
-Play with this calculator to see how % of non-
Play with this calculator to see how % of non-
Oh.
-This is the "second wave" everyone's talking about. As soon as we remove the lockdown, we get R > 1 again. So, a single leftover
This is the "second wave" everyone's talking about. As soon as we remove the lockdown, we get R > 1 again. So, a single leftover
A lockdown isn't a cure, it's just a restart.
@@ -388,7 +388,7 @@This is called contact tracing. It's an old idea, was used at an unprecedented scale to contain Ebola23, and now it's core part of how Taiwan & South Korea are containing COVID-19!
-(It also lets us use our limited tests more efficiently, to find pre-symptomatic
(It also lets us use our limited tests more efficiently, to find pre-symptomatic
Traditionally, contacts are found with in-person interviews, but those alone are too slow for COVID-19's ~48 hour window. That's why contact tracers need help, and be supported by – NOT replaced by – contact tracing apps.
@@ -418,7 +418,7 @@Thus, even without 100% contact quarantining, we can get R < 1 without a lockdown! Much better for our mental & financial health. (As for the cost to folks who have to self-isolate/quarantine, governments should support them – pay for the tests, job protection, subsidized paid leave, etc. Still way cheaper than intermittent lockdown.)
-We then keep R < 1 until we have a vaccine, which turns susceptible
We then keep R < 1 until we have a vaccine, which turns susceptible
But for COVID-19 in humans, as of May 1st 2020, "how long" is the big unknown.
For these simulations, let's say it's 1 year.
- Here's a simulation starting with 100%
Oh.
-Counterintuitively, summer makes the spikes worse and regular! This is because summer reduces new
Counterintuitively, summer makes the spikes worse and regular! This is because summer reduces new
Thankfully, the solution to this is pretty straightforward – just vaccinate people every fall/winter, like we do with flu shots:
diff --git a/words/words.html b/words/words.html index 396aa37..459f09e 100644 --- a/words/words.html +++ b/words/words.html @@ -69,7 +69,7 @@It's estimated that, at the start of a COVID-19 outbreak, the virus jumps from an
If we simulate "double every 4 days" and nothing else, on a population starting with just 0.001%
If we simulate "double every 4 days" and nothing else, on a population starting with just 0.001%
Click "Start" to play the simulation! You can re-play it later with different settings: (technical caveats: 3)
@@ -85,7 +85,7 @@ -The more
The more
How's this change the growth of an epidemic? Let's find out:
@@ -97,9 +97,9 @@But, this simulation is still wrong. We're missing the fact that
For simplicity's sake, let's pretend that all
For simplicity's sake, let's pretend that all
With COVID-19, it's estimated you're
With COVID-19, it's estimated you're
Let's find out.
-Red curve is current cases
-Gray curve is total cases (current + recovered
Red curve is current cases
+Gray curve is total cases (current + recovered
NOTE: The simulations that inform policy are way, way more sophisticated than this! But the SIR Model can still explain the same general findings, even if missing the nuances.
-Actually, let's add one more nuance: before an
Actually, let's add one more nuance: before an
For COVID-19, it's estimated that you're
Red + Pink curve is current cases (infectious
-Gray curve is total cases (current + recovered
Red + Pink curve is current cases (infectious
+Gray curve is total cases (current + recovered
Not much changes! How long you stay
Not much changes! How long you stay
Why's that? Because of the first-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:
@@ -174,7 +174,7 @@ the second-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:But remember, the fewer
But remember, the fewer
NOTE: Total cases does not stop at herd immunity, but overshoots it! And it crosses the threshold exactly when current cases peak. (This happens no matter how you change the settings – try it for yourself!)
-This is because when there are more non-
This is because when there are more non-
If there's only one lesson you take away from this guide, here it is – it's an extremely complex diagram so please take time to fully absorb it:
@@ -250,7 +250,7 @@ the second-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:Increased handwashing cuts flus & colds in high-income countries by ~25%16, while the city-wide lockdown in London cut close contacts by ~70%17. So, let's assume handwashing can reduce R by up to 25%, and distancing can reduce R by up to 70%:
-Play with this calculator to see how % of non-
Play with this calculator to see how % of non-
Oh.
-This is the "second wave" everyone's talking about. As soon as we remove the lockdown, we get R > 1 again. So, a single leftover
This is the "second wave" everyone's talking about. As soon as we remove the lockdown, we get R > 1 again. So, a single leftover
A lockdown isn't a cure, it's just a restart.
@@ -338,7 +338,7 @@ the second-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:This is called contact tracing. It's an old idea, was used at an unprecedented scale to contain Ebola23, and now it's core part of how Taiwan & South Korea are containing COVID-19!
-(It also lets us use our limited tests more efficiently, to find pre-symptomatic
(It also lets us use our limited tests more efficiently, to find pre-symptomatic
(It also lets us use our limited tests more efficiently, to find pre-symptomatic
Traditionally, contacts are found with in-person interviews, but those alone are too slow for COVID-19's ~48 hour window. That's why contact tracers need help, and be supported by – NOT replaced by – contact tracing apps.
@@ -368,7 +368,7 @@ the second-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:Thus, even without 100% contact quarantining, we can get R < 1 without a lockdown! Much better for our mental & financial health. (As for the cost to folks who have to self-isolate/quarantine, governments should support them – pay for the tests, job protection, subsidized paid leave, etc. Still way cheaper than intermittent lockdown.)
-We then keep R < 1 until we have a vaccine, which turns susceptible
We then keep R < 1 until we have a vaccine, which turns susceptible
But for COVID-19 in humans, as of May 1st 2020, "how long" is the big unknown.
For these simulations, let's say it's 1 year.
-Here's a simulation starting with 100%
Oh.
-Counterintuitively, summer makes the spikes worse and regular! This is because summer reduces new
Counterintuitively, summer makes the spikes worse and regular! This is because summer reduces new
Thankfully, the solution to this is pretty straightforward – just vaccinate people every fall/winter, like we do with flu shots:
diff --git a/words/words.md b/words/words.md index 691356b..d5ba3aa 100644 --- a/words/words.md +++ b/words/words.md @@ -59,7 +59,7 @@ It's estimated that, *at the start* of a COVID-19 outbreak, the virus jumps from [^serial_interval]: “The mean [serial] interval was 3.96 days (95% CI 3.53–4.39 days)”. [Du Z, Xu X, Wu Y, Wang L, Cowling BJ, Ancel Meyers L](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0357_article) (Disclaimer: Early release articles are not considered as final versions) -If we simulate "double every 4 days" *and nothing else*, on a population starting with just 0.001%