Scenario 0: Do Absolutely Nothing
-Roughly around 1 in 20 people infected with COVID-19 need to go to an ICU (Intensive Care Unit).13 In a rich country like the USA, there's 1 ICU bed per 3400 people.14 Therefore, the USA can handle 20 out of 3400 people being simultaneously infected – or, 0.6% of the population.
+Roughly 1 in 20 people infected with COVID-19 need to go to an ICU (Intensive Care Unit).13 In a rich country like the USA, there's 1 ICU bed per 3400 people.14 Therefore, the USA can handle 20 out of 3400 people being simultaneously infected – or, 0.6% of the population.
Even if we more than tripled that capacity to 2%, here's what would've happened if we did absolutely nothing:
@@ -474,6 +475,8 @@You're right. Masks don't stop you from getting sick31... they stop you from getting others sick.
+But wait – how can a simple piece of fabric block droplets in one direction, but not the other? The answer's counter-intuitive, yet simple:
+
To put a number on it: surgical masks on the infectious person reduce cold & flu viruses in aerosols by 70%.32 Reducing transmissions by 70% would be as large an impact as a lockdown!
@@ -745,7 +748,7 @@[UPDATED MAY 15] Many of you rightly pointed out that our previous citation for "1 in 20 need hospitalization" was based off old USA data on confirmed cases – which was way lower than the real number of cases, due to lack of tests. ↩
-So, let's look at the country with the most tests per capita: Iceland. As of May 15th, 2020, they had 115 hospitalized among 1802 confirmed cases ≈ 6.4% hospitalization rate, or 1 in 16.
+So, let's look at the country with the most tests per capita: Iceland. On May 15th, 2020, they had 115 hospitalized among 1802 confirmed cases ≈ 6.4% hospitalization rate, or 1 in 16.
A more recent study of COVID-19 in France – using not just official confirmed cases but also antibody test data – found that “3.6% of infected individuals are hospitalized”. Or, 1 in 28.
diff --git a/pics/masks.png b/pics/masks.png index 7b441b5..b76eaa7 100644 Binary files a/pics/masks.png and b/pics/masks.png differ diff --git a/words/words.html b/words/words.html index 25633c8..2d56c77 100644 --- a/words/words.html +++ b/words/words.html @@ -223,7 +223,7 @@ the second-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:Scenario 0: Do Absolutely Nothing
-Roughly around 1 in 20 people infected with COVID-19 need to go to an ICU (Intensive Care Unit).13 In a rich country like the USA, there's 1 ICU bed per 3400 people.14 Therefore, the USA can handle 20 out of 3400 people being simultaneously infected – or, 0.6% of the population.
+Roughly 1 in 20 people infected with COVID-19 need to go to an ICU (Intensive Care Unit).13 In a rich country like the USA, there's 1 ICU bed per 3400 people.14 Therefore, the USA can handle 20 out of 3400 people being simultaneously infected – or, 0.6% of the population.
Even if we more than tripled that capacity to 2%, here's what would've happened if we did absolutely nothing:
@@ -411,6 +411,8 @@ the second-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:You're right. Masks don't stop you from getting sick31... they stop you from getting others sick.
+But wait – how can a simple piece of fabric block droplets in one direction, but not the other? The answer's counter-intuitive, yet simple:
+
To put a number on it: surgical masks on the infectious person reduce cold & flu viruses in aerosols by 70%.32 Reducing transmissions by 70% would be as large an impact as a lockdown!
@@ -682,7 +684,7 @@ the second-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:[UPDATED MAY 15] Many of you rightly pointed out that our previous citation for "1 in 20 need hospitalization" was based off old USA data on confirmed cases – which was way lower than the real number of cases, due to lack of tests. ↩
-So, let's look at the country with the most tests per capita: Iceland. As of May 15th, 2020, they had 115 hospitalized among 1802 confirmed cases ≈ 6.4% hospitalization rate, or 1 in 16.
+So, let's look at the country with the most tests per capita: Iceland. On May 15th, 2020, they had 115 hospitalized among 1802 confirmed cases ≈ 6.4% hospitalization rate, or 1 in 16.
A more recent study of COVID-19 in France – using not just official confirmed cases but also antibody test data – found that “3.6% of infected individuals are hospitalized”. Or, 1 in 28.
diff --git a/words/words.md b/words/words.md index f2b5c35..d817e67 100644 --- a/words/words.md +++ b/words/words.md @@ -249,11 +249,11 @@ Brace yourselves for an emergency landing... ###Scenario 0: Do Absolutely Nothing -*Roughly* around 1 in 20 people infected with COVID-19 need to go to an ICU (Intensive Care Unit).[^icu_covid] In a rich country like the USA, there's 1 ICU bed per 3400 people.[^icu_us] Therefore, the USA can handle 20 out of 3400 people being *simultaneously* infected – or, 0.6% of the population. +*Roughly* 1 in 20 people infected with COVID-19 need to go to an ICU (Intensive Care Unit).[^icu_covid] In a rich country like the USA, there's 1 ICU bed per 3400 people.[^icu_us] Therefore, the USA can handle 20 out of 3400 people being *simultaneously* infected – or, 0.6% of the population. [^icu_covid]: **[UPDATED MAY 15]** Many of you rightly pointed out that our previous citation for "**1 in 20** need hospitalization" was based off old USA data on *confirmed* cases – which was way lower than the *real* number of cases, due to lack of tests. - So, let's look at the country with the *most* tests per capita: Iceland. As of May 15th, 2020, they had 115 hospitalized among 1802 confirmed cases ≈ 6.4% hospitalization rate, or **1 in 16**. + So, let's look at the country with the *most* tests per capita: Iceland. [On May 15th, 2020](https://web.archive.org/web/20200516012656/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Iceland), they had 115 hospitalized among 1802 confirmed cases ≈ 6.4% hospitalization rate, or **1 in 16**. [A more recent study of COVID-19 in France](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/12/science.abc3517) – using not just official confirmed cases but also antibody test data – found that “3.6% of infected individuals are hospitalized”. Or, **1 in 28.** @@ -506,6 +506,8 @@ You're right. Masks don't stop you from getting sick[^incoming]... they stop you [^homemade]: [Davies, A., Thompson, K., Giri, K., Kafatos, G., Walker, J., & Bennett, A](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/disaster-medicine-and-public-health-preparedness/article/testing-the-efficacy-of-homemade-masks-would-they-protect-in-an-influenza-pandemic/0921A05A69A9419C862FA2F35F819D55) See Table 1: a 100% cotton T-shirt has around 2/3 the filtration efficiency as a surgical mask, for the two bacterial aerosols they tested. +But wait – how can a simple piece of fabric block droplets in one direction, *but not the other?* The answer's counter-intuitive, yet simple: +  To put a number on it: surgical masks *on the infectious person* reduce cold & flu viruses in aerosols by 70%.[^outgoing] Reducing transmissions by 70% would be as large an impact as a lockdown!