typos and remove cloth/surgical mask whatever for now
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Nicky Case
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@ -358,7 +358,7 @@
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<p><strong>Mental Health:</strong> Loneliness is one of the biggest risk factors for depression, anxiety, and suicide. And it's as associated with an early death as smoking 15 cigarettes a day.<sup id="fnref20"><a href="#fn20" rel="footnote">20</a></sup></p>
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<p><strong>Financial Health:</strong> "What about the economy" sounds like you care more about dollars than lives, but "the economy" isn't just stocks: it's people's ability to provide food & shelter for their loved ones, to invest in their kids' futures, and enjoy arts, foods, videogames – the stuff makes life worth living. And besides, poverty <em>itself</em> has horrible impacts on mental and physical health.</p>
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<p><strong>Financial Health:</strong> "What about the economy" sounds like you care more about dollars than lives, but "the economy" isn't just stocks: it's people's ability to provide food & shelter for their loved ones, to invest in their kids' futures, and enjoy arts, foods, videogames – the stuff that makes life worth living. And besides, poverty <em>itself</em> has horrible impacts on mental and physical health.</p>
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<p>Not saying we <em>shouldn't</em> lock down again! We'll look at "circuit breaker" lockdowns later. Still, it's not ideal.</p>
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@ -469,11 +469,9 @@
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<p>However, pandemics are like poker. <strong>Make bets only when you're 95% sure, and you'll lose everything at stake.</strong> As a recent article on masks in the British Medical Journal notes,<sup id="fnref32"><a href="#fn32" rel="footnote">32</a></sup> we <em>have</em> to make cost/benefit analyses under uncertainty. Like so:</p>
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<p>Cost: If homemade cloth masks, same as the cost of all that soap for handwashing. If surgical masks, more expensive but still pretty cheap.</p>
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<p>Cost: If homemade cloth masks (which are ~2/3 as effective as surgical masks<sup id="fnref33"><a href="#fn33" rel="footnote">33</a></sup>), super cheap. If surgical masks, more expensive but still pretty cheap.</p>
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<p>Benefit: Even if it's a 50–50 chance of surgical masks reducing transmission by 0% or 70%, the average "expected value" is still 35%, same as a half-lockdown! So let's guess-timate that surgical masks reduce R by up to 35%. (Again, you can challenge our assumptions by turning the sliders up/down)</p>
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<p><strong>Here's a calculator of how masks reduce R! You can switch between cloth & surgical:</strong> (assumes cloth masks are 2/3 as effective as surgical masks<sup id="fnref33"><a href="#fn33" rel="footnote">33</a></sup>)</p>
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<p>Benefit: Even if it's a 50–50 chance of surgical masks reducing transmission by 0% or 70%, the average "expected value" is still 35%, same as a half-lockdown! So let's guess-timate that surgical masks reduce R by up to 35%, discounted for our uncertainty. (Again, you can challenge our assumptions by turning the sliders up/down)</p>
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<div class="sim">
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<iframe src="sim?stage=int-6a&format=calc" width="285" height="380"></iframe>
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@ -481,7 +479,7 @@
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<p>(other arguments for/against masks:<sup id="fnref34"><a href="#fn34" rel="footnote">34</a></sup>)</p>
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<p>Masks <em>alone</em> won't get R < 1. But if handwashing & "Test, Trace, Isolate" only gets us to R = 1.10, having just 2/3 of people wear <em>cloth</em> masks would tip that over to R < 1, virus contained!</p>
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<p>Masks <em>alone</em> won't get R < 1. But if handwashing & "Test, Trace, Isolate" only gets us to R = 1.10, having just 1/3 of people wear masks would tip that over to R < 1, virus contained!</p>
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<p><strong>Summer:</strong></p>
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@ -505,7 +503,7 @@
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<ol>
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<li>Lockdown, then</li>
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<li>A moderate amount of hygiene + "Test, Trace, Isolate" + <em>cloth</em> "Masks For All", then...</li>
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<li>A moderate amount of hygiene & "Test, Trace, Isolate", with a mild amount of "Masks For All", then...</li>
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<li>One more "circuit breaker" lockdown before a vaccine's found.</li>
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</ol>
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@ -874,6 +872,7 @@
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</ol>
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</div>
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</article>
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<!-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -->
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@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ let interventionStrengths = [
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['distancing', 0.7],
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['isolate', 0.4],
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['quarantine', 0.5],
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['masks', 0.35*0.5], // 3.4 fold reduction (70%) (what CI?), subtract points for... improper usage? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3591312/ // cloth masks...
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['masks', 0.35], // 3.4 fold reduction (70%) (what CI?), subtract points for... improper usage? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3591312/ // cloth masks...
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['summer', 0.4] // 15°C diff * 0.0225 (Wang et al)
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];
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@ -504,7 +504,7 @@ const STAGES = {
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["p_hygiene",0.66,84],
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["p_quarantine",0.4,175],
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["p_isolate",0.4,175],
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["p_masks",0.4,175],
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["p_masks",0.2,175],
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// Circuit Breaker
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["p_distancing",1,365],
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@ -308,7 +308,7 @@ the <em>second</em>-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:</p>
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<p><strong>Mental Health:</strong> Loneliness is one of the biggest risk factors for depression, anxiety, and suicide. And it's as associated with an early death as smoking 15 cigarettes a day.<sup id="fnref20"><a href="#fn20" rel="footnote">20</a></sup></p>
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<p><strong>Financial Health:</strong> "What about the economy" sounds like you care more about dollars than lives, but "the economy" isn't just stocks: it's people's ability to provide food & shelter for their loved ones, to invest in their kids' futures, and enjoy arts, foods, videogames – the stuff makes life worth living. And besides, poverty <em>itself</em> has horrible impacts on mental and physical health.</p>
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<p><strong>Financial Health:</strong> "What about the economy" sounds like you care more about dollars than lives, but "the economy" isn't just stocks: it's people's ability to provide food & shelter for their loved ones, to invest in their kids' futures, and enjoy arts, foods, videogames – the stuff that makes life worth living. And besides, poverty <em>itself</em> has horrible impacts on mental and physical health.</p>
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<p>Not saying we <em>shouldn't</em> lock down again! We'll look at "circuit breaker" lockdowns later. Still, it's not ideal.</p>
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@ -419,11 +419,9 @@ the <em>second</em>-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:</p>
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<p>However, pandemics are like poker. <strong>Make bets only when you're 95% sure, and you'll lose everything at stake.</strong> As a recent article on masks in the British Medical Journal notes,<sup id="fnref32"><a href="#fn32" rel="footnote">32</a></sup> we <em>have</em> to make cost/benefit analyses under uncertainty. Like so:</p>
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<p>Cost: If homemade cloth masks, same as the cost of all that soap for handwashing. If surgical masks, more expensive but still pretty cheap.</p>
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<p>Cost: If homemade cloth masks (which are ~2/3 as effective as surgical masks<sup id="fnref33"><a href="#fn33" rel="footnote">33</a></sup>), super cheap. If surgical masks, more expensive but still pretty cheap.</p>
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<p>Benefit: Even if it's a 50–50 chance of surgical masks reducing transmission by 0% or 70%, the average "expected value" is still 35%, same as a half-lockdown! So let's guess-timate that surgical masks reduce R by up to 35%. (Again, you can challenge our assumptions by turning the sliders up/down)</p>
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<p><strong>Here's a calculator of how masks reduce R! You can switch between cloth & surgical:</strong> (assumes cloth masks are 2/3 as effective as surgical masks<sup id="fnref33"><a href="#fn33" rel="footnote">33</a></sup>)</p>
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<p>Benefit: Even if it's a 50–50 chance of surgical masks reducing transmission by 0% or 70%, the average "expected value" is still 35%, same as a half-lockdown! So let's guess-timate that surgical masks reduce R by up to 35%, discounted for our uncertainty. (Again, you can challenge our assumptions by turning the sliders up/down)</p>
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<div class="sim">
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<iframe src="sim?stage=int-6a&format=calc" width="285" height="380"></iframe>
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@ -431,7 +429,7 @@ the <em>second</em>-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:</p>
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<p>(other arguments for/against masks:<sup id="fnref34"><a href="#fn34" rel="footnote">34</a></sup>)</p>
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<p>Masks <em>alone</em> won't get R < 1. But if handwashing & "Test, Trace, Isolate" only gets us to R = 1.10, having just 2/3 of people wear <em>cloth</em> masks would tip that over to R < 1, virus contained!</p>
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<p>Masks <em>alone</em> won't get R < 1. But if handwashing & "Test, Trace, Isolate" only gets us to R = 1.10, having just 1/3 of people wear masks would tip that over to R < 1, virus contained!</p>
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<p><strong>Summer:</strong></p>
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@ -455,7 +453,7 @@ the <em>second</em>-most important idea in Epidemiology 101:</p>
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<ol>
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<li>Lockdown, then</li>
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<li>A moderate amount of hygiene + "Test, Trace, Isolate" + <em>cloth</em> "Masks For All", then...</li>
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<li>A moderate amount of hygiene & "Test, Trace, Isolate", with a mild amount of "Masks For All", then...</li>
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<li>One more "circuit breaker" lockdown before a vaccine's found.</li>
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</ol>
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@ -350,7 +350,7 @@ Look, it's nice to draw a line saying "ICU capacity", but there's lots of import
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[^loneliness]: See [Figure 6 from Holt-Lunstad & Smith 2010](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1745691614568352). Of course, big disclaimer that they found a *correlation*. But unless you want to try randomly assigning people to be lonely for life, observational evidence is all you're gonna get.
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**Financial Health:** "What about the economy" sounds like you care more about dollars than lives, but "the economy" isn't just stocks: it's people's ability to provide food & shelter for their loved ones, to invest in their kids' futures, and enjoy arts, foods, videogames – the stuff makes life worth living. And besides, poverty *itself* has horrible impacts on mental and physical health.
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**Financial Health:** "What about the economy" sounds like you care more about dollars than lives, but "the economy" isn't just stocks: it's people's ability to provide food & shelter for their loved ones, to invest in their kids' futures, and enjoy arts, foods, videogames – the stuff that makes life worth living. And besides, poverty *itself* has horrible impacts on mental and physical health.
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Not saying we *shouldn't* lock down again! We'll look at "circuit breaker" lockdowns later. Still, it's not ideal.
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@ -500,11 +500,9 @@ However, pandemics are like poker. **Make bets only when you're 95% sure, and yo
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[^precautionary]: “It is time to apply the precautionary principle” [Trisha Greenhalgh et al \[PDF\]](https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/369/bmj.m1435.full.pdf)
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Cost: If homemade cloth masks, same as the cost of all that soap for handwashing. If surgical masks, more expensive but still pretty cheap.
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Cost: If homemade cloth masks (which are ~2/3 as effective as surgical masks[^homemade]), super cheap. If surgical masks, more expensive but still pretty cheap.
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Benefit: Even if it's a 50–50 chance of surgical masks reducing transmission by 0% or 70%, the average "expected value" is still 35%, same as a half-lockdown! So let's guess-timate that surgical masks reduce R by up to 35%. (Again, you can challenge our assumptions by turning the sliders up/down)
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**Here's a calculator of how masks reduce R! You can switch between cloth & surgical:** (assumes cloth masks are 2/3 as effective as surgical masks[^homemade])
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Benefit: Even if it's a 50–50 chance of surgical masks reducing transmission by 0% or 70%, the average "expected value" is still 35%, same as a half-lockdown! So let's guess-timate that surgical masks reduce R by up to 35%, discounted for our uncertainty. (Again, you can challenge our assumptions by turning the sliders up/down)
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<div class="sim">
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<iframe src="sim?stage=int-6a&format=calc" width="285" height="380"></iframe>
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@ -520,7 +518,7 @@ Benefit: Even if it's a 50–50 chance of surgical masks reducing transmission b
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Masks *alone* won't get R < 1. But if handwashing & "Test, Trace, Isolate" only gets us to R = 1.10, having just 2/3 of people wear *cloth* masks would tip that over to R < 1, virus contained!
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Masks *alone* won't get R < 1. But if handwashing & "Test, Trace, Isolate" only gets us to R = 1.10, having just 1/3 of people wear masks would tip that over to R < 1, virus contained!
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**Summer:**
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@ -545,7 +543,7 @@ But we wouldn't have to be 2-months-closed / 1-month-open over & over! Because R
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Here's a simulation a "lazy case" scenario:
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1. Lockdown, then
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2. A moderate amount of hygiene + "Test, Trace, Isolate" + *cloth* "Masks For All", then...
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2. A moderate amount of hygiene & "Test, Trace, Isolate", with a mild amount of "Masks For All", then...
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3. One more "circuit breaker" lockdown before a vaccine's found.
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<div class="sim">
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