diff --git a/banners/promo.png b/banners/promo.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..af8138e Binary files /dev/null and b/banners/promo.png differ diff --git a/index.html b/index.html index 5c12433..d420ccf 100644 --- a/index.html +++ b/index.html @@ -358,7 +358,7 @@

Mental Health: Loneliness is one of the biggest risk factors for depression, anxiety, and suicide. And it's as associated with an early death as smoking 15 cigarettes a day.20

-

Financial Health: "What about the economy" sounds like you care more about dollars than lives, but "the economy" isn't just stocks: it's people's ability to provide food & shelter for their loved ones, to invest in their kids' futures, and enjoy arts, foods, videogames – the stuff makes life worth living. And besides, poverty itself has horrible impacts on mental and physical health.

+

Financial Health: "What about the economy" sounds like you care more about dollars than lives, but "the economy" isn't just stocks: it's people's ability to provide food & shelter for their loved ones, to invest in their kids' futures, and enjoy arts, foods, videogames – the stuff that makes life worth living. And besides, poverty itself has horrible impacts on mental and physical health.

Not saying we shouldn't lock down again! We'll look at "circuit breaker" lockdowns later. Still, it's not ideal.

@@ -469,11 +469,9 @@

However, pandemics are like poker. Make bets only when you're 95% sure, and you'll lose everything at stake. As a recent article on masks in the British Medical Journal notes,32 we have to make cost/benefit analyses under uncertainty. Like so:

-

Cost: If homemade cloth masks, same as the cost of all that soap for handwashing. If surgical masks, more expensive but still pretty cheap.

+

Cost: If homemade cloth masks (which are ~2/3 as effective as surgical masks33), super cheap. If surgical masks, more expensive but still pretty cheap.

-

Benefit: Even if it's a 50–50 chance of surgical masks reducing transmission by 0% or 70%, the average "expected value" is still 35%, same as a half-lockdown! So let's guess-timate that surgical masks reduce R by up to 35%. (Again, you can challenge our assumptions by turning the sliders up/down)

- -

Here's a calculator of how masks reduce R! You can switch between cloth & surgical: (assumes cloth masks are 2/3 as effective as surgical masks33)

+

Benefit: Even if it's a 50–50 chance of surgical masks reducing transmission by 0% or 70%, the average "expected value" is still 35%, same as a half-lockdown! So let's guess-timate that surgical masks reduce R by up to 35%, discounted for our uncertainty. (Again, you can challenge our assumptions by turning the sliders up/down)

@@ -481,7 +479,7 @@

(other arguments for/against masks:34)

-

Masks alone won't get R < 1. But if handwashing & "Test, Trace, Isolate" only gets us to R = 1.10, having just 2/3 of people wear cloth masks would tip that over to R < 1, virus contained!

+

Masks alone won't get R < 1. But if handwashing & "Test, Trace, Isolate" only gets us to R = 1.10, having just 1/3 of people wear masks would tip that over to R < 1, virus contained!

Summer:

@@ -505,7 +503,7 @@
  1. Lockdown, then
    2. -
  2. A moderate amount of hygiene + "Test, Trace, Isolate" + cloth "Masks For All", then...
    3. +
  3. A moderate amount of hygiene & "Test, Trace, Isolate", with a mild amount of "Masks For All", then...
  4. One more "circuit breaker" lockdown before a vaccine's found.
@@ -874,6 +872,7 @@
+ diff --git a/sim/js/Model.js b/sim/js/Model.js index 51e0bd5..72d4c1f 100644 --- a/sim/js/Model.js +++ b/sim/js/Model.js @@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ let interventionStrengths = [ ['distancing', 0.7], ['isolate', 0.4], ['quarantine', 0.5], - ['masks', 0.35*0.5], // 3.4 fold reduction (70%) (what CI?), subtract points for... improper usage? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3591312/ // cloth masks... + ['masks', 0.35], // 3.4 fold reduction (70%) (what CI?), subtract points for... improper usage? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3591312/ // cloth masks... ['summer', 0.4] // 15°C diff * 0.0225 (Wang et al) ]; diff --git a/sim/js/Stages.js b/sim/js/Stages.js index 90b4a52..88d9b6c 100644 --- a/sim/js/Stages.js +++ b/sim/js/Stages.js @@ -504,7 +504,7 @@ const STAGES = { ["p_hygiene",0.66,84], ["p_quarantine",0.4,175], ["p_isolate",0.4,175], - ["p_masks",0.4,175], + ["p_masks",0.2,175], // Circuit Breaker ["p_distancing",1,365], diff --git a/words/words.html b/words/words.html index 9e2151b..396aa37 100644 --- a/words/words.html +++ b/words/words.html @@ -308,7 +308,7 @@ the second-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:

Mental Health: Loneliness is one of the biggest risk factors for depression, anxiety, and suicide. And it's as associated with an early death as smoking 15 cigarettes a day.20

-

Financial Health: "What about the economy" sounds like you care more about dollars than lives, but "the economy" isn't just stocks: it's people's ability to provide food & shelter for their loved ones, to invest in their kids' futures, and enjoy arts, foods, videogames – the stuff makes life worth living. And besides, poverty itself has horrible impacts on mental and physical health.

+

Financial Health: "What about the economy" sounds like you care more about dollars than lives, but "the economy" isn't just stocks: it's people's ability to provide food & shelter for their loved ones, to invest in their kids' futures, and enjoy arts, foods, videogames – the stuff that makes life worth living. And besides, poverty itself has horrible impacts on mental and physical health.

Not saying we shouldn't lock down again! We'll look at "circuit breaker" lockdowns later. Still, it's not ideal.

@@ -419,11 +419,9 @@ the second-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:

However, pandemics are like poker. Make bets only when you're 95% sure, and you'll lose everything at stake. As a recent article on masks in the British Medical Journal notes,32 we have to make cost/benefit analyses under uncertainty. Like so:

-

Cost: If homemade cloth masks, same as the cost of all that soap for handwashing. If surgical masks, more expensive but still pretty cheap.

+

Cost: If homemade cloth masks (which are ~2/3 as effective as surgical masks33), super cheap. If surgical masks, more expensive but still pretty cheap.

-

Benefit: Even if it's a 50–50 chance of surgical masks reducing transmission by 0% or 70%, the average "expected value" is still 35%, same as a half-lockdown! So let's guess-timate that surgical masks reduce R by up to 35%. (Again, you can challenge our assumptions by turning the sliders up/down)

- -

Here's a calculator of how masks reduce R! You can switch between cloth & surgical: (assumes cloth masks are 2/3 as effective as surgical masks33)

+

Benefit: Even if it's a 50–50 chance of surgical masks reducing transmission by 0% or 70%, the average "expected value" is still 35%, same as a half-lockdown! So let's guess-timate that surgical masks reduce R by up to 35%, discounted for our uncertainty. (Again, you can challenge our assumptions by turning the sliders up/down)

@@ -431,7 +429,7 @@ the second-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:

(other arguments for/against masks:34)

-

Masks alone won't get R < 1. But if handwashing & "Test, Trace, Isolate" only gets us to R = 1.10, having just 2/3 of people wear cloth masks would tip that over to R < 1, virus contained!

+

Masks alone won't get R < 1. But if handwashing & "Test, Trace, Isolate" only gets us to R = 1.10, having just 1/3 of people wear masks would tip that over to R < 1, virus contained!

Summer:

@@ -455,7 +453,7 @@ the second-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:

  1. Lockdown, then
    2. -
  2. A moderate amount of hygiene + "Test, Trace, Isolate" + cloth "Masks For All", then...
    3. +
  3. A moderate amount of hygiene & "Test, Trace, Isolate", with a mild amount of "Masks For All", then...
  4. One more "circuit breaker" lockdown before a vaccine's found.
diff --git a/words/words.md b/words/words.md index 289e3db..691356b 100644 --- a/words/words.md +++ b/words/words.md @@ -350,7 +350,7 @@ Look, it's nice to draw a line saying "ICU capacity", but there's lots of import [^loneliness]: See [Figure 6 from Holt-Lunstad & Smith 2010](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1745691614568352). Of course, big disclaimer that they found a *correlation*. But unless you want to try randomly assigning people to be lonely for life, observational evidence is all you're gonna get. -**Financial Health:** "What about the economy" sounds like you care more about dollars than lives, but "the economy" isn't just stocks: it's people's ability to provide food & shelter for their loved ones, to invest in their kids' futures, and enjoy arts, foods, videogames – the stuff makes life worth living. And besides, poverty *itself* has horrible impacts on mental and physical health. +**Financial Health:** "What about the economy" sounds like you care more about dollars than lives, but "the economy" isn't just stocks: it's people's ability to provide food & shelter for their loved ones, to invest in their kids' futures, and enjoy arts, foods, videogames – the stuff that makes life worth living. And besides, poverty *itself* has horrible impacts on mental and physical health. Not saying we *shouldn't* lock down again! We'll look at "circuit breaker" lockdowns later. Still, it's not ideal. @@ -500,11 +500,9 @@ However, pandemics are like poker. **Make bets only when you're 95% sure, and yo [^precautionary]: “It is time to apply the precautionary principle” [Trisha Greenhalgh et al \[PDF\]](https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/369/bmj.m1435.full.pdf) -Cost: If homemade cloth masks, same as the cost of all that soap for handwashing. If surgical masks, more expensive but still pretty cheap. +Cost: If homemade cloth masks (which are ~2/3 as effective as surgical masks[^homemade]), super cheap. If surgical masks, more expensive but still pretty cheap. -Benefit: Even if it's a 50–50 chance of surgical masks reducing transmission by 0% or 70%, the average "expected value" is still 35%, same as a half-lockdown! So let's guess-timate that surgical masks reduce R by up to 35%. (Again, you can challenge our assumptions by turning the sliders up/down) - -**Here's a calculator of how masks reduce R! You can switch between cloth & surgical:** (assumes cloth masks are 2/3 as effective as surgical masks[^homemade]) +Benefit: Even if it's a 50–50 chance of surgical masks reducing transmission by 0% or 70%, the average "expected value" is still 35%, same as a half-lockdown! So let's guess-timate that surgical masks reduce R by up to 35%, discounted for our uncertainty. (Again, you can challenge our assumptions by turning the sliders up/down)
@@ -520,7 +518,7 @@ Benefit: Even if it's a 50–50 chance of surgical masks reducing transmission b -Masks *alone* won't get R < 1. But if handwashing & "Test, Trace, Isolate" only gets us to R = 1.10, having just 2/3 of people wear *cloth* masks would tip that over to R < 1, virus contained! +Masks *alone* won't get R < 1. But if handwashing & "Test, Trace, Isolate" only gets us to R = 1.10, having just 1/3 of people wear masks would tip that over to R < 1, virus contained! **Summer:** @@ -545,7 +543,7 @@ But we wouldn't have to be 2-months-closed / 1-month-open over & over! Because R Here's a simulation a "lazy case" scenario: 1. Lockdown, then -2. A moderate amount of hygiene + "Test, Trace, Isolate" + *cloth* "Masks For All", then... +2. A moderate amount of hygiene & "Test, Trace, Isolate", with a mild amount of "Masks For All", then... 3. One more "circuit breaker" lockdown before a vaccine's found.