diff --git a/index.html b/index.html index 21619c1..0291267 100644 --- a/index.html +++ b/index.html @@ -358,14 +358,12 @@
You get COVID-19, and recover. Or you get the COVID-19 vaccine. Either way, you're now immune...
...for how long?
But for COVID-19 in humans, as of May 1st 2020, "how long" is the big unknown.
-[^SARS immunity]: “SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years [...] Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection ≥3 years after initial exposure.” Wu LP, Wang NC, Chang YH, et al. "Sadly" we'll never know how long SARS immunity would have really lasted, since we eradicated it so quickly.
-[^cold immunity]: “We found no significant difference between the probability of testing positive at least once and the probability of a recurrence for the beta-coronaviruses HKU1 and OC43 at 34 weeks after enrollment/first infection.” Marta Galanti & Jeffrey Shaman (PDF)
For these simulations, let's say it's 1 year. Here's a simulation starting with 100%
But here's the scarier question:
What if there's no vaccine for years? Or ever?
To be clear: this is unlikely. Most epidemiologists expect a vaccine in 1 to 2 years. Sure, there's never been a vaccine for any of the other coronaviruses before, but that's because SARS was eradicated quickly, and "the" common cold wasn't worth the investment.
-Still, infectious disease researchers have expressed worries: What if we can't make enough?40 What if we rush it, and it's not safe?41
+Still, infectious disease researchers have expressed worries: What if we can't make enough?42 What if we rush it, and it's not safe?43
Even in the nightmare "no-vaccine" scenario, we still have 3 ways out. From most to least terrible:
1) Do intermittent or loose R < 1 interventions, to reach "natural herd immunity". (Warning: this will result in many deaths & damaged lungs. And won't work if immunity doesn't last.)
2) Do the R < 1 interventions forever. Contact tracing & wearing masks just becomes a new norm in the post-COVID-19 world, like how STI tests & wearing condoms became a new norm in the post-HIV world.
@@ -417,7 +415,7 @@Plane's sunk. We've scrambled onto the life rafts. It's time to find dry land.42
+Plane's sunk. We've scrambled onto the life rafts. It's time to find dry land.44
Teams of epidemiologists and policymakers (left, right, and multi-partisan) have come to a consensus on how to beat COVID-19, while protecting our lives and liberties.
Here's the rough idea, with some (less-consensus) backup plans:
"We need to save supplies for hospitals." Absolutely agreed. But that's more of an argument for increasing mask production, not rationing. In the meantime, we can make cloth masks.↩︎
“One-degree Celsius increase in temperature [...] lower[s] R by 0.0225” and “The average R-value of these 100 cities is 1.83”. 0.0225 ÷ 1.83 = ~1.2%. Wang, Jingyuan and Tang, Ke and Feng, Kai and Lv, Weifeng↩︎
In 2019 at Central Park, hottest month (July) was 79.6°F, coldest month (Jan) was 32.5°F. Difference is 47.1°F, or ~26°C. PDF from Weather.gov↩︎
“Once a person fights off a virus, viral particles tend to linger for some time. These cannot cause infections, but they can trigger a positive test.” from STAT News by Andrew Joseph↩︎
From Bao et al. Disclaimer: This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review (yet). Also, to emphasize: they only tested re-infection 28 days later.↩︎
“If a coronavirus vaccine arrives, can the world make enough?” by Roxanne Khamsi, on Nature↩︎
“Don’t rush to deploy COVID-19 vaccines and drugs without sufficient safety guarantees” by Shibo Jiang, on Nature↩︎
Dry land metaphor from Marc Lipsitch & Yonatan Grad, on STAT News↩︎
“SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years [...] Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection ≥3 years after initial exposure.” Wu LP, Wang NC, Chang YH, et al. "Sadly" we'll never know how long SARS immunity would have really lasted, since we eradicated it so quickly.↩︎
“We found no significant difference between the probability of testing positive at least once and the probability of a recurrence for the beta-coronaviruses HKU1 and OC43 at 34 weeks after enrollment/first infection.” Marta Galanti & Jeffrey Shaman (PDF)↩︎
“Once a person fights off a virus, viral particles tend to linger for some time. These cannot cause infections, but they can trigger a positive test.” from STAT News by Andrew Joseph↩︎
From Bao et al. Disclaimer: This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review (yet). Also, to emphasize: they only tested re-infection 28 days later.↩︎
“If a coronavirus vaccine arrives, can the world make enough?” by Roxanne Khamsi, on Nature↩︎
“Don’t rush to deploy COVID-19 vaccines and drugs without sufficient safety guarantees” by Shibo Jiang, on Nature↩︎
Dry land metaphor from Marc Lipsitch & Yonatan Grad, on STAT News↩︎
You get COVID-19, and recover. Or you get the COVID-19 vaccine. Either way, you're now immune...
...for how long?
But for COVID-19 in humans, as of May 1st 2020, "how long" is the big unknown.
-[^SARS immunity]: “SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years [...] Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection ≥3 years after initial exposure.” Wu LP, Wang NC, Chang YH, et al. "Sadly" we'll never know how long SARS immunity would have really lasted, since we eradicated it so quickly.
-[^cold immunity]: “We found no significant difference between the probability of testing positive at least once and the probability of a recurrence for the beta-coronaviruses HKU1 and OC43 at 34 weeks after enrollment/first infection.” Marta Galanti & Jeffrey Shaman (PDF)
For these simulations, let's say it's 1 year. Here's a simulation starting with 100%
But here's the scarier question:
What if there's no vaccine for years? Or ever?
To be clear: this is unlikely. Most epidemiologists expect a vaccine in 1 to 2 years. Sure, there's never been a vaccine for any of the other coronaviruses before, but that's because SARS was eradicated quickly, and "the" common cold wasn't worth the investment.
-Still, infectious disease researchers have expressed worries: What if we can't make enough?40 What if we rush it, and it's not safe?41
+Still, infectious disease researchers have expressed worries: What if we can't make enough?42 What if we rush it, and it's not safe?43
Even in the nightmare "no-vaccine" scenario, we still have 3 ways out. From most to least terrible:
1) Do intermittent or loose R < 1 interventions, to reach "natural herd immunity". (Warning: this will result in many deaths & damaged lungs. And won't work if immunity doesn't last.)
2) Do the R < 1 interventions forever. Contact tracing & wearing masks just becomes a new norm in the post-COVID-19 world, like how STI tests & wearing condoms became a new norm in the post-HIV world.
@@ -352,7 +350,7 @@Plane's sunk. We've scrambled onto the life rafts. It's time to find dry land.42
+Plane's sunk. We've scrambled onto the life rafts. It's time to find dry land.44
Teams of epidemiologists and policymakers (left, right, and multi-partisan) have come to a consensus on how to beat COVID-19, while protecting our lives and liberties.
Here's the rough idea, with some (less-consensus) backup plans:
"We need to save supplies for hospitals." Absolutely agreed. But that's more of an argument for increasing mask production, not rationing. In the meantime, we can make cloth masks.↩︎
“One-degree Celsius increase in temperature [...] lower[s] R by 0.0225” and “The average R-value of these 100 cities is 1.83”. 0.0225 ÷ 1.83 = ~1.2%. Wang, Jingyuan and Tang, Ke and Feng, Kai and Lv, Weifeng↩︎
In 2019 at Central Park, hottest month (July) was 79.6°F, coldest month (Jan) was 32.5°F. Difference is 47.1°F, or ~26°C. PDF from Weather.gov↩︎
“Once a person fights off a virus, viral particles tend to linger for some time. These cannot cause infections, but they can trigger a positive test.” from STAT News by Andrew Joseph↩︎
From Bao et al. Disclaimer: This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review (yet). Also, to emphasize: they only tested re-infection 28 days later.↩︎
“If a coronavirus vaccine arrives, can the world make enough?” by Roxanne Khamsi, on Nature↩︎
“Don’t rush to deploy COVID-19 vaccines and drugs without sufficient safety guarantees” by Shibo Jiang, on Nature↩︎
Dry land metaphor from Marc Lipsitch & Yonatan Grad, on STAT News↩︎
“SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years [...] Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection ≥3 years after initial exposure.” Wu LP, Wang NC, Chang YH, et al. "Sadly" we'll never know how long SARS immunity would have really lasted, since we eradicated it so quickly.↩︎
“We found no significant difference between the probability of testing positive at least once and the probability of a recurrence for the beta-coronaviruses HKU1 and OC43 at 34 weeks after enrollment/first infection.” Marta Galanti & Jeffrey Shaman (PDF)↩︎
“Once a person fights off a virus, viral particles tend to linger for some time. These cannot cause infections, but they can trigger a positive test.” from STAT News by Andrew Joseph↩︎
From Bao et al. Disclaimer: This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review (yet). Also, to emphasize: they only tested re-infection 28 days later.↩︎
“If a coronavirus vaccine arrives, can the world make enough?” by Roxanne Khamsi, on Nature↩︎
“Don’t rush to deploy COVID-19 vaccines and drugs without sufficient safety guarantees” by Shibo Jiang, on Nature↩︎
Dry land metaphor from Marc Lipsitch & Yonatan Grad, on STAT News↩︎