From b493aa2822d60fb5672020d88aab5e9c10b14908 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Maxim Lebedev Date: Wed, 6 May 2020 18:11:38 +0500 Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?=D0=98=D1=81=D0=BF=D1=80=D0=B0=D0=B2=D0=BB?= =?UTF-8?q?=D1=8F=D0=B5=D1=82=20=D0=BD=D0=B5=D0=BA=D0=BE=D1=80=D1=80=D0=B5?= =?UTF-8?q?=D0=BA=D1=82=D0=BD=D1=8B=D0=B9=20=D0=BF=D0=B0=D1=80=D1=81=D0=B8?= =?UTF-8?q?=D0=BD=D0=B3=20=D1=81=D0=BD=D0=BE=D1=81=D0=BE=D0=BA=20=D1=81=20?= =?UTF-8?q?=D0=BF=D1=80=D0=BE=D0=B1=D0=B5=D0=BB=D0=B0=D0=BC=D0=B8=20=D0=B2?= =?UTF-8?q?=20=D0=B8=D1=85=20=D0=B8=D0=B4=D0=B5=D0=BD=D1=82=D0=B8=D1=84?= =?UTF-8?q?=D0=B8=D0=BA=D0=B0=D1=82=D0=BE=D1=80=D0=B0=D1=85?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit --- index.html | 26 +++++++++++++------------- words/words.html | 26 +++++++++++++------------- words/words.md | 8 ++++---- 3 files changed, 30 insertions(+), 30 deletions(-) diff --git a/index.html b/index.html index 21619c1..0291267 100644 --- a/index.html +++ b/index.html @@ -358,14 +358,12 @@

You get COVID-19, and recover. Or you get the COVID-19 vaccine. Either way, you're now immune...

...for how long?

But for COVID-19 in humans, as of May 1st 2020, "how long" is the big unknown.

-

[^SARS immunity]: “SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years [...] Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection ≥3 years after initial exposure.” Wu LP, Wang NC, Chang YH, et al. "Sadly" we'll never know how long SARS immunity would have really lasted, since we eradicated it so quickly.

-

[^cold immunity]: “We found no significant difference between the probability of testing positive at least once and the probability of a recurrence for the beta-coronaviruses HKU1 and OC43 at 34 weeks after enrollment/first infection.” Marta Galanti & Jeffrey Shaman (PDF)

For these simulations, let's say it's 1 year. Here's a simulation starting with 100% , exponentially decaying into susceptible, no-immunity s after 1 year, on average, with variation:

@@ -393,7 +391,7 @@

But here's the scarier question:

What if there's no vaccine for years? Or ever?

To be clear: this is unlikely. Most epidemiologists expect a vaccine in 1 to 2 years. Sure, there's never been a vaccine for any of the other coronaviruses before, but that's because SARS was eradicated quickly, and "the" common cold wasn't worth the investment.

-

Still, infectious disease researchers have expressed worries: What if we can't make enough?40 What if we rush it, and it's not safe?41

+

Still, infectious disease researchers have expressed worries: What if we can't make enough?42 What if we rush it, and it's not safe?43

Even in the nightmare "no-vaccine" scenario, we still have 3 ways out. From most to least terrible:

1) Do intermittent or loose R < 1 interventions, to reach "natural herd immunity". (Warning: this will result in many deaths & damaged lungs. And won't work if immunity doesn't last.)

2) Do the R < 1 interventions forever. Contact tracing & wearing masks just becomes a new norm in the post-COVID-19 world, like how STI tests & wearing condoms became a new norm in the post-HIV world.

@@ -417,7 +415,7 @@
The Now
-

Plane's sunk. We've scrambled onto the life rafts. It's time to find dry land.42

+

Plane's sunk. We've scrambled onto the life rafts. It's time to find dry land.44

Teams of epidemiologists and policymakers (left, right, and multi-partisan) have come to a consensus on how to beat COVID-19, while protecting our lives and liberties.

Here's the rough idea, with some (less-consensus) backup plans:

@@ -488,11 +486,13 @@

  • "We need to save supplies for hospitals." Absolutely agreed. But that's more of an argument for increasing mask production, not rationing. In the meantime, we can make cloth masks.↩︎

  • “One-degree Celsius increase in temperature [...] lower[s] R by 0.0225” and “The average R-value of these 100 cities is 1.83”. 0.0225 ÷ 1.83 = ~1.2%. Wang, Jingyuan and Tang, Ke and Feng, Kai and Lv, Weifeng↩︎

  • In 2019 at Central Park, hottest month (July) was 79.6°F, coldest month (Jan) was 32.5°F. Difference is 47.1°F, or ~26°C. PDF from Weather.gov↩︎

    • -

  • “Once a person fights off a virus, viral particles tend to linger for some time. These cannot cause infections, but they can trigger a positive test.” from STAT News by Andrew Joseph↩︎

    • -

  • From Bao et al. Disclaimer: This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review (yet). Also, to emphasize: they only tested re-infection 28 days later.↩︎

    • -

  • “If a coronavirus vaccine arrives, can the world make enough?” by Roxanne Khamsi, on Nature↩︎

    • -

  • “Don’t rush to deploy COVID-19 vaccines and drugs without sufficient safety guarantees” by Shibo Jiang, on Nature↩︎

    • -

  • Dry land metaphor from Marc Lipsitch & Yonatan Grad, on STAT News↩︎

    • +

  • “SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years [...] Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection ≥3 years after initial exposure.” Wu LP, Wang NC, Chang YH, et al. "Sadly" we'll never know how long SARS immunity would have really lasted, since we eradicated it so quickly.↩︎

    • +

  • “We found no significant difference between the probability of testing positive at least once and the probability of a recurrence for the beta-coronaviruses HKU1 and OC43 at 34 weeks after enrollment/first infection.” Marta Galanti & Jeffrey Shaman (PDF)↩︎

    • +

  • “Once a person fights off a virus, viral particles tend to linger for some time. These cannot cause infections, but they can trigger a positive test.” from STAT News by Andrew Joseph↩︎

    • +

  • From Bao et al. Disclaimer: This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review (yet). Also, to emphasize: they only tested re-infection 28 days later.↩︎

    • +

  • “If a coronavirus vaccine arrives, can the world make enough?” by Roxanne Khamsi, on Nature↩︎

    • +

  • “Don’t rush to deploy COVID-19 vaccines and drugs without sufficient safety guarantees” by Shibo Jiang, on Nature↩︎

    • +

  • Dry land metaphor from Marc Lipsitch & Yonatan Grad, on STAT News↩︎

    • diff --git a/words/words.html b/words/words.html index 34a49b1..8da29a9 100644 --- a/words/words.html +++ b/words/words.html @@ -293,14 +293,12 @@

    You get COVID-19, and recover. Or you get the COVID-19 vaccine. Either way, you're now immune...

    ...for how long?

    But for COVID-19 in humans, as of May 1st 2020, "how long" is the big unknown.

    -

    [^SARS immunity]: “SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years [...] Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection ≥3 years after initial exposure.” Wu LP, Wang NC, Chang YH, et al. "Sadly" we'll never know how long SARS immunity would have really lasted, since we eradicated it so quickly.

    -

    [^cold immunity]: “We found no significant difference between the probability of testing positive at least once and the probability of a recurrence for the beta-coronaviruses HKU1 and OC43 at 34 weeks after enrollment/first infection.” Marta Galanti & Jeffrey Shaman (PDF)

    For these simulations, let's say it's 1 year. Here's a simulation starting with 100% , exponentially decaying into susceptible, no-immunity s after 1 year, on average, with variation:

    @@ -328,7 +326,7 @@

    But here's the scarier question:

    What if there's no vaccine for years? Or ever?

    To be clear: this is unlikely. Most epidemiologists expect a vaccine in 1 to 2 years. Sure, there's never been a vaccine for any of the other coronaviruses before, but that's because SARS was eradicated quickly, and "the" common cold wasn't worth the investment.

    -

    Still, infectious disease researchers have expressed worries: What if we can't make enough?40 What if we rush it, and it's not safe?41

    +

    Still, infectious disease researchers have expressed worries: What if we can't make enough?42 What if we rush it, and it's not safe?43

    Even in the nightmare "no-vaccine" scenario, we still have 3 ways out. From most to least terrible:

    1) Do intermittent or loose R < 1 interventions, to reach "natural herd immunity". (Warning: this will result in many deaths & damaged lungs. And won't work if immunity doesn't last.)

    2) Do the R < 1 interventions forever. Contact tracing & wearing masks just becomes a new norm in the post-COVID-19 world, like how STI tests & wearing condoms became a new norm in the post-HIV world.

    @@ -352,7 +350,7 @@
    The Now
    -

    Plane's sunk. We've scrambled onto the life rafts. It's time to find dry land.42

    +

    Plane's sunk. We've scrambled onto the life rafts. It's time to find dry land.44

    Teams of epidemiologists and policymakers (left, right, and multi-partisan) have come to a consensus on how to beat COVID-19, while protecting our lives and liberties.

    Here's the rough idea, with some (less-consensus) backup plans:

    @@ -423,10 +421,12 @@

  • "We need to save supplies for hospitals." Absolutely agreed. But that's more of an argument for increasing mask production, not rationing. In the meantime, we can make cloth masks.↩︎

  • “One-degree Celsius increase in temperature [...] lower[s] R by 0.0225” and “The average R-value of these 100 cities is 1.83”. 0.0225 ÷ 1.83 = ~1.2%. Wang, Jingyuan and Tang, Ke and Feng, Kai and Lv, Weifeng↩︎

  • In 2019 at Central Park, hottest month (July) was 79.6°F, coldest month (Jan) was 32.5°F. Difference is 47.1°F, or ~26°C. PDF from Weather.gov↩︎

    • -

  • “Once a person fights off a virus, viral particles tend to linger for some time. These cannot cause infections, but they can trigger a positive test.” from STAT News by Andrew Joseph↩︎

    • -

  • From Bao et al. Disclaimer: This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review (yet). Also, to emphasize: they only tested re-infection 28 days later.↩︎

    • -

  • “If a coronavirus vaccine arrives, can the world make enough?” by Roxanne Khamsi, on Nature↩︎

    • -

  • “Don’t rush to deploy COVID-19 vaccines and drugs without sufficient safety guarantees” by Shibo Jiang, on Nature↩︎

    • -

  • Dry land metaphor from Marc Lipsitch & Yonatan Grad, on STAT News↩︎

    • +

  • “SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years [...] Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection ≥3 years after initial exposure.” Wu LP, Wang NC, Chang YH, et al. "Sadly" we'll never know how long SARS immunity would have really lasted, since we eradicated it so quickly.↩︎

    • +

  • “We found no significant difference between the probability of testing positive at least once and the probability of a recurrence for the beta-coronaviruses HKU1 and OC43 at 34 weeks after enrollment/first infection.” Marta Galanti & Jeffrey Shaman (PDF)↩︎

    • +

  • “Once a person fights off a virus, viral particles tend to linger for some time. These cannot cause infections, but they can trigger a positive test.” from STAT News by Andrew Joseph↩︎

    • +

  • From Bao et al. Disclaimer: This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review (yet). Also, to emphasize: they only tested re-infection 28 days later.↩︎

    • +

  • “If a coronavirus vaccine arrives, can the world make enough?” by Roxanne Khamsi, on Nature↩︎

    • +

  • “Don’t rush to deploy COVID-19 vaccines and drugs without sufficient safety guarantees” by Shibo Jiang, on Nature↩︎

    • +

  • Dry land metaphor from Marc Lipsitch & Yonatan Grad, on STAT News↩︎

    • diff --git a/words/words.md b/words/words.md index 8e40374..9786d78 100644 --- a/words/words.md +++ b/words/words.md @@ -598,16 +598,16 @@ You get COVID-19, and recover. Or you get the COVID-19 vaccine. Either way, you' ...*for how long?* -* COVID-19 is most closely related to SARS, which gave its survivors 2 years of immunity.[^SARS immunity] -* The coronaviruses that cause "the" common cold give you 8 months of immunity.[^cold immunity] +* COVID-19 is most closely related to SARS, which gave its survivors 2 years of immunity.[^SARS_immunity] +* The coronaviruses that cause "the" common cold give you 8 months of immunity.[^cold_immunity] * There's reports of folks recovering from COVID-19, then testing positive again, but it's unclear if these are false positives.[^unclear] * One *not-yet-peer-reviewed* study on monkeys showed immunity to the COVID-19 coronavirus for at least 28 days.[^monkeys] But for COVID-19 *in humans*, as of May 1st 2020, "how long" is the big unknown. -[^SARS immunity]: “SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years [...] Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection ≥3 years after initial exposure.” [Wu LP, Wang NC, Chang YH, et al.](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/) "Sadly" we'll never know how long SARS immunity would have really lasted, since we eradicated it so quickly. +[^SARS_immunity]: “SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years \[...\] Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection ≥3 years after initial exposure.” [Wu LP, Wang NC, Chang YH, et al.](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/) "Sadly" we'll never know how long SARS immunity would have really lasted, since we eradicated it so quickly. -[^cold immunity]: “We found no significant difference between the probability of testing positive at least once and the probability of a recurrence for the beta-coronaviruses HKU1 and OC43 at 34 weeks after enrollment/first infection.” [Marta Galanti & Jeffrey Shaman (PDF)](http://www.columbia.edu/~jls106/galanti_shaman_ms_supp.pdf) +[^cold_immunity]: “We found no significant difference between the probability of testing positive at least once and the probability of a recurrence for the beta-coronaviruses HKU1 and OC43 at 34 weeks after enrollment/first infection.” [Marta Galanti & Jeffrey Shaman (PDF)](http://www.columbia.edu/~jls106/galanti_shaman_ms_supp.pdf) [^unclear]: “Once a person fights off a virus, viral particles tend to linger for some time. These cannot cause infections, but they can trigger a positive test.” [from STAT News by Andrew Joseph](https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/20/everything-we-know-about-coronavirus-immunity-and-antibodies-and-plenty-we-still-dont/)